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This chapter examines relationships between demographic change and economic growth in the period 1700–1870. Traditional models of the demographic transition assumed that economic growth drove declines in mortality and fertility. However, such models cannot account for some of the main features of the transition. These include the early onset of initial mortality declines, widespread rises in fertility, and the weak correspondence between mortality levels and individual or national income at the beginning of the transition. Examination of pre-transitional demographic regimes indicates that mortality often rose with increasing urbanization and globalization, even as famine disappeared, and that social status gradients in survival were rare. Moreover, fertility was regulated, either within marriage or by limitations on marriage, in most societies, in contrast to the Malthusian view that mortality was the dominant form of population regulation. Early declines in major epidemic diseases allowed more modern gradients of health for wealth to emerge, and we argue that the causal relationships between economic growth and human capital were bi-directional, and driven in the early stages by mortality improvements. However, early gains in longevity were generally accompanied by rising fertility, leading to unprecedented population growth and unfavourable dependency ratios during the early phases of economic development.
The Ibsen play that most often led to problems with the theatre censor was Ghosts. This play, partly as a result of censorship, also became closely associated with the European independent theatre movement. The most famous censorship episode occurred when the newly formed Independent Theatre in London wanted to produce the play in March 1891 and realized that this could not be done without forming a private club. The result was a succès de scandale, fierce criticism and abuse from conservative critics. The play was not licensed in Britain until 1914, and, due to the longevity of the British censorship institution, new stage translations of Ibsen’s plays had to be assessed by the censor’s readers all the way until the abolition of the theatre censorship in 1969. From the beginning, Ibsen may have benefited from a somewhat laxer and less centralized censorship system in Scandinavia. When he started writing his most controversial plays, he was also an established author at home, enjoying considerable status. In addition to this, his plays appeared first as books, thus putting a certain pressure on the censorship simply by being available. This chapter also considers the censorship laws and practices in America, Germany, France and Russia. It shows how opponents of censorship all over Europe associated themselves with Ibsen.
Psychosocial factors may influence mortality and morbidity after coronary bypass surgery (CABG), but it is unclear when, post-surgery, they best predict the outcome, if they interact, or whether results differ for men and women.
This prospective, observational study assessed depression symptoms, social support, marital status, household responsibility, functional impairment, mortality and need for further coronary procedures over 14 years of follow-up. Data were collected in-hospital post-CABG and at home 1-year later. Mortality and subsequent cardiac procedure data were extracted from a Cardiac Registry.
Of 296 baseline participants, 78% (43% were women) completed data at 1-year post-CABG. Long-term survival was shorter with 1-year depression and lower household responsibility but that was not true for the measures taken at baseline [HR for depression = 1.27; 95% CI 1.02–1.59 v. 0.99 (0.78–1.25), and HR = 0.71; 95% CI 0.52–0.97 v. 0.97 (0.80–1.16)] for household responsibility. An interaction between depression symptoms and social support at year 1 [χ2 (11) = 111.05, p < 0.001] revealed a greater hazard of mortality d with increased depression only at mean (HR = 1.67; 95% CI 1.21–2.26) and high social support (HR = 2.23; 95% CI 1.46–3.40). Depression also accounted for increased event recurrence. There were no significant interactions of sex with medical long-term outcomes.
In a sex-balanced sample, depression and household responsibility measured at 1-year post-CABG were associated with significant variance in unadjusted and adjusted predictor models of long-term mortality whereas the same indices determined right after the procedure were not significant predictors.
Treatment of locally advanced hypopharyngeal cancer can cause significant morbidity and late toxicity. Pharyngo-laryngo-oesophagectomy can achieve adequate surgical margins, but data on survival and functional outcome are limited, especially in Wales. This study aimed to describe mortality, morbidity and functional outcome following pharyngo-laryngo-oesophagectomy in a Welsh population.
This study was a retrospective case note review of pharyngo-laryngo-oesophagectomy cases in Wales over 12 years.
Fifteen patients underwent pharyngo-laryngo-oesophagectomy; all but one underwent gastric pull-up. Median survival and disease-free survival were 17 months (range, 2–53 months) and 14 months. Censored 3-month, 1-year and 3-year survival was 93, 71 and 50 per cent, respectively. Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events grading of long-term dysphagia was 1 in 58 per cent, 2 in 33 per cent and 3 in 8 per cent, and 87.5 per cent achieved a ‘moderate’ or ‘good’ voice rehabilitation.
These results demonstrate favourable survival and reasonable functional outcome following pharyngo-laryngo-oesophagectomy, suggesting pharyngo-laryngo-oesophagectomy should be considered in all appropriate surgical candidates.
