This study reports water capacity estimates for four reservoirs within the Classic Maya city of El Perú-Waka’, Guatemala. Combining field survey, soil analysis, and a variety of GIS interpolation methods, it illustrates ways to more fully quantify a challenging resource—water—and its availability using an interdisciplinary approach. This is accomplished by comparing surface interpolation methods for estimating reservoir capacities to demonstrate that most provide reliable estimates. Reported estimates are further enhanced by analyzing internal reservoir soil morphology to better understand and quantify formation processes and refine estimates from field survey. These analyses document a multiscalar organization to water management within the Waka’ urban core that likely ran the gamut from individuals up to civic and state institutions. Although intricacies remain to be fully elucidated, this example offers an alternate path to theorizing about water management practices from traditional binary approaches.

The late Holocene Bonneville landslide, a 15.5 km2 rockslide-debris avalanche, descended 1000 m from the north side of the Columbia River Gorge and dammed the Columbia River where it bisects the Cascade Range of Oregon and Washington, USA. The landslide, inundation, and overtopping created persistent geomorphic, ecologic, and cultural consequences to the river corridor, reported by Indigenous narratives and explorer accounts, as well as scientists and engineers. From new dendrochronology and radiocarbon dating of three trees killed by the landslide, one entrained and buried by the landslide and two killed by rising water in the impounded Columbia River upstream of the blockage, we find (1) the two drowned trees and the buried tree died the same year, and (2) the age of tree death, and hence the landslide (determined by combined results of nine radiocarbon analyses of samples from the three trees), falls within AD 1421–1455 (3σ confidence interval). This result provides temporal context for the tremendous physical, ecological, and cultural effects of the landslide, as well as possible triggering mechanisms. The age precludes the last Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake of AD 1700 as a landslide trigger, but not earlier subduction zone or local crustal earthquakes.

Time-series cross-section (TSCS) data are prevalent in political science, yet many distinct challenges presented by TSCS data remain underaddressed. We focus on how dependence in both space and time complicates estimating either spatial or temporal dependence, dynamics, and effects. Little is known about how modeling one of temporal or cross-sectional dependence well while neglecting the other affects results in TSCS analysis. We demonstrate analytically and through simulations how misspecification of either temporal or spatial dependence inflates estimates of the other dimension’s dependence and thereby induces biased estimates and tests of other covariate effects. Therefore, we recommend the spatiotemporal autoregressive distributed lag (STADL) model with distributed lags in both space and time as an effective general starting point for TSCS model specification. We illustrate with two example reanalyses and provide R code to facilitate researchers’ implementation—from automation of common spatial-weights matrices (W) through estimated spatiotemporal effects/response calculations—for their own TSCS analyses.

Deliberation is widely believed to enhance democracy by helping to refine the ‘public will’, moving its participants' policy attitudes closer to their ‘full-consideration’ policy attitudes – those they would hypothetically hold with unlimited information, to which they gave unlimited reflection. Yet there have also been claims that the social dynamics involved generally ‘homogenize’ attitudes (decreasing their variance), ‘polarize’ them (moving their means toward the nearer extreme), or engender ‘domination’ (moving their overall means toward those of the attitudes held by the socially advantaged) – attitude changes that may often be away from the participants' full-consideration attitudes and may thus distort rather than refine the public will. This article uses 2,601 group-issue pairs in twenty-one Deliberative Polls to examine these claims. Reassuringly, the results show no routine or strong homogenization, polarization, or domination. What little pattern there is suggests some faint homogenization, but also some faint moderation (as opposed to polarization) and opposition (as opposed to domination) – all as is to be expected when the outside-world forces shaping pre-deliberation attitudes are slightly more centrifugal than centripetal. The authors lay out a theoretical basis for these expectations and interpretations and probe the study's results, highlighting, among other things, deliberation's role in undoing outside-world effects on pre-deliberation attitudes and the observed homogenization's, polarization's, and domination's dependence on deliberative design.

OBJECTIVES/GOALS: The SARS-CoV-2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome CoronaVirus-2), which underlies the current COVID-19 pandemic, among other tissues, also targets the central nervous system (CNS). The goal of this study is to investigate mechanisms of neuroinflammation in Lipopolysaccharides (LPS)-treated mouse model and SARS-CoV-2-infected hamsters. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: In this research I will assay vascular reactivity of cerebral vessels to assess vascular dysfunction within the microcirculation. I will determine expression of proinflammatory cytokines, coagulation factors and AT1 receptors (AT1R) in isolated microvessels from the circle of Willis to assess inflammation, thrombosis and RAS activity in the microvasculature. LPS and SARS-CoV-2, are both associated with coagulopathies and because of that I will measure concentration of PAI-1, von Willebrand Factor, thrombin and D-dimer to assess the thrombotic pathway in the circulation. Histology and immunohistochemistry will assess immune cell type infiltration into the brain parenchyma, microglia activation and severity of neuroinflammation and neural injury. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: We hypothesize that under conditions of reduced ACE2 (e.g., SARS-CoV-2 infection), AT1R activity is upregulated in the microvasculature. In the presence of an inflammatory insult, these AT1Rs promote endothelialitis and immunothrombosis through pro-thrombotic pathways and pro-inflammatory cytokine production leading to endothelial dysfunction in the microvasculature, blood brain barrier (BBB) injury, deficits in cognition and increased anxiety. We will test this hypothesis through 2 aims: Aim 1: Determine the role of the pro-injury arm of the RAS in the pathophysiology of the brain in animal models of neuroinflammation and COVID-19. Aim 1: Determine the role of the protective arm of the RAS in the pathophysiology of the brain in animal models of neuroinflammation and COVID-19. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE: This study will provide insights that will complement on-going clinical trials on angiotensin type 1 receptor (AT1R) blockers (ARBs) in COVID-19. This research is a necessary first step in understanding mechanisms of brain pathogenesis that can set the groundwork for future studies of more complex models of disease.

