This study examines the relationship between agricultural profits and farm household wealth across locations and farm sizes in U.S. agriculture. A multiperiod household model is used to develop hypotheses for testing. Results indicate that farmland has out-performed nonfarm investments over the past decade. Thus, households may want to keep their farmland to build wealth, even if it requires them to earn off-farm income. The analysis implies that decision will be made based on farm household wealth factors having little to do with agriculture.

One of the impacts of higher prices along with greater volatility in futures and basis is that there is pressure for an escalation in cash contracting for grain. This volatility has resulted in an unprecedented level of contracting with growers in recent years. There is a wide array of cash contracts with varying terms. There is also a growing realization of growers not delivering on contracts, in part due to escalation in postcontract prices. These are evolving as major strategic issues for buyers and the marketing system, particularly as buyers seek to use such contracting strategies as an element of risk mitigation. There are three purposes of this article. First is to provide a broad survey of contract terms used in grain contracting with growers. Second, we illustrate some issues in contracting of some of the grains (durum, malting barley) in the upper Midwest. Third, we show some of the common contract clauses being adapted in these contracts. Finally, we summarize these issues with respect to industry implications.

Although Vector Autoregressive models are commonly used to forecast prices, specification of these models remains an issue. Questions that arise include choice of variables and lag length. This article examines the use of Forecast Error Variance Decompositions to guide the econometrician's model specification. Forecasting performance of Variance Autoregressive models, generated from Forecast Error Variance Decompositions, is analyzed within wholesale chicken markets. Results show that the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition approach has the potential to provide superior model selections to traditional Granger Causality tests.

This paper considers how the welfare of U.S. sugar producers can be affected by the use of production controls in the presence of rising sugar imports and falling sugar prices, taking into account the negative externalities associated with U.S. sugar production. Even if production controls are used, producer welfare can be affected negatively under rising imports.

It is commonly asserted that speculative buying by index funds in commodity futures and over-the–counter derivatives markets created a “bubble“ in commodity prices, with the result that prices, and crude oil prices, in particular, far exceeded fundamental values at the peak. The purpose of this paper is to show that the bubble argument simply does not withstand close scrutiny. Four main points are explored. First, the arguments of bubble proponents are conceptually flawed and reflect fundamental and basic misunderstandings of how commodity futures markets actually work. Second, a number of facts about the situation in commodity markets are inconsistent with the existence of a substantial bubble in commodity prices. Third, available statistical evidence does not indicate that positions for any group in commodity futures markets, including long-only index funds, consistently lead futures price changes. Fourth, there is a historical pattern of attacks upon speculation during periods of extreme market volatility.

In order to estimate demand elasticities of source differentiated beef in South Korea, this study used the quantity of an endogenous demand system derived through maximizing the economic welfare of market participants including local beef consumers and local and foreign beef suppliers. The demand system is then weighted with respect to quality adjustment parameters to identify the effects of quality differences in source differentiated beef on market demand. As implied by the high relative price of locally produced “Hanwoo” beef, substitutability between local and imported beef is shown to be very weak and the own price elasticity of South Korean beef is shown to be inelastic. Related to quality differences between source differentiated beef, South Korean beef consumers show a preference for Australian beef relative to U.S. and Canadian beef, perhaps due to BSE concerns.

This study elicits preferences for multimedia in the classroom for students and faculty members in agricultural economics. Employing an Internet-based conjoint ranking survey, the results show that students prefer multimedia instructional tools over a traditional chalkboard/whiteboard lecture format while faculty members do not. Neither students nor faculty members are enthusiastic about electronic textbooks, and students will accept them only if they save $80. Finally, preferences for multimedia are shown to differ with students who self-report differing note-taking abilities, preferences for chalkboard lectures, and the need for an engaging class. Successful multimedia adoption requires appropriate use and lowering costs for students.

This paper examines three invited papers focused on commodity prices. Public responses to high nominal commodity prices and perceived increases in price risk have ranged from attempts to assign blame, attempts to change contracting arrangements, and development of public policy that “protects“ the market from future occurrences of unacceptable behavior. Interestingly, a result of increased commodity price volatility has suggested that futures markets no longer “work.“ This is ironic given that futures markets initially came into existence as tools for managing the negative impacts of commodity price risk. In response to perceptions of market failure some are looking for strategies to regulate the who and how of futures trading.

