The incidence of scarlet fever has increased dramatically in recent years in Chongqing, China, but there has no effective method to forecast it. This study aimed to develop a forecasting model of the incidence of scarlet fever using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. Monthly scarlet fever data between 2011 and 2019 in Chongqing, China were retrieved from the Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System. From 2011 to 2019, a total of 5073 scarlet fever cases were reported in Chongqing, the male-to-female ratio was 1.44:1, children aged 3–9 years old accounted for 81.86% of the cases, while 42.70 and 42.58% of the reported cases were students and kindergarten children, respectively. The data from 2011 to 2018 were used to fit a SARIMA model and data in 2019 were used to validate the model. The normalised Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the coefficient of determination (R2) and the root mean squared error (RMSE) were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the fitted model. The optimal SARIMA model was identified as (3, 1, 3) (3, 1, 0)12. The RMSE and mean absolute per cent error (MAPE) were used to assess the accuracy of the model. The RMSE and MAPE of the predicted values were 19.40 and 0.25 respectively, indicating that the predicted values matched the observed values reasonably well. Taken together, the SARIMA model could be employed to forecast scarlet fever incidence trend, providing support for scarlet fever control and prevention.

For a common micro-satellite, orbiting in a circular sun-synchronous orbit (SSO) at an altitude between 500 and 600km, the satellite attitude during off-nadir imaging and staring-imaging operations can be up to ±45 degree on roll and pitch angles. During these off-nadir pointing for both multi-trip operation and staring imaging operations, the spacecraft body is commonly subject to high-rate motion. This posts challenges for a spacecraft attitude determination subsystem called Gyro Stellar Inertial Attitude Estimate (GS IAE), which employs gyros and star sensors to maintain the required attitude knowledge, since star trackers will severely degrade attitude estimation accuracies when the spacecraft is subject to high-rate motion. This paper analyses the star motion-induced errors for a typical star tracker, models the star motion-induced errors to assess the performance impact on the attitude estimation accuracy, and investigates the adaptive extended Kalman filter design in the GS IAE while evaluating its effectiveness.

OBJECTIVES/GOALS: The SARS-CoV-2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome CoronaVirus-2), which underlies the current COVID-19 pandemic, among other tissues, also targets the central nervous system (CNS). The goal of this study is to investigate mechanisms of neuroinflammation in Lipopolysaccharides (LPS)-treated mouse model and SARS-CoV-2-infected hamsters. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: In this research I will assay vascular reactivity of cerebral vessels to assess vascular dysfunction within the microcirculation. I will determine expression of proinflammatory cytokines, coagulation factors and AT1 receptors (AT1R) in isolated microvessels from the circle of Willis to assess inflammation, thrombosis and RAS activity in the microvasculature. LPS and SARS-CoV-2, are both associated with coagulopathies and because of that I will measure concentration of PAI-1, von Willebrand Factor, thrombin and D-dimer to assess the thrombotic pathway in the circulation. Histology and immunohistochemistry will assess immune cell type infiltration into the brain parenchyma, microglia activation and severity of neuroinflammation and neural injury. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: We hypothesize that under conditions of reduced ACE2 (e.g., SARS-CoV-2 infection), AT1R activity is upregulated in the microvasculature. In the presence of an inflammatory insult, these AT1Rs promote endothelialitis and immunothrombosis through pro-thrombotic pathways and pro-inflammatory cytokine production leading to endothelial dysfunction in the microvasculature, blood brain barrier (BBB) injury, deficits in cognition and increased anxiety. We will test this hypothesis through 2 aims: Aim 1: Determine the role of the pro-injury arm of the RAS in the pathophysiology of the brain in animal models of neuroinflammation and COVID-19. Aim 1: Determine the role of the protective arm of the RAS in the pathophysiology of the brain in animal models of neuroinflammation and COVID-19. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE: This study will provide insights that will complement on-going clinical trials on angiotensin type 1 receptor (AT1R) blockers (ARBs) in COVID-19. This research is a necessary first step in understanding mechanisms of brain pathogenesis that can set the groundwork for future studies of more complex models of disease.

