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Authoritarian Survival and Leadership Succession in North Korea and Beyond examines how dictators manage elites to facilitate succession. Theoretically, it argues that personalistic incumbents facilitate the construction of a power base of elites from outside of their inner circle to help the successor govern once he comes to power. Then, once in office, successors consolidate power by initially relying on this power base to govern while marginalizing elites from their predecessor's inner circle before later targeting members of their own power base to further consolidate power. The Element presents evidence for these arguments from North Korea's two leadership transitions, leveraging original qualitative and quantitative evidence from inside North Korea. Comparative vignettes of succession in party-based China, Egypt's military regime, and monarchical Saudi Arabia demonstrate the theory's broader applicability. The Element contributes to research on comparative authoritarianism by highlighting how dictators use the non-institutional tool of elite management to facilitate succession.
Close collaboration between science and industry is essential for the formulation of evidence-based welfare policies. However, there is a need to recognise and manage potential challenges that may arise during collaborative projects. An applied animal welfare science project evaluating the inclusion of welfare outcome measures into UK pig farm assurance, with a view to industry implementation, is used as a case example to illustrate potential challenges. This project encountered difficulties associated with differences in understanding and expectations, discussion of controversial welfare issues, challenges to personal values and conflict between academic and industry outcomes. With the assistance of an independent review conducted during the project, potential solutions were developed and successfully implemented. It is proposed that similar science-industry partnerships should allow sufficient time for dialogue, distinguish between experimental and applied science, ensure sufficient involvement from interested parties and use facilitation techniques to develop consensus.
Many people suffering from psychotic disorders report persistent auditory verbal hallucinations (‘voices’) despite pharmacological and psychological therapy. Interest is growing in approaches that emphasise the personal relationship between the patient and their voice(s). AVATAR therapy is one such approach that uses a digital representation (avatar) of a selected voice to facilitate a three-way discussion between patient, therapist and voice, the therapist speaking either as him/herself or in the digitally transformed voice of the avatar. Objectives: To describe AVATAR therapy and an ongoing multi-centre clinical trial. Methods: Encouraging findings from an earlier controlled trial (AVATAR1) comparing AVATAR therapy and supportive counselling informed our current multi-site cost-effectiveness trial of brief and extended versions of the therapy compared to treatment as usual (AVATAR2). Results: AVATAR1 delivered in 7 weekly sessions resulted in a reduction in the frequency, distress and power of voices that was significantly superior to supportive counselling. Clinical experience suggested that some participants improved in response to the early focus on anxiety while others seemed more responsive to later more formulation-driven approach. These findings led us to the current ongoing three arm clinical trial comprising a brief (6 session) focus on anxiety/assertiveness, an extended (12 session) formulation-driven approach both approaches compared to treatment as usual. Conclusion: Previous AVATAR studies suggest this is a therapy with considerable promise. It can be delivered through widely available laptop computers, usually in clinic but also remotely via existing commercial platforms. The current trial will address questions about dissemination, training and cost-effectiveness in NHS settings.
Disclosure
The digital technology employed in AVATAR therapy is provided by licence for the trial from Avatar Therapy Ltd
Voices are commonly experienced as communication with a personified ‘other’ with ascribed attitudes, intentionality and personality (their own ‘character’). Phenomenological work exploring voice characterisation informs a new wave of relational therapies. To date, no study has investigated the role of characterisation in behavioural engagement with voices or within psychological therapy for distressing voices.
Methods
Baseline characterisation (the degree to which the voice is an identifiable and characterful entity) of the dominant voice was rated (high, medium or low) using a newly developed coding framework, for n = 60 people prior to starting AVATAR therapy. Associations between degree of characterisation and (i) everyday behavioural engagement with voices (The Beliefs about Voices Questionnaire-Revised; n = 60); and (ii) interaction within avatar dialogue [Session 4 Time in Conversation (participant–avatar); n = 45 therapy completers] were explored.
Results
Thirty-three per cent reported high voice characterisation, 42% medium and 25% low. There was a significant association between characterisation and behavioural engagement [H(2) = 7.65, p = 0.022, ɛ2 = 0.130] and duration of participant–avatar conversation [F(2,42) = 6.483, p = 0.004, η2 = 0.236]. High characterisation was associated with increased behavioural engagement compared with medium (p = 0.004, r = 0.34; moderate effect) and low (p = 0.027, r = 0.25; small−moderate effect) with a similar pattern observed for the avatar dialogue [high v. medium: p = 0.008, Hedges’ g = 1.02 (large effect); high v. low: p = 0.023, Hedges' g = 1.03 (large effect)]. No differences were observed between medium and low characterisation.
Discussion
Complex voice characterisation is associated with how individuals interact with their voice(s) in and out of therapy. Clinical implications and future directions for AVATAR therapy and other relational therapies are discussed.
We present new estimates of the outcomes of first-generation Mexicans and their descendants between 1880 and 1940. We find zero convergence of the economic gap between Mexicans and non-Mexican whites across three generations. The great-grandchildren of immigrants also had fewer years of education. Slow convergence is not simply due to an inheritance of poverty; rather, Mexican Americans had worse outcomes conditional on the father’s economic status. However, the gap between third-generation Mexican Americans and non-Mexican whites is about half the size today as it was in 1940, suggesting that barriers to Mexican American progress have significantly decreased over time.
Mathematical programming-based systems analysis is used to examine the consequences of alternative operation configuration for the agricultural operations within the Texas Department of Criminal Justice. Continuation versus elimination of the total operation as well as individual operating departments are considered. Methodology includes a firm systems operation model combined with capital budgeting and an integer programming based investment model. Results indicate the resources realize a positive return as a whole, but some enterprises are not using resources profitably. The integer investment model is found to be superior for investigating whether to continue multiple interrelated enterprises.
We estimate the self-selection of Mexican migrants into and out of the United States in the 1920s. Officials recorded migrant height on border crossing manifests, which we use to proxy migrant quality and to measure self-selection into migration in 1920. Migrants were positively selected on height compared to the Mexican population. We link these migrants to the 1930 U.S. and Mexican censuses to obtain samples of permanent and return migrants and to estimate the selection into return migration. Return migrants were not differentially self-selected on height relative to permanent migrants.
This volume comprises articles from four outstanding researchers who work at the cusp of analysis and logic. The emphasis is on active research topics; many results are presented that have not been published before and open problems are formulated. Considerable effort has been made by the authors to integrate their articles and make them accessible to mathematicians new to the area.
Decision analysis is a prescriptive theory that aids individuals or groups confronted with complex problems in a wide variety of contexts. By framing issues, identifying risks, eliciting stakeholder preferences, and suggesting alternative approaches, decision analysts can offer workable solutions in domains such as the environment, health and medicine, engineering and operations research, and public policy. This book is a mixture of historical and forward-looking essays on key topics in decision analysis. Part I covers the history and foundations of decision analysis. Part II discusses structuring decision problems, including the development of objectives and their attributes, and influence diagrams. Part III discusses probabilities and their elicitation and Bayes nets. Part IV discusses additive and multiplicative utilities, risk preferences, and 'option pricing' methods. Part V discusses risk analysis. Part VI puts decision analysis in a behavioral and organizational context. Part VII presents case studies of applications.