The time to positivity (TTP) of blood cultures has been considered a predictor of clinical outcomes for bacteremia. This retrospective study aimed to determine the clinical value of TTP for the prognostic assessment of patients with Escherichia coli bacteremia. A total of 167 adult patients with E.coli bacteremia identified over a 22-month period in a 3500-bed university teaching hospital in China were studied. The standard cut-off TTP was 11 h in the patient cohort. The septic shock occurred in 27.9% of patients with early TTP (⩽11 h) and in 7.1% of those with a prolonged TTP (>11 h) (P = 0.003). The mortality rate was significantly higher for patients in the early than in the late group (17.7% vs. 4.0%, P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that an early TTP (OR 4.50, 95% CI 1.70–11.93), intensive care unit admission (OR 8.39, 95% CI 2.01–35.14) and neutropenia (OR 4.20, 95% CI 1.55–11.40) were independently associated with septic shock. Likewise, the independent risk factors for mortality of patients were an early TTP (OR 3.80, 95% CI 1.04–12.90), intensive care unit admission (OR 6.45; 95% CI 1.14–36.53), a Pittsburgh bacteremia score ⩾2 (OR 4.34, 95% CI 1.22–15.47) and a Charlson Comorbidity Index ⩾3 (OR 11.29, 95% CI 2.81–45.39). Overall, a TTP for blood cultures within 11 h appears to be associated with worse outcomes for patients with E.coli bacteremia.

HIV-1 drug resistance can compromise the effectiveness of antiretroviral therapy (ART). A survey of pretreatment HIV-1 drug resistance (PDR) was conducted in Lincang Prefecture of Yunnan Province. From 372 people living with HIV/AIDS initiating ART for the first time during 2017–2018, 322 pol sequences were obtained, of which 11 HIV-1 strain types were detected. CRF08_BC (70.2%, 226/322) was the predominant strain, followed by URF strains (10.6%, 34/322). Drug resistance mutations (DRMs) were detected among 34.2% (110/322) of the participants. E138A/G/K/R (14.3%, 46/322) and V179E/D/T (13.7%, 47/322) were the predominant DRMs. Specifically, E138 mutations commonly occurred in CRF08_BC (19.9%, 45/226). Among the DRMs detected, some independently conferred resistance, such as K65R (1.6%, 5/322), Y188C/F/L (0.9%, 3/322), K103N (0.6%, 2/322) and G190A (0.3%, 1/322), which conferred high-level resistance. The prevalence of PDR was 7.5% (95% CI: 4.6–10.3%) and the prevalence of non-nucleotide reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) resistance was 5.0% (95% CI: 2.6–7.4%), which is below the threshold (⩾10%) of initiating a public health response. In conclusion, HIV-1 genetic diversity and an overall moderate level of PDR prevalence were found in western Yunnan. PDR surveillance should be continually performed to decide whether a public health response to NNRTI resistance should be initiated.

Since December 2019, China has experienced a widespread outbreak of COVID-19. However, at the early stage of outbreak, investigations revealed a variety of patterns resulting in the transmission of COVID-19. Thus, it is essential to understand the transmission types and the potential for sustained human-to-human transmission. Moreover, the information regarding the characteristics of transmission helps in coordinating the current screening programme, and controlling and containing measures, and also, helps in deciding the appropriate quarantine duration. Thus, this investigation reports an outbreak of COVID-19 in a family residing in Wenzhou, Zhejiang, China during the month of January−February 2020.

Outbreaks of norovirus-associated gastroenteritis have been reported in schools in recent decades in China. For early warning and response to infectious disease outbreaks, the Shanghai Infectious Diseases Bud Event Surveillance System (IDBESS) was established in 2016. Bud event is a term used for the early sign of a potential infectious disease outbreak in public settings when the first few cases appear. This study aimed to describe the epidemiological characteristics of Norovirus-associated gastroenteritis bud events from June 2016 to December 2017 and to understand factors influencing the severity of events. Data were extracted from the IDBESS, supplemented by field investigations and school absence surveillance. In total, 189 bud events of Norovirus-associated gastroenteritis were reported in schools and kindergartens, affecting 3827 individuals and 52.38% happened in primary schools. The attack rate of Norovirus-associated gastroenteritis was 3.82% on average in students in the affected schools. In each event, case numbers varied between 5 and 148, with a median of 16. The duration of bud events lasted for 2 days on average. School absence happened in 47.93% (1797/3749) of affected students and the average duration of absence was 3.07 days. It was found that a longer delay before reporting was associated with a longer-lasting duration of bud event (OR = 2.25, 95% CI: 1.65, 3.07). In conclusion, ascribed to the sensitive threshold for alerting and the timely field investigation, the surveillance of bud events of Norovirus-associated gastroenteritis is effective in the control of Norovirus infection among preschool children and students in Shanghai.

