Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Hostname: page-component-848d4c4894-pjpqr Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-06-16T10:11:40.554Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

1 - Explaining the Electoral Performance of Incumbents in Democracies

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  28 October 2009

Belén Barreiro
Affiliation:
Doctora Miembro of the Instituto Juan March and Advisor, Cabinet of the Spanish Prime Minister
José María Maravall
Affiliation:
Juan March Institute, Madrid
Ignacio Sánchez-Cuenca
Affiliation:
Juan March Institute, Madrid
Get access

Summary

Introduction

This chapter examines electoral performance for incumbents in democratic regimes. I explore whether parties in government lose and win votes for the outcomes produced under their mandates. In other words, the work investigates whether electoral support for incumbents depends on key economic, social, and political indicators. The study includes eighty-three democracies from the 1950s through 2000.

This chapter is structured as follows. I first discuss the state of the discipline, and I present the principal objectives of the research. Then I test three main hypotheses. First, electoral variations for ruling parties may not only depend on pure economic indicators, such as economic growth or inflation. Voters may also hold governments accountable for other policies. They may care about the role of the state in the economy, in particular the size of the state. Second, right-wing governments may be judged differently from left-wing governments. Citizens may reward conservative parties for fostering economic freedom and left-wing parties for increasing the size of the state. Third, accountability may work differently in rich and poor democracies. Voters may be more demanding in rich democracies or they may not be.

Accountability and Electoral Performance

The analysis of electoral performance for parties in government contributes to our understanding of how accountability works. Rulers are accountable when voters sanction them for their actions, making the probability of survival in office depend on their performance (Przeworski, Stokes, and Manin 1999).

Type
Chapter
Information
Controlling Governments
Voters, Institutions, and Accountability
, pp. 17 - 44
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2007

