For over two thousand years, the rise of new great powers has been accompanied by rising tension and conflict. Today, we are witnessing the greatest shifts of power with the rise of China, India and other Asian powers. Yet, instead of seeing rising geopolitical conflict and tension, we are seeing a remarkable degree of geopolitical calm in Asia.

Why are we witnessing this strange phenomenon? We can find many complex explanations. But one key explanation will be trade. The creation of the 1945 open liberal international trading order, first under the auspices of the GATT and later under the WTO, is one key reason for the geopolitical calm.

To understand the impact of this 1945 liberal trading order, look at the history of Germany and Japan in the twentieth century when they emerged not once, but twice, as great powers. The first time they emerged before World War II. Then the only means to acquire great power status were by conquering and colonizing as they were the only secure ways of obtaining natural resources and commodities. This explains why Japan overran most of Southeast Asia, one of the most resource-rich regions in the world. However, when Germany and Japan re-emerged as great powers after World War II, they did so peacefully. Why? Simple. They could go around the world and buy any commodities they needed. In return, they could export their products to any corner of the world.