This paper uses prospective data from the Matlab surveillance system in rural Bangladesh to demonstrate that initially co-resident spouses and sons have a major impact on the subsequent mortality of old people, with significant differences by the sex of the elderly person, and the age of the son. Spouses significantly reduce mortality by similar magnitudes for both elderly men and women. On the other hand, co-resident adult sons reduce mortality for elderly women much more than for elderly men, with younger sons being more beneficial than older sons. Furthermore, both married and unmarried females appear to benefit equally from co-resident adult sons. Finally, this analysis suggests that the impact of spouses and sons on mortality in old age is not substantially mediated through changes in elderly economic status.

A fertility survey of unmarried adolescents and young adults (953 males and 829 females) in Greater Accra and Eastern regions of Ghana revealed that a substantial proportion of the respondents were sexually experienced. Overall, 66·8% of the males and 78·4% of the females were sexually experienced. The mean ages (±SD) of the males and females were 15·5±2·5 and 16·2±2·0 years, respectively. Most respondents claimed to have received adequate information on reproductive health and sexually transmitted diseases (STDs), including AIDS. However, 20% and 30% of the respondents in peri-urban and rural areas, respectively, did not know that a girl could get pregnant the first time she has sexual intercourse. The incidence of pregnancy among the unmarried female respondents was relatively high (37%), and was higher in urban than in rural areas. Approximately 47% of those who had ever been pregnant reported that they had had an abortion. Levels of contraceptive awareness were high (98·2% among males and 95·5% among females) but many still engaged in unprotected sexual relations. The most commonly used methods were the condom and the pill. The main reasons given for non-use were that they did not think about contraception, were concerned about the safety of contraceptives, and partner objection. These findings point to the need for targeting of unmarried adolescents and young adults with information on reproductive health and family planning to increase their awareness of the risks of pregnancy, STDs and HIV infection.

Forty-five per cent of first marriages in Ethiopia end in divorce within 30 years, and two-thirds of women who divorce do so within the first 5 years of marriage. This paper looks at two factors that may have an impact on the risk of divorce in Ethiopia: early age of first marriage, and childlessness within the first marriage. Data used were from the 1990 National Family and Fertility Survey conducted by the Government of Ethiopia. A total of 8757 women of reproductive age (15–49) were analysed. Life table analysis was used to determine the median age at first marriage, first birth and the median duration of marriage. Cox models were analysed to determine the differentials of divorce. The results of this analysis showed that both early age at marriage and childlessness have a significant impact on the risk of divorce. An inverse relationship was found between age at marriage and risk of divorce. Having a child within the first marriage also significantly reduced the risk of divorce. In addition, several cultural and socioeconomic variables were significant predictors of divorce.

Nuptiality norms in rural Bangladesh favour birth during the teenage years. An appreciable proportion of teenage births are, in fact, second births. This study examines the relationship between teenage fertility and high infant mortality. It is hypothesized that if physiological immaturity is responsible, then the younger the mother, the higher would be the mortality risk, and the effect of mother's ‘teenage’ on mortality in infancy, particularly in the neonatal period, would be higher for the second than the first births. Vital events recorded by the longitudinal demographic surveillance system in Matlab, Bangladesh, in 1990–92 were used. Logistic regression was used to estimate the effects on early and late neonatal (0–3 days and 4–28 days respectively) and post-neonatal mortality of the following variables: mother's age at birth, parity, education and religion, sex of the child, household economic status and exposure to a health intervention programme.

The younger the mother, the higher were the odds of her child dying as a neonate, and the odds were higher for second children than first children of teenage mothers. First-born children were at higher odds of dying in infancy than second births if mothers were in their twenties. Unfavourable mother's socioeconomic conditions were weakly, but significantly, associated with higher odds of dying during late neonatal and post-neonatal periods. The results suggest that physical immaturity may be of major importance in determining the relationship between teenage fertility and high neonatal mortality.

