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Given the increasing sensitivity of buyers in the richer countries towards quality of goods they consume, low-quality exports largely constrain export-growth of the developing countries. This Element documents the attempts to estimate cross-country quality variations and reviews the demand side and supply side explanations for the low-quality phenomenon. It examines how trade policies can incentivize export-quality upgrading, and discusses the underlying channels through which a reverse causality from export-quality upon within-country income or wage inequality may develop.
We investigate the shape and strength of the magnetic fabrics (anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) data) of various massive granitic plutons from different parts of India, using the eigenvalue method. The study aims to analyse eigenvalues and establish their relationship with various deformational attributes. It involves: (1) calculating eigenvectors and their corresponding eigenvalues from magnetic fabric datasets; (2) finding a link between the geometrical appearance of eigenvectors and the mechanistic issues involved with a specific deformation scenario; and (3) determining shape and strength parameters from the magnetic foliation data distribution.
The statistical analysis for the unimodal magnetic fabric dataset of orthorhombic symmetry class implies that the plane, consisting of intermediate (V2) and minimum (V3) eigenvectors with pole V1, accurately traces the instantaneous stretching axis (ISAmax) of a particular material flow system under a pure shear regime. Moreover, for the distributions of similar symmetry and modality, we infer that the rotational characteristics of eigenvectors with respect to a fixed coordinate cause a distinct shift of such planes (V2–V3) from the ISAmax of a steady-state flow system under simple shear, where a substantial amount of rotational strain is involved. However, our findings also suggest that variation in symmetry and modality of magnetic fabric data distribution of different studied granitoids can directly influence the relative disposition of V2–V3 with respect to the direction of ISAmax. We conclude that eigenvalue analysis of magnetic fabrics is a powerful approach, which can be utilized while studying the salient deformational aspects of any syntectonic massive granitic body.
The mobility of lighter species on the surface of interstellar dust grains plays a crucial role in forming simple through complex molecules. Carbon monoxide is one of the most abundant molecules, its surface diffusion on the grain surface is essential to forming many molecules. Recent laboratory experiments found a diverse range of diffusion barriers for CO on the grain surface, their use can significantly impact the abundance of several molecules. The impact of different diffusion barriers of CO, in the astrochemical models, is studied to understand its effect on the abundance of solid CO and the species for which it is a reactant partner. A gas-grain network is used for three different physical conditions; cold core and warm-up models with slow and fast heating rates. Two different ratios (0.3 and 0.5) between diffusion and desorption barrier are utilised for all the species. For each physical condition and ratio, six different models are run by varying diffusion barriers of CO. Solid CO abundance for the models with the lowest diffusion barrier yields less than 0.1% of water ice for cold clouds and a maximum of 0.4% for slow and fast warm-up models. Also, solid
in dense clouds is significantly overproduced (
of water). The abundance of H2CO and
showed an opposite trend, and HCOOH,
are produced in lower quantities for models with low diffusion barriers for CO. Considerable variation in abundance is observed between models with the high and low diffusion barrier. Models with higher diffusion barriers provide a relatively better agreement with the observed abundances when compared with the models having lower diffusion barriers.
This paper explores dependencies between operational risks and between operational risks and other risks such as market, credit and insurance risk. The paper starts by setting the regulatory context and then goes into practical aspects of operational risk dependencies. Next, methods of modelling operational risk dependencies are considered with a simulation study exploring the sensitivity of diversification benefits arising from dependency models. The following two sections consider how correlation assumptions may be set, highlighting some generic dependencies between operational risks and with non-operational risks to assist in the assessment of dependencies and correlation assumptions. Supplementary appendices provide further detail on generic dependencies as well as a case study of how business models can lead to operational risks interacting with other risks. Finally, the paper finishes with a literature review of operational risk dependency papers including correlation studies and benchmark reports.