The fossil record is notoriously imperfect and biased in representation, hindering our ability to place fossil specimens into an evolutionary context. For groups with fossil records mostly consisting of disarticulated parts (e.g., vertebrates, echinoderms, plants), the limited morphological information preserved sparks concerns about whether fossils retain reliable evidence of phylogenetic relationships and lends uncertainty to analyses of diversification, paleobiogeography, and biostratigraphy in Earth's history. To address whether a fragmentary past can be trusted, we need to assess whether incompleteness affects the quality of phylogenetic information contained in fossil data. Herein, we characterize skeletal incompleteness bias in a large dataset (6585 specimens; 14,417 skeletal elements) of fossil squamates (lizards, snakes, amphisbaenians, and mosasaurs). We show that jaws + palatal bones, vertebrae, and ribs appear more frequently in the fossil record than other parts of the skeleton. This incomplete anatomical representation in the fossil record is biased against regions of the skeleton that contain the majority of morphological phylogenetic characters used to assess squamate evolutionary relationships. Despite this bias, parsimony- and model-based comparative analyses indicate that the most frequently occurring parts of the skeleton in the fossil record retain similar levels of phylogenetic signal as parts of the skeleton that are rarer. These results demonstrate that the biased squamate fossil record contains reliable phylogenetic information and support our ability to place incomplete fossils in the tree of life.

We report on experimental observation of non-laminar proton acceleration modulated by a strong magnetic field in laser irradiating micrometer aluminum targets. The results illustrate the coexistence of ring-like and filamentation structures. We implement the knife edge method into the radiochromic film detector to map the accelerated beams, measuring a source size of 30–110 μm for protons of more than 5 MeV. The diagnosis reveals that the ring-like profile originates from low-energy protons far off the axis whereas the filamentation is from the near-axis high-energy protons, exhibiting non-laminar features. Particle-in-cell simulations reproduced the experimental results, showing that the short-term magnetic turbulence via Weibel instability and the long-term quasi-static annular magnetic field by the streaming electric current account for the measured beam profile. Our work provides direct mapping of laser-driven proton sources in the space-energy domain and reveals the non-laminar beam evolution at featured time scales.

Background: Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) is a severe progressive neuromuscular disease. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence, healthcare resource utilization (HRU), and medical costs of DMD in Alberta. Methods: This retrospective study linked provincial healthcare administrative data to identify patients with DMD utilizing a modified diagnostic code algorithm, including males <30 years of age. Five-year (April 2012 to March 2017) prevalence estimates were calculated and all-cause direct HRU and costs were examined in the first-year post-diagnosis. Results: Overall, 111 patients (median age: 12.0 years (IQR 4.7-18.3)) with DMD were identified. The estimated five-year period prevalence was 35.72 (95% CI 31.88-39.91) per 100,000 persons. All-cause HRU in the first-year post-diagnosis included a mean (SD) of 0.48 (1.19) hospitalizations (length of stay: 9.37 days (36.47)), 3.96 (6.16) general practitioner visits, 28.52 (62.98) specialist visits, and 20.14 (16.49) ambulatory care visits. Mean (SD) all-cause direct costs were $18,868 ($29,206) CAD in the first-year post-diagnosis. Conclusions: Patients with DMD had multiple interactions with the healthcare system in the year following diagnosis, resulting in substantial direct medical costs. More effective treatment strategies are needed to improve health outcomes and reduce the burden of DMD.

The GaLactic and Extragalactic All-sky Murchison Widefield Array (GLEAM) is a radio continuum survey at 76–227 MHz of the entire southern sky (Declination $<\!{+}30^{\circ}$ ) with an angular resolution of ${\approx}2$ arcmin. In this paper, we combine GLEAM data with optical spectroscopy from the 6dF Galaxy Survey to construct a sample of 1 590 local (median $z \approx 0.064$ ) radio sources with $S_{200\,\mathrm{MHz}} > 55$ mJy across an area of ${\approx}16\,700\,\mathrm{deg}^{2}$ . From the optical spectra, we identify the dominant physical process responsible for the radio emission from each galaxy: 73% are fuelled by an active galactic nucleus (AGN) and 27% by star formation. We present the local radio luminosity function for AGN and star-forming (SF) galaxies at 200 MHz and characterise the typical radio spectra of these two populations between 76 MHz and ${\sim}1$ GHz. For the AGN, the median spectral index between 200 MHz and ${\sim}1$ GHz, $\alpha_{\mathrm{high}}$ , is $-0.600 \pm 0.010$ (where $S \propto \nu^{\alpha}$ ) and the median spectral index within the GLEAM band, $\alpha_{\mathrm{low}}$ , is $-0.704 \pm 0.011$ . For the SF galaxies, the median value of $\alpha_{\mathrm{high}}$ is $-0.650 \pm 0.010$ and the median value of $\alpha_{\mathrm{low}}$ is $-0.596 \pm 0.015$ . Among the AGN population, flat-spectrum sources are more common at lower radio luminosity, suggesting the existence of a significant population of weak radio AGN that remain core-dominated even at low frequencies. However, around 4% of local radio AGN have ultra-steep radio spectra at low frequencies ( $\alpha_{\mathrm{low}} < -1.2$ ). These ultra-steep-spectrum sources span a wide range in radio luminosity, and further work is needed to clarify their nature.

