Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- List of Contributors
- 1 Introduction
- 2 Integrated regional risk assessment and safety management: Challenge from Agenda 21
- 3 Risk analysis: The unbearable cleverness of bluffing
- 4 Aspects of uncertainty, reliability, and risk in flood forecasting systems incorporating weather radar
- 5 Probabilistic hydrometeorological forecasting
- 6 Flood risk management: Risk cartography for objective negotiations
- 7 Responses to the variability and increasing uncertainty of climate in Australia
- 8 Developing an indicator of a community's disaster risk awareness
- 9 Determination of capture zones of wells by Monte Carlo simulation
- 10 Controlling three levels of uncertainties for ecological risk models
- 11 Stochastic precipitation-runoff modeling for water yield from a semi-arid forested watershed
- 12 Regional assessment of the impact of climate change on the yield of water supply systems
- 13 Hydrological risk under nonstationary conditions changing hydroclimatological input
- 14 Fuzzy compromise approach to water resources systems planning under uncertainty
- 15 System and component uncertainties in water resources
- 16 Managing water quality under uncertainty: Application of a new stochastic branch and bound method
- 17 Uncertainty in risk analysis of water resources systems under climate change
- 18 Risk and reliability in water resources management: Theory and practice
- 19 Quantifying system sustainability using multiple risk criteria
- 20 Irreversibility and sustainability in water resources systems
- 21 Future of reservoirs and their management criteria
- 22 Performance criteria for multiunit reservoir operation and water allocation problems
- 23 Risk management for hydraulic systems under hydrological loads
17 - Uncertainty in risk analysis of water resources systems under climate change
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 18 January 2010
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- List of Contributors
- 1 Introduction
- 2 Integrated regional risk assessment and safety management: Challenge from Agenda 21
- 3 Risk analysis: The unbearable cleverness of bluffing
- 4 Aspects of uncertainty, reliability, and risk in flood forecasting systems incorporating weather radar
- 5 Probabilistic hydrometeorological forecasting
- 6 Flood risk management: Risk cartography for objective negotiations
- 7 Responses to the variability and increasing uncertainty of climate in Australia
- 8 Developing an indicator of a community's disaster risk awareness
- 9 Determination of capture zones of wells by Monte Carlo simulation
- 10 Controlling three levels of uncertainties for ecological risk models
- 11 Stochastic precipitation-runoff modeling for water yield from a semi-arid forested watershed
- 12 Regional assessment of the impact of climate change on the yield of water supply systems
- 13 Hydrological risk under nonstationary conditions changing hydroclimatological input
- 14 Fuzzy compromise approach to water resources systems planning under uncertainty
- 15 System and component uncertainties in water resources
- 16 Managing water quality under uncertainty: Application of a new stochastic branch and bound method
- 17 Uncertainty in risk analysis of water resources systems under climate change
- 18 Risk and reliability in water resources management: Theory and practice
- 19 Quantifying system sustainability using multiple risk criteria
- 20 Irreversibility and sustainability in water resources systems
- 21 Future of reservoirs and their management criteria
- 22 Performance criteria for multiunit reservoir operation and water allocation problems
- 23 Risk management for hydraulic systems under hydrological loads
Summary
ABSTRACT
A three-phase system framework is identified to assess uncertainty in the risk analysis of water resources systems under climate change. The uncertainty arises among others from the hydrometeorological inputs, such as precipitation and temperature, that are used for predicting extreme events (floods and droughts) under climate change. These inputs play an important role in the three system phases, namely planning, design, and operation. In this study, the hydrometeorological inputs under climate change are obtained by using downscaling models that use information from a general circulation model (GCM) output. The uncertainty is assessed by a new technique using a fuzzy approach. The methodology is illustrated by an example of uncertainty assessment in the risk analysis of a water resources system under climate change in a semi-arid region.
THREE-PHASE SYSTEM FRAMEWORK
A water resources system, such as a reservoir built for flood control or for water supply during severe droughts, may be described in three phases, namely planning, design, and operation. Planning phase of a water resources system must take into account multiple users, multiple purposes, and generally multiple criteria and/or objectives. Furthermore, in the planning phase, the emphasis also needs to be given to the system sustainability. A sustainable system should not only meet the present demands but should also consider future generations' demands. The notion of sustainability which is often described by non-numerical, qualitative, and philosophical means, may be found in more detail, for example, in Haimes (1992), Gleick et al. (1995), Plate (1993), and WCED (1987).
- Type
- Chapter
- Information
- Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 2002