Increasing global concern over the impact of climate change has recently led to public scrutiny over the adequacy of existing risk management practices by insurance companies and pension schemes in dealing with these challenges that potentially impact both individual actuaries and the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries generally. Most recently, the Prudential Regulation Authority has issued further guidance concerning its expectations for the UK insurance industry regarding the development of an approach to disclosure on and management of the financial risks from climate change, while a Parliamentary Committee has demanded public clarification from UK pension scheme trustees regarding their degree of engagement with incorporating climate-related financial risks into their investment decision-making. The aim of this paper is to identify the dominating factors of the current evolvement of UK insurance companies’ and pension schemes’ climate risk disclosure practices. This paper analyses both the nature and extent of changes in the risk reporting practices of these entities that have evolved in order to meet these demands for increased accountability. We first analyse relevant sections of latest annual reports produced by a sample of 15 UK insurance companies and 15 pension schemes. We find only limited alignment of insurance firm and pension scheme annual reports with the 11 specific Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosure’s (TCFD) recommended disclosures. We also examine what key financial risk and/or other organisational characteristics are most closely associated with the degree of alignment with TCFD specified disclosures related to governance, strategy, risk management and performance metrics. We find that incentives facing sample insurance companies to align their climate-related disclosures with TCFD recommendations are related to their management of reputation risk (measured on the basis of size and type of business). Whereas the incentives facing pension schemes are related to the desire to reduce information asymmetry (measured by liability risk) among their stakeholders concerning this issue. Further, consistent with a stakeholder theory explanation, it appears that only a minority of large, publicly listed insurance companies and large local government pension schemes are taking action to report on their actions to mitigate climate risk. We also discuss examples of best practice climate risk reporting. The implications for the actuarial profession in engaging with climate risk are discussed in line with the findings of the study.
Cyber Operational Risk: Cyber risk is routinely cited as one of the most important sources of operational risks facing organisations today, in various publications and surveys. Further, in recent years, cyber risk has entered the public conscience through highly publicised events involving affected UK organisations such as TalkTalk, Morrisons and the NHS. Regulators and legislators are increasing their focus on this topic, with General Data Protection Regulation (“GDPR”) a notable example of this. Risk actuaries and other risk management professionals at insurance companies therefore need to have a robust assessment of the potential losses stemming from cyber risk that their organisations may face. They should be able to do this as part of an overall risk management framework and be able to demonstrate this to stakeholders such as regulators and shareholders. Given that cyber risks are still very much new territory for insurers and there is no commonly accepted practice, this paper describes a proposed framework in which to perform such an assessment. As part of this, we leverage two existing frameworks – the Chief Risk Officer (“CRO”) Forum cyber incident taxonomy, and the National Institute of Standards and Technology (“NIST”) framework – to describe the taxonomy of a cyber incident, and the relevant cyber security and risk mitigation items for the incident in question, respectively.Summary of Results: Three detailed scenarios have been investigated by the working party:
∙ Employee leaks data at a general (non-life) insurer: Internal attack through social engineering, causing large compensation costs and regulatory fines, driving a 1 in 200 loss of £210.5m (c. 2% of annual revenue).
∙ Cyber extortion at a life insurer: External attack through social engineering, causing large business interruption and reputational damage, driving a 1 in 200 loss of £179.5m (c. 6% of annual revenue).
∙ Motor insurer telematics device hack: External attack through software vulnerabilities, causing large remediation / device replacement costs, driving a 1 in 200 loss of £70.0m (c. 18% of annual revenue).
Limitations: The following sets out key limitations of the work set out in this paper:
∙ While the presented scenarios are deemed material at this point in time, the threat landscape moves fast and could render specific narratives and calibrations obsolete within a short-time frame.
∙ There is a lack of historical data to base certain scenarios on and therefore a high level of subjectivity is used to calibrate them.
∙ No attempt has been made to make an allowance for seasonality of renewals (a cyber event coinciding with peak renewal season could exacerbate cost impacts)
∙ No consideration has been given to the impact of the event on the share price of the company.
∙ Correlation with other risk types has not been explicitly considered.
Conclusions: Cyber risk is a very real threat and should not be ignored or treated lightly in operational risk frameworks, as it has the potential to threaten the ongoing viability of an organisation. Risk managers and capital actuaries should be aware of the various sources of cyber risk and the potential impacts to ensure that the business is sufficiently prepared for such an event. When it comes to quantifying the impact of cyber risk on the operations of an insurer there are significant challenges. Not least that the threat landscape is ever changing and there is a lack of historical experience to base assumptions off. Given this uncertainty, this paper sets out a framework upon which readers can bring consistency to the way scenarios are developed over time. It provides a common taxonomy to ensure that key aspects of cyber risk are considered and sets out examples of how to implement the framework. It is critical that insurers endeavour to understand cyber risk better and look to refine assumptions over time as new information is received. In addition to ensuring that sufficient capital is being held for key operational risks, the investment in understanding cyber risk now will help to educate senior management and could have benefits through influencing internal cyber security capabilities.