This paper analyses mass media exposure and its effect on family planning in Bangladesh using data from the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS) 1993–94. The findings indicate that radio and television are two important mass media for disseminating family planning information in Bangladesh. However, access to them and exposure to family planning through them are still limited. Slightly more than 40% (42·1%) of respondents reported that they had heard family planning messages via radio, while 17·2% said television, 8·4% said poster and 5·4% said billboard. Respondent’s place of residence, education, economic status, geographical region and number of living children appeared to be the most important variable determining mass media exposure to family planning. Multivariate analysis shows that both radio and TV exposure to family planning messages and ownership of a radio and TV have a significant effect on current use of family planning methods. These factors remain significant determinants of contraceptive use, even after controlling socioeconomic and demographic factors. The study reveals that both socioeconomic development policies and family planning programmes with a special emphasis on mass media, especially radio, may have a significant effect on contraceptive use in Bangladesh. The principal policy challenge is to design communications strategies that will reach the less privileged, rural and illiterate people who are by far the majority in Bangladesh.

Women in India suffer from a high incidence of reproductive disease, disability and death. Very little work has been done on men, but a much higher incidence of sexual experience outside marriage and sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) among males than previously expected for this population is now being documented. In north India, women are dependent on their husbands and other family members for health-related decisions. Therefore, the behaviour, knowledge and attitudes of men are integral to the reproductive health status of couples there. This study explores knowledge about three distinct areas of reproductive health among 6549 married men in five districts of the northern state of Uttar Pradesh, India. Factors contributing to men's knowledge in the areas of fertility, maternal health and STDs were investigated. Results showed that very few men had basic knowledge in any of these areas. The likelihood of reporting knowledge was associated with a set of determinants that differed in their magnitude and effect across the areas of reproductive health explored. In particular, men's belief about the ability of an individual to prevent pregnancy demonstrated an independent association with men's knowledge. After controlling for factors such as age, parity and educational and economic status, men who believed it not possible to prevent a pregnancy were less likely to know when during the menstrual cycle women would become pregnant and certain facts about STDs, but they were more likely to be able to name two or more symptoms of serious maternal health conditions. Possible explanations for this trend are discussed.

The purpose of this study was to assess the utility of using maternal assessments of infant birth size as proxy measures for birth weight in Ecuador, a country in which a sizeable proportion of births take place at home, where birth weight is typically not recorded. Four thousand and seventy-eight women who experienced a live singleton birth between January 1992 and August 1994 were interviewed in the Ecuador Demographic and Maternal–Child Health Survey. All women were asked if their child was weighed at birth, his/her weight, and what they considered to be his/her birth size relative to other newborns. The consistency between birth size and birth weight measures was assessed, and the differences between infants with and without reported birth weights were explored. The authors conclude that maternal assessments of birth size are poor proxy indicators of birth weight. Estimates of low birth weight based on maternal assessments of birth size as very small should be recognized as underestimates of the actual prevalence of low birth weight. Moreover, infants for whom birth weights are missing should not be considered similar to those for whom weight was reported. Those without reported birth weights are more likely to be low birth weight. Thus, relying solely on reports of numeric birth weight will underestimate the prevalence of low birth weight.

In 1996, the Ministry of Health in Ghana included emergency contraception (EC) in its newly issued National Reproductive Health Service Policy and Standards. A short survey was conducted in the summer of 1997 to evaluate health providers' knowledge of EC. Of the 325 providers interviewed, about one-third (34%) had heard of EC. No provider had sufficient knowledge to prescribe EC correctly. A well-coordinated training programme for providers will have to precede successful introduction of EC in Ghana. Moreover, a dedicated product may be critical for the successful introduction of EC in a country like Ghana, where provider knowledge is low.

Infant and child mortality in the West Bank and Gaza Strip has steadily reduced since 1967, even though fertility has remained extremely high. In this paper the determinants of infant and child mortality are discussed, with particular emphasis on the role of consanguineous marriages, short birth spacing and maternal education. It is shown that short birth spacings and type of marriage are more important determinants of infant mortality than maternal education. Moreover, the relative role of consanguineous marriages appears to increase with time.

