We study in detail the log-linear return approximation introduced by Campbell and Shiller (1988a). First, we derive an upper bound for the mean approximation error, given stationarity of the log dividend-price ratio. Next, we simulate various rational bubbles that have explosive conditional expectation, and we investigate the magnitude of the approximation error in those cases. We find that, surprisingly, the Campbell-Shiller approximation is very accurate even in the presence of large explosive bubbles. Only in very large samples do we find evidence that bubbles generate large approximation errors. Finally, we show that a bubble model in which expected returns are constant can explain the predictability of stock returns from the dividend-price ratio that many previous studies have documented.

DeMiguel, Garlappi, and Uppal (2009) report that naïve diversification dominates mean-variance optimization in out-of-sample asset allocation tests. Our analysis suggests that this is largely due to their research design, which focuses on portfolios that are subject to high estimation risk and extreme turnover. We find that mean-variance optimization often outperforms naïve diversification, but turnover can erode its advantage in the presence of transaction costs. To address this issue, we develop 2 new methods of mean-variance portfolio selection (volatility timing and reward-to-risk timing) that deliver portfolios characterized by low turnover. These timing strategies outperform naïve diversification even in the presence of high transaction costs.

This study uses Cremers and Petajisto’s (2009) method to separate active institutional investors from passive ones and shows that active investors can alleviate the anomalous comovement of stock returns. Focusing on 2 events linked to the excess comovement anomaly, Standard & Poor’s 500 Index additions and stock splits, I find that if an event stock has more active institutional investors trading in the post-event period, the anomalous comovement effect disappears. In contrast, if an event stock experiences a massive exit of active investors, this anomaly persists. The exit of active institutional investors also results in a strong price synchronicity effect.

This paper analyzes the loss allocation to first, second, and third loss positions in European collateralized debt obligation transactions. The quality of the underlying asset pool plays a predominant role for the loss allocation. A lower asset pool quality induces the originator to take a higher first loss position, but, in a synthetic transaction, a smaller third loss position. The share of expected default losses, borne by the first loss position, is largely independent of asset pool quality but lower in securitizations of corporate loans than in those of corporate bonds. Originators with a good rating and low Tobin’s Q prefer synthetic transactions.

We study the role of financial strength on product market competition by examining exogenous shocks to a firm’s liability structure arising from asbestos litigation. We find that exogenous increases (decreases) in asbestos liabilities are interpreted by the market as negative (positive) news for a firm’s close competitors. These reactions are magnified in events in which one asbestos-tainted firm goes bankrupt and other asbestos-tainted stocks fall on the news of the bankruptcy. For smaller competitors, market reactions are more pronounced in more concentrated industries. Our findings support the general hypothesis that increases in fixed liabilities lead to more aggressive product market interactions.

When managing risk, frequently only imperfect hedging instruments are at hand. We show how to optimally cross-hedge risk when the spread between the hedging instrument and the risk is stationary. For linear risk positions we derive explicit formulas for the hedge error, and for nonlinear positions we show how to obtain numerically efficient estimates. Finally, we demonstrate that even in cases with no clear-cut decision concerning the stationarity of the spread, it is better to allow for mean reversion of the spread rather than to neglect it.

This paper examines whether a firm’s reputation is a determinant of repurchase completion rates (the ratio of actual to announced repurchases) and whether the stock market discounts announcements made by less reputable firms. Prior completion rates are positively correlated with current completion rates and announcement returns, suggesting consistency in repurchases and implying a reputational effect. Further, a nascent literature regarding accelerated share repurchases (ASRs) finds them to be more credible than open market repurchases. I show that the probability of announcing an ASR is greater for firms likely to be concerned about reputation because of low past completion rates.

Variation in idiosyncratic return volatility from 1978 to 2009 is attributable to discretionary accrual volatility and the correlation between premanaged earnings and discretionary accruals reflective of information quality across firms. These results are robust to controls for firm operating uncertainty, growth options, business-cycle variations, and firm age and industry effects, and they highlight the importance of managerial discretion in determining idiosyncratic volatility.

We examine the role of shareholder takeup in rights offerings on the subscription period price reaction and liquidity. Our results indicate that takeup information is reflected in price adjustments over the subscription period and that quality-related information disclosed on the rights announcement date further impacts prices in this period. Higher shareholder takeup improves liquidity. We do find some evidence of inefficiencies in the adjustment process over the subscription period that, in part, is consistent with a model where markets are characterized by overconfident investors and that also articulates with takeup information arriving in the market.

The estimation of dynamic no-arbitrage term structure models with a flexible specification of the market price of risk is beset by severe small-sample problems arising from the highly persistent nature of interest rates. We propose using survey forecasts of a short-term interest rate as an additional input to the estimation to overcome the problem. To illustrate the methodology, we estimate the 3-factor affine-Gaussian model with U.S. Treasury yields data and demonstrate that incorporating information from survey forecasts mitigates the small-sample problem. The model thus estimated for the 1990–2003 sample generates a stable and sensible estimate of the expected path of the short rate, reproduces the well-known stylized patterns in the expectations hypothesis tests, and captures some of the short-run variations in the survey forecast of the changes in longer-term interest rates.