Introduction

In this chapter we utilise a geographical information system (GIS) to model the predicted number of visitors to a particular woodland site and test the efficiency of the resultant arrivals function in estimating visits to other sites. This is achieved through a zonal model which estimates visitor arrival rates from areas around a given site, and which is then applied to other sites through the definition of similar zones around them. Findings from our studies of the value of open-access woodland recreation (discussed in Chapter 3) are then applied to our predicted visits surface to obtain valuations of potential demand.

Estimating an arrivals function

Previous studies

We are concerned with estimating overall visit rates which are applicable across populations, rather than being specific to individuals. By definition, conventional ITC valuation studies refer only to site visitors and say little about non-visitors. As a consequence they are unsuited to determining the absolute number of people who will visit a site. Therefore, our visitor arrivals model has to be composed of variables that have relevance across the population and can be readily transferred between sites.

To date there has been relatively little research regarding the level and determinants of visits to woodland in the UK. Furthermore, of those few studies which have examined this issue, most have looked at national recreational demand (Willis and Benson, 1989; Whiteman, 1991) rather than that at any particular forest site.