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In a novel experimental design, we investigate the impact of exogenous variation in economic growth and inequality on trusting behaviour. In addition to a control with uniform endowment, three treatments were implemented where the initial endowment is exogenously changed to produce inequality and three growth scenarios where average endowments increase (boom), decrease (recession) or remain unaltered (steady state). We find that aggregate trust and trustworthiness both decrease due to the induced heterogeneity in endowments. Also, trust (but not trustworthiness) decreases (increases) due to recessions (booms). The impact of inequality on trust is greatest in a recession and absent in a boom. These aggregate effects are driven mainly by the reactions of those who, after treatment, end up at the bottom of the endowment distribution. These findings are close in sign and in the order of magnitude to those reported in observational studies on the relationship between growth, inequality and trust.
The recession of the 1970s saw the advent of financialised capitalism and a renewed focus on cost containment in health care. At the same time, new identity politics had displaced the old politics of distribution associated with the welfare state. The political contraction of the welfare state, together with the spread of ‘precarity’ in employment via zero-hours contracts, and the undermining of work conditions, sick pay and pensions have been facilitated by a recasting of personal responsibility. Strong flows of biological, psychological, social, cultural, spatial, symbolic and, especially, material asset flows are conducive to good health and longevity, while weak flows are associated with poor health and premature death. Ideological assaults on the welfare state have been major contributors to growing material and social inequalities. Financial capitalism has witnessed an accelerating rate of mental as well as physical health problems in line with the fracturing of society. The period 1960–2010 set the scene for what many at the time of writing (2020) see as a severe crisis in welfare care.
The arrival of 19,000 Vietnamese ‘boat people’ after 1979 came after nearly two decades of immigration restriction, when Britain was entering its deepest recession for fifty years and just as Thatcher’s New Right government’s marketisation and anti-statist policies were being enacted. If this signalled new and significant challenges facing these refugees to Britain, this chapter shows that the reception and resettlement of refugees from Vietnam also saw a number of significant continuities with earlier periods. Internationally, this included the continued importance of colonial and Cold War geopolitical considerations, which pushed Britain into reluctantly participating in the UNHCR-led Vietnamese resettlement programme. Domestically the reception programme emphasised the ongoing importance of voluntary action and revealed the persistence of housing problems, poverty and racism for the new arrivals. This all took place against the backdrop of the continued emergence of an ever more diverse – ‘multicultural’ – society where the state and refugee agencies alike were being reshaped by their own increasingly heterogeneous workforces. And yet, despite this apparent new openness, educational and linguistic disadvantages of the refugees themselves collided with limited state support and high levels of unemployment to ensure that the Vietnamese were often only able to establish lives for themselves at the margins of British society.
This study assesses the impact of South Carolina’s Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program, Family Independence (FI), on the longitudinal earnings of three cohorts of new entrants who entered the study before, at the beginning of, and at the height of the 2007-2009 recession. Applicants who began the application process but did not enroll in TANF were propensity-score matched to entrants by background characteristics including pre-intervention earnings history, and served as the comparison group. We constructed a latent growth curve model to test whether earnings histories were similar for the program and comparison groups up until FI intake, to estimate program impact by comparing post-intake earnings of program participants to those of the comparison group, and to determine the statistical significance of cohort differences in program impact. The findings showed FI had a positive impact on the earnings of participants before the recession. The effect became weaker during the state’s period of rising unemployment, and disappeared during the worst economic recession in decades. This study demonstrates the usefulness of longitudinal administrative data, propensity score matching, and latent growth modeling techniques for evaluating the impact of program interventions.
COVID-19 is expected to radically alter higher education in the United States and to further limit the availability of tenure-track academic positions. How has the pandemic and its associated fallout affected doctoral students’ career aspirations and priorities? We investigate this question by comparing responses to a PhD career survey prior to and following significant developments in the pandemic. We find little evidence that the pandemic caused substantial shifts in PhD students’ aspirations and priorities. However, some differences emerge when considering later dates in our survey period, particularly among more senior students who express a greater interest in some non-academic careers and job characteristics. Contrary to expectation, we also find evidence that the pandemic improved some students’ perceptions of their academic departments. In our conclusion, we speculate whether steps taken by the comparatively well-resourced institution that we study helped to mitigate some of the more negative consequences of the pandemic.
