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Posttraumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) are common following traumatic stress exposure (TSE). Identification of individuals with PTSS risk in the early aftermath of TSE is important to enable targeted administration of preventive interventions. In this study, we used baseline survey data from two prospective cohort studies to identify the most influential predictors of substantial PTSS.
Self-identifying black and white American women and men (n = 1546) presenting to one of 16 emergency departments (EDs) within 24 h of motor vehicle collision (MVC) TSE were enrolled. Individuals with substantial PTSS (⩾33, Impact of Events Scale – Revised) 6 months after MVC were identified via follow-up questionnaire. Sociodemographic, pain, general health, event, and psychological/cognitive characteristics were collected in the ED and used in prediction modeling. Ensemble learning methods and Monte Carlo cross-validation were used for feature selection and to determine prediction accuracy. External validation was performed on a hold-out sample (30% of total sample).
Twenty-five percent (n = 394) of individuals reported PTSS 6 months following MVC. Regularized linear regression was the top performing learning method. The top 30 factors together showed good reliability in predicting PTSS in the external sample (Area under the curve = 0.79 ± 0.002). Top predictors included acute pain severity, recovery expectations, socioeconomic status, self-reported race, and psychological symptoms.
These analyses add to a growing literature indicating that influential predictors of PTSS can be identified and risk for future PTSS estimated from characteristics easily available/assessable at the time of ED presentation following TSE.
Giant coronary aneurysms are the most severe complications of Kawasaki disease. There are few reports of outcomes from China. Most previous studies were based only on absolute aneurysmal dimensions. The aim of the present study was to catalog the outcomes of Kawasaki disease with giant coronary aneurysms in southwest China based on absolute dimensions and the z-score adjusted for body surface area.
Methods and results:
All patients diagnosed with giant coronary aneurysms (z-score ≥ 10 or absolute dimension ≥ 8 mm) between December, 2002 and December, 2018 were included. We retrospectively analysed patient characteristics and clinical data from 38 patients with giant coronary aneurysms. Over a median follow-up period of 30.5 months (range from 1.7 months to 22.3 years), including patients in chronic phase who had been diagnosed prior to 2002, eight patients had myocardial infarction, including two deaths and one patient with coronary artery bypass grafting. The 1-, 2-, and 5-year event-free rates were 0.63, 0.63, and 0.53 for thrombosis, respectively, and 0.86, 0.81, and 0.81 for major adverse cardiac events, respectively. The 1-, 2-, and 5-year regression-free rates were 0.94, 0.85, and 0.67, respectively. A total of 73.7% of patients remained active.
In the early stages of Kawasaki disease, patients with giant coronary aneurysms often experience major cardiovascular events; however, they are also likely to have normalisation of the coronary internal luminal diameter. With long-term anticoagulation, close cardiologic monitoring, and prompt thrombolytic therapy, most patients can achieve disease-free periods.
This paper explores dependencies between operational risks and between operational risks and other risks such as market, credit and insurance risk. The paper starts by setting the regulatory context and then goes into practical aspects of operational risk dependencies. Next, methods of modelling operational risk dependencies are considered with a simulation study exploring the sensitivity of diversification benefits arising from dependency models. The following two sections consider how correlation assumptions may be set, highlighting some generic dependencies between operational risks and with non-operational risks to assist in the assessment of dependencies and correlation assumptions. Supplementary appendices provide further detail on generic dependencies as well as a case study of how business models can lead to operational risks interacting with other risks. Finally, the paper finishes with a literature review of operational risk dependency papers including correlation studies and benchmark reports.