Although patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) are known to be at high risk for developing bloodstream infections (BSI), the risk associated with lesser degrees of renal dysfunction is not well defined. We sought to determine the risk for acquiring and dying from community-onset BSIs among patients with renal dysfunction. A retrospective, population-based cohort study was conducted among adult residents without ESRD in the western interior of British Columbia. Estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFR) were determined for cases and incidence rate ratios (IRR) were calculated using prevalence estimates. Overall, 1553 episodes of community-onset BSI were included of which 39%, 32%, 17%, 9%, 2% and 1% had preceding eGFRs of ≥90, 60–89, 45–59, 30–44, 15–29 and <15 ml/min/m2, respectively. As compared to those with eGFR ≥60 ml/min/m2, patients with eGFR 30–59 ml/min/m2 (IRR 4.4; 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.9–4.9) and eGFR <30 ml/min/m2 (IRR 7.0; 95% CI 5.0–9.5) were at significantly increased risk for the development of community-onset BSI. An eGFR <30 ml/min/m2 was an independent risk factor for death (odds ratio 2.3; 95% CI 1.01–5.15). Patients with renal dysfunction are at increased risk for developing and dying from community-onset BSI that is related to the degree of dysfunction.

Hypertension is a common comorbidity in COVID-19 patients. However, the association of hypertension with the severity and fatality of COVID-19 remain unclear. In the present meta-analysis, relevant studies reported the impacts of hypertension on SARS-CoV-2 infection were identified by searching PubMed, Elsevier Science Direct, Web of Science, Wiley Online Library, Embase and CNKI up to 20 March 2020. As the results shown, 12 publications with 2389 COVID-19 patients (674 severe cases) were included for the analysis of disease severity. The severity rate of COVID-19 in hypertensive patients was much higher than in non-hypertensive cases (37.58% vs 19.73%, pooled OR: 2.27, 95% CI: 1.80–2.86). Moreover, the pooled ORs of COVID-19 severity for hypertension vs. non-hypertension was 2.21 (95% CI: 1.58–3.10) and 2.32 (95% CI: 1.70–3.17) in age <50 years and ⩾50 years patients, respectively. Additionally, six studies with 151 deaths of 2116 COVID-19 cases were included for the analysis of disease fatality. The results showed that hypertensive patients carried a nearly 3.48-fold higher risk of dying from COVID-19 (95% CI: 1.72–7.08). Meanwhile, the pooled ORs of COVID-19 fatality for hypertension vs. non-hypertension was 6.43 (95% CI: 3.40–12.17) and 2.66 (95% CI: 1.27–5.57) in age <50 years and ⩾50 years patients, respectively. Neither considerable heterogeneity nor publication bias was observed in the present analysis. Therefore, our present results provided further evidence that hypertension could significantly increase the risks of severity and fatality of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Porphyromonas gingivalis has been linked to the development and progression of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), and is considered to be a high-risk factor for ESCC. Currently, the commonly used methods for P. gingivalis detection are culture or DNA extraction-based, which are either time and labour intensive especially for high-throughput applications. We aimed to establish and evaluate a rapid and sensitive direct quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) protocol for the detection of P. gingivalis without DNA extraction which is suitable for large-scale epidemiological studies. Paired gingival swab samples from 192 subjects undergoing general medical examinations were analysed using two direct and one extraction-based qPCR assays for P. gingivalis. Tris-EDTA buffer-based direct qPCR (TE-direct qPCR), lysis-based direct qPCR (lysis-direct qPCR) and DNA extraction-based qPCR (kit-qPCR) were used, respectively, in 192, 132 and 60 of these samples for quantification of P. gingivalis. The sensitivity and specificity of TE-direct qPCR was 95.24% and 100% compared with lysis-direct qPCR, which was 100% and 97.30% when compared with kit-qPCR; TE-direct qPCR had an almost perfect agreement with lysis-direct qPCR (κ = 0.954) and kit-qPCR (κ = 0.965). Moreover, the assay time used for TE-direct qPCR was 1.5 h. In conclusion, the TE-direct qPCR assay is a simple and efficient method for the quantification of oral P. gingivalis and showed high sensitivity and specificity compared with routine qPCR.