This chapter examines a number of postapocalyptic Irish films produced and released in the aftermath of the collapse of the Celtic Tiger economy in Ireland. It considers the ways in which three of these films in particular, Conor Horgan’s One Hundred Mornings (2009), Stephen Fingleton’s The Survivalist (2015), and David Freyne’s The Cured (2017), represent both the state of the nation in the wake of fiscal catastrophe and its future self-projections: the “post” of “postapocalypse.” The films depict bleak presents, clearly reflecting the socioeconomic context of recession and austerity in which they were made. Yet they also offer bleak futures, with limited potential for transformation or growth. The sites of resistance to neoliberal dystopia that emerge within the films, especially those based on reconstruction of a premodern, pastoral community as an ethical alternative to capitalist subjectivities (a key signifier of the postapocalyptic genre), are profoundly ambivalent and contingent. Thus, the chapter argues, the postapocalyptic cycle of Irish cinema represents a key cultural engagement with the economic discourses of recovery and restoration that emerged almost simultaneously with discourses of crisis in Ireland.
A central bank is expected to produce results that are generally beneficial to the people to whom (through parliament) it is accountable. In the late twentieth century, the belief that monetary policy was a tool in fighting short-run economic problems gave way to thinking about monetary stability as providing a framework within which better informed judgements about long-run decisions could be made. The period is punctuated by two traumatic recessions. The early 1980s collapse in large part was the intentional result of a radical change in macro-economic strategy; the second was a product of the aftermath of a loose money period with excessive credit growth and then a collapse of a housing bubble. Both occurred in a wider international economic setting: in the early 1980s in the wake of the second oil price shock and of the 1979 anti-inflationary turn in US monetary policy; in the early 1990s the responses to the fiscal and monetary shock of German unification, a US slowdown and a new oil price spike after the first Gulf War. In both cases, the UK output performance was significantly poorer than that of other major industrial countries.
In October 1990, after a sustained campaign from the Treasury, the UK joined the European Monetary System’s Exchange Rate Mechanism. The move was heavily supported by Leigh-Pemberton, who persuaded the US central banker, Alan Greenspan, to persuade Margaret Thatcher that the ERM was a modern version of the nineteenth century gold standard. UK entry into the EMS ERM was accompanied by an interest rate cut, but the consequences of German unification and of German interest rate moves led to tightening of monetary policy at a moment of UK recession. In September 1992, the UK’s exchange rate became unsustainable as very large speculative flows bet on a UK exit from the mechanism (September 16). The result was initially seen as a massive humiliation for the UK and its monetary policy-makers, Black Wednesday, but quite quickly opinion shifted to considering it as a liberation that allowed policy reform, White Wednesday. The UK’s ERM experience thus became a game-changer in thinking about monetary policy and exchange rates.
After the chronic political instability that marked the conservative collapse and then the feverish pace of the truncated Whitlam regime, the ensuing years present an outward appearance of equilibrium. Between 1975 and 1991 there was just one change of government, and two prime ministers held office for roughly equal terms. Both in their own ways were striving for the security the electorate desired, and both held to the middle ground. Yet in the circumstances that now prevailed there could be no security without upsetting the ingrained habits of the past. One prime minister preferred confrontation and the other consensus as the way to bring change, but the changes were never sufficient. There was always a need to go further, to abandon yet another outmoded practice and make additional improvements. The first of the leaders was Malcolm Fraser, who headed a Liberal–National Country Party coalition from 1975 to 1983. In 1983 the voters rejected him for a new Labor leader, Bob Hawke. Both leaders searched for solutions. In the absence of older certainties, governments sought to restore national cohesion and purpose. Most of all, they tried to repair an economy that no longer provided reliable growth and regular employment.
The worldwide economic crisis of the last decade, and still unresolved, led to a great recession involving all major economies. Since economic factors may influence mental wellbeing, not surprisingly a rise in poor mental health was observed in different countries, while representing a great challenge to psychiatric interventions. This paper aims at reviewing the available English literature focusing on the impact of the current economic crisis on mental health, with a special focus on depression and suicide. Available studies indicate that consequences of economic crisis, such as unemployment, increased workload or work reorganization, and reduced staff and wages, may constitute important stressing factors with a negative impact on mental health. Although data are not easily comparable in different countries, depression seems to be the most common psychiatric disorders especially in middle-aged men. Even suicide rates seem to be increased in men, mainly in countries with no public welfare or poor family relationships. All these findings require a careful attention from both governments that cut resources on public health instead of investing in it, and psychiatric associations that should implement appropriate strategies to face and to manage this sort of depression epidemic driven by economic crisis. Again, as available data suggest that the impact of the crisis might have been attenuated in countries with higher spending in social protection, they clearly urge policy makers to take into account possible health externalities associated to inadequate social protection systems.