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is a group of immune-mediated disorders characterised by a chronic, relapsing-remitting inflammation predominantly affecting the gastrointestinal tract. IBD is incurable, affecting people in their most productive years. IBD is historically seen as a disease of Westernised nations although in recent times other countries have seen an exponential rise in cases. Although the exact pathogenesis remains unclear, evidence suggests that microbiota changes play a critical role in IBD pathogenesis. Over the past two decades, IBD has become one of the most studied human conditions linked to the gut microbiota. However, deciphering the intricate link between the gut microbiota and therapeutic efficacy remains elusive. This review will summarise the current evidence relating to the gut microbiota and its involvement in IBD pathogenesis as well as the impact of IBD treatments including pharmaceutical-, nutraceutical- and microbial-focused regimens on the gut microbiota.

The neurobiological basis of neuroticism in late-life depression (LLD) is understudied. We hypothesized that older depressed subjects scoring high in measures of neuroticism would have smaller hippocampal and prefrontal volumes compared with non-neurotic older depressed subjects and with nondepressed comparison subjects based on previous research. Non-demented subjects were recruited and were either depressed with high neuroticism (n = 65), depressed with low neuroticism (n = 36), or never depressed (n = 27). For imaging outcomes focused on volumetric analyses, we found no significant between-group differences in hippocampal volume. However, we found several frontal lobe regions for which depressed subjects with high neuroticism scores had smaller volumes compared with non-neurotic older depressed subjects and with nondepressed comparison subjects, controlling for age and gender. These regions included the frontal pole, medial orbitofrontal cortex, and left pars orbitalis. In addition, we found that non-neurotic depressed subjects had a higher volume of non-white matter hypointensities on T1-weighted images (possibly related to cerebrovascular disease) than did neurotic depressed subjects. Our finding that depressed subjects low in neuroticism had higher volumes of non-white matter hypointensities is consistent with prior literature on “vascular depression.” In contrast, the finding that those high in neuroticism had smaller frontal volume than depressed subjects low in neuroticism and never-depressed subjects highlight the importance of frontal circuitry in the subgroup of older depressed individuals with comorbid neuroticism. Together, these results implicate different neural mechanisms in older neurotic and non-neurotic depressed groups and suggest that multiple biological pathologies may lead to different clinical expressions of LLD.

To investigate the influences of dietary riboflavin (RF) addition on nutrient digestion and rumen fermentation, eight rumen cannulated Holstein bulls were randomly allocated into four treatments in a repeated 4 × 4 Latin square design. Daily addition level of RF for each bull in control, low RF, medium RF and high RF was 0, 300, 600 and 900 mg, respectively. Increasing the addition level of RF, DM intake was not affected, average daily gain tended to be increased linearly and feed conversion ratio decreased linearly. Total tract digestibilities of DM, organic matter, crude protein (CP) and neutral-detergent fibre (NDF) increased linearly. Rumen pH decreased quadratically, and total volatile fatty acids (VFA) increased quadratically. Acetate molar percentage and acetate:propionate ratio increased linearly, but propionate molar percentage and ammonia-N content decreased linearly. Rumen effective degradability of DM increased linearly, NDF increased quadratically but CP was unaltered. Activity of cellulase and populations of total bacteria, protozoa, fungi, dominant cellulolytic bacteria, Prevotella ruminicola and Ruminobacter amylophilus increased linearly. Linear increase was observed for urinary total purine derivatives excretion. The data suggested that dietary RF addition was essential for rumen microbial growth, and no further increase in performance and rumen total VFA concentration was observed when increasing RF level from 600 to 900 mg/d in dairy bulls.