Delirium is a frequent complication in advanced cancer patients, among whom it is frequently underdiagnosed and inadequately treated. To date, evidence on risk factors and the prognostic impact of delirium on outcomes remains sparse in this patient population.
In this prospective observational cohort study at a single tertiary-care center, 1,350 cancer patients were enrolled. Simple and multiple logistic regression models were utilized to identify associations between predisposing and precipitating factors and delirium. Cox proportional-hazards models were used to estimate the effect of delirium on death rate.
In our patient cohort, the prevalence of delirium was 34.3%. Delirium was associated inter alia with prolonged hospitalization, a doubling of care requirements, increased healthcare costs, increased need for institutionalization (OR 3.22), and increased mortality (OR 8.78). Predisposing factors for delirium were impaired activity (OR 10.82), frailty (OR 4.75); hearing (OR 2.23) and visual impairment (OR 1.89), chronic pneumonitis (OR 2.62), hypertension (OR 1.46), and renal insufficiency (OR 1.82). Precipitating factors were acute renal failure (OR 7.50), pressure sores (OR 3.78), pain (OR 2.86), and cystitis (OR 1.32). On multivariate Cox regression, delirium increased the mortality risk sixfold (HR 5.66). Age ≥ 65 years and comorbidities further doubled the mortality risk of delirious patients (HR 1.77; HR 2.05).
Significance of results
Delirium is common in cancer patients and associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Systematically categorizing predisposing and precipitating factors might yield new strategies for preventing and managing delirium in cancer patients.
Diverse risk factors intercede the outcomes of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We conducted this retrospective cohort study with a cohort of 1016 COVID-19 patients diagnosed in May 2020 to identify the risk factors associated with morbidity and mortality outcomes. Data were collected by telephone-interview and reviewing records using a questionnaire and checklist. The study identified morbidity and mortality risk factors on the 28th day of the disease course. The majority of the patients were male (64.1%) and belonged to the age group 25–39 years (39.4%). Urban patients were higher in proportion than rural (69.3% vs. 30.7%). Major comorbidities included 35.0% diabetes mellitus (DM), 28.4% hypertension (HTN), 16.6% chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and 7.8% coronary heart disease (CHD). The morbidity rate (not-cured) was 6.0%, and the mortality rate (non-survivor) was 2.5%. Morbidity risk factors included elderly (AOR = 2.56, 95% CI = 1.31–4.99), having comorbidity (AOR = 1.43, 95% CI = 0.83–2.47), and smokeless tobacco use (AOR = 2.17, 95% CI = 0.84–5.61). The morbidity risk was higher with COPD (RR = 2.68), chronic kidney disease (CKD) (RR = 3.33) and chronic liver disease (CLD) (RR = 3.99). Mortality risk factors included elderly (AOR = 7.56, 95% CI = 3.19–17.92), having comorbidity (AOR = 5.27, 95% CI = 1.88–14.79) and SLT use (AOR = 1.93, 95% CI = 0.50–7.46). The mortality risk was higher with COPD (RR = 7.30), DM (RR = 2.63), CHD (RR = 4.65), HTN (RR = 3.38), CKD (RR = 9.03), CLD (RR = 10.52) and malignant diseases (RR = 9.73). We must espouse programme interventions considering the morbidity and mortality risk factors to condense the aggressive outcomes of COVID-19.
Chapter 3 is devoted to the demographic impact of the famine in terms of mortality, fertility, and its long-term biological effects. It shows that in the entire crisis period of September 1944-July 1945, the estimated war-related excess deaths among civilians was 35,000 in the three famine-exposed western provinces. Deaths in the large conurbations began to rise sharply after December 1944 and reached a peak in March 1945. It took until the summer of that year before mortality reached normal patterns again. Fertility followed similar patterns, with birth rates in the urban west two to three times lower in the famine’s wake. The long-term effects of the famine are present even today, in adults who were conceived or born during the famine.
Premature mortality among patients experiencing forensic care is high. This paper examines the morbidity and mortality of all Scottish high secure patients in 1992/1993 and followed up 20 years later through the context of recovery.
To explore morbidity and delineate which patients are at greatest risk of premature mortality. To assess the extent of suicide and unnatural deaths. To establish which factors, if any, appear protective.
Health and mortality data were extracted from national data-sets and death categorised as premature or post-expected age. Standardised mortality ratios were calculated to explore natural, unnatural and suicide deaths with Cox regression conducted to explore baseline demographics and premature death.