Chapter 11 covers the period from the DNVP’s resignation from the first Luther cabinet in October 1925 to its reentry into the national government in January 1927. In particular, this chapter examines the deteriorating situation in the German countryside and increased pressure from organized agriculture for the DNVP to rejoin the national government in order to protect the domestic market against agricultural imports from abroad. Industry, too, had become frustrated with the DNVP’s absence in the national government and intensified its pressure on the party for a reassessment of its coalition strategy. But the patriotic Right – and particularly the Stahlhelm, which had fallen more and more under the influence of Theodor Duesterberg and the militantly anti-Weimar elements on its right wing – strongly resisted any move that might presage the DNVP’s return to the government. Shocked by the impressive showing of middle-class splinter parties in the Saxon state elections in late October 1926, the DNVP responded to overtures from the DVP and Center to explore the possibility of reorganizing the government and entered into negotiations that ended with its entry into the fourth Marx cabinet in January 1927.
The association between economic crises and mental health problems can be attributed to a number of factors. Among these, age seems to be an important determinant.
The aim of this study was to assess whether mental health of the Portuguese population following the onset of the 2008 recession, differs by age groups.
A follow-up study (2015) on the population aged 18 to > 65 years old, using the National Mental Health Survey (n = 911). The age-group prevalence of mental health distress assessed by the ten-item Kessler's Psychological Distress Scale (K10) was calculated using Chi2 statistics and mental distress as a categorical variable (P < 0.05).
Mean mental distress score differed significantly according to age group, χ2(3) = 10.684, P < = 0.05. The results showed that the older groups (50–64 and 65 = years old) were more frequently under mental distress (17–19%) compared to younger people (18–49 = years old), which were less likely to report being distressed (8–12%).
Age seems to be an important determinant of distress levels during the economic crisis in Portugal. Older adults reported to be more distressed compared to younger individuals. There are several hypotheses for a differential expression of psychological distress between age groups such as working status and retirement, which can express differential access to coping resources under such contextual negative pressure of economic recession. Further research on age groups is thus needed to better understand how recession generates adverse effects on mental well-being.
Disclosure of interest
The authors have not supplied their declaration of competing interest.
Discussions about the state of Irish fiction during and after the Celtic Tiger often centred on the issue of cliché, as detractors criticised writers for rehearsing timeworn tropes instead of addressing the vertiginous upheavals of the boom and bust. This chapter considers the gendered and generic underpinnings of that claim. More than an aesthetic pitfall, cliché serves as a constitutive feature of post-Celtic Tiger women’s fiction. In Anne Enright’s The Forgotten Waltz (2011) and Tana French’s Broken Harbor (2012), narrators draw upon conventions derived from post-war genre fiction in order to reinforce fraying narratives of bourgeois happiness and success. While cliché provides temporary narrative and affective ballast amid recession, it also enmeshes women novelists within ongoing debates about the value of genre in an evolving literary marketplace.
The Introduction provides a guided tour of the content of the book, highlighting its main themes and historical sequences of crises and slumps. It discusses the frequency and intensity of recessions; the relationship between war and recessions; the impact of hyperinflation on economic activity; the role of currency crashes, debt, and macroeconomic crises on output; and the role played by populist political cycles in producing severe economic contractions.
Chapter 3 studies the impact of World War I and World War II on aggregate economic activity in the countries engaged in these two armed conflicts. The chapter shows a variety of effects (stimulus, slump, economic disintegration) and seeks to explain many contributing factor (including levels of defense spending) in generating these different outcomes. The chapter also examines the causes and consequences of hyperinflation in Austria, Hungary, Germany, Poland, and Soviet Russia in the first half of the 1920s.
This chapter summarizes the main episodes of output contraction and crises across subsequent decades and relevant sub-periods in the long twentieth century. It interprets the main findings of the book and draws lessons for the design and implementation of policies that can be effective to anticipate and cope with macrocrises and main recessions.
The 2008 economic recession was associated with an increase in suicide internationally. Studies have focused on the impact in the general population with little consideration of the effect on people with a mental illness.
To investigate suicide trends related to the recession in mental health patients in England.
Using regression models, we studied suicide trends in mental health patients in England before, during and after the recession and examined the demographic and clinical characteristics of the patients. We used data from the National Confidential Inquiry into Suicide and Safety in Mental Health, a national data-set of all suicide deaths in the UK that includes detailed clinical information on those seen by services in the last 12 months before death.
