In contrast to the more secretive and ‘one-off’ practices of other firms, Shell has widely shared and disseminated its scenarios. Shell now regularly publishes its global and long-term energy scenarios, and these, together with several handbooks detailing the Shell scenario method, have been used as reference by other companies, governments, and international institutions. This widespread use of Shell materials suggests that the impact and influence of the Shell scenario practice extends well beyond the company.

Given the continuing relevance of Shell's scenario practice, an examination of the essence of the art, extracted from almost half a century's practice, offers a rich treasure trove for those interested in actionable foresight who seek to avoid the extremes of “interesting but useless” on the one hand and “useable but not very interesting” on the other.

Throughout its history, the Shell scenario practice has largely assumed that while the future cannot be predicted, it can be prepared for. The scenario ‘magic’ is not in the quality of the scenarios as a product but in the ability of the company to make effective use of the scenarios and to create additional value through linking the creation and use of the scenarios with other processes.

Scenarios have helped individual decision-makers as well as management teams to engage with uncertainty and to attend to important developments that lie beyond their sphere of expertise and influence.