This study aimed to investigate the clinical characteristics and to analyse the epidemiological features of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients during convalescence. In this study, we enrolled 71 confirmed cases of COVID-19 who were discharged from hospital and transferred to isolation wards from 6 February to 26 March 2020. They were all employees of Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University or their family members of which three cases were <18 years of age. Clinical data were collected and analysed statistically. Forty-one cases (41/71, 57.7%) comprised medical faculty, young and middle-aged patients (aged ⩽60 years) accounted for 81.7% (58/71). The average isolation time period for all adult patients was 13.8 ± 6.1 days. During convalescence, RNA detection results of 35.2% patients (25/71) turned from negative to positive. The longest RNA reversed phase time was 7 days. In all, 52.9% of adult patients (36/68) had no obvious clinical symptoms, and the remaining ones had mild and non-specific clinical symptoms (e.g. cough, sputum, sore throat, disorders of the gastrointestinal tract etc.). Chest CT signs in 89.7% of adult patients (61/68) gradually improved, and in the others, the lesions were eventually absorbed and improved after short-term repeated progression. The main chest CT manifestations of adult patients were normal, GGO or fibre streak shadow, and six patients (8.8%) had extrapulmonary manifestations, but there was no significant correlation with RNA detection results (r = −0.008, P > 0.05). The drug treatment was mainly symptomatic support therapy, and antibiotics and antiviral drugs were ineffective. It is necessary to re-evaluate the isolation time and standard to terminate isolation for discharged COVID-19 patients.

We present two complementary model-based methods for calculating the risk of international spread of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 from the outbreak epicentre. One model aims to calculate the number of cases that would be exported from an endemic country to disease-free regions by travellers. The second model calculates the probability that an infected traveller will generate at least one secondary autochthonous case in the visited country. Although this paper focuses on the data from China, our methods can be adapted to calculate the risk of importation and subsequent outbreaks. We found an average R0 = 5.31 (ranging from 4.08 to 7.91) and a risk of spreading of 0.75 latent individuals per 1000 travellers. In addition, one infective traveller would be able to generate at least one secondary autochthonous case in the visited country with a probability of 23%.

The current coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic offers a unique opportunity to conduct an infodemiological study examining patterns in online searching activity about a specific disease and how this relates to news media within a specific country. Google Trends quantifies volumes of online activity. The relative search volume was obtained for ‘Coronavirus’, ‘handwashing’, ‘face mask’ and symptom related keywords, for the United Kingdom, from the date of the first confirmed case until numbers peaked in April. The relationship between online search traffic and confirmed case numbers was examined. Search volumes varied over time; peaks appear related to events in the progression of the epidemic which were reported in the media. Search activity on ‘Coronavirus’ correlated well against confirmed case number as did ‘face mask’ and symptom-related keywords. User-generated online data sources such as Google Trends may aid disease surveillance, being more responsive to changes in disease occurrence than traditional disease reporting. The relationship between media coverage and online searching activity is rarely examined, but may be driving online behavioural patterns.

Mathematical modelling studies predicting the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have been used worldwide, but precisions are limited. Thus, continuous evaluation of the modelling studies is crucial. We investigated situations of virus importation in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) to assess effectiveness of a modelling study by Haider N et al. titled ‘Passengers’ destinations from China: low risk of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) transmission into Africa and South America’. We obtained epidemiological data of 2417 COVID-19 cases reported by 40 countries in SSA within 30 days of the first case confirmed in Nigeria on 27 February. Out of 442 cases which had travel history available, only one (0.2%) had a travel history to China. These findings underline the result of the model. However, the fact that there were numbers of imported cases from other regions shows the limits of the model. The limits could be attributed to the characteristics of the COVID-19 which is infectious even when the patients do not express any symptoms. Therefore, there is a profound need for all modelling researchers to take asymptomatic cases into account when they establish modelling studies.

The aim of this study was to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19 in the early stage of the epidemic and predict the expected number of new cases in Shahroud in Northeastern Iran. The R0 of COVID-19 was estimated using the serial interval distribution and the number of incidence cases. The 30-day probable incidence and cumulative incidence were predicted using the assumption that daily incidence follows a Poisson distribution determined by daily infectiousness. Data analysis was done using ‘earlyR’ and ‘projections’ packages in R software. The maximum-likelihood value of R0 was 2.7 (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.1−3.4) for the COVID-19 epidemic in the early 14 days and decreased to 1.13 (95% CI 1.03–1.25) by the end of day 42. The expected average number of new cases in Shahroud was 9.0 ± 3.8 cases/day, which means an estimated total of 271 (95% CI: 178–383) new cases for the period between 02 April to 03 May 2020. By day 67 (27 April), the effective reproduction number (Rt), which had a descending trend and was around 1, reduced to 0.70. Based on the Rt for the last 21 days (days 46–67 of the epidemic), the prediction for 27 April to 26 May is a mean daily cases of 2.9 ± 2.0 with 87 (48–136) new cases. In order to maintain R below 1, we strongly recommend enforcing and continuing the current preventive measures, restricting travel and providing screening tests for a larger proportion of the population.