Between 2000 and 2016, there were 21 224 suicide deaths by patients aged 16 or over. For male patients, following a steady fall of 0.5% per quarter before the recession (quarterly percent change (QPC) 2000–2009 –0.46%, 95% CI –0.66 to –0.27), suicide rates showed an upward trend during the recession (QPC 2009–2011 2.37%, 95% CI –0.22 to 5.04). Recession-related rises in suicide were found in men aged 45–54 years, those who were unemployed or had a diagnosis of substance dependence/misuse. Between 2012 and 2016 there was a decrease in suicide in male patients despite an increasing number of patients treated. No significant recession-related trends were found in women.
Recession-associated increases in suicide were seen in male mental health patients as well as the male general population, with those in mid-life at particular risk. Support and targeted interventions for patients with financial difficulties may help reduce the risk at times of economic hardship. Factors such as drug and alcohol misuse also need to be considered. Recent decreases in suicide may be related to an improved economic context or better mental healthcare.
Declaration of interest
N.K. is supported by Greater Manchester Mental Health NHS Foundation Trust. L.A. chairs the National Suicide Prevention Strategy Advisory Group at the Department of Health (of which N.K. is also a member) and is a non-executive Director for the Care Quality Commission. N.K. chairs the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) depression in adults guideline and was a topic expert member for the NICE suicide prevention guideline.
We aimed at analysing changes in consumption of selected food groups in the Portuguese population before and after the Great Recession, which hit the country between 2008 and 2013.
We used pooled cross-sectional data from the Portuguese National Health Interview Surveys of 2005/2006 and 2014. We modelled the probability of consumption of soup, fish, meat, potatoes/rice/pasta, bread, legumes, fruit, vegetables and sweets/desserts, as a function of the year, controlling for age, sex and education, using logistic regressions. Then, we stratified the analysis by age group and education level. Analyses were adjusted for survey weights.
Portugal (2005/2006 to 2014).
Adults (n 43273) aged 25–79 years.
From 2005/2006 to 2014, there was a significantly lower consumption of fish, soup, fruit and vegetables. Conversely, the consumption of legumes and sweets/desserts was significantly higher in 2014. The changes in the selected food groups were consistent across most education levels. Among people aged 65 years or above, there were no significant changes in most foods, except an increase in the consumption of legumes and sweets/desserts. In contrast, people aged 25–39 and 40–64 years significantly decreased their intakes of fish and soup and increased their consumption of sweets/desserts.
The consistent results across education levels suggest that changes in dietary habits are not linked to the economic downturn. By contrast, our findings suggest a shift away from foods commonly linked to the Mediterranean diet, particularly among younger people.
This article uses historical US inflation data covering over two centuries to examine the impact of the establishment of the US Federal Reserve on average US inflation and inflation uncertainty. We find that the founding of the Fed is associated with higher average US inflation and lower inflation uncertainty. Critically, these results are not driven by the post-1980 period, where the Fed policy is characterised by the dual mandate. Other important results are that the gold standard period is associated with both lower inflation and inflation uncertainty, and that banking and stock market crises are a positive determinant of inflation uncertainty and perhaps inflation. World Wars I and II and the US Civil War are associated with both higher inflation and higher inflation uncertainty. In addition, we find that the central bank has responded to increasing inflation uncertainty in a stabilising manner in support of the Holland hypothesis.
Consumers in the UK responded to the rapid increases in food prices between 2007 and 2009 partly by reducing the amount of food energy bought. Household food and drink waste has also decreased since 2007. The present study explored the combined effects of reductions in food purchases and waste on estimated food energy intakes and dietary energy density.
The amount of food energy purchased per adult equivalent was calculated from Kantar Worldpanel household food and drink purchase data for 2007 and 2012. Food energy intakes were estimated by adjusting purchase data for food and drink waste, using waste factors specific to the two years and scaled for household size.
Households in Scotland (n 2657 in 2007; n 2841 in 2012).
The amount of food energy purchased decreased between 2007 and 2012, from 8·6 to 8·2 MJ/adult equivalent per d (P<0·001). After accounting for the decrease in food waste, estimated food energy intake was not significantly different (7·3 and 7·2 MJ/adult equivalent per d for 2007 and 2012, respectively; P=0·186). Energy density of foods purchased increased slightly from 700 to 706 kJ/100 g (P=0·010).
While consumers in Scotland reduced the amount of food energy that they purchased between 2007 and 2012, this was balanced by reductions in household food and drink waste over the same time, resulting in no significant change in net estimated energy intake of foods brought into the home.