OBJECTIVES/GOALS: Using the covariate-rich Veteran Health Administration data, estimate the association between Proton Pump Inhibitor (PPI) use and severe COVID-19, rigorously adjusting for confounding using propensity score (PS)-weighting. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: We assembled a national retrospective cohort of United States veterans who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, with information on 33 covariates including comorbidity diagnoses, lab values, and medications. Current outpatient PPI use was compared to non-use (two or more fills and pills on hand at admission vs no PPI prescription fill in prior year). The primary composite outcome was mechanical ventilation use or death within 60 days; the secondary composite outcome included ICU admission. PS-weighting mimicked a 1:1 matching cohort, allowing inclusion of all patients while achieving good covariate balance. The weighted cohort was analyzed using logistic regression. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: Our analytic cohort included 97,674 veterans with SARS-CoV-2 testing, of whom 14,958 (15.3%) tested positive (6,262 [41.9%] current PPI-users, 8,696 [58.1%] non-users). After weighting, all covariates were well-balanced with standardized mean differences less than a threshold of 0.1. Prior to PS-weighting (no covariate adjustment), we observed higher odds of the primary (9.3% vs 7.5%; OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.13-1.43) and secondary (25.8% vs 21.4%; OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.18-1.37) outcomes among PPI users vs non-users. After PS-weighting, PPI use vs non-use was not associated with the primary (8.2% vs 8.0%; OR 1.03, 95% CI 0.91-1.16) or secondary (23.4% vs 22.9%;OR 1.03, 95% CI 0.95-1.12) outcomes. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE: The associations between PPI use and severe COVID-19 outcomes that have been previously reported may be due to limitations in the covariates available for adjustment. With respect to COVID-19, our robust PS-weighted analysis provides patients and providers with further evidence for PPI safety.

OBJECTIVES/GOALS: Heart failure (HF) is a clinical condition that notably affects the lives of patients in rural areas. The partnering of a rural satellite hospital with an urban academic medical center may provide geographically underrepresented populations with HF an opportunity to access controlled clinical trials (CCTs). METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: We report our experience in screening, consenting and enrolling subjects at the VCU Health Community Memorial Hospital (VCU-CMH) in rural South Hill, Virginia, that is part of the larger VCU Health network, with the lead institution being VCU Health Medical College of Virginia Hospitals (VCU-MCV), Richmond, VA. Subjects were enrolled in a clinical trial sponsored by the National Institutes of Health (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT03797001) and assigned to treatment with an anti-inflammatory drug for HF or placebo. We used the electronic health record and remote guidance and oversight from the VCU-MCV resources using a closed-loop communication network to work with local resources at the facility to perform screening, consenting and enrollment. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: One hundred subjects with recently decompensated HF were screened between January 2019 and August 2021, of these 61 are enrolled to date: 52 (85 %) at VCU-MCV and 9 (15%) at VCU-CMH. Of the subjects enrolled at VCU-CMH, 33% were female, 77% Black, with a mean age of 5210 years. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE: The use of a combination of virtual/remote monitoring and guidance of local resources in this trial provides an opportunity for decentralization and access of CCTs for potential novel treatment of HF to underrepresented individuals from rural areas.

We honour a great man and a true giant. Lodewyk H.S. van Mierop (March 31, 1927 – October 17, 2021), known as Bob, was not only a Paediatric Cardiologist but also a dedicated Scientist. He made many significant and ground-breaking contributions to the fields of cardiac anatomy and embryology. He was devoted as a teacher, spending many hours with medical students, Residents, and Fellows, all of whom appreciated his regularly scheduled educational sessions. Those of us who were fortunate to know and spend time with him will always remember his great mind, his willingness to share his knowledge, and his ability to encourage spirited and fruitful discussions. His life was most productive, and he will long be remembered by many through his awesome and exemplary scientific contributions.

