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5 results

  • Potential impacts of projected warming scenarios on winter wheat in the UK
  • Davide Cammarano, Bing Liu, Leilei Liu, Alexander C. Ruane, Yan Zhu
  • Journal: The Journal of Agricultural Science / Volume 159 / Issue 7-8 / September 2021
  • Published online by Cambridge University Press: 12 January 2022, pp. 511-522
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    The goals of this study are to analyse the impacts of 1.5 and 2.0°C scenarios on UK winter wheat using a combination of Global Climate Models (GCMs), crop models, planting dates and cultivars; to evaluate the impact of increased air temperature on winter wheat phenology and potential yield; to quantify the underlying uncertainties due to the multiple sources of variability introduced by climate scenarios, crop models and agronomic management. The data used to calibrate and evaluate three crop models were obtained from a field experiment with two irrigation amounts and two wheat cultivars that have different phenology and growth habit. After calibration, the model was applied to fifty locations across the wheat-growing area of the UK to cover all the main growing regions, with most points located in the main growing areas. Four GCMs, with two cultivars and five planting dates, were simulated at the end of the century. Results of this study showed that the UK potential wheat yield will increase by 2–8% under projected climate. Farmers will need to close such a gap in the future because it will have implications in terms of food security. Future climatic conditions might increase such a gap. Adaptation measures (e.g. moving the optimal planting time), along with climate-ready varieties bred for future conditions and with precision agriculture techniques can help to reduce this gap and ensure that the future actual UK wheat production will be close to the potential.

  • BMI and risk of all-cause mortality in normotensive and hypertensive adults: the rural Chinese cohort study
  • Qionggui Zhou, Xuejiao Liu, Yang Zhao, Pei Qin, Yongcheng Ren, Dechen Liu, Leilei Liu, Xu Chen, Feiyan Liu, Cheng Cheng, Chunmei Guo, Quanman Li, Gang Tian, Xiaoyan Wu, Ranran Qie, Minghui Han, Shengbing Huang, Lidan Xu, Ming Zhang, Dongsheng Hu
  • Journal: Public Health Nutrition / Volume 24 / Issue 17 / December 2021
  • Published online by Cambridge University Press: 16 April 2021, pp. 5805-5814
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    Objective:

    The impact of baseline hypertension status on the BMI–mortality association is still unclear. We aimed to examine the moderation effect of hypertension on the BMI–mortality association using a rural Chinese cohort.

    Design:

    In this cohort study, we investigated the incident of mortality according to different BMI categories by hypertension status.

    Setting:

    Longitudinal population-based cohort.

    Participants:

    17 262 adults ≥18 years were recruited from July to August of 2013 and July to August of 2014 from a rural area in China.

    Results:

    During a median 6-year follow-up, we recorded 1109 deaths (610 with and 499 without hypertension). In adjusted models, as compared with BMI 22–24 kg/m2, with BMI ≤ 18, 18–20, 20–22, 24–26, 26–28, 28–30 and >30 kg/m2, the hazard ratios for mortality in normotensive participants were 1·92 (95% CI 1·23, 3·00), 1·44 (95% CI 1·01, 2·05), 1·14 (95% CI 0·82, 1·58), 0·96 (95% CI 0·70, 1·31), 0·96 (95% CI 0·65, 1·43), 1·32 (95% CI 0·81, 2·14) and 1·32 (95% CI 0·74, 2·35), respectively, and in hypertensive participants were 1·85 (95% CI 1·08, 3·17), 1·67 (95% CI 1·17, 2·39), 1·29 (95% CI 0·95, 1·75), 1·20 (95% CI 0·91, 1·58), 1·10 (95% CI 0·83, 1·46), 1·10 (95% CI 0·80, 1·52) and 0·61 (95% CI 0·40, 0·94), respectively. The risk of mortality was lower in individuals with hypertension with overweight or obesity v. normal weight, especially in older hypertensives (≥60 years old). Sensitivity analyses gave consistent results for both normotensive and hypertensive participants.

    Conclusions:

    Low BMI was significantly associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality regardless of hypertension status in rural Chinese adults, but high BMI decreased the mortality risk among individuals with hypertension, especially in older hypertensives.

  • Chinese visceral adiposity index, a novel indicator of visceral obesity for assessing the risk of incident hypertension in a prospective cohort study
  • Minghui Han, Ranran Qie, Quanman Li, Leilei Liu, Shengbing Huang, Xiaoyan Wu, Dongdong Zhang, Cheng Cheng, Yang Zhao, Dechen Liu, Chunmei Guo, Qionggui Zhou, Gang Tian, Yanyan Zhang, Yuying Wu, Yang Li, Xingjin Yang, Yang Zhao, Yifei Feng, Pei Qin, Fulan Hu, Ming Zhang, Dongsheng Hu
  • Journal: British Journal of Nutrition / Volume 126 / Issue 4 / 28 August 2021
  • Published online by Cambridge University Press: 04 November 2020, pp. 612-620
  • Print publication: 28 August 2021
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    The present study aimed to investigate the association of the Chinese visceral adiposity index (CVAI) and its 6-year change with hypertension risk and compare the ability of CVAI and other obesity indices to predict hypertension based on the Rural Chinese Cohort Study. Study participants were randomly recruited by a cluster sampling procedure, and 10 304 participants ≥18 years were included. Modified Poisson regression was used to derive adjusted relative risks (RR) and 95 % CI. We identified 2072 hypertension cases during a median of 6·03 years of follow-up. The RR for the highest v. lowest CVAI quartile were 1·29 (95 % CI 1·05, 1·59) for men and 1·53 (95 % CI 1·22, 1·91) for women. Per-sd increase in CVAI was associated with hypertension for both men (RR 1·09, 95 % CI 1·02, 1·16) and women (RR 1·14, 95 % CI 1·06, 1·22). Also, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve value for hypertension was higher for CVAI than the four other obesity indices for both sexes (all P < 0·05). Finally, per-sd increase in CVAI change was associated with hypertension for both men (RR 1·26, 95 % CI 1·16, 1·36) and women (RR 1·23, 95 % CI 1·15, 1·30). Similar results were observed in sensitivity analyses. CVAI and its 6-year change are positively associated with hypertension risk. CVAI has better performance in predicting hypertension than other visceral obesity indices for both sexes. The current findings suggest CVAI as a reliable and applicable predictor of hypertension in rural Chinese adults.