In this article, Si nanoparticle (NP) films were prepared by pulsed laser ablation (PLA) in the argon atmosphere of 10 Pa at room temperature under different pulse repetition rates from 1 to 40 Hz without the baffle. Different from the conventional PLA method, the substrates were placed below and parallel to the ablated plume axis. The obtained films containing NPs were characterized by scanning electron microscopy and Raman spectrometer. The experimental results under constant laser fluence demonstrate the strong dependence of the mean size and the area number density of NPs on the repetition rate. Specifically, with the increase of pulse repetition rate, the mean size of the NPs in the film first decreases and reaches its minimum at 20 Hz, and then increases after 20 Hz, and decreases again till 40 Hz. The area number density shows the contrary trend versus mean size. The in situ diagnostic results of Langmuir probe denote the ablated Si ion density increases monotonously with the increase of repetition rate, while the temperature is almost constant. Combining with the nucleation probability, the growth/aggregation duration of NPs in the “nucleation region” and the effect of the baffle, the influence of pulse repetition rate on the formation of NPs is addressed. It is found that the repetition rate impacts the growth modes of NPs (i.e., growth and aggregation). 1–20, 20–30, and 30–40 Hz, respectively, correspond to growth-, aggregation-, and growth-controlled rate ranges without the baffle; however, 1–10, 10–20, and 20–40 Hz, respectively, correspond to growth-controlled, aggregation/growth-coexisted, and aggregation-controlled rate ranges with the baffle.
This study investigated the effect of forage type (grass or red clover) and harvesting time (primary growth or regrowth) of silage on energy and N utilisation by sheep fed at maintenance level. Specifically, the assumption of constant loss of energy of digestible organic matter from energy losses in urine and CH4 applied in evaluation of silage metabolisable energy (ME) was investigated. Urinary excretion of high-energy phenolic compounds related to solubilisation of lignin was assumed to affect urinary energy (UE) losses from sheep fed highly digestible grass silage (GS). A total of 25 primary growth and regrowth silages of timothy (Phleum pratense) and meadow fescue (Festuca pratensis) grass mixtures and red clover (Trifolium pratense) samples collected in digestibility trials with sheep, including faecal and urine samples, were used for energy and N determinations. Urinary concentration of monophenolic compounds and CH4 emissions in vitro were also analysed. Daily faecal N output, CH4 yield (MJ/kg DM intake), proportion of CH4 energy in digestible energy (DE) and proportion of UE in DE were greater (P ≤ 0.03) in sheep fed red clover silage (RCS) than GS. Furthermore, less (P = 0.01) energy was lost as UE of DE in sheep fed primary growth GS compared with the other treatments. The relationship between UE and silage N intake or urinary N output for both silage types (i.e. grass v. red clover) was strong, but the fit of the regressions was better for GS than RCS. The CH4/DE ratio decreased (P < 0.05) and the UE/DE ratio increased (P < 0.05) with increasing organic matter digestibility in RCS. These relationships were not significant (P < 0.05) for the GS diets. The regression coefficient was higher (P < 0.05) for GS than RCS when regressing ME concentration on digestible organic matter. The results of this study imply that ME/DE ratio is not constant across first-cut GS of different maturities. The ME production response may be smaller from highly digestible first-cut GS but could not be clearly related to urinary excretion of monophenols derived from solubilisation of lignin. Furthermore, energy lost in urine was not clearly defined for RCS and was much more predictable for GS from silage N concentration.
The COllaborative project of Development of Anthropometrical measures in Twins (CODATwins) project is a large international collaborative effort to analyze individual-level phenotype data from twins in multiple cohorts from different environments. The main objective is to study factors that modify genetic and environmental variation of height, body mass index (BMI, kg/m2) and size at birth, and additionally to address other research questions such as long-term consequences of birth size. The project started in 2013 and is open to all twin projects in the world having height and weight measures on twins with information on zygosity. Thus far, 54 twin projects from 24 countries have provided individual-level data. The CODATwins database includes 489,981 twin individuals (228,635 complete twin pairs). Since many twin cohorts have collected longitudinal data, there is a total of 1,049,785 height and weight observations. For many cohorts, we also have information on birth weight and length, own smoking behavior and own or parental education. We found that the heritability estimates of height and BMI systematically changed from infancy to old age. Remarkably, only minor differences in the heritability estimates were found across cultural–geographic regions, measurement time and birth cohort for height and BMI. In addition to genetic epidemiological studies, we looked at associations of height and BMI with education, birth weight and smoking status. Within-family analyses examined differences within same-sex and opposite-sex dizygotic twins in birth size and later development. The CODATwins project demonstrates the feasibility and value of international collaboration to address gene-by-exposure interactions that require large sample sizes and address the effects of different exposures across time, geographical regions and socioeconomic status.
Hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) is an acute infectious disease caused by serotypes of the enterovirus (EV) family. HFMD reinfection occurs commonly in lack of cross-protection between different EV serotypes. In this study, we investigated the hazards of HFMD reinfection using Cox-proportional hazard model. Retrospective data of 95 209 HFMD cases in Wuhan during 2008–2015 was used. Kaplan–Meier survival methods and Cox-proportional hazard model were used to estimate the hazard probabilities. Of the all HFMD cases, about 2% experienced reinfection (1842/95 209). Kaplan–Meier curves revealed the reinfection risk sharply increased before 40 months from first infection. Higher hazards of reinfection were detected among those who were males, aged 3 years and below, scattered children, belonging to urban areas and first infected with coxsackievirus (CV)-A16 compared with their respective counterparts. Cox-proportional hazard model suggested that gender, age, group, living area and serotypes of first infection had significant effect on reinfection even after adjusting for potential confounding effects of other selected factors considered in the study. These results indicate that boys aged 3 years and below, especially those living in urban areas and first infected with CV-A16 are more prone to reinfection. Interventions should be imposed on these high-risk populations.
Introduction: Gastroenteritis accounts for 1.7 million emergency department visits by children annually in the United States. We conducted a double-blind trial to determine whether twice daily probiotic administration for 5 days, improves outcomes. Methods: 886 children aged 348 months with gastroenteritis were enrolled in six Canadian pediatric emergency departments. Participants were randomly assigned to twice daily Lactobacillus rhamnosus R0011 and Lactobacillus helveticus R0052, 4.0 x 109 CFU, in a 95:5 ratio or placebo. Primary outcome was development of moderate-severe disease within 14 days of randomization defined by a Modified Vesikari Scale score 9. Secondary outcomes included duration of diarrhea and vomiting, subsequent physician visits and adverse events. Results: Moderate-severe disease occurred in 108 (26.1%) participants administered probiotics and 102 (24.7%) participants allocated to placebo (OR 1.06; 95%CI: 0.77, 1.46; P=0.72). After adjustment for site, age, and frequency of vomiting and diarrhea, treatment assignment did not predict moderate-severe disease (OR, 1.11, 95%CI, 0.80 to 1.56; P=0.53). In the probiotic versus placebo groups, there were no differences in the median duration of diarrhea [52.5 (18.3, 95.8) vs. 55.5 (20.2, 102.3) hours; P=0.31], vomiting [17.7 (0, 58.6) vs. 18.7 (0, 51.6) hours; P=0.18], physician visits (30.2% vs. 26.6%; OR 1.19; 95% CI0.87. 1.62; P=0.27), or adverse events (32.9% vs. 36.8%; OR 0.83; 95%CI 0.62. 1.11; P=0.21). Conclusion: In children presenting to an emergency department with gastroenteritis, twice daily administration of 4.0 x 109 CFU of a Lactobacillus rhamnosus/helveticus probiotic does not prevent development of moderate-severe disease or improvements in other outcomes measured.
Whether monozygotic (MZ) and dizygotic (DZ) twins differ from each other in a variety of phenotypes is important for genetic twin modeling and for inferences made from twin studies in general. We analyzed whether there were differences in individual, maternal and paternal education between MZ and DZ twins in a large pooled dataset. Information was gathered on individual education for 218,362 adult twins from 27 twin cohorts (53% females; 39% MZ twins), and on maternal and paternal education for 147,315 and 143,056 twins respectively, from 28 twin cohorts (52% females; 38% MZ twins). Together, we had information on individual or parental education from 42 twin cohorts representing 19 countries. The original education classifications were transformed to education years and analyzed using linear regression models. Overall, MZ males had 0.26 (95% CI [0.21, 0.31]) years and MZ females 0.17 (95% CI [0.12, 0.21]) years longer education than DZ twins. The zygosity difference became smaller in more recent birth cohorts for both males and females. Parental education was somewhat longer for fathers of DZ twins in cohorts born in 1990–1999 (0.16 years, 95% CI [0.08, 0.25]) and 2000 or later (0.11 years, 95% CI [0.00, 0.22]), compared with fathers of MZ twins. The results show that the years of both individual and parental education are largely similar in MZ and DZ twins. We suggest that the socio-economic differences between MZ and DZ twins are so small that inferences based upon genetic modeling of twin data are not affected.