His legacy continues to influence the current and future generations of surgeons and all providers of paediatric and congenital cardiac care through the invaluable archive he established at University of Florida in Gainesville: The University of Florida van Mierop Heart Archive. Undoubtedly, with these extraordinary contributions to the fields of cardiac anatomy and embryology, which were way ahead of his time, Professor van Mierop was a true giant in Paediatric Cardiology. The invaluable archive he established at University of Florida in Gainesville, The University of Florida van Mierop Heart Archive, has been instrumental in teaching medical students, Residents, Medical Fellows, and Surgical Fellows. Only a handful of similar archives exist across the globe, and these archives are the true legacy of giants such as Dr. van Mierop. We have an important obligation to leave no stone unturned to continue to preserve these archives for the future generations of surgeons, physicians, all providers of paediatric and congenital cardiac care, and, most importantly, our patients.

This study examined how youth aggressive and delinquent externalizing problem behaviors across childhood and adolescence are connected to consequential psychosocial life outcomes in adulthood. Using data from a longitudinal, high-risk sample (N = 1069) that assessed children and their parents regularly from early childhood (ages 3–5) through adulthood, multilevel growth factors of externalizing behaviors were used to predict adult outcomes (age 24–31), providing a sense of how externalizing problems across development were related to these outcomes via maternal, paternal, teacher, and child report. Findings indicated strong support for the lasting connections between youth externalizing problems with later educational attainment and legal difficulties, spanning informants and enduring beyond other meaningful contributors (i.e., child sex, cognitive ability, parental income and education, parental mental health and relationship quality). Some support was also found, although less consistently, linking externalizing problems and later alcohol use as well as romantic relationship quality. Delinquent/rule-breaking behaviors were often stronger predictors of later outcomes than aggressive behaviors. Taken together, these results indicate the importance of the role youth externalizing behaviors have in adult psychosocial functioning one to two decades later.

The North American Waterfowl Management Plan highlights the importance of enhancing waterfowl habitat for productivity and resilience. Many forms of land management are conducted in wetlands to support the diverse communities of waterfowl and other species. Primary burrowing crayfish are also abundant and important in these environments, but little research is available assessing the effects of waterfowl land management on primary burrowers. We examined the response of the digger crayfish, Creaserinus fodiens, to the common vegetation management practices of mowing and disking at waterfowl conservation areas in south-eastern Missouri. Our results demonstrated that at a fine scale, crayfish density was affected by only canopy cover. We also highlighted distributional effects of landscape-level environmental variables and suggested that habitat generalists were tolerant of vegetation management, responding more to vegetation composition and broader landscape effects. We discuss wetlands conservation practices and suggest that burrowing crayfish management would integrate well with some current management strategies for waterfowl.

The distinct turbulence dynamics and transport modulated by a common seagrass species were investigated experimentally using a flexible surrogate canopy in a refractive-index-matching environment that enabled full optical access. The surrogate seagrass replicated the dynamic behaviour and morphological properties of its natural counterpart. The flows studied were subcritical with Froude numbers $Fr<0.26$ and concerned five Reynolds numbers $Re\in [3.4\times 10^{4}, 1.1\times 10^{5}]$ and Cauchy numbers $Ca\in [120, 1200]$. Complementary rigid canopy experiments were also included to aid comparative insight. The flow was quantified in wall-normal planes in a developed region using high-frame-rate particle image velocimetry. Results show that the deflection and coordinated waving motion of the blades redistributed the Reynolds stresses above and below the canopy top. Critically, in-canopy turbulence associated with the seagrass lacked periodic stem wake vortex shedding present in the rigid canopy, yet the flexible canopy induced vortex shedding from the blade tips. Inspection of spatial and temporal characteristics of coherent flow structures using spectral proper orthogonal decomposition reveals that Kelvin–Helmholtz-type vortices are the dominant flow structures associated with the waving motion of the seagrass and that modulated the local flow exchange in both rigid and flexible canopies. A barrier-like effect produced by the blade deflections blocked large-scale turbulence transport, thereby reducing vortex penetration into the canopy. In addition, we uncovered a transition from sweep-dominated to ejection-dominated behaviour in the surrogate seagrass. We hypothesise that the vortices created during the upward blade motion period play a major role in the sweep-to-ejection-dominated transition. Conditionally averaged quadrant analysis on the downward and upward blade motion supports this contention.

Only a small area of the Australian mainland was glaciated during the Pleistocene, whereas periglacial deposits are far more common, indicating that cold environments were extensive and a major influence on landscape evolution. Here we identify representative low-elevation examples of scree slopes and frost action, together with fans and valley fills, indicating pronounced erosion cycles during the Pleistocene. To date the deposits, we explore approaches using radiocarbon, optically stimulated luminescence, and profile dating using the cosmogenic nuclide 10Be. The radiocarbon and optical ages show that screes, alluvial valley fill, and fans were deposited between 66–13 ka during the coldest part of the last glacial cycle, and within the previous glacial cycle. Exposure dating indicates further landscape erosion cycles back to the mid Pleistocene. Together, the deposits indicate the frost cracking limit was ~1300 m lower at 680 ± 10 m and mean winter temperature was 8.2 ± 0.5°C colder than present. Periglacial conditions probably affected much of southeastern Australia. The treeless and dry conditions resulted in widespread erosion and increased run off. Combined with increased snow storage within catchments, rivers were paradoxically larger, with high seasonal discharge and sediment loads.