Economic growth has not been steady over long periods throughout history. This empirical observation, which shall be examined in the chapters that follow, has given rise to a number of frameworks aimed at explaining the nature of non-steady growth. Each of the various approaches emphasises differing phases of growth and, moreover, relies on a differing causal mechanism to explain the movement from one phase to another.

In this chapter I shall discuss three of these approaches; the traverse perspective of growth models, the Kondratieff wave and the Kuznets swing. The aim is to use these ideas as a starting point in the study of historical trend periods.

The traverse perspective

Growth models of the economy generally have been developed in terms of steady-state solutions. The traverse in growth models represents the transition phase from one steady-state growth path to another. Thus, a traverse is a change in the rate of change of an equilibrium growth path, combined with structural changes.

A frequent criticism of neoclassical growth models is that they fail to take account of the real world by imposing the conditions of balanced and steady growth. Hahn and Matthews (1965) observe in their survey of growth theory:

Clearly, traverse analysis allows neoclassical models to break away from many of these restrictive assumptions; providing the emphasis is on the traverse, neither balanced nor steady growth are necessary features of neoclassical models.