Manganian andalusite occurs abundantly as porphyroblasts in manganiferous metasediments subjected to contact metamorphism under hornblende hornfels facies at the contact of a picrodolerite dyke near Manbazar, Purulia District, India. The Mn2O3 content of andalusite varies from 13.2% to 19.17%, corresponding to 14.8 and 21.14 mole per cent of ‘Mn2SiO5’ respectively. Based on the analysis showing maximum amount of Mn2O3 in andalusite, the mineral formula may be represented as follows:
Other minerals in the assemblage are muscovite, manganophyllite, spessartine, piemontite, quartz, braunite, hematite and rutile. The manganian andalusite is completely fresh and appears to have formed at the expense of spessartine, piemontite and braunite during contact metamorphism. The manganian andalusite probably formed at about 600°C at around 3 kbar pressure. This is another rare example of andalusite with very high Mn2O3 (and Fe2O3) as well as that of an occurrence of abundant manganian andalusite.
The discovery of the first electromagnetic counterpart to a gravitational wave signal has generated follow-up observations by over 50 facilities world-wide, ushering in the new era of multi-messenger astronomy. In this paper, we present follow-up observations of the gravitational wave event GW170817 and its electromagnetic counterpart SSS17a/DLT17ck (IAU label AT2017gfo) by 14 Australian telescopes and partner observatories as part of Australian-based and Australian-led research programs. We report early- to late-time multi-wavelength observations, including optical imaging and spectroscopy, mid-infrared imaging, radio imaging, and searches for fast radio bursts. Our optical spectra reveal that the transient source emission cooled from approximately 6 400 K to 2 100 K over a 7-d period and produced no significant optical emission lines. The spectral profiles, cooling rate, and photometric light curves are consistent with the expected outburst and subsequent processes of a binary neutron star merger. Star formation in the host galaxy probably ceased at least a Gyr ago, although there is evidence for a galaxy merger. Binary pulsars with short (100 Myr) decay times are therefore unlikely progenitors, but pulsars like PSR B1534+12 with its 2.7 Gyr coalescence time could produce such a merger. The displacement (~2.2 kpc) of the binary star system from the centre of the main galaxy is not unusual for stars in the host galaxy or stars originating in the merging galaxy, and therefore any constraints on the kick velocity imparted to the progenitor are poor.
The Toba ash occurs extensively in the Indian subcontinent and marks a ca. 74,000-yr-old event. In the Bay of Bengal and Indian Ocean it is about 10 cm thick, whereas in several alluvial basins, it is usually 1-3 m thick. The latter occurs in a partly reworked state but as nearly chemically pure first-cycle sediments, The ash has a broad northwesterly dispersal pattern. Samples of ash from the Indian subcontinent compare closely with the youngest (74,000 yr B.P.) Toba Tuff and the deep-sea Toba ash in bulk chemical composition, REE signature, and bubble-wall shard morphology. However, a more proximally located and thicker (2-5 m) ash-bed, from the alluvial basins in the gneissic area and close to east coast, has a lower magnitude negative Eu anomaly, possibly because of minor contamination by feldspathic silt. Quaternary sediments in the central Narmada and middle Son basins contain rich late and middle Pleistocene mammalian and cultural records. Based on the presence of the ash layer marker and stratigraphic relations, late Pleistocene sediments within the subcontinent can be correlated with those from central India and the deep sea.
A controversy currently exists regarding the number of Toba eruptive events represented in the tephra occurrences across peninsular India. Some claim the presence of a single bed, the 75,000-yr-old Toba tephra; others argue that dating and archaeological evidence suggest the presence of earlier Toba tephra. Resolution of this issue was sought through detailed geochemical analyses of a comprehensive suite of samples, allowing comparison of the Indian samples to those from the Toba caldera in northern Sumatra, Malaysia, and importantly, the sedimentary core at ODP Site 758 in the Indian Ocean—a core that contains several of the earlier Toba tephra beds. In addition, two samples of Toba tephra from western India were dated by the fission-track method. The results unequivocally demonstrate that all the presently known Toba tephra occurrences in peninsular India belong to the 75,000 yr B.P. Toba eruption. Hence, this tephra bed can be used as an effective tool in the correlation and dating of late Quaternary sedimentary sequences across India and it can no longer be used in support of a middle Pleistocene age for associated Acheulian artifacts.
This paper seeks to establish good practice in setting inputs for operational risk models for banks, insurers and other financial service firms. It reviews Basel, Solvency II and other regulatory requirements as well as publicly available literature on operational risk modelling. It recommends a combination of historic loss data and scenario analysis for modelling of individual risks, setting out issues with these data, and outlining good practice for loss data collection and scenario analysis. It recommends the use of expert judgement for setting correlations, and addresses information requirements for risk mitigation allowances and capital allocation, before briefly covering Bayesian network methods for modelling operational risks.
