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11 - Prophecy

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  06 July 2010

T. W. Körner
Affiliation:
University of Cambridge
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Summary

Coin tossing

In The Napoleon of Notting Hill, Chesterton wrote:

The human race, to which so many of my readers belong, has been playing at children's games from the beginning, and will probably do it till the end, which is a nuisance for the few people who grow up. And one of the games to which it is most attached is called, ‘Keep to-morrow dark,’ and which is also named (by the rustics in Shropshire, I have no doubt) ‘Cheat the Prophet.’ The players listen very carefully and respectfully to all that the clever men have to say about what is to happen in the next generation. The players then wait until all the clever men are dead, and bury them nicely. They then go and do something else. That is all. For a race of simple tastes, however, it is great fun.

There is no headline journalists more enjoy writing or their readers more enjoy reading than ‘Experts get it wrong again’. But, although the future is covered in mist, we may be able to glimpse vague shapes through that mist and our actions should take account of those glimpses.

Consider, for example, the question of who will be president of the United States of America in 9 years' time. Someone who believes that the future is totally unknowable might offer odds of a thousand million to one against us being able to name the future president.

Type
Chapter
Information
Naive Decision Making
Mathematics Applied to the Social World
, pp. 321 - 334
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2008

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  • Prophecy
  • T. W. Körner, University of Cambridge
  • Book: Naive Decision Making
  • Online publication: 06 July 2010
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511755439.012
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  • Prophecy
  • T. W. Körner, University of Cambridge
  • Book: Naive Decision Making
  • Online publication: 06 July 2010
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511755439.012
Available formats
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Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

  • Prophecy
  • T. W. Körner, University of Cambridge
  • Book: Naive Decision Making
  • Online publication: 06 July 2010
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511755439.012
Available formats
×