Vaccines are the cornerstone of influenza control policy, but can suffer from several drawbacks. Seasonal influenza vaccines are prone to production problems and low efficacies, while pandemic vaccines are unlikely to be available in time to slow a rapidly spreading global outbreak. Antiviral therapy was found to be beneficial during the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic even with limited use; however, antiviral use has decreased further since then. We sought to determine the role antiviral therapy can play in pandemic and seasonal influenza control using conservative estimates of antiviral efficacy, and to assess if conservative but targeted strategies could be employed to optimize the use of antivirals. Using an age-structured contact network model for an urban population, we compared the transmission-blocking ability of a conservative antiviral therapy strategy to the susceptibility-reducing effects of a robust influenza vaccine. Our results show that while antiviral therapy cannot replace a robust influenza vaccine, it can play a role in reducing attack rates and eliminating outbreaks, and could significantly reduce public health burden when vaccine is either unavailable or ineffective. We also found that antiviral therapy, by treating those who are infected, is naturally a highly optimized strategy, and need not be improved upon with expensive targeted campaigns.

Using surveillance data, we describe the prevalence and characteristics of individuals in New York City (NYC) co-infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and hepatitis B virus (HBV) and/or hepatitis C virus (HCV). Surveillance databases including persons reported to the NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene with HIV, HBV, and HCV by 31 December 2010 and not known to be dead as of 1 January 2000, were matched with 2000–2011 vital statistics mortality data. Of 140 606 persons reported with HIV, 4% were co-infected with HBV only, 15% were co-infected with HCV only, and 1% were co-infected with HBV and HCV. In all groups, 70–80% were male. The most common race/ethnicity and HIV transmission risk groups were non-Hispanic blacks and men who have sex with men (MSM) for HIV/HBV infection, and non-Hispanic blacks, Hispanics, and injection drug users for HIV/HCV and HIV/HBV/HCV infections. The overall age-adjusted 2000–2011 mortality was higher in co-infected than HIV mono-infected individuals. Use of population-based surveillance data provided a comprehensive characterization of HIV co-infection with HBV and HCV. Our findings emphasize the importance of targeting HIV and viral hepatitis testing and prevention efforts to populations at risk for co-infection, and of integrating HIV and viral hepatitis care and testing services.

Persons who develop tuberculosis (TB) may have subtle immune defects that could predispose to other intracellular bacterial infections (ICBIs). We obtained data on TB and five ICBIs (Chlamydia trachomatis, Salmonella spp., Shigella spp., Yersinia spp., Listeria monocytogenes) reported to the Tennessee Department of Health, USA, 2000–2011. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) comparing ICBIs in persons who developed TB and ICBIs in the Tennessee population, adjusted for age, sex, race and ethnicity were estimated. IRRs were not significantly elevated for all ICBIs combined [IRR 0·87, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0·71–1·06]. C. trachomatis rate was lowest in the year post-TB diagnosis (IRR 0·17, 95% CI 0·04–0·70). More Salmonella infections occurred in extrapulmonary TB compared to pulmonary TB patients (IRR 14·3, 95% CI 1·67–122); however, this appeared to be related to HIV co-infection. TB was not associated with an increased risk of other ICBIs. In fact, fewer C. trachomatis infections occurred after recent TB diagnosis. Reasons for this association, including reduced exposure, protection conferred by anti-TB drugs or macrophage activation by Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection warrant further investigation.

A descriptive study was performed between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2011 to estimate the incidence of norovirus outbreaks in hospitals and nursing homes in Catalonia (Spain). Epidemiological surveys were done for each outbreak. Norovirus was confirmed using RT–PCR. The incidence of outbreaks/106 person-years by centre, and the attack rate, were calculated. Statistically significant differences were calculated using odds ratio (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Person-to-person transmission was responsible for 81·5% (22/27) of outbreaks. The incidence in the population was 156·7 outbreaks/106 person-years. The incidence by centre was 1·3% per year and was greater in hospitals (2·6%) than in nursing homes (0·9%) (OR 3·2, 95% CI 1·5–6·9). The global attack rate in residents and staff was 34·7% (816/2348). The mortality rate was 0·25% (2/816). Genogroup GII.4 caused 66·7% of outbreaks. Norovirus GII.4 outbreaks cause significant morbidity affecting both patients and staff.