While state government spending on early education has grown in recent years, accessibility of preschool programs for rural children remains a problem. Using census-tract data from a nationally-representative data set on U.S. children, multinomial logit estimation reveals significant differences in early education experiences between rural and nonrural children. Both rural children and children of less-educated mothers are less likely to participate in preschool. This paper concludes by discussing the appropriate role of local, state, or federal governments in funding rural preschool programs. While early educational investments are being touted as effective economic development tools, the nature of the positive externalities associated with preschool makes it unlikely that any single rural community would invest in high-quality programs without state or federal assistance.

The behavior of agricultural commodity markets can arguably result in markedly asymmetric price cycles, that is, downward cycles of substantially different length and breadth than upward cycles. This study assesses whether asymmetric-cycle models can enhance the understanding of the dynamics and provide for a better forecasting of U.S. soybeans and Brazilian coffee prices. The forecasts from asymmetric cycle models are found to be substantially mode precise than those obtained from standard autoregressive models. The asymmetric cycle models also provide useful insights on the markedly different dynamics of the upward vs. the downward cycles exhibited by the prices of these two commodities.

Counter-seasonal imports of fresh produce facilitate year-round availability in the U.S. and may impact the seasonal structure of market price relationships. Vector autoregression analysis is used to determine the nature and extent of spatial price relationships among four geographically distinct regions in the U.S. fresh peach wholesale market. We evaluate differences in regional spatial price relationships and find statistical evidence that price relationships among regions are different in periods dominated by regional domestic supplies imports compared with periods when counter-seasonal imports dominate the market.

Community colleges likely draw to college individuals who would otherwise not attend due to their low costs and open admission requirements. This is labeled as the democratization effect. They may also divert individuals away from 4-year to terminal 2-year college degrees (the diversion effect). This study estimates democratization and diversion effects separately for nonmetropolitan and metropolitan youth using nationally representative data and models that account for endogenous institution selection. We find the democratization effect to exceed the diversion effect of community colleges for both metro and nonmetro youth. The democratization-diversion ratio is slightly higher for urban youth.

Noncognitive factors such as discipline (and its mirror, punishment in the form of discipline referrals) can affect school and labor market outcomes, human capital development, and thus the economic well–being of communities. It is well–known throughout the United States, but particularly in rural areas of the south that black males drop out of school more frequently than white males, face higher levels of unemployment, and are incarcerated at a disproportionate rate compared with their white cohorts. Also students in low–income homes were three times more likely to drop out than those from average–income homes and nine times more likely than students from high–income homes. This paper tests the hypothesis that the odds of a student being referred for disciplinary action in the middle school setting (8th grade) increases if the student is male, black, in special education classes, or is poor. We conclude that is indeed the case, with the exception of students assigned to special education classes. In particular, we find that low income students are up to eight times more likely to be sent for disciplinary referrals than others. We next tested the hypothesis that the gender and race of the teachers who refer students for disciplinary action have a significant impact on the first hypothesis. Here the evidence that there is a “color to discipline“ in this school district is weak.

One of the most critical elements of a nation's social infrastructure is its system of education. Concerns with accessibility, achievement, and choice are significant elements in determining the quality of life for all communities, but most especially for rural communities where resources, and in many cases, opportunities, are perceived to be less plentiful than for their urban and suburban counterparts.

The Renewable Fuel Standard mandates in the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 will require 36 billion gallons of ethanol to be produced in 2022. The mandates require that 16 of the 36 billion gallons must be produced from cellulosic feedstocks. The potential land use implications resulting from these mandates were examined using two methods, the POLYSYS model and a general equilibrium model. Results of the POLYSYS analysis indicated that 72.1 million tons of corn stover, 23.5 million tons of wheat straw, and 24.7 million acres would be used to produce 109 million tons of switchgrass in 2025 to meet the mandate. Results of the CGE analysis indicated that 10.9 billion bushels of corn grain, 71 million tons of corn stover, and 56,200 tons of switchgrass is needed to meet the mandate.

While agricultural economics literature has become rife with the economics of ethanol production and cellulosic ethanol feedstock production, little has been written about capital investment necessary for the magnitude of industry development mandated by the Energy Security and Independence Act of 2007. Financing the development of the ethanol industry to meet the 36 billion gallon production capacity set for 2022 (with 16 billion gallons from cellulosic ethanol) will require capital investments exceeding $100 billion for production facilities, plus extensive investment in feedstock establishment and transportation/handling infrastructure. Federal support associated with political mandates does not address all of the financial issues related with the development of the industry in such a relatively short timeframe. This article addresses the challenges associated with and the conditions necessary for achieving the private investment needed to expand the ethanol industry in the United States.