Inevitably, for such an unusual corporate function, there has been a continuous low intensity debate about the value of scenarios. On at least three occasions, the board seriously considered discontinuing the practice. The first of these occurred immediately after Wack's retirement, when De Geus was instructed by Van Wachem to “bring it closer to the business.” The scenario team under Van der Heijden asked De Geus for six months to convince him of the use of scenarios. The fundamental lesson learned was that the scenarios are effective only when focused on the concerns of a specific client. De Geus concurred with the conclusion of the review that the lack of strategic implementation of insights gained from the scenario work reflected the quality of the CMD's engagement with the scenarios rather than the quality of the scenarios themselves. De Geus reported that “After Van Wachem was shown a review that claimed the scenarios had influenced the company's anticipation of ‘lighter’ barrels ahead of the competition, he changed his mind and became a staunch supporter of scenarios.”

Other observers have felt that scenarios do not provide anything “more than what I can read in the Financial Times.”