During a mean follow-up of 21.1 years, 36.9% (n = 89) died, at an average age of 55.6 years. Of these, 70.8% (n = 63) died prematurely. Men lost on average 14.9 years and women 24.1 years of potential life. Five lives (5.6%) were lost by suicide and three (3.4%) by unnatural means.
In contrast to other mainstream and forensic cohorts, high rates of suicide and accidental deaths were not apparent. Risk of premature mortality is high. A greater focus upon physical health by community and in-patient services is essential.
Almost 19% of the GDP of Ethiopia results from livestock production. Ruminants, in particular, form the majority of the national herd and are a critical source of income for smallholder farmers. Infectious diseases have been identified as a major cause of reduced livestock productivity in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs); therefore, a sound and comprehensive understanding of the relevant evidence would be beneficial in order to enable decision making on disease control policies. However, livestock disease data from sub-Saharan Africa is variable and disparate, which poses a challenge for evidence synthesis. This paper describes a protocol for a systematic mapping review of the recent available evidence on ruminant disease prevalence and associated mortality in Ethiopia. Literature sources will be identified using database search strategies. The titles, abstracts and, subsequently, full texts will be screened for inclusion based on predefined eligibility criteria. Specific data will be extracted and a preliminary qualitative assessment of the evidence will be performed using predefined indicators. The planned systematic map will be the first to provide a large-scale overview of the available ruminant disease evidence in Ethiopia; the final output will be an interactive dashboard tool to inform critical stakeholders in policy and research.
Aggressive and disruptive behaviors often precede the onset of schizophrenia. In this register-based follow-up study with a case-control design, we wanted to investigate if serious delinquency was associated with future diagnoses of schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder (here, broadly defined schizophrenia) among a nationwide consecutive sample of 15- to 19-year-old Finnish delinquents sent for a forensic psychiatric examination in 1989–2010.
The sample comprised 313 delinquents with no past or current psychotic disorder. For each delinquent, four age-, gender- and place of birth -matched controls were randomly selected from the Central Population Register. Five controls (0.4%) had been treated for schizophrenia before their respective index-dates and were thus excluded from further analysis, leaving us with a control population of 1247 individuals. The subjects were followed till death, emigration or the end of 2015, whichever occurred first. Diagnoses were obtained from the Care Register for Health Care.
Forty (12.8%) of the delinquents and 11 (0.9%) of the controls were diagnosed with schizophrenia later in life (HR 16.6, 95% CI 8.53–32.39, P < 0.001). Almost half of the pretrial adolescents with later schizophrenia were diagnosed within 5 years of the forensic psychiatric examination, but latency was longer among the other half of the sample, reaching up to 20.5 years.
The study supports the previous research indicating a potential link between serious delinquency and later schizophrenia. Accurate psychiatric assessments should be made in correctional services but also later in life so that any possible psychotic symptoms can be detected in individuals with a history of serious delinquency even if there were no signs of psychosis before or at the time of the crime. Future research should explore which factors influence the delinquent's risk of developing later schizophrenia.
A systematic review and network meta-analysis (NMA) were conducted to address the question, ‘What is the efficacy of litter management strategies to reduce morbidity, mortality, condemnation at slaughter, or total antibiotic use in broilers?’ Eligible studies were clinical trials published in English evaluating the efficacy of litter management in broilers on morbidity, condemnations at slaughter, mortality, or total antibiotic use. Multiple databases and two conference proceedings were searched for relevant literature. After relevance screening and data extraction, there were 50 trials evaluating litter type, 22 trials evaluating litter additives, 10 trials comparing fresh to re-used litter, and six trials evaluating floor type. NMAs were conducted for mortality (61 trials) and for the presence or absence of footpad lesions (15 trials). There were no differences in mortality among the litter types, floor types, or additives. For footpad lesions, peat moss appeared beneficial compared to straw, based on a small number of comparisons. In a pairwise meta-analysis, there was no association between fresh versus used litter on the risk of mortality, although there was considerable heterogeneity among studies (I2 = 66%). There was poor reporting of key design features in many studies, and analyses rarely accounted for non-independence of observations within flocks.
Aboriginal Australians experience higher rates of non-communicable chronic disease, injury, dementia, and mortality than non-Aboriginal Australians. Self-reported health is a holistic measure and may fit well with Aboriginal views of health and well-being. This study aimed to identify predictors of self-reported health in older Aboriginal Australians and determine acceptable research methodologies for future aging research.
Longitudinal, population-based study.
Five communities across New South Wales, Australia (two urban and three regional sites).
Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people (n = 227; 60–88 years, M = 66.06, SD = 5.85; 145 female).