Jurisprudential regime theory is a legal explanation of decision-making on the U.S. Supreme Court that asserts that a key precedent in an area of law fundamentally restructures the relationship between case characteristics and the outcomes of future cases. In this article, we offer a multivariate multiple change-point probit model that can be used to endogenously test for the existence of jurisprudential regimes. Unlike the previously employed methods, our model does so by estimating the locations of many possible change-points along with structural parameters. We estimate the model using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, and use Bayesian model comparison to determine the number of change-points. Our findings are consistent with jurisprudential regimes in the Establishment Clause and administrative law contexts. We find little support for hypothesized regimes in the areas of free speech and search-and-seizure. The Bayesian multivariate change-point model we propose has broad potential applications to studying structural breaks in either regular or irregular time-series data about political institutions or processes.
To investigate the rate of occult neck disease in patients with metastatic squamous cell carcinoma to the parotid gland following parotidectomy and neck dissection.
A consecutive series of patients treated between 2000 and 2014 for metastatic squamous cell carcinoma to the parotid were analysed. Patients were included if they had no clinical or radiological evidence of neck disease. Pathology of parotidectomy and neck dissection specimens was reviewed. Other variables analysed included patient immune status, surgery type, complications, use of positron emission tomography scanning and treatment with radiotherapy.
Sixty-five patients had no clinical or radiological evidence of neck disease initially. Forty-six patients (70.8 per cent) underwent neck dissection. Occult neck disease was only found in 8 of the 46 patients (17.3 per cent). Occult neck disease was found more often in those with immunocompromise (5.7 vs 38.5 per cent, p = 0.003). Patients who were immunocompromised had a significantly worse disease-specific survival rate at five years (0 vs 92 per cent, p = 0.0001).
Occult neck disease was seen in 17.3 per cent of patients and immunosuppression was a significant predictor for this.
We analyzed birth order differences in means and variances of height and body mass index (BMI) in monozygotic (MZ) and dizygotic (DZ) twins from infancy to old age. The data were derived from the international CODATwins database. The total number of height and BMI measures from 0.5 to 79.5 years of age was 397,466. As expected, first-born twins had greater birth weight than second-born twins. With respect to height, first-born twins were slightly taller than second-born twins in childhood. After adjusting the results for birth weight, the birth order differences decreased and were no longer statistically significant. First-born twins had greater BMI than the second-born twins over childhood and adolescence. After adjusting the results for birth weight, birth order was still associated with BMI until 12 years of age. No interaction effect between birth order and zygosity was found. Only limited evidence was found that birth order influenced variances of height or BMI. The results were similar among boys and girls and also in MZ and DZ twins. Overall, the differences in height and BMI between first- and second-born twins were modest even in early childhood, while adjustment for birth weight reduced the birth order differences but did not remove them for BMI.
A trend toward greater body size in dizygotic (DZ) than in monozygotic (MZ) twins has been suggested by some but not all studies, and this difference may also vary by age. We analyzed zygosity differences in mean values and variances of height and body mass index (BMI) among male and female twins from infancy to old age. Data were derived from an international database of 54 twin cohorts participating in the COllaborative project of Development of Anthropometrical measures in Twins (CODATwins), and included 842,951 height and BMI measurements from twins aged 1 to 102 years. The results showed that DZ twins were consistently taller than MZ twins, with differences of up to 2.0 cm in childhood and adolescence and up to 0.9 cm in adulthood. Similarly, a greater mean BMI of up to 0.3 kg/m2 in childhood and adolescence and up to 0.2 kg/m2 in adulthood was observed in DZ twins, although the pattern was less consistent. DZ twins presented up to 1.7% greater height and 1.9% greater BMI than MZ twins; these percentage differences were largest in middle and late childhood and decreased with age in both sexes. The variance of height was similar in MZ and DZ twins at most ages. In contrast, the variance of BMI was significantly higher in DZ than in MZ twins, particularly in childhood. In conclusion, DZ twins were generally taller and had greater BMI than MZ twins, but the differences decreased with age in both sexes.