This study investigated the levels, trends and determinants of contraceptive use-failure in Matlab, Bangladesh, using a set of prospective data on 25,960 women of reproductive age. The data were extracted from the Record Keeping System (RKS) of Matlab for the period 1978–94. If there was any live birth during the use or within 7 months after the discontinuation of use, it was considered as a failure. The life table technique and hazard model were used as analytical tools. The results suggest that use-failure for pills, IUDs (TCu 200) and injectables and other temporary methods increased from 1978 to 1988, but began to decline after 1988. The cumulative probability of first-method failure within 1 year of method acceptance of the cohort of 1990–94 acceptors was 12·9% for pills, 2·0% for IUDs, 0·5% for injectables, 22·0% for condoms and 13·4% for ‘other’ methods (sampoon, foam, jelly and traditional methods). For pills, condoms and ‘other’ methods, the likelihood of failure declined with the duration of use; by contrast, the probability of an IUD failure increased over time, peaking at 3 years of use. The injectables maintained a low likelihood of failure regardless of the duration of use. The quality of Community Health Workers' (CHWs) performance was associated with the risk of failure of all temporary methods except condoms; women's background characteristics associated with failure varied by method. The effect of the quality of the CHWs' performance and the background variables on failure did not change much over time. It is felt that contraceptive failure deserves the serious attention of programme managers and policy makers to make the Bangladesh national family planning programme more successful.

Selection potential based on differential fertility and mortality has been computed for six tribal groups inhabiting different geo-climatic conditions, namely: Sahariya, Mina and Bhil of the State of Rajasthan, north-western India, and Munda, Santal and Lodha of the State of West Bengal, eastern India. Irrespective of the methodology, the total index of selection was found to be highest among Lodhas (0·668), followed by Sahariyas (0·524), Santals (0·462), Bhils (0·386), Mundas (0·353) and Minas (0·334). Incidently, Lodha and Sahariya are two of the seventy-four notified primitive tribal groups of India, and these two study populations show the highest index of total selection, mainly because of a higher embryonic and postnatal mortality.

The relative contribution of the fertility component to the index of total selection is higher than the corresponding mortality component in all tribal groups.

The analysis of postnatal mortality components indicates that childhood mortality constitutes the bulk of postnatal mortality, suggesting that children under 5 years need better health care in these tribal groups.

Menopause is associated with the general ageing process and marks the end of follicular depletion, a process that begins in the intrauterine stage and lasts throughout the lifetime of women until their reproductive senescence. Controversy persists about whether the age at menopause is sensitive to the ecological determinants prevailing during the lifecycle or whether it has a predominantly genetic component that would allow groups of women to be characterized with respect to particular menstrual characteristics manifested throughout their fertile life. By contrast, there is a definite secular trend in age at menarche in populations that have registered improvements in their environment: sexual maturation is closely associated with the general processes of growth and development. These aspects were analysed in a sample of Spanish women, mothers and daughters, born between 1883 and 1941. The results show (a) indications – although not conclusive – of a secular trend in the age at menopause, (b) a possible association between the age at menopause of mothers and their daughters, and (c) an association at the individual level between age at menarche, particular characteristics of ovarian function (fetal loss) and age at menopause. The reproductive ageing process therefore seems to result from the expression of the influence of ecological conditions in which the lifecycle of the women develops and of a degree of heritability that affects not only the age at menopause but also a range of characteristics of ovarian function.

This paper examines whether infant and child mortality risks among successive siblings are closely correlated, and if so, whether the survival status of the preceding child is an important factor affecting infant and child mortality in Kenya. The data were drawn from the 1988/89 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey. Logistic regression was used as the major method of data analysis. The results show that both infant and child mortality rates are significantly higher among subsequent children whose preceding siblings had died in infancy than for those whose preceding sibling had survived through infancy. The effect of the survival status of the preceding child on infant mortality was statistically strong, even after a large number of control variables were taken into account. However, its effect on child mortality appears to be spurious since it was rendered statistically insignificant when just a few control variables were introduced into the analysis. The results provide empirical evidence that infant and child mortality risks among successive siblings are closely correlated in Kenyan families, and that the effect of the survival status of the preceding child is important in determining infant mortality but not child mortality.

A survey of women in two highly developed rural counties of China, Sichuan and Jiangsu Provinces, was carried out in late 1991, to gain information about demographic and economic change between 1980 and 1990. Three separate surveys were conducted: the first a questionnaire administered to married women aged 30–39, eliciting information about childbearing and contraception, as well as the social and economic background of the respondents; the second, focus group interviews emphasizing the motivation for childbearing. Official information about the selected villages, townships and counties was also collected.

