As was noted in Chapter 1 the empirical study of trend periods is in need of further analysis. This chapter outlines a phasing of historical growth paths for the period 1856–1973 in Britain, France, Germany, America and the world economy. The chapter deals with output and productivity trends; other aspects will be dealt with in later chapters.

For clarity I shall present the evidence in terms of five case studies; each case study is further divided into two parts, dealing with the pre- and post-1913 eras respectively.

Britain

Pre-1913

Despite the existence of an extensive literature on the theme of pre-1913 British economic growth, a consensus on the phasing of growth does not exist. The existing research has been undertaken on an ad hoc basis, investigating trend periods within a partial perspective. The Kondratieff wave phases of 1850–1873–1896–1913 have been discussed in the literature without any clearly set out theoretical or empirical hypotheses. Both Church's (1975) study of the ‘Mid Victorian Boom’ and Saul's (1969) study of the ‘Great Depression’ have neglected the importance of inter-period comparisons in discussing these phases of growth and have drawn most of their inferences from evidence referring to within-period variations. Long-swing analyses are still based on the work of Cairncross (1953) and Thomas (1954), despite the wider availability of better production data. Recent literature has also drawn attention to the existence of a climacteric stepping down of long-term economic growth, with 1873, 1890 and 1899 chosen as possible transition dates (Aldcroft, 1974; Crafts, 1979; Feinstein et al. 1982; Lewis, 1978).