Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- Introduction
- 1 A day at the races
- 2 The long run
- 3 The vice of gambling and the virtue of insurance
- 4 Passing the time
- 5 A pack of cards
- 6 Other people
- 7 Simple games
- 8 Points of agreement
- 9 Long duels
- 10 A night at the casino
- 11 Prophecy
- 12 Final reflections
- Appendix A The logarithm
- Appendix B Cardano
- Appendix C Huygens's problems
- Appendix D Hints on pronunciation
- Bibliography
- Index
11 - Prophecy
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 06 July 2010
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- Introduction
- 1 A day at the races
- 2 The long run
- 3 The vice of gambling and the virtue of insurance
- 4 Passing the time
- 5 A pack of cards
- 6 Other people
- 7 Simple games
- 8 Points of agreement
- 9 Long duels
- 10 A night at the casino
- 11 Prophecy
- 12 Final reflections
- Appendix A The logarithm
- Appendix B Cardano
- Appendix C Huygens's problems
- Appendix D Hints on pronunciation
- Bibliography
- Index
Summary
Coin tossing
In The Napoleon of Notting Hill, Chesterton wrote:
The human race, to which so many of my readers belong, has been playing at children's games from the beginning, and will probably do it till the end, which is a nuisance for the few people who grow up. And one of the games to which it is most attached is called, ‘Keep to-morrow dark,’ and which is also named (by the rustics in Shropshire, I have no doubt) ‘Cheat the Prophet.’ The players listen very carefully and respectfully to all that the clever men have to say about what is to happen in the next generation. The players then wait until all the clever men are dead, and bury them nicely. They then go and do something else. That is all. For a race of simple tastes, however, it is great fun.
There is no headline journalists more enjoy writing or their readers more enjoy reading than ‘Experts get it wrong again’. But, although the future is covered in mist, we may be able to glimpse vague shapes through that mist and our actions should take account of those glimpses.
Consider, for example, the question of who will be president of the United States of America in 9 years' time. Someone who believes that the future is totally unknowable might offer odds of a thousand million to one against us being able to name the future president.
- Type
- Chapter
- Information
- Naive Decision MakingMathematics Applied to the Social World, pp. 321 - 334Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 2008