National level data in 1987 show that individual reproductive behaviour in China failed to conform to a universal, effectively implemented, population policy. They imply either a spatial range of policies, or great diversity in the demand for children, or perhaps a combination of both.

Such diversity in reproductive behaviour is also found in the study area. The purpose of the analysis was to examine the diversity in reproductive behaviour and contraceptive practice, and to discover whether differentials are influenced by area, or else exist between individuals within areas. If the former, then the explanation may be found in differences in policy formulation and implementation between areas: and if the latter, to demand for children, or else differential application of policy restrictions.

The main findings were that: (1) the explanation of the pattern of fertility and contraceptive use is to be found at the individual level (within locations) rather than in policy differences between administrative units; (2) the association between income and number of children is negative, as is that between income and the propensity for uniparous women to remain unsterilized. The theory that privilege may be exercised to gain concessions from birth planning cadres is therefore not supported; (3) ideal family size differentials are largely absent, showing that social (education) and economic (income, occupation) characteristics are not responsible for differences in reproductive motivations, and implying that the nature of the demand for children is very different from that in most rural areas of the Third World; (4) data on ideal family size by sex of the existing offspring indicate only a weak preference for sons.

The low demand for children, and the weak son preference, may both be explained by the social acceptability of uxorilocal marriages, and of village endogamy, together with the prohibitive costs of children, and especially of sons. This partly results from the expense of education, but most mothers emphasize marriage costs.

It is speculated that the circumstances responsible for the escalating costs of children in the two counties are likely to pertain in growing areas of the country, with the privatization of education and health services, the declining support of collective institutions, and the replacement of this function by kinship networks.

These on-going changes imply that any policy of reproductive restriction for the purposes of population control is likely soon to meet with diminishing resistance; and it may later be rendered unnecessary in the eyes of government officials, as fulfilled reproductive intentions lead to a fertility level below replacement level.

This study analyses factors associated with the incidence of sterilization regret in the four south Indian states of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu. Using data from the National Family Health Surveys, in all four states the incidence of regret was found to be less than 10% and the factors significantly associated with it were child loss experience and quality of services. Hence, there is a need to improve the quality of services, both in terms of counselling and service provision, and women need to be counselled about the permanent nature of sterilization in order to avoid future regret.

This study examines the association between a household's degree of vulnerability to food crisis and the incidence of deaths using primary survey data carried out to look at the demographic consequences of drought and famine in the drought-prone areas of northern Ethiopia. Retrospective data on the occurrences of deaths within a household were collected for the period 1984 to 1994. Consistent with previous studies, the findings confirm that mortality was clustered among the age groups 1–4 and 5–9 and varied considerably by famine and non-famine years. Enormous variation in incidence of deaths was also observed by region, ethnicity and religion. Most importantly, the analysis provides substantial evidence that the level of household vulnerability to food crisis is strongly related to the number of hunger-related deaths reported in a household.

As contribution to a recent debate (James, 1998; Murphy et al., 1997, 1998) the proportion of twins following ovulation induction (OI) or assisted conception (AC) in 1994 in Oxfordshire and West Berkshire was estimated, and by extrapolation the natural twinning rate in England and Wales was judged to have maintained a plateau phase since the 1970s. Similar figures for 1995 and 1996 from the same study, and hence a more stable local estimate, are now provided. The proportions, as before, were estimated from women's responses to a questionnaire within a case-control study, with ascertainment from general practitioners' records or hospital case-notes for non-responders or for those excluded from the study originally. In 1994, 1995 and 1996 the proportion of twins following OI/AC was overall 27% (24%, 30% and 27% respectively). Restriction to the 87% locally resident made no difference. The national crude twinning rate for those years was overall 13·3 per 1000 maternities (12·8, 13·6 and 13·4 respectively).

A sample of 871 currently married urban Bangladeshi women was used to assess the impact of mass media family planning programmes on current contraceptive use. The analyses suggested that radio had been playing a significant role in spreading family planning messages among eligible clients; 38% of women with access to a radio had heard of family planning messages while the figures for TV and newspaper were 18·5% and 8·5% respectively. Education, number of living children and current contraceptive use were important predictors of exposure to any mass media family planning messages. There was a negative relationship between breast-feeding and the current use of contraception indicating a low need for contraception among women who were breast-feeding.