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Inaccurate representations of iceberg calving from ice shelves are a large source of uncertainty in mass-loss projections from the Antarctic ice sheet. Here, we address this limitation by implementing and testing a continuum damage-mechanics model in a continental scale ice-sheet model. The damage-mechanics formulation, based on a linear stability analysis and subsequent long-wavelength approximation of crevasses that evolve in a viscous medium, links damage evolution to climate forcing and the large-scale stresses within an ice shelf. We incorporate this model into the BISICLES ice-sheet model and test it by applying it to idealized (1) ice tongues, for which we present analytical solutions and (2) buttressed ice-shelf geometries. Our simulations show that the model reproduces the large disparity in lengths of ice shelves with geometries and melt rates broadly similar to those of four Antarctic ice shelves: Erebus Glacier Tongue (length ~ 13 km), the unembayed portion of Drygalski Ice Tongue (~ 65 km), the Amery Ice Shelf (~ 350 km) and the Ross Ice Shelf (~ 500 km). These results demonstrate that our simple continuum model holds promise for constraining realistic ice-shelf extents in large-scale ice-sheet models in a computationally tractable manner.
Antarctica's ice shelves modulate the grounded ice flow, and weakening of ice shelves due to climate forcing will decrease their ‘buttressing’ effect, causing a response in the grounded ice. While the processes governing ice-shelf weakening are complex, uncertainties in the response of the grounded ice sheet are also difficult to assess. The Antarctic BUttressing Model Intercomparison Project (ABUMIP) compares ice-sheet model responses to decrease in buttressing by investigating the ‘end-member’ scenario of total and sustained loss of ice shelves. Although unrealistic, this scenario enables gauging the sensitivity of an ensemble of 15 ice-sheet models to a total loss of buttressing, hence exhibiting the full potential of marine ice-sheet instability. All models predict that this scenario leads to multi-metre (1–12 m) sea-level rise over 500 years from present day. West Antarctic ice sheet collapse alone leads to a 1.91–5.08 m sea-level rise due to the marine ice-sheet instability. Mass loss rates are a strong function of the sliding/friction law, with plastic laws cause a further destabilization of the Aurora and Wilkes Subglacial Basins, East Antarctica. Improvements to marine ice-sheet models have greatly reduced variability between modelled ice-sheet responses to extreme ice-shelf loss, e.g. compared to the SeaRISE assessments.
A new carbon isotope record for two high-latitude sedimentary successions that span the Jurassic–Cretaceous boundary interval in the Sverdrup Basin of Arctic Canada is presented. This study, combined with other published Arctic data, shows a large negative isotopic excursion of organic carbon (δ13Corg) of 4‰ (V-PDB) and to a minimum of −30.7‰ in the probable middle Volgian Stage. This is followed by a return to less negative values of c. −27‰. A smaller positive excursion in the Valanginian Stage of c. 2‰, reaching maximum values of −24.6‰, is related to the Weissert Event. The Volgian isotopic trends are consistent with other high-latitude records but do not appear in δ13Ccarb records of Tethyan Tithonian strata. In the absence of any obvious definitive cause for the depleted δ13Corg anomaly, we suggest several possible contributing factors. The Sverdrup Basin and other Arctic areas may have experienced compositional evolution away from open-marine δ13C values during the Volgian Age due to low global or large-scale regional sea levels, and later become effectively coupled to global oceans by Valanginian time when sea level rose. A geologically sudden increase in volcanism may have caused the large negative δ13Corg values seen in the Arctic Volgian records but the lack of precise geochronological age control for the Jurassic–Cretaceous boundary precludes direct comparison with potentially coincident events, such as the Shatsky Rise. This study offers improved correlation constraints and a refined C-isotope curve for the Boreal region throughout latest Jurassic and earliest Cretaceous time.
Parasites are considered to be an important selective force in host evolution but ecological studies of host-parasite systems are usually short-term providing only snap-shots of what may be dynamic systems. We have conducted four surveys of helminths of bank voles at three ecologically similar woodland sites in NE Poland, spaced over a period of 11 years, to assess the relative importance of temporal and spatial effects on helminth infracommunities. Some measures of infracommunity structure maintained relative stability: the rank order of prevalence and abundance of Heligmosomum mixtum, Heligmosomoides glareoli and Mastophorus muris changed little between the four surveys. Other measures changed markedly: dynamic changes were evident in Syphacia petrusewiczi which declined to local extinction, while the capillariid Aonchotheca annulosa first appeared in 2002 and then increased in prevalence and abundance over the remaining three surveys. Some species are therefore dynamic and both introductions and extinctions can be expected in ecological time. At higher taxonomic levels and for derived measures, year and host-age effects and their interactions with site are important. Our surveys emphasize that the site of capture is the major determinant of the species contributing to helminth community structure, providing some predictability in these systems.