The aims of this study were to determine the annual incidence of infection with Leptospira interrogans serovar Pomona and/or Leptospira borgpetersenii serovar Hardjo and its association with influenza-like illness (ILI) in meat workers in New Zealand. Sera were collected twice, 50–61 weeks apart, from 592 workers at eight abattoirs slaughtering sheep (n = 4), cattle (n = 2) and deer (n = 2), and tested by the microscopic agglutination test for Hardjo and Pomona. Forty-nine (8·3%) participants either seroconverted or had at least a twofold increased serological titre against either serovar. The worker infection risk was higher in sheep abattoirs (11·9%) than in abattoirs processing deer (0%) or cattle (1·2%) (P < 0·01). The annualized risk of mild (ILI) or severe clinical disease attributable to the two Leptospira serovars was 2·7%. This study has demonstrated that meat workers are at substantial risk of infection and clinical disease, suggesting further investigation of infection sources and preventive measures are warranted.

Presence of Vibrio cholerae serogroups O1 and O139 in the waters of the rural area of Matlab, Bangladesh, was investigated with quantitative measurements performed with a portable flow cytometer. The relevance of this work relates to the testing of a field-adapted measurement protocol that might prove useful for cholera epidemic surveillance and for validation of mathematical models. Water samples were collected from different water bodies that constitute the hydrological system of the region, a well-known endemic area for cholera. Water was retrieved from ponds, river waters, and irrigation canals during an inter-epidemic time period. Each sample was filtered and analysed with a flow cytometer for a fast determination of V. cholerae cells contained in those environments. More specifically, samples were treated with O1- and O139-specific antibodies, which allowed precise flow-cytometry-based concentration measurements. Both serogroups were present in the environmental waters with a consistent dominance of V. cholerae O1. These results extend earlier studies where V. cholerae O1 and O139 were mostly detected during times of cholera epidemics using standard culturing techniques. Furthermore, our results confirm that an important fraction of the ponds’ host populations of V. cholerae are able to self-sustain even when cholera cases are scarce. Those contaminated ponds may constitute a natural reservoir for cholera endemicity in the Matlab region. Correlations of V. cholerae concentrations with environmental factors and the spatial distribution of V. cholerae populations are also discussed.

The survival behaviour of Vibrio cholerae in cholera epidemics, together with its attributes of virulence-associated genes and molecular fingerprints, are significant for managing cholera epidemics. Here, we selected five strains representative of V. cholerae O1 and O139 involved in cholera events, examined their survival capacity in large volumes of water sampled from epidemic sites of a 2005 cholera outbreak, and determined virulence-associated genes and molecular subtype changes of the surviving isolates recovered. The five strains exhibited different survival capacities varying from 17 to 38 days. The virulence-associated genes of the surviving isolates remained unchanged, while their pulsotypes underwent slight variation. In particular, one waterway-isolated strain maintained virulence-associated genes and evolved to share the same pulsotype as patient strains, highlighting its role in the cholera outbreak. The strong survival capacity and molecular attributes of V. cholerae might account for its persistence in environmental waters and the long duration of the cholera outbreak, allowing effective control measures.

A tuberculosis (TB) case was reported May 2008 in Kelowna, British Columbia, leading to a multi-year outbreak in homeless persons. The epidemiological characteristics and social networks of cases are described. Outbreak-related cases were identified from epidemiological information in medical records and from genotyping of TB isolates. Social network information from case interviews were used to identify potential locations of TB transmission, where symptom screening and tuberculin skin testing was conducted. Fifty-two cases that were predominantly male (47/52), Canadian-born (44/50), and were homeless or associated with homeless individuals (42/52) were reported from May 2008 to May 2014. Many isolates (40/49) had partial resistance to isoniazid. Transmission primarily occurred at two homeless shelters, with potential further transmission at sites visited by the general population. TB outbreaks in homeless populations can occur in small, low-incidence cities. Social network information helped prioritize sites for TB screening, thereby improving detection of persons with TB disease or latent infection for treatment.

