Despite the contention that risk and uncertainty play an important role in agriculture in North Florida and South Alabama, very little is known about producers' perceptions of risk. This paper describes the procedures used and the results obtained from a statistically random survey of farmers' perceptions of the importance of various sources of risk and alternative risk management practices. Initially, farmers were asked to define risk and then to rank various sources of risk and management responses to risk based on the relative importance of each to their operation. Summary statistics, Chi-square analyses, and logistic regression techniques were used to analyze the data.

This study evaluated implications of increased bollworm problems in a 20-county area of the Texas High Plains relative to cotton yields and economic impact. Results did not indicate a serious effect of bollworms upon lint yield when insecticides were used for control. However, estimated annual reduction in farmer profit due to the bollworm for 1979-81 was over $30 million. Yields were estimated to decline about 300,000 bales without insecticide use and about 30,000 bales with insecticide use. This decline suggests potentially serious implications for the comparative economic position of cotton in this region if insecticide resistance were to develop among insect pests.

This paper examines the impacts of alternative management strategies for the production of alfalfa within the context of a total farm plan. A linear programming model is used to represent a 600-acre farm which can grow either grain crops or alfalfa. Alfalfa production competes with the grain crops for available land, labor, machinery, and field time over a calendar of tillage, planting, cutting, spraying, and harvesting activities. The profitability of an acre of alfalfa and the contribution of alfalfa to net returns for the farm varies quite widely depending on the particular alfalfa management strategy selected.

A hedonic price function is developed for estimating the implicit prices for selected quality characteristics of fresh tomatoes at three points in the marketing season. The estimation of this function, proposed as a method of evaluating changes in the post-harvest system, is accomplished using a flexible functional form. Those quality characteristics that most affect the price of tomatoes can help determine the economic feasibility of alternative handling techniques or new technologies.

This paper analyzes the effects of uncertain soil loss in farm planning models. A disaggregated approach was used because of an interest in examining the impact of probabilistic soil loss constraints on farm level decisionmaking. A stochastic programming model was used to consider different levels of probability of soil loss. Traditional methods of analysis are shown to consistently overestimate net returns.

The Rice Outlook and Situation (RO&S) forecasts were compared to the forecasts of a univariate Box-Jenkins (BJ) model. On balance, the RO&S forecasts had lower mean square forecast errors and lower mean absolute forecast errors than the BJ model forecasts. The differences in the squared and absolute forecast errors were not significant, however. Based on the concept of conditional efficiency as set forth by Granger and Newbold, it was found that the BJ forecasts did not add any information that might improve forecast accuracy beyond what was already incorporated in the RO&S forecasts.

Although annual rainfall in the Southeast is adequate, its distribution is a potential constraint to agricultural production. Farmers require production information concerning efficient use of irrigation technology adapted to regional growing conditions. Selection of optimal position, size, and number of pivots in center pivot irrigation systems poses special problems on small, irregularly shaped fields. In the southeastern United States, field size and shape are often varied and irregular. A mixed integer programming model was constructed to assist in irrigation investment decisions. The model is illustrated using irrigated peanut production in southeast Alabama. Results indicate the importance of economic engineering considerations.

The most useful and practical strategy available for reducing variability of net farm income is ascertained. Of the many risk management tools presently available, five of the most commonly used are simultaneously incorporated in an empirically tested model. Quadratic programming provides the basis for decisionmaking in risk management wherein expected utility is assumed to be a function of the mean and variance of net income. Results demonstrate that farmers can reduce production and price risks when a combination strategy including a diversified crop production plan and participation in the futures market and the Federal Crop Insurance Program (FCIP) is implemented.

An econometric model of planted wheat acreage was estimated for five distinct production regions in the United States. This structural investigation represents an update of previous published work with specific attention given to policy program variables, weather, production cost, risk, market price influences, and program participation. Estimated results indicated regional divergence in responsiveness to government program variables. The most significant divergence occurred in the Cornbelt and Southeast—soft red winter wheat areas. Results indicate that management of the wheat program from the USDA level will contain countervailing production incentives unless these regional characteristics are taken into consideration in policy directives.

This study examines the economic feasibility of storing southeastern U.S. Red Delicious apples under various circumstances. Circumstances encompassed type of storage, potential market share in the storage periods, perceived level of quality, and opportunity cost of storage. Reactive programming was used to allocate shipments throughout the harvest and storage periods. Except for apples harvested in August, storage was found to be economically feasible under all situations studied. The greatest economic benefit to producers was shown to come from the synergistic effect of storage and improvement in perceived quality.

An interregional reactive programming model of the United States dairy industry is used to test the welfare implications of several dairy program changes on milk producers, milk consumers, and taxpayers. The results showed that each of the tested alternatives (price support reduction, price support reduction with frozen minimum Class I price, assessments, and production quotas) could reduce price support expenditures substantially. However, assessments reduced expenditures most effectively in terms of cost to milk producers for the United States generally while price support reduction with frozen minimum Class I price was most efficacious in terms of cost to Southeast producers.

Failure of land markets to account for environmental amenity benefits may lend support to public policies to protect agricultural land. The contingent valuation method is employed to estimate willingness to pay for such amenities in Greenville County, South Carolina. Marginal household amenity benefits were estimated at $.06 per thousand acres using a payment card in a mail survey with 53 percent response. Bid payment vehicle was found not to significantly influence bids received. The informational structure of the contingent market was found to influence valuation responses, reinforcing the hypothesis that respondents react to alternative contingent market structures. The relationship between contingent market structure and directional effects upon responses is an important area for future research.

This paper describes four agribusiness simulators which can be processed on a microcomputer for use in undergraduate and extension teaching. The simulators model the environment in which supermarket chains, farm supply centers, and cooperative and proprietary grain elevators compete for business. Instruction manuals, user's manuals, and a diskette are distributed for each simulator. Each diskette contains programs to enter and edit team decisions, to process decisions and print reports, and to create graphs of team performance. The simulators can be used to teach financial management concepts and techniques, as well as economic principles.