For many regions, glacier inaccessibility results in sparse geometric datasets for use as model initial conditions (e.g. along the central flowline only). In these cases, two-dimensional (2-D) flowline models are often used to study glacier dynamics. Here we systematically investigate the applicability of a 2-D, first-order Stokes approximation flowline model (FLM), modified by shape factors, for the simulation of land-terminating glaciers by comparing it with a 3-D, ‘full’-Stokes ice-flow model (FSM). Based on steady-state and transient, thermomechanically uncoupled and coupled computational experiments, we explore the sensitivities of the FLM and FSM to ice geometry, temperature and forward model integration time. We find that, compared to the FSM, the FLM generally produces slower horizontal velocities, due to simplifications inherent to the FLM and to the underestimation of the shape factor. For polythermal glaciers, those with temperate ice zones, or when basal sliding is important, we find significant differences between simulation results when using the FLM versus the FSM. Over time, initially small differences between the FLM and FSM become much larger, particularly near cold/temperate ice transition surfaces. Long time integrations further increase small initial differences between the two models. We conclude that the FLM should be applied with caution when modelling glacier changes under a warming climate or over long periods of time.
This paper focuses on the development of an efficient, three-dimensional, thermo-mechanical, nonlinear-Stokes flow computational model for ice sheet simulation. The model is based on the parallel finite element model developed in  which features high-order accurate finite element discretizations on variable resolution grids. Here, we add an improved iterative solution method for treating the nonlinearity of the Stokes problem, a new high-order accurate finite element solver for the temperature equation, and a new conservative finite volume solver for handling mass conservation. The result is an accurate and efficient numerical model for thermo-mechanical glacier and ice-sheet simulations. We demonstrate the improved efficiency of the Stokes solver using the ISMIP-HOM Benchmark experiments and a realistic test case for the Greenland ice-sheet. We also apply our model to the EISMINT-II benchmark experiments and demonstrate stable thermo-mechanical ice sheet evolution on both structured and unstructured meshes. Notably, we find no evidence for the “cold spoke” instabilities observed for these same experiments when using finite difference, shallow-ice approximation models on structured grids.
Cogongrass, an invasive grass native to Asia, has infested thousands of hectares in the southeastern United States. Although numerous studies have examined cogongrass control, no published studies, to our knowledge, have tested strategies for cogongrass eradication. Cogongrass has a persistent, thick rhizome mat but an ephemeral seedbank; therefore, successful eradication methods must largely focus on the rhizomes. A field study to evaluate specific herbicide treatments and application timings for cogongrass patch eradication was conducted at two locations in southwestern Alabama. Herbicide treatments included glyphosate at 4.48 kg ai ha−1, imazapyr at 0.84 kg ai ha−1, and a tank mix of glyphosate and imazapyr at the same rates. Treatments were applied in May, August, or October for 3 consecutive yr, and the May glyphosate treatment included a second annual application each October. Cogongrass visual control, shoot biomass, rhizome biomass, rhizome depth, and total nonstructural carbohydrate (TNC) content were sampled during the course of the study. Cogongrass response to treatments varied by location but by 36 mo after initial treatment (MAIT), complete elimination of cogongrass shoot and rhizome biomass and 100% visual control was achieved in several herbicide treatment–timing combinations at both locations. These included glyphosate plus imazapyr at any application timing, imazapyr in August or October, and glyphosate applied in May and October each year. TNC levels of surviving healthy rhizomes were not affected by herbicide treatments, but a seasonal pattern was observed. The maximum live-rhizome depth was not influenced by any treatment, indicating that herbicides were not preferentially leaving deeper, surviving rhizomes. These results demonstrate, for the first time, that the entire rhizome layer of cogongrass can be eliminated within 3 yr with multiple treatment options and that cogongrass patch eradication is possible for many land managers.
Obstetricians most commonly encounter shock in the form of hemorrhage, but it is important to realize that shock can be classified in several types, and correction of the physiological derangement can correct the dysoxia at the tissue level before shock becomes irreversible. Etiologically shock is classified into the following types: hypovolemic shock (i.e. hemorrhage in coagulopathy), cardiogenic shock (myocardial dysfunction in the systemic inflammatory response syndrome and with toxins associated with septicemia), distributive shock (through activation of the systemic inflammatory response system), and obstructive shock (septic embolism). Therapy for cardiogenic shock requires restoration of adequate coronary perfusion in order to minimize further myocardial depression and necrosis. Anaphylactic and anaphylactoid reactions are clinically indistinguishable. The goals of management of anaphylaxis are interrupting contact with the responsible drug, modulating the effects of the released mediators, and preventing further mediator production and release.