For over 100 years, the genetics of human anthropometric traits has attracted scientific interest. In particular, height and body mass index (BMI, calculated as kg/m2) have been under intensive genetic research. However, it is still largely unknown whether and how heritability estimates vary between human populations. Opportunities to address this question have increased recently because of the establishment of many new twin cohorts and the increasing accumulation of data in established twin cohorts. We started a new research project to analyze systematically (1) the variation of heritability estimates of height, BMI and their trajectories over the life course between birth cohorts, ethnicities and countries, and (2) to study the effects of birth-related factors, education and smoking on these anthropometric traits and whether these effects vary between twin cohorts. We identified 67 twin projects, including both monozygotic (MZ) and dizygotic (DZ) twins, using various sources. We asked for individual level data on height and weight including repeated measurements, birth related traits, background variables, education and smoking. By the end of 2014, 48 projects participated. Together, we have 893,458 height and weight measures (52% females) from 434,723 twin individuals, including 201,192 complete twin pairs (40% monozygotic, 40% same-sex dizygotic and 20% opposite-sex dizygotic) representing 22 countries. This project demonstrates that large-scale international twin studies are feasible and can promote the use of existing data for novel research purposes.
This review article provides the state-of-art research and developments of the rectenna device and its two main components – the antenna and the rectifier. Furthermore, the history, efficiency trends, and socioeconomic impact of its research are also featured.
The rectenna (RECTifying antENNA), which was first demonstrated by William C. Brown in 1964 as a receiver for microwave power transmission, is now increasingly researched as a means of harvesting solar radiation. Tapping into the growing photovoltaic market, the attraction of the rectenna concept is the potential for devices that, in theory, are not limited in efficiency by the Shockley–Queisser limit. In this review, the history and operation of this 40-year old device concept are explored in the context of power transmission and the ever increasing interest in its potential applications at terahertz frequencies, through the infrared and visible spectra. Recent modeling approaches that have predicted controversially high efficiency values at these frequencies are critically examined. It is proposed that to unlock any of the promised potential in the solar rectenna concept, there is a need for each constituent part to be improved beyond the current best performance, with the existing nanometer scale antennas, the rectification and the impedance matching solutions all falling short of the necessary efficiencies at terahertz frequencies. Advances in the fabrication, characterization, and understanding of the antenna and the rectifier are reviewed, and common solar rectenna design approaches are summarized. Finally, the socioeconomic impact of success in this field is discussed and future work is proposed.
We study a multiclass Markovian queueing network with switchover across a set of many-server stations. New arrivals to each station follow a nonstationary Poisson process. Each job waiting in queue may, after some exponentially distributed patience time, switch over to another station or leave the network following a probabilistic and state-dependent mechanism. We analyze the performance of such networks under the many-server heavy-traffic limiting regimes, including the critically loaded quality-and-efficiency-driven (QED) regime, and the overloaded efficiency-driven (ED) regime. We also study the limits corresponding to mixing the underloaded quality-driven (QD) regime with the QED and ED regimes. We establish fluid and diffusion limits of the queue-length processes in all regimes. The fluid limits are characterized by ordinary differential equations. The diffusion limits are characterized by stochastic differential equations, with a piecewise-linear drift term and a constant (QED) or time-varying (ED) covariance matrix. We investigate the load balancing effect of switchover in the mixed regimes, demonstrating the migration of workload from overloaded stations to underloaded stations and quantifying the load balancing impact of switchover probabilities.