  • Dose–response association between sugar- and artificially sweetened beverage consumption and the risk of metabolic syndrome: a meta-analysis of population-based epidemiological studies
  • Xiao Zhang, Xi Li, Leilei Liu, Feng Hong, Huan Zhao, Lulu Chen, Jun Zhang, Yuexu Jiang, Jiangping Zhang, Peng Luo
  • Journal: Public Health Nutrition / Volume 24 / Issue 12 / August 2021
  • Published online by Cambridge University Press: 28 October 2020, pp. 3892-3904
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    Objective:

    The associations between sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) and artificially sweetened beverage (ASB) consumption and the risk of metabolic syndrome (MetS) remain controversial. A quantitative assessment of dose–response associations has not been reported. This study aims to assess the associations between the risk of MetS and SSB, ASB, and total sweetened beverage (TSB, the combination of SSB and ASB) consumption by reviewing population-based epidemiological studies.

    Design:

    Meta-analysis.

    Setting:

    We searched PubMed, Embase and Web of Science databases prior to 4 November 2019, for relevant studies investigating the SSB–MetS and ASB–MetS associations. A random effects model was used to estimate pooled relative risks (RR) and 95 % CI. Dose–response association was assessed using a restricted cubic splines model.

    Participants:

    We identified seventeen articles (twenty-four studies, including 93 095 participants and 20 749 MetS patients).

    Results:

    The pooled RR for the risk of MetS were 1·51 (95 % CI 1·34, 1·69), 1·56 (1·32, 1·83) and 1·44 (1·19, 1·75) in high consumption group of TSB, SSB and ASB, respectively; and 1·20 (1·13, 1·28), 1·19 (1·11, 1·28) and 1·31 (1·05, 1·65) per 250 ml/d increase in TSB, SSB and ASB consumption, respectively. Additionally, we found evidence of non-linear, TSB–MetS and SSB–MetS dose–response associations and a linear ASB–MetS dose–response association.

    Conclusions:

    TSB, SSB and ASB consumption was associated with the risk of MetS. The present findings provide evidence that supports reducing intake of these beverages to lower the TSB-, SSB- and ASB-related risk of MetS.

  • Prevalence and relationship of hypertriglyceridaemic–waist phenotype and type 2 diabetes mellitus among a rural adult Chinese population
  • Yong-Cheng Ren, Yu Liu, Xi-Zhuo Sun, Bing-Yuan Wang, Yi Liu, Hu Ni, Yang Zhao, Dechen Liu, Xuejiao Liu, Dongdong Zhang, Feiyan Liu, Cheng Cheng, Leilei Liu, Xu Chen, Qionggui Zhou, Ming Zhang, Dongsheng Hu
  • Journal: Public Health Nutrition / Volume 22 / Issue 8 / June 2019
  • Published online by Cambridge University Press: 08 March 2019, pp. 1361-1366
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    Objective

    Limited information is available on the prevalence and effect of hypertriglyceridaemic–waist (HTGW) phenotype on the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in rural populations.

    Design

    In the present cross-sectional study, we investigated the prevalence of the HTGW phenotype and T2DM and the strength of their association among rural adults in China.

    Setting

    HTGW was defined as TAG >1·7 mmol/l and waist circumference (WC) ≥90 cm for males and ≥80 cm for females. Logistic regression analysis yielded adjusted odds ratios (aOR) relating risk of T2DM with HTGW.

    Participants

    Adults (n 12 345) aged 22·83–92·58 years were recruited from July to August of 2013 and July to August of 2014 from a rural area of Henan Province in China.

    Results

    The prevalence of HTGW and T2DM was 23·71 % (males: 15·35 %; females: 28·88 %) and 11·79 % (males: 11·15 %; females: 12·18 %), respectively. After adjustment for sex, age, smoking, alcohol drinking, blood pressure, physical activity and diabetic family history, the risk of T2DM (aOR; 95 % CI) was increased with HTGW (v. normal TAG and WC: 3·23; CI 2·53, 4·13; males: 3·37; 2·30, 4·92; females: 3·41; 2·39, 4·85). The risk of T2DM with BMI≥28·0 kg/m2, simple enlarged WC and simple disorders of lipid metabolism showed an increasing tendency (aOR=1·31, 1·75 and 2·32).

    Conclusions

    The prevalence of HTGW and T2DM has reached an alarming level among rural Chinese people, and HTGW is a significant risk factor for T2DM.