Although rare, typhoid fever cases acquired in the United States continue to be reported. Detection and investigation of outbreaks in these domestically acquired cases offer opportunities to identify chronic carriers. We searched surveillance and laboratory databases for domestically acquired typhoid fever cases, used a space–time scan statistic to identify clusters, and classified clusters as outbreaks or non-outbreaks. From 1999 to 2010, domestically acquired cases accounted for 18% of 3373 reported typhoid fever cases; their isolates were less often multidrug-resistant (2% vs. 15%) compared to isolates from travel-associated cases. We identified 28 outbreaks and two possible outbreaks within 45 space–time clusters of ⩾2 domestically acquired cases, including three outbreaks involving ⩾2 molecular subtypes. The approach detected seven of the ten outbreaks published in the literature or reported to CDC. Although this approach did not definitively identify any previously unrecognized outbreaks, it showed the potential to detect outbreaks of typhoid fever that may escape detection by routine analysis of surveillance data. Sixteen outbreaks had been linked to a carrier. Every case of typhoid fever acquired in a non-endemic country warrants thorough investigation. Space–time scan statistics, together with shoe-leather epidemiology and molecular subtyping, may improve outbreak detection.

Blood and oral fluid (OF) samples were collected from 103 suspected measles cases between February and November 2010 during a nationwide measles outbreak in Zimbabwe. Siemens measles IgM enzyme immunoassay (EIA) on serum, Microimmune measles IgM capture EIA on OF, real-time haemagglutinin (H) gene PCR and nested nucleocapsid (N) gene PCR on OF were performed, confirming 75 measles cases. These samples were then used to evaluate a newly developed point of care test (POCT) for measles and determine its potential for identifying measles cases in outbreaks. After performing POCTs on OF samples, nucleic acid was extracted from the used test strips and the measles H and N genes amplified by RT–PCR. The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of the POCT for IgM in OF was 75·0% [95% confidence interval (CI) 63·4–84·5], 96·2% (95% CI 80·4–99·9), 98·2% (95% CI 90·3–100) and 58·1% (95% CI 42·1–73·0), respectively. The N gene sequences showed high level of agreement between original OF and corresponding POCT strips. Measles genotype B3 was identified in all cases. We conclude that the measles POCT has the potential to be used, at the point of contact, in outbreak situations and provide molecular characterization of the virus at a later date.

A large-scale mass vaccination campaign was carried out in Java, Indonesia in an attempt to control outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in backyard flocks and commercial smallholder poultry. Sero-monitoring was conducted in mass vaccination and control areas to assess the proportion of the target population with antibodies against HPAI and Newcastle disease (ND). There were four rounds of vaccination, and samples were collected after each round resulting in a total of 27 293 samples. Sampling was performed irrespective of vaccination status. In the mass vaccination areas, 20–45% of poultry sampled had a positive titre to H5 after each round of vaccination, compared to 2–3% in the control group. In the HPAI + ND vaccination group, 12–25% of the population had positive ND titres, compared to 5–13% in the areas without ND vaccination. The level of seropositivity varied by district, age of the bird, and species (ducks vs. chickens).

As influenza vaccination is now widely recommended, randomized clinical trials are no longer ethical in many populations. Therefore, observational studies on patients seeking medical care for acute respiratory illnesses (ARIs) are a popular option for estimating influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE). We developed a probability model for evaluating and comparing bias and precision of estimates of VE against symptomatic influenza from two commonly used case-control study designs: the test-negative design and the traditional case-control design. We show that when vaccination does not affect the probability of developing non-influenza ARI then VE estimates from test-negative design studies are unbiased even if vaccinees and non-vaccinees have different probabilities of seeking medical care against ARI, as long as the ratio of these probabilities is the same for illnesses resulting from influenza and non-influenza infections. Our numerical results suggest that in general, estimates from the test-negative design have smaller bias compared to estimates from the traditional case-control design as long as the probability of non-influenza ARI is similar among vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals. We did not find consistent differences between the standard errors of the estimates from the two study designs.

Our goal was to identify climate variables and management practices associated with the presence of E. coli O157 in rangeland cow-calf operations located in a major leafy green production region in the California Central Coast. E. coli O157 was present in 2·6% (68/2654) of faecal, 1·5% (3/204) of water and 1·1% (1/93) of sediment samples collected on eight ranches over 2.5 years. Five (62·5%) ranches were positive at least once during the study. The odds of detecting E. coli O157 in faecal samples was higher during periods of higher maximum soil temperature, higher maximum relative humidity, and larger herd sizes, but decreased as wind speed increased. Molecular subtyping of isolates from cattle faeces and streams/sediments suggested minimal movement of strains between ranches. The findings suggest that E. coli O157 prevalence is relatively low on cow-calf ranches in this region, spatially constrained, but may vary by weather conditions and herd size.

On 23 May 2011, CDC identified a multistate cluster of Salmonella Heidelberg infections and two multidrug-resistant (MDR) isolates from ground turkey retail samples with indistinguishable pulsed-field gel electrophoresis patterns. We defined cases as isolation of outbreak strains in persons with illness onset between 27 February 2011 and 10 November 2011. Investigators collected hypothesis-generating questionnaires and shopper-card information. Food samples from homes and retail outlets were collected and cultured. We identified 136 cases of S. Heidelberg infection in 34 states. Shopper-card information, leftover ground turkey from a patient's home containing the outbreak strain and identical antimicrobial resistance profiles of clinical and retail samples pointed to plant A as the source. On 3 August, plant A recalled 36 million pounds of ground turkey. This outbreak increased consumer interest in MDR Salmonella infections acquired through United States-produced poultry and played a vital role in strengthening food safety policies related to Salmonella and raw ground poultry.

We studied the spatial trend of norovirus (NoV) epidemics using sentinel gastroenteritis surveillance data for patients aged <15 years (n = 140) in the Tokyo area for the 2006–2007 to 2008–2009 seasons utilizing the kriging method of geographical information system (GIS). This is the first study of the spreading pattern of NoV epidemics using sentinel surveillance data. Correlations of sentinel cases between the seasons and with demographic data were examined to identify the trend and related factors. A similar pattern of diffusion was observed over the seasons, and its mean correlation between seasons was significantly high. A higher number of cases were found in the peripheral area, which surrounds the most populated central area, and showed a correlation with the ratio of the children population (r = 0·321, P < 0·01) and the ratio of residents in larger families (r = 0·263, P < 0·01). While NoV susceptibility remained, the results suggest a transmission route in the local community as a possible epidemic factor. Prevention with focus on the peripheral area is desirable.

The objective of this study was to estimate the sensitivity and specificity of a culture method and a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) method for detection of two Campylobacter species: C. jejuni and C. coli. Data were collected during a 3-year survey of UK broiler flocks, and consisted of parallel sampling of caeca from 436 batches of birds by both PCR and culture. Batches were stratified by season (summer/non-summer) and whether they were the first depopulation of the flock, resulting in four sub-populations. A Bayesian approach in the absence of a gold standard was adopted, and the sensitivity and specificity of the PCR and culture for each Campylobacter subtype was estimated, along with the true C. jejuni and C. coli prevalence in each sub-population. Results indicated that the sensitivity of the culture method was higher than that of PCR in detecting both species when the samples were derived from populations infected with at most one species of Campylobacter. However, from a mixed population, the sensitivity of culture for detecting both C. jejuni or C. coli is reduced while PCR is potentially able to detect both species, although the total probability of correctly identifying at least one species by PCR is similar to that of the culture method.

Patagonia in southern South America is among the few world regions where direct human impact is still limited but progressively increasing, mainly represented by tourism, farming, fishing and mining activities. The sanitary condition of Patagonian wildlife is unknown, in spite of being critical for the assessment of anthropogenic effects there. The aim of this study was the characterization of Salmonella enterica strains isolated from wild colonies of Magellanic penguins (Spheniscus magellanicus) located in Magdalena Island and Otway Sound, in Chilean Patagonia. Eight isolates of Salmonella were found, belonging to Agona and Enteritidis serotypes, with an infection rate of 0·38%. Resistance to ampicillin, cefotaxime, ceftiofur and tetracycline antimicrobials were detected, and some of these strains showed genotypic similarity with Salmonella strains isolated from humans and gulls, suggesting inter-species transmission cycles and strengthening the role of penguins as sanitary sentinels in the Patagonian ecosystem.

We studied the temporal and spatial patterns of leptospirosis, its association with flooding and animal census data in Thailand. Flood data from 2010 to 2012 were extracted from spatial information taken from satellite images. The incidence rate ratio (IRR) was used to determine the relationship between spatio-temporal flooding patterns and the number of human leptospirosis cases. In addition, the area of flood coverage, duration of waterlogging, time lags between flood events, and a number of potential animal reservoirs were considered in a sub-analysis. There was no significant temporal trend of leptospirosis over the study period. Statistical analysis showed an inconsistent relationship between IRR and flooding across years and regions. Spatially, leptospirosis occurred repeatedly and predominantly in northeastern Thailand. Our findings suggest that flooding is less influential in leptospirosis transmission than previously assumed. High incidence of the disease in the northeastern region is explained by the fact that agriculture and animal farming are important economic activities in this area. The periodic rise and fall of reported leptospirosis cases over time might be explained by seasonal exposure from rice farming activities performed during the rainy season when flood events often occur. We conclude that leptospirosis remains an occupational disease in Thailand.

To investigate whether single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in Toll-like receptors (TLRs) 3 and 9 affect the susceptibility of hepatitis B virus (HBV) intrauterine transmission, we genotyped 399 neonates for TLR3 (c.1377C/T) [rs3775290] and TLR9 (G2848A) [rs352140] using polymerase chain reaction–restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR–RFLP). A femoral venous blood sample was obtained from these subjects. Hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) and hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) were measured using chemiluminescence immunoassay kits and hepatitis B virus DNA (HBV DNA) levels were determined by fluorescence quantitative PCR assay. Our results showed that when adjusting for maternal HBeAg, maternal HBV DNA and mode of delivery, allele ‘T’ for SNP c.1377C/T was significantly associated with HBV intrauterine transmission susceptibility [adjusted OR (aOR) 0·55, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0·34–0·91, P = 0·020] and the TT genotype decreased the risk of HBV intrauterine transmission (aOR 0·28, 95% CI 0·09–0·91, P = 0·033). Allele ‘A’ for SNP G2848A was significantly associated with HBV intrauterine transmission susceptibility (aOR 0·62, 95% CI 0·39–1·00, P = 0·048) and the GA genotype protected neonates from HBV intrauterine transmission (aOR 0·45, 95% CI 0·22–0·93, P = 0·031). The TLR3 (c.1377C/T) and TLR9 (G2848A) polymorphisms may be relevant for HBV intrauterine transmission susceptibility, although the reduction in risk to HBV intrauterine transmission is modest and the biological mechanism of the observed association merits further investigation.

There is interest in the potential of companion animal surveillance to provide data to improve pet health and to provide early warning of environmental hazards to people. We implemented a companion animal surveillance system in Calgary, Alberta and the surrounding communities. Informatics technologies automatically extracted electronic medical records from participating veterinary practices and identified cases of enteric syndrome in the warehoused records. The data were analysed using time-series analyses and a retrospective space–time permutation scan statistic. We identified a seasonal pattern of reports of occurrences of enteric syndromes in companion animals and four statistically significant clusters of enteric syndrome cases. The cases within each cluster were examined and information about the animals involved (species, age, sex), their vaccination history, possible exposure or risk behaviour history, information about disease severity, and the aetiological diagnosis was collected. We then assessed whether the cases within the cluster were unusual and if they represented an animal or public health threat. There was often insufficient information recorded in the medical record to characterize the clusters by aetiology or exposures. Space–time analysis of companion animal enteric syndrome cases found evidence of clustering. Collection of more epidemiologically relevant data would enhance the utility of practice-based companion animal surveillance.