In general, tuberculosis (TB) is more common in men than women. However, for reasons currently not understood, women are 1·5–2 times more likely to report TB compared to men in Pashtun region (Afghanistan, adjacent provinces Pakistan and Iran). We explored whether or not gender disparity in TB notifications in the Pashtun region of Pakistan can be explained by Pashtun ethnicity. Using an ecological linear regression design, we estimated the effect of Pashtun ethnicity on female-to-male ratio (FMR) in TB notifications after adjusting for other determinants of women's health, in Pakistan. Districts with a high proportion of women of Pashtun ethnicity had a 44% (95% confidence interval 27–61) increase in FMR of notified TB cases compared to those with low proportions, after controlling for confounders. Genetic predisposition and distinct socio-cultural determinants could be possible causative factors. However, these hypotheses need further evaluation through rigorous longitudinal studies.

Parvovirus B19 (B19V) infection during pregnancy may have serious consequences like fetal anaemia, hydrops fetalis, and fetal loss. Since epidemiological data on B19V infection are generally lacking in Sudan, the current study aimed to determine the seroprevalence of B19V in Sudanese pregnant women. Five hundred women, attending antenatal clinics in Khartoum state between November 2008 and March 2009, were enrolled and screened for B19V IgG and IgM antibodies by enzyme immunoassays. The study revealed a B19V IgG seroprevalence of 61·4%, with one subject positive for IgM. B19V DNA was not detected by PCR in any of the tested individuals. B19V IgG seroprevalence was significantly correlated with multigravidity (P = 0·046). Our data showed that B19V infection is prevalent in Sudan and we recommend further studies in Sudanese women, particularly in those with complications and adverse outcomes of pregnancy.

The aim of the European Sero-Epidemiology Network 2 (ESEN2) project was to estimate age-specific seroprevalence for a number of vaccine-preventable diseases in Europe. To achieve this serosurveys were collected by 22 national laboratories. To adjust for a variety of laboratory methods and assays, all quantitative results were transformed to a reference laboratory's units and were then classified as positive or negative to obtain age-specific seroprevalence. The aim of this study was to assess the value of standardization by comparing the crude and standardized seroprevalence estimates. Seroprevalence was estimated for measles, mumps, rubella, diphtheria, varicella zoster and hepatitis A virus (HAV) and compared before and after serological results had been standardized. The results showed that if no such adjustment had taken place, seroprevalence would have differed by an average of 3·2% (95% bootstrap interval 2·9–3·6) although this percentage varied substantially by antigen. These differences were as high as 16% for some serosurveys (HAV) which means that standardization could have a considerable impact on seroprevalence estimates and should be considered when comparing serosurveys performed in different laboratories using different assay methods.

There is limited information on percent expenditure of household income due to childhood diarrhoea especially in rural Bangladesh. A total of 4205 children aged <5 years with acute diarrhoea were studied. Percent expenditure was calculated as total expenditure for the diarrhoeal episode divided by monthly family income, multiplied by 100. Overall median percent expenditure was 3·04 (range 0·01–94·35). For Vibrio cholerae it was 6·42 (range 0·52–82·85), for enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli 3·10 (range 0·22–91·87), for Shigella 3·17 (range 0·06–77·80), and for rotavirus 3·08 (range 0·06–48·00). In a multinomial logistic regression model, for the upper tertile of percent expenditure, significant higher odds were found for male sex, travelling a longer distance to reach hospital (⩾median of 4 miles), seeking care elsewhere before attending hospital, vomiting, higher frequency of purging (⩾10 times/day), some or severe dehydration and stunting. V. cholerae was the highest and rotavirus was the least responsible pathogen for percent expenditure of household income due to childhood diarrhoea.

There is limited evidence and lack of consensus whether second-hand smoke (SHS) increases risk of tuberculosis (TB), which has substantial implications for unrestricted smoking indoors and TB control policies. We aimed to establish the association between SHS and the risk of acquiring and worsening of TB in non-smokers. We identified 428 articles in the initial search and 12 comparative epidemiological studies met our inclusion criteria. Exposure to SHS was found to have a higher risk of TB infection [risk ratio (RR) 1·19, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0·90–1·57] compared to non-exposure; however, this did not reach statistical significance. There was marked variability (I2 = 74%, P = 0·0008) between studies’ results, which could be explained by the differences in the diagnostic criteria used. Exposure to SHS was found to be statistically significantly associated (RR 1·59, 95% CI 1·11–2·27) with the risk of TB disease. There was significant heterogeneity (I2 = 77%, P = 0·0006) between studies’ results, which was sourced to the internal characteristics of the studies rather than combining different study designs. We did not find any studies for SHS and TB treatment-related outcomes. Thus, we conclude that SHS exposure may increase the risk of acquiring TB infection and progression to TB disease; however, the evidence remains scanty and weak.

Multicomponent cyclicity in influenza (flu) incidence had been observed in various countries (e.g. periods T = 1, 2–3, 5–6, 8·0, 10·6–11·3, 13, 18–19 years) and its close similarity with cycles in natural environmental phenomena as meteorological factors and heliogeophysical activity (HGA) suggested. This report aimed at verifying previous results on cyclic patterns of flu incidence by exploring whether flu annual cyclicity (seasonality) and trans-year (13 to <24 months) and/or multiannual (long-term, ⩾24 months) cycles might be present. For this purpose, a relatively long monthly flu incidence dataset consisting of absolute numbers of new cases from the Grand Baku area, Azerbaijan, for the years 1976–2000 (300 months) was analysed. The exploration of underlying chronomes or, time structures, was done by linear and nonlinear parametric regression models, autocorrelation, spectral analysis and periodogram regression analysis. We analysed temporal dynamics and described multicomponent cyclicity, determining its statistical significance. The analysis, considering the flu data specifically stratified in three distinct intervals (1976–1990, 1991–1995, 1996–2000), and also combinations thereof, indicated that the main cyclic pattern was a seasonal one, with a period of T = 12 months. Further, a number of multiannual cycles with periods T in the ranges of 26–36, 62–85 or 113–162 months were observed, i.e. average periods of 2·5, 6·1 and 11·5 years, respectively. Indeed, most of these cycles correspond to similar cyclic parameters of HGA and further analyses are warranted to investigate such relationships. In conclusion, our study revealed the presence of multicomponent cyclic dynamics in influenza incidence by using relatively long time-series of monthly data. The specific cyclic patterns of flu incidence in Azerbaijan allows further, more specific modelling and correlations with environmental factors of similar cyclicity, e.g. HGA, to be explored. These results might contribute more widely to a better understanding of influenza dynamics and its aetiology as well as to the derivation of more precise forecasted estimates for planning and prevention purposes.

The presence of norovirus in shellfish is a public health concern in Europe. Here, we report the results of an investigation into a norovirus gastroenteritis outbreak following a festive lunch which affected 84 (57%) residents and staff members of a nursing home in January 2012 in France. Individuals who had eaten oysters had a significantly higher risk of developing symptoms in the following 2·5 days than those who had not, the risk increasing with the amount eaten [relative risk 2·2 (1·0–4·6) and 3·3 (1·6–6·6) for 3–4 and 5–12 oysters, respectively]. In healthy individuals during those days, 29 (32%) subsequently became ill, most of whom were staff members performing activities in close contact with residents. Genogroup II noroviruses were detected in faecal samples, in a sample of uneaten oysters and in oysters from the production area. Identifying a norovirus's infectious dose may facilitate the health-related management of contaminated shellfish.

Gonorrhoea is one of the most common sexually transmitted infections. The control of gonorrhoea is extremely challenging because of the repeated development of resistance to the antibiotics used for its treatment. We explored different strategies to control the spread of antimicrobial resistance and prevent increases in gonorrhoea prevalence. We used a mathematical model that describes gonorrhoea transmission among men who have sex with men and distinguishes gonorrhoea strains sensitive or resistant to three antibiotics. We investigated the impact of combination therapy, switching first-line antibiotics according to resistance thresholds, and other control efforts (reduced sexual risk behaviour, increased treatment rate). Combination therapy can delay the spread of resistance better than using the 5% resistance threshold. Increased treatment rates, expected to enhance gonorrhoea control, may reduce gonorrhoea prevalence only in the short term, but could lead to more resistance and higher prevalence in the long term. Re-treatment of resistant cases with alternative antibiotics can substantially delay the spread of resistance. In conclusion, combination therapy and re-treatment of resistant cases with alternative antibiotics could be the most effective strategies to prevent increases in gonorrhoea prevalence due to antimicrobial resistance.

In this globalized world, the spread of new, exotic and re-emerging diseases has become one of the most important threats to animal production and public health. This systematic review analyses conventional and novel early detection methods applied to surveillance. In all, 125 scientific documents were considered for this study. Exotic (n = 49) and re-emerging (n = 27) diseases constituted the most frequently represented health threats. In addition, the majority of studies were related to zoonoses (n = 66). The approaches found in the review could be divided in surveillance modalities, both active (n = 23) and passive (n = 5); and tools and methodologies that support surveillance activities (n = 57). Combinations of surveillance modalities and tools (n = 40) were also found. Risk-based approaches were very common (n = 60), especially in the papers describing tools and methodologies (n = 50). The main applications, benefits and limitations of each approach were extracted from the papers. This information will be very useful for informing the development of tools to facilitate the design of cost-effective surveillance strategies. Thus, the current literature review provides key information about the advantages, disadvantages, limitations and potential application of methodologies for the early detection of new, exotic and re-emerging diseases.

This paper examines the geographical impact of the British Government's wartime evacuation scheme on notified rates of two common acute childhood diseases (scarlet fever and diphtheria) in the 1470 local government districts of England and Wales, 1939–1945. Drawing on the notifications of communicable diseases collated by the General Register Office (GRO), we establish pre-war (baseline) disease rates for the 1470 districts. For the war years, techniques of binary logistic regression analysis are used to assess the associations between (a) above-baseline (‘raised’) disease rates in evacuation, neutral and reception districts and (b) the major phases of the evacuation scheme. The analysis demonstrates that the evacuation was temporally associated with distinct national and regional effects on notified levels of disease activity. These effects were most pronounced in the early years of the dispersal (1939–1941) and corresponded with initial levels of evacuation-related population change at the regional and district scales.

We examined multistate outbreaks attributed to raw tomatoes in the United States from 1990 to 2010. We summarized the demographic and epidemiological characteristics of 15 outbreaks resulting in 1959 illnesses, 384 hospitalizations, and three deaths. Most (80%) outbreaks were reported during 2000–2010; 73% occurred May–September. Outbreaks commonly affected adult (median age 34 years) women (median 58% of outbreak cases). All outbreaks were caused by Salmonella [serotypes Newport (n = 6 outbreaks), Braenderup (n = 2), Baildon, Enteritidis, Javiana, Montevideo, Thompson, Typhimurium (n = 1 each); multiple serotypes (n = 1)]. Red, round (69% of outbreaks), Roma (23%), and grape (8%) tomatoes were implicated. Most (93%) outbreaks were associated with tomatoes served predominantly in restaurants. However, traceback investigations suggested that contamination occurred on farms, at packinghouses, or at fresh-cut processing facilities. Government agencies, academia, trade associations, and the fresh tomato industry should consider further efforts to identify interventions to reduce contamination of tomatoes during production and processing.

The relationship between risk of death following influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 infection and ethnicity and deprivation during the 2009/2010 pandemic period and the first post-pandemic season of 2010/2011 in England was examined. Poisson regression models were used to estimate the mortality risk, adjusted for age, gender, and place of residence. Those of non-White ethnicity experienced an increased mortality risk compared to White populations during the 2009/2010 pandemic [10·5/1000 vs. 6·0/1000 general population; adjusted risk ratio (RR) 1·84, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·39-2·54] with the highest risk in those of Pakistani ethnicity. However, no significant difference between ethnicities was observed during the following 2010/2011 season. Persons living in areas with the highest level of deprivation had a significantly higher risk of death (RR 2·08, 95% CI 1·49-2·91) compared to the lowest level for both periods. These results highlight the importance of rapid identification of groups at higher risk of severe disease in the early stages of future pandemics to enable the implementation of optimal prevention and control measures for vulnerable populations.

The child day-care centre (DCC) is often considered as one risk factor for gastroenteritis (GE) rather than a complex setting in which the interplay of many factors may influence the epidemiology of GE. This study aimed to identify DCC-level risk factors for GE and major enteropathogen occurrence. A dynamic network of 100 and 43 DCCs participated in a syndromic and microbiological surveillance during 2010–2013. The weekly incidence of GE events and weekly prevalence of five major enteropathogens (rotavirus, norovirus, astrovirus, Giardia lamblia, Cryptosporidium hominis/parvum) were modelled per DCC using mixed-effects negative binomial/Poisson regression models. Sixteen hundred children were surveyed up to 3 years, during which 1829 GE episodes were reported and 5197 faecal samples were analysed. Identified risk factors were: large DCC capacity, crowding, having animals, nappy changing areas, sandpits, paddling pools, cleaning potties in normal sinks, cleaning vomit with paper towels (but without cleaner), mixing of staff between child groups, and staff members with multiple daily duties. Protective factors were: disinfecting fomites with chlorine, cleaning vomit with paper towels (and cleaner), daily cleaning of bed linen/toys, cohorting and exclusion policies for ill children and staff. Targeting these factors may reduce the burden of DCC-related GE.

There were multiple waves of influenza-like illness in 1918, the last of which resulted in a highly lethal pandemic killing 50 million people. It is difficult to study the initial waves of influenza-like illness in early 1918 because few deaths resulted and few morbidity records exist. Using extant military mortality records, we constructed mortality maps based on location of burial in France and Belgium in the British Army, and on home town in Vermont and New York in the USA Army. Differences between early and more lethal later waves in late 1918 were consistent with historical descriptions in France. The maps of Vermont and New York support the hypothesis that previous exposure may have conferred a degree of protection against subsequent infections; soldiers from rural areas, which were likely to have experienced less mixing than soldiers from urban areas, were at higher risk of mortality. Differences between combat and disease mortality in 1918 were consistent with limited influenza virus circulation during the early 1918 wave. We suggest that it is likely that more than one influenza virus was circulating in 1918, which might help explain the higher mortality rates in those unlikely to have been infected in early 1918.

Listeriosis is a rare but severe foodborne disease with low morbidity and high case-fatality rates. Pregnant women, unborn and newborn babies are among the high-risk groups for listeriosis. We examined listeriosis cases reported to the enhanced surveillance system in England and Wales from 1990 to 2010 to identify risk factors influencing outcome. Cases were defined as pregnancy-associated if Listeria monocytogenes was isolated from a pregnant woman or newborn infants aged <28 days. Of the 3088 cases reported, pregnancy-associated listeriosis accounted for 462 (15%) cases and 315 cases resulted in a live birth. Several factors were identified as affecting the severity and outcome of listeriosis in pregnancy in both mother and child including: presence or absence of maternal symptoms, gestational age at onset of symptoms, and clinical presentation in the infant (meningitis or septicaemia). Deprivation, ethnicity and molecular serotype had no effect on outcome.

We analysed Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains from children, hospitalized from January 2004 to July 2008 in the largest paediatric hospital complex in Cambodia. Specimens were tested for drug susceptibility and genotypes. From the 260 children, 161 strains were available. The East African-Indian genotype family was the most common (59·0%), increasing in frequency with distance from the Phnom Penh area, while the frequency of the Beijing genotype family strains decreased. The drug resistance pattern showed a similar geographical gradient: lowest in the northwest (4·6%), intermediate in the central (17·1%), and highest in the southeastern (30·8%) parts of the country. Three children (1·9%) had multidrug-resistant tuberculosis. The Beijing genotype and streptomycin resistance were significantly associated (P < 0·001). As tuberculosis in children reflects recent transmission patterns in the community, multidrug resistance levels inform about the current quality of the tuberculosis programme.

Infections are common in children attending daycare centres (DCCs). We evaluated the effect of a hand hygiene (HH) intervention for caregivers on the incidence of gastrointestinal and respiratory infections in children. The intervention was evaluated in a two-arm cluster randomized controlled trial. Thirty-six DCCs received the intervention including HH products, training sessions, and posters/stickers. Thirty-five control DCCs continued usual practice. Incidence of episodes of diarrhoea and the common cold in children was monitored by parents during 6 months. Using multilevel Poisson regression, incidence rate ratios (IRRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were obtained. Diarrhoeal incidence was monitored in 545 children for 91 937 days. During follow-up, the incidence was 3·0 episodes per child-year in intervention DCCs vs. 3·4 in control DCCs (IRR 0·90, 95% CI 0·73–1·11). Incidence of the common cold was monitored in 541 children for 91 373 days. During follow-up, the incidence was 8·2 episodes per child-year in intervention DCCs vs. 7·4 in control DCCs (IRR 1·07, 95% CI 0·97–1·19). In this study, no evidence for an effect of the intervention was demonstrated on the incidence of episodes of diarrhoea and the common cold.

This study is a part of the surveillance study on childhood diarrhoea in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands; here we report the drug resistance pattern of recent isolates of Shigella spp. (2006–2011) obtained as part of that study and compare it with that of Shigella isolates obtained earlier during 2000–2005. During 2006–2011, stool samples from paediatric diarrhoea patients were collected and processed for isolation and identification of Shigella spp. Susceptibility to 22 antimicrobial drugs was tested and minimum inhibitory concentrations were determined for third-generation cephalosporins, quinolones, amoxicillin-clavulanic acid combinations and gentamicin. A wide spectrum of antibiotic resistance was observed in the Shigella strains obtained during 2006–2011. The proportions of resistant strains showed an increase from 2000–2005 to 2006–2011 in 20/22 antibiotics tested. The number of drug resistance patterns increased from 13 in 2000–2005 to 43 in 2006–2011. Resistance to newer generation fluoroquinolones, third-generation cephalosporins and augmentin, which was not observed during 2000–2005, appeared during 2006–2011. The frequency of resistance in Shigella isolates has increased substantially between 2000–2006 and 2006–2011, with a wide spectrum of resistance. At present, the option for antimicrobial therapy in shigellosis in Andaman is limited to a small number of drugs.

Influenza poses a significant public health burden worldwide. Understanding how and to what extent people would change their behaviour in response to influenza outbreaks is critical for formulating public health policies. We incorporated the information-theoretic framework into a behaviour-influenza (BI) transmission dynamics system in order to understand the effects of individual behavioural change on influenza epidemics. We showed that information transmission of risk perception played a crucial role in the spread of health-seeking behaviour throughout influenza epidemics. Here a network BI model provides a new approach for understanding the risk perception spread and human behavioural change during disease outbreaks. Our study allows simultaneous consideration of epidemiological, psychological, and social factors as predictors of individual perception rates in behaviour-disease transmission systems. We suggest that a monitoring system with precise information on risk perception should be constructed to effectively promote health behaviours in preparation for emerging disease outbreaks.

Emerging and re-emerging infectious disease (EID) events can have devastating human, animal and environmental health impacts. The emergence of EIDs has been associated with interconnected economic, social and environmental changes. Understanding these changes is crucial for EID preparedness and subsequent prevention and control of EID events. The aim of this review is to describe tools currently available for identification, prioritization and investigation of EIDs impacting human and animal health, and how these might be integrated into a systematic approach for directing EID preparedness. Environmental scanning, foresight programmes, horizon scanning and surveillance are used to collect and assess information for rapidly responding to EIDs and to anticipate drivers of emergence for mitigating future EID impacts. Prioritization of EIDs − using transparent and repeatable methods − based on disease impacts and the importance of those impacts to decision-makers can then be used for more efficient resource allocation for prevention and control. Risk assessment and simulation modelling methods assess the likelihood of EIDs occurring, define impact and identify mitigation strategies. Each of these tools has a role to play individually; however, we propose integration of these tools into a framework that enhances the development of tactical and strategic plans for emerging risk preparedness.