Ten ice-sheet models are used to study sensitivity of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to prescribed changes of surface mass balance, sub-ice-shelf melting and basal sliding. Results exhibit a large range in projected contributions to sea-level change. In most cases, the ice volume above flotation lost is linearly dependent on the strength of the forcing. Combinations of forcings can be closely approximated by linearly summing the contributions from single forcing experiments, suggesting that nonlinear feedbacks are modest. Our models indicate that Greenland is more sensitive than Antarctica to likely atmospheric changes in temperature and precipitation, while Antarctica is more sensitive to increased ice-shelf basal melting. An experiment approximating the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s RCP8.5 scenario produces additional first-century contributions to sea level of 22.3 and 8.1 cm from Greenland and Antarctica, respectively, with a range among models of 62 and 14 cm, respectively. By 200 years, projections increase to 53.2 and 26.7 cm, respectively, with ranges of 79 and 43 cm. Linear interpolation of the sensitivity results closely approximates these projections, revealing the relative contributions of the individual forcings on the combined volume change and suggesting that total ice-sheet response to complicated forcings over 200 years can be linearized.
Infestations caused by bed bugs have resurfaced during the past decade across all continents. Even though bed bugs primarily cause skin manifestations in humans, a major stigma is placed upon people or institutions found to carry them. It is important for healthcare facilities to be prepared for this pest by implementing policies, carefully selecting materials used for hospital furniture, and educating providers on early identification and control.
The success of central line-associated bloodstream infection (CLABSI) prevention programs in intensive care units (ICUs) has led to the expansion of surveillance at many hospitals. We sought to compare non-ICU CLABSI (nCLABSI) rates with national reports and describe methods of surveillance at several participating US institutions.
Design and Setting.
An electronic survey of several medical centers about infection surveillance practices and rate data for non-ICU Patients.
Ten tertiary care hospitals.
In March 2011, a survey was sent to 10 medical centers. The survey consisted of 12 questions regarding demographics and CLABSI surveillance methodology for non-ICU patients at each center. Participants were also asked to provide available rate and device utilization data.
Hospitals ranged in size from 238 to 1,400 total beds (median, 815). All hospitals reported using Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) definitions. Denominators were collected by different means: counting patients with central lines every day (5 hospitals), indirectly estimating on the basis of electronic orders (n = 4), or another automated method (n = 1). Rates of nCLABSI ranged from 0.2 to 4.2 infections per 1,000 catheter-days (median, 2.5). The national rate reported by the CDC using 2009 data from the National Healthcare Surveillance Network was 1.14 infections per 1,000 catheter-days.
Only 2 hospitals were below the pooled CLABSI rate for inpatient wards; all others exceeded this rate. Possible explanations include differences in average central line utilization or hospital size in the impact of certain clinical risk factors notably absent from the definition and in interpretation and reporting practices. Further investigation is necessary to determine whether the national benchmarks are low or whether the hospitals surveyed here represent a selection of outliers.
A numerical model for an interacting ice shelf and ocean is presented in which the ice- shelf base exhibits a channelized morphology similar to that observed beneath Petermann Gletscher’s (Greenland) floating ice shelf. Channels are initiated by irregularities in the ice along the grounding line and then enlarged by ocean melting. To a first approximation, spatially variable basal melting seaward of the grounding line acts as a steel-rule die or a stencil, imparting a channelized form to the ice base as it passes by. Ocean circulation in the region of high melt is inertial in the along-channel direction and geostrophically balanced in the transverse direction. Melt rates depend on the wavelength of imposed variations in ice thickness where it enters the shelf, with shorter wavelengths reducing overall melting. Petermann Gletscher’s narrow basal channels may therefore act to preserve the ice shelf against excessive melting. Overall melting in the model increases for a warming of the subsurface water. The same sensitivity holds for very slight cooling, but for cooling of a few tenths of a degree a reorganization of the spatial pattern of melting leads, surprisingly, to catastrophic thinning of the ice shelf 12 km from the grounding line. Subglacial discharge of fresh water along the grounding line increases overall melting. The eventual steady state depends on when discharge is initiated in the transient history of the ice, showing that multiple steady states of the coupled system exist in general.
A three-dimensional full-Stokes computational model is considered for determining the dynamics, temperature, and thickness of ice sheets. The governing thermo-mechanical equations consist of the three-dimensional full-Stokes system with nonlinear rheology for the momentum, an advective-diffusion energy equation for temperature evolution, and a mass conservation equation for ice-thickness changes. Here, we discuss the variable resolution meshes, the finite element discretizations, and the parallel algorithms employed by the model components. The solvers are integrated through a well-designed coupler for the exchange of parametric data between components. The discretization utilizes high-quality, variable-resolution centroidal Voronoi Delaunay triangulation meshing and existing parallel solvers. We demonstrate the gridding technology, discretization schemes, and the efficiency and scalability of the parallel solvers through computational experiments using both simplified geometries arising from benchmark test problems and a realistic Greenland ice sheet geometry.