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Abramowitz, Alan I. 1995. “It's Abortion, Stupid: Policy Voting in the 1992 Presidential Election.” Journal of Politics 57: 176–86.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Anderson, Christopher J. 2000. “Economic Voting and Political Context: A Comparative Perspective.” Electoral Studies 19 (2/3): 151–70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Anderson, Christopher J., Silvia, M. Mendes, and Yuliya, V. Tverdova. 2004. “Endogenous Economic Voting: Evidence from the 1997 British Election.” Electoral Studies 23 (4): 683–708.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Atkeson, Lonna Rae, and Randall, W. Partin. 1995. “Economic and Referendum Voting: A Comparison of Gubernatorial and Senatorial Elections.” American Political Science Review 89 (1): 99–107.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barreiro, Belén. 2003. “Political Representation and the Nature of Policies: The Effects of Citizens' Views on Abortion Policies in the World's Democracies.” Unpublished manuscript.
Beck, Throsten, George, Clarke, Alberto, Groff, Philip, Keefer, and Patrick, Walsh. 2001. “New Tools in Comparative Political Economy: The Database of Political Institutions.” The World Bank Economic Review 15: 165–76.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Boix, Carles. 1998. Political Parties, Growth, and Equality: Conservative and Social Democratic Economic Strategies in the World Economy. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Budge, Ian, David, Robertson, and Derek, Hearl. 1987. Ideology, Strategy, and Party Change: Spatial Analysis of Post-War Election Programs in 19 Democracies. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carlsen, Fredrik. 2000. “Unemployment, Inflation, and Government Popularity: Are There Partisan Effects?Electoral Studies 19 (2): 141–50.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chappell, Henry W., and Linda, Gonçalves Veiga. 2000. “Economics and Elections in Western Europe: 1960–1997.” Electoral Studies 19 (2): 183–97.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cheibub, José Antonio, and Adam Przeworski. 1999. “Democracy, Elections, and Accountability for Economic Outcomes.” In Adam, Przeworski, SusanC. Stokes, C. Stokes, and Bernard, Manin (eds.), Democracy, Accountability, and Representation (pp. 222–49). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Cook, Elizabeth A., Ted, G. Jelen, and Clyde, Wilcox. 1994. “Issue Voting in Gubernatorial Elections: Abortion and Post-Webster Politcs.” Journal of Politics 56: 187–99.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Duch, Raymond, M., and Randy, Stevenson. 2005. “Context and the Economic Voting: A Multilevel Analysis.” Political Analysis 13 (4): 387–409.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Erikson, Robert S. 1976. “The Relationship between Public Opinion and State Policy: A New Look Based on Some Forgotten Data.” American Journal of Political Science 20 (1): 25–36.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fackler, Tim, and Tse-min, Lin. 1995. “Political Corruption and Presidential Elections, 1929–1992.” Journal of Politics 57 (4): 971–93.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fraile, Marta. 2005. Cuando la economía entra en el voto: el voto económico en España, 1979–1996. Madrid: Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas.Google Scholar
Hibbing, John R., and John, R. Alford. 1981. “The Electoral Impact of Economic Conditions: Who Is Held Responsible?American Journal of Political Science 25 (3): 423–39.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hibbs, Douglas A. 1987. The Political Economy of Industrial Democracies. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kiewiet, Roderick D. 2000. “Economic Retrospective Voting and Incentives for Policymaking.” Electoral Studies 19 (2/3): 427–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kone, Susan L., and Richard, F. Winters. 1993. “Taxes and Voting: Electoral Retribution in the American States.” Journal of Politics 55 (1): 22–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kuklinski, James H. 1978. “Representativeness and Elections: A Policy Analysis.” American Political Science Review 72 (1): 165–77.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S. 1988. Economics and Elections: The Major Western Democracies. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Lowry, Robert C., James, E. Alt, and Karen, E. Ferree. 1998. “Fiscal Policy Outcomes and Electoral Accountability in American States.” American Political Science Review 92 (4): 759–74.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Miller, Warren E., and Donald, E. Stokes. 1963. “Constituency Influence in Congress.” American Political Science Review 57: 45–56.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Monroe, Alan D. 1998. “Public Opinion and Public Policy, 1980–1993.” Public Opinion Quarterly 62: 6–28.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Munck, Gerardo L., and Jay, Verkuilen. 2002. “Conceptualizing and Measuring Democracy.” Comparative Political Studies 35 (1): 5–34.Google Scholar
Nickelsburg, Michael, and Helmut, Norpoth. 2000. “Commander-in-chief or Chief Economist? The President in the Eye of the Public.” Electoral Studies 19 (2/3): 313–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pacek, Alexander. 1994. “Macroeconomic Conditions and Electoral Politics in East Central Europe.” American Journal of Political Science 38 (3): 723–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pacek, Alexander, and Benjamin, Radcliff. 1995. “The Political Economy of Competitive Elections in the Developing World.” American Journal of Political Science 39 (3): 745–59.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Page, Benjamin I., and Robert, Y. Shapiro. 1992. The Rational Public: Fifty Years of Trends in Americans' Policy Preferences. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Paldam, Martin. 1991. “How Robust Is the Vote Function?: A Study of Seventeen Nations over Four Decades.” In Helmut, Norpoth, Michael, Lewis-Beck, and Jean-Dominique, Lafay (eds.), Economic and Politics: The Calculus of Support. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Powell, G. Bingham, and Guy, D. Whitten. 1993. “A Cross-National Analysis of Economic Voting: Taking Account of the Political Context.” American Journal of Political Science 37 (2): 391–414.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Przeworski, Adam, Susan, C. Stokes, and Bernard, Manin (eds.) 1999. Democracy, Accountability, and Representation. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Przeworski, Adam, Michael, E. Alvarez, José Antonio, Cheibub, and Fernando, Limongi. 2000. Democracy and Development. Political Institutions and Well-Being in the World, 1950–1990. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Remmer, Karen L. 1991. “The Political Impact of Economic Crisis in Latin America in the 1980s.” American Political Science Review 85 (3): 777–800.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Roberts, Kenneth M., and Erik, Wibbels. 1999. “Party Systems and Electoral Volatility in Latin America: A Test of Economic, Institutional, and Structural Explanations.” American Political Science Review 93 (3): 575–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stein, M. Robert. 1990. “Economic Voting for Governor and U.S. Senator: The Electoral Consequences of Federalism.” Journal of Politics 52 (1): 29–53.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stokes, Susan. 2001. Mandates and Democracy. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Uslaner, Eric M., and Margaret, M. Conway. 1985. “The Responsible Congressional Electorate: Watergate, the Economy, and Vote Choice in 1974.” The American Political Science Review 79 (3): 788–803.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Vreeland, James R. 2002. The IMF and Economic Development. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Warwick, Paul. 1992. “Economic Trends and Government Survival in West European Parliamentary Democracies.” American Political Science Review 86 (4): 875–87.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure coreplatform@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Available formats
×