Large-signal (L-S) characterization of double-drift region (DDR) impact avalanche transit time (IMPATT) devices based on silicon designed to operate at different millimeter-wave (mm-wave) and terahertz (THz) frequencies up to 0.5 THz is carried out in this paper using an L-S simulation method developed by the authors based on non-sinusoidal voltage excitation (NSVE) model. L-S simulation results show that the device is capable of delivering peak RF power of 657.64 mW with 8.25% conversion efficiency at 94 GHz for 50% voltage modulation; whereas RF power output and efficiency reduce to 89.61 mW and 2.22% respectively at 0.5 THz for same voltage modulation. Effect of parasitic series resistance on the L-S properties of DDR Si IMPATTs is also investigated, which shows that the decrease in RF power output and conversion efficiency of the device due to series resistance is more pronounced at higher frequencies especially at the THz regime. The NSVE L-S simulation results are compared with well established double-iterative field maximum (DEFM) small-signal (S-S) simulation results and finally both are compared with the experimental results. The comparative study shows that the proposed NSVE L-S simulation results are in closer agreement with experimental results as compared to those of DEFM S-S simulation.
A large-signal model and a simulation technique based on non-sinusoidal voltage excitation are used to obtain the electric field snapshots from which the series resistance and related high-frequency properties of a 35 GHz Silicon Single-Drift Region (SDR) Impact Avalanche Transit Time (IMPATT) device have been estimated for different bias current densities. A novel method is proposed in this paper to determine the parasitic series resistance of a millimeter-wave IMPATT device from large-signal electric field snapshots at different phase angles of a full cycle of steady-state oscillation. The method is based on the depletion width modulation of the device under a large-signal condition. The series resistance of the device is also obtained from the large-signal admittance characteristics at threshold frequency. The values of series resistance of a 35 GHz SDR IMPATT diode obtained from the proposed method and the large-signal admittance method are compared with experimentally reported values. The results show that the proposed method provides better and closer agreement with the experimental value.
This paper analyses the effect of environmental standards on aggregate employment in the presence of a productivity effect in a multi-sector general equilibrium framework of an open economy. The productivity effect is generated among the skilled and unskilled workers as an improvement in the environmental quality improves their health, leading to an increase in their productivity. Though the productivity effect initially lowers labour demand as labour requirement per unit of production falls, a standard may raise employment depending on the parametric configurations. In this paper, we identify the role of this productivity effect on the change in employment and show that it may actually improve the chances of an employment expansion.
Dark patches of charnockitic rocks characterized by orthopyroxene occur within garnetiferous granite gneisses (leptynites) in a granulite-migmatite suite around the Chilka Lake, Orissa, within the Eastern Ghats belt in the Indian Precambrian. Analysis of structures of different scales observed in this terrain establishes the presence of three phases of deformation. S1 is pervasive in the metapelitic granulites (mainlykhondalite), while in the migmatite complex composed of leptynites, charnockites and quartzofeldspathic veins, S1 is present exclusively within the charnockite lenses and bands, and shows different stages of obliteration in the associated leptynites. Thus, the charnockite patches must be earlier than the surrounding migmatitic rocks. The charnockite patches and the surrounding leptynitic gneisses are chemically quite different and the two rock types are not related by any prograde or retrograde transformation. The shapes and disposition of charnockite patches in the mixed exposures are found to be largely controlled by the third phase of folding and locally associated shearing. The kinematics of this late deformation are not favourable for fluid ingress from deeper levels.
We carry out a Monte-Carlo simulation to study the formation of methanol on the grain surfaces. We found that the recombination efficiencies are strongly dependent on the extrinsic properties of the grain, such as the number of sites on the grain surface and the flux of the accreting matter. This uses the concept of effective grain surface (denoted through a factor α) area which changes as the grain is populated.
An allele of intersex (ix5) of Drosophila melanogaster has been characterized. The genetic analysis of the allele demonstrated that like other point mutations of ix, the ix5 allele also transformed diplo-X individuals into intersexes. The ix5 mutation also affects the arrangement of sex comb bristles on the forelegs of males, although they had morphologically nearly normal male genitalia. They often fail to display a sustained pattern of courtship activity when tested. Orcein-stained squash preparations of testes from ix5 males revealed a defect in spermatogenesis. Our results, taken together with those of McRobert & Tompkins (1985), indicate that the ix+ gene also functions in male sex determination.