In the previous chapter we summarized the stages associated with the evolution of territorial disputes and the corresponding set of policy options from which state leaders can choose. In this and the next three chapters we present a series of models that attempt to explain which diplomatic and military policies will be adopted by political leaders in territorial disputes. The thrust of the theoretical analysis is directed at the domestic level, particularly in Chapters 4 through 6. In this chapter, however, we develop a model of international politics as a starting point for theoretical analysis. For each model presented in this and subsequent chapters, the underlying theoretical foundations are first described and then a number of hypotheses are proposed and discussed. Each chapter concludes with a discussion of how the hypotheses will be operationalized for empirical testing.

A model of international politics

In this model the explanation of the foreign policy choices of state leaders centers on calculations about international political and military conditions. We begin with a model of international politics because each of the domestic-based models in Chapters 4 through 6 must be placed in a broader international strategic context. Before turning to each of these domestic models, it is necessary to identify the general incentives and constraints on decision-makers that are associated with pursuing foreign policy goals in an anarchic international system.