At the present time, COVID-19 is spreading rapidly [1]. The global prevention and control of COVID-19 is focused on the estimation of the relevant incubation period, basic reproduction number (R0), effective reproduction number (Rt) and death risk. Although the prevention and control of COVID-19 requires a reliable estimation of the relevant incubation period, R0, Rt and death risk. Another key epidemiological parameter-asymptomatic ratio that provides strength and range for social alienation strategies of COVID-19, which is widely defined as the proportion of asymptomatic infections among all disease infections. In fact, the ratio of asymptomatic infection is a useful indicator of the burden of disease and a better measurement of the transmissibility of the virus. So far, people have not paid enough attention to asymptomatic carriers. The asymptomatic carriers discussed in this study are recessive infections, that is, those who have never shown symptoms after onset of infection. We will discuss three aspects: detection, infectivity and proportion of healthy carriers.

A novel coronavirus disease, designated as COVID-19, has become a pandemic worldwide. This study aims to estimate the incubation period and serial interval of COVID-19. We collected contact tracing data in a municipality in Hubei province during a full outbreak period. The date of infection and infector–infectee pairs were inferred from the history of travel in Wuhan or exposed to confirmed cases. The incubation periods and serial intervals were estimated using parametric accelerated failure time models, accounting for interval censoring of the exposures. Our estimated median incubation period of COVID-19 is 5.4 days (bootstrapped 95% confidence interval (CI) 4.8–6.0), and the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles are 1 and 15 days, respectively; while the estimated serial interval of COVID-19 falls within the range of −4 to 13 days with 95% confidence and has a median of 4.6 days (95% CI 3.7–5.5). Ninety-five per cent of symptomatic cases showed symptoms by 13.7 days (95% CI 12.5–14.9). The incubation periods and serial intervals were not significantly different between male and female, and among age groups. Our results suggest a considerable proportion of secondary transmission occurred prior to symptom onset. And the current practice of 14-day quarantine period in many regions is reasonable.

Even though the impact of COVID-19 in metropolitan areas has been extensively studied, the geographic spread to smaller cities is also of great concern. We conducted an ecological study aimed at identifying predictors of early introduction, incidence rates of COVID-19 and mortality (up to 8 May 2020) among 604 municipalities in inner São Paulo State, Brazil. Socio-demographic indexes, road distance to the state capital and a classification of regional relevance were included in predictive models for time to COVID-19 introduction (Cox regression), incidence and mortality rates (zero-inflated binomial negative regression). In multivariable analyses, greater demographic density and higher classification of regional relevance were associated with both early introduction and increased rates of COVID-19 incidence and mortality. Other predictive factors varied, but distance from the State Capital (São Paulo City) was negatively associated with time-to-introduction and with incidence rates of COVID-19. Our results reinforce the hypothesis of two patterns of geographical spread of SARS-Cov-2 infection: one that is spatial (from the metropolitan area into the inner state) and another which is hierarchical (from urban centres of regional relevance to smaller and less connected municipalities). Those findings may apply to other settings, especially in developing and highly heterogeneous countries, and point to a potential benefit from strengthening non-pharmaceutical control strategies in areas of greater risk.

Circulation of multiple dengue virus (DENV) serotypes in a locale has resulted in individuals becoming infected with mixed serotypes. This research was undertaken to study the clinical presentation, presence of DENV serotypes and serological characteristics of DENV infected patients with co-infections from three Provinces of Sri Lanka where DENV-1 and -2 predominated during the study. A reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction was performed on 1249 patient samples and 301 were positive for DENV (24.1%). DENV-1 was the predominant serotype detected in 137 (45.51%) followed by DENV-2 in 65 (21.59%), DENV-3 in 59 (19.6%) and DENV-4 in 4 (1.32%) patients with mono-infections. Thirty-three patients (10.96%) had DENV co-infections with two or more serotypes. The highest number of co-infections was noted between DENV-1 and DENV-2 (57.57%) suggesting co-infection is driven by the frequency of the circulating serotypes. Platelet counts were significantly higher in DENV co-infected patients although clinical disease severity or white blood cell count, packed cell volume or viraemia were not significantly different in the co-infected compared to the mono-infected patients. Thus co-infection with multiple DENV serotypes does occur but with the exception of improved platelet counts in co-infected patients, there is no evidence that clinical or laboratory measures of disease are altered.

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 epidemic, there is an ongoing debate and research regarding the possible ways of virus transmission. We conducted an epidemiological investigation which revealed a cluster of five COVID-19 cases, linked to playing squash at a sports venue in Maribor, Slovenia. Acquired data raises possibility that the transmission occurred indirectly through contaminated objects in changing room or squash hall or via aerosolisation in squash hall.