To assess the sensitivity of the Swedish surveillance system, four notifiable communicable diseases in Sweden were examined during 1998–2002 with the two-sources capture–recapture method, based on parallel clinical and laboratory notifications. The sensitivity (proportion of diagnosed diseases actually being notified) was highest for salmonellosis (99·9%), followed by meningococcal infection (98·7%), and tularaemia (98·5%). For penicillin-resistant pneumococci, introduced as a notifiable disease in 1996, the overall sensitivity was 93·4% – increasing from 86·5% in 1998 to 98·5% in 2002. The system benefited from parallel reporting, with a sensitivity of clinical and laboratory notifications alone (all diseases combined) of 91·6% and 95·9% respectively. The sensitivity of both clinical and laboratory notifications was markedly higher in counties using the national electronic reporting system, SmiNet. Thus, sensitivity was higher for diseases with a long tradition of reporting, and there is a run-in period after a new disease becomes notifiable.

Culture for Bordetella pertussis (B. pertussis) is the traditional gold standard for laboratory diagnosis of pertussis but is insensitive, especially later in the course of illness and in vaccinated persons. Interpretation of serology is limited by the lack of an appropriate reference standard. An outbreak of pertussis in a crowded boarding-school dormitory allowed evaluation of laboratory correlates of infection. Questionnaires, serum samples and throat swabs were collected from members of the exposed group. Serum samples from unexposed controls of a similar age group were used for comparison. B. pertussis PCR was performed on throat swabs, and sera were tested for IgA antibodies against whole-cell (WC) B. pertussis antigen and IgG antibodies to pertussis toxin (PT). The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention definition for pertussis was used to define clinical cases. We evaluated the use of a previously published cut-off for PT IgG of 125 EIA units (EU)/ml. Completed questionnaires were obtained from 115 students, of whom 85 (74%) reported coughing symptoms, including 32 (28%) who met the clinical case definition for pertussis. B. pertussis was detected by PCR in 17 (15%) and WC IgA in 22 (19%) students; neither correlated with symptoms, but dormitory of residence strongly predicted PCR status. The mean PT IgG geometric mean concentration, in this situation of high pertussis exposure, correlated with severity of symptoms and was significantly higher in both symptomatic and asymptomatic children exposed during the outbreak (P<0·001) than in control children. A cut-off for PT IgG of 125 EU/ml was too high in an outbreak situation to be sensitive enough to identify pertussis cases. A case of pertussis in a crowded boarding-school dormitory resulted rapidly in an outbreak. Serology and PCR were useful in identifying the outbreak and commencing disease control measures. The use of serology has mostly been evaluated in community serosurveys, where it is not possible to determine if immunity reflects vaccination, asymptomatic disease or symptomatic disease. This outbreak gave us the opportunity to evaluate the value of serology and PCR in the presence of confirmed exposure to pertussis.

We aimed to describe the incidence of new episodes of molluscum contagiosum, scabies and lichen planus presenting to general practitioners in England and Wales. We examined data collected in a sentinel practice network (the Weekly Returns Service of the Royal College of General Practitioners) in which about half a million persons were observed each year over the period 1994–2003. The incidence of molluscum contagiosum in males was 243/100000 person-years and in females 231; of scabies, males 351, females 437; of lichen planus, males 32, females 37. Incidence varied by year and age. Ninety per cent of molluscum contagiosum episodes were reported in children aged 0–14 years, where incidence in 2000 (midpoint of a 6-year period of stable incidence) was 1265/100000 (95% CI 1240–1290). Scabies affected all ages and annual incidence ranged between 233 (95% CI 220–246) in 2003 and 470 (95% CI 452–488) in 2000. Lichen planus occurred chiefly in persons aged over 45 years: incidence (all ages) ranged between 27 (95% CI 23–31) in 2003 and 43 (95% CI 37–49) in 1998. The relative risk of female to male incidence (all ages) of molluscum contagiosum was 0·95 (95% CI 0·91–0·99); of scabies 1·25 (95% CI 1·21–1·28); and of lichen planus 1·19 (95% CI 1·08–1·13).

Wastewater treatment plant workers are exposed to microbes, including Salmonella, but the prevalence of antibodies against Salmonella species or serovars in their serum samples has not been studied. Antibodies against Salmonella Infantis and lipopolysaccharide antigen common to S. Enteritidis and S. Typhimurium in immunoglobulin classes IgA, IgM and IgG were measured from 79 serum samples of wastewater treatment plant workers and from 79 blood donor samples. Faecal samples for Salmonella and Campylobacter were studied. Gastrointestinal, dermal and other symptoms were compared between 81 wastewater treatment plant workers and 89 food-processing workers. The blood donors had more antibodies against all of the tested antigens expect for S. Infantis in IgM and IgA classes, even though the wastewater treatment plant workers had more gastrointestinal symptoms than the controls. No Salmonella or Campylobacter were found in any faecal samples. Salmonella is not a probable cause of symