To attempt to predict the future of light and sporting aviation in Britain is not possible without a study of how it has arrived at where it is today. How, in the early days, it was the enterprise of the individual enthusiast which was the driving force in all aviation progress, to the present where ‘private’ flying, in all its many forms, has been massively outgrown by commercial airline operations.

The 1903 flights of the Wrights did not appear out of the blue. They were just one more exciting happening at a time of great engineering ventures. Trains were running regularly all over Britain, the internal combustion engine was reliable enough to power private motor cars and city buses. Gliders had been successfully flown, telephones were in regular use. There were passenger ships powered by 70,000hp engines crossing the Atlantic at speeds of 25kt. The world was wide open for anything new and in 1903 aviation quickly took pride of place.

Light aviation was the name given to ‘amateur’ flying in the 1920s, to distinguish it from military and commercial aviation. It is still the valuable entry into aviation generally, as it is a relatively inexpensive way to try out new ideas. But to fulfil its potential it has to remain attractive and affordable, particularly to the young. This paper endeavours to speculate how light aviation will fare during aviation’s second century in Britain - or at least for the next 20-30 years, in an increasingly complex world in which global accessibility is commonplace.