Participants completed baseline (demographic, medical, cognitive, mental health, and social factors) and follow-up assessments (self-reported health quantified with 5-point scale; sharing thoughts on areas important for future research). Predictors of self-reported health were examined using logistic regression analyses.
Self-reported health was associated with sex, activities of daily living, social activity participation, resilience, alcohol use, kidney problems, arthritis, falls, and recent hospitalization. Arthritis, kidney problems, and resilience remained significant in multiple logistic regression models.
Perceived resilience and the absence of certain chronic age-related conditions predict older Aboriginal peoples’ self-reported health. Understanding these factors could inform interventions to improve well-being. Findings on acceptable research methodologies suggest that many older Aboriginal people would embrace a range of methodologies within long-standing research partnerships, which is an important consideration for Indigenous population research internationally.
Hurricane Harvey left a path of destruction in its wake, resulting in over 100 deaths and damaging critical infrastructure. During a disaster, public health surveillance is necessary to track emerging illnesses and injuries, identify at-risk populations, and assess the effectiveness of response efforts. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and American Red Cross collaborate on shelter surveillance to monitor the health of the sheltered population and help guide response efforts.
We analyzed data collected from 24 Red Cross shelters between August 25, 2017, and September 14, 2017. We described the aggregate morbidity data collected during Harvey compared with previous hurricanes (Gustav, Ike, and Sandy).
Over one-third (38%) of reasons for visit were for health care maintenance; 33% for acute illnesses, which includes respiratory conditions, gastrointestinal symptoms, and pain; 19% for exacerbation of chronic disease; 7% for mental health; and 4% for injury. The Red Cross treated 41% of clients within the shelters; however, reporting of disposition was often missed. These results are comparable to previous hurricanes.
The capacity of Red Cross shelter staff to address the acute health needs of shelter residents is a critical resource for local public health agencies overwhelmed by the disaster. However, there remains room for improvement because reporting remained inconsistent.
Investigate short- and long-term effects of Superstorm Sandy on multiple morbidities among the elderly.
We examined emergency department visits; outpatient visits; and hospital admissions for cardiovascular disease (CVD), respiratory disease, and injury among residents residing in 8 affected counties immediately, 4 months, and 12 months following Superstorm Sandy. Control groups were defined as visits/admissions during the identical time window in the 5 years before (2007-2011) and 1 year after (2013-2014) the storm in affected and nonaffected counties in New York. We performed Poisson regression to test whether there was an association of increased visits/admissions for periods following Superstorm Sandy while controlling for covariates.
We found that the risk for CVD, respiratory disease, and injury visits/admissions was more than twice as high immediately, 4 months, and 12 months after the storm than it was in the control periods. Women were at greater risk at all time periods for CVD (risk ratio [RR], 2.04) and respiratory disease (RRs: 1.89 to 1.92). Whites had higher risk for CVD, respiratory disease, and injury than other racial groups during each period.
We observed increases in CVD, respiratory disease, and injury up to a year following Superstorm Sandy. Findings demonstrate the need to incorporate short- and long-term health effects into public health recovery. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2019;13:28-32)
Other than obesity, no definitive insights have been gained regarding the apparent association between mode of delivery and long-term endocrine and metabolic outcomes in the offspring. We aimed to determine whether elective cesarean delivery (CD) impacts on long-term endocrine and metabolic morbidity of the offspring. A population-based cohort analysis was performed including all singleton-term deliveries occurring between 1991 and 2014 at a single tertiary medical center. A comparison was performed between children delivered via a non-emergent CD and those delivered vaginally (VD). Hospitalizations of the offspring up to the age of 18 years involving endocrine morbidity were evaluated. A Kaplan–Meier survival curve was used to compare cumulative morbidity incidence. Cox and a Weibull regression models were used to control for confounders. During the study period 131,880 term deliveries met the inclusion criteria; 8.9% were elective non-urgent CDs (n=11,768) and 91.1% (n=120,112) were VDs. The survival curve demonstrated a significantly higher cumulative incidence of endo-metabolic morbidity in offspring born via CD (P=0.010). In the regression models, adjusted for maternal obesity, CD was not noted as an independent risk factor for long-term pediatric endocrine and metabolic morbidity of the offspring while maternal obesity emerged as a strong predictor. We therefore conclude that CD per-se does not appear to increase the risk for long-term pediatric endo-metabolic morbidity of the offspring.
As prevalence of mental health disorders increases worldwide, recognition and treatment of these disorders falls increasingly into the remit of primary care. This study investigated the prevalence and management of adults presenting to their general practitioner (GP) in Ireland with a psychological condition.
A random number function was used to select 100 patients with a consultation in the previous 2 years from 40 general practices around Ireland. The clinical records of these patients were examined using a standardised reporting tool to extract information on demographics, eligibility for free care, prevalence and treatment of psychological conditions.
From a sample of 3845 ‘active’ patients, 620 (16%, 95% confidence interval 15–17%) had a documented psychological condition in the previous 2 years. The most common diagnoses were depression (54%) followed by stress and anxiety (47%). The following patient characteristics were associated with having a documented mental health condition: female gender; higher GP consultation rate; a referral or attendance at secondary care and eligibility for free GP care. Of those with a psychological condition, 34% received a psychological intervention and 81% received a pharmacological intervention.
The overall prevalence estimate of mental health disorders for this sample was lower than previously documented in primary care. Patients diagnosed with mental health disorders had higher utilisation of health services and pharmacological treatment was common.
Circulating 25-hydroxy vitamin D (25(OH)D) is related to decreased rates of gastrointestinal and ear infections in school-age children. Vitamin D-binding protein (DBP) transports 25(OH)D and exerts immunological functions; however, it is unknown whether DBP is associated with infectious morbidity in children. We quantified plasma DBP concentrations in 540 school-age children at the time of recruitment into a cohort study in Bogotá, Colombia and obtained daily information on infectious morbidity symptoms and doctor visits during the school year. We compared the incidence rates of gastrointestinal and respiratory symptoms across quartiles of DBP concentration by estimating adjusted incidence rate ratios (IRRs) with 95% confidence interval (CI). We also estimated the per cent of the associations between DBP and morbidity that were mediated through 25(OH)D using a counterfactual frame. Mean ± s.d. DBP concentration was 2650 ± 1145 nmol/l. DBP was inversely associated with the rates of diarrhoea with vomiting (IRR for quartiles 2–4 vs. 1 = 0.48; 95% CI 0.25–0.92; P = 0.03) and earache/ear discharge with fever (IRR for quartiles 2–4 vs. 1 = 0.29; 95% CI 0.12–0.71; P = 0.006). The DBP–morbidity associations were not mediated through 25(OH)D. We conclude that plasma DBP predicts lower incidence of gastrointestinal and ear infections in school-age children independent of 25(OH)D.
We examined whether hypotension in very low birth weight infants aged⩽1 week was associated with hospital morbidities and overall mortality. Further, we studied whether hypotension was associated with poor neurodevelopmental outcomes in these patients at the corrected age of 18 months. A total of 166 very low birth weight infants were studied during this period. Hospital outcomes and neurodevelopmental outcomes at the corrected age of 18 months were evaluated. Among the 166 very low birth weight infants, 95 patients (57.2%) experienced hypotension at⩽1 week and were associated with an increased incidence of morbidities and mortality. At the corrected age of 18 months, hypotension of the⩽1 week group had significantly lower scores in all three – cognitive, language, and motor – composites of the Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development, Third Edition (Bayley-III) screening tests. In addition, a multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that longer mechanical ventilation and periventricular leukomalacia were additionally associated with worse cognitive and language neurodevelopmental outcomes. Hypotension in very low birth weight infants within 1 week of life was associated with increased morbidities and overall mortality. It was also associated with an increased risk of cognitive and language outcomes.
Zn deficiency and diarrhoea are prevalent and may coexist in children living in low-resource settings. Recently, a novel approach for delivering Zn via microbiologically treated, Zn-fortified water was shown to be effective in improving Zn status in West African schoolchildren. We assessed the effectiveness of Zn-fortified, microbiologically purified water delivered as a household intervention on Zn intake, status and morbidity in children aged 2–6 years from rural western Kenya.
Randomised controlled trial. Intervention included households assigned to water treatment device with (ZFW) or without (FW) Zn delivery capability
Rural households in Kisumu, western Kenya.
Children aged 2–6 years.
The ZFW group had higher dietary Zn intake compared with the FW group. ZFW contributed 36 and 31 % of daily requirements for absorbable Zn in children aged 2–3 and 4–6 years, respectively, in the ZFW group. Consumption of Zn-fortified water resulted in lower prevalence of reported illness (risk ratio; 95 % CI) in the ZFW group compared with the FW group: for cold with runny nose (0·91; 0·83, 0·99; P=0·034) and abdominal pain (0·70; 0·56, 0·89; P=0·003) in the intention-to-treat analysis and for diarrhoea (0·72; 0·53, 0·96; P=0·025) in the per-protocol analysis. We did not detect an effect of treatment on plasma Zn concentration.
Daily consumption of Zn-fortified, microbiologically treated water results in increased intake of absorbable dietary Zn and may help in preventing childhood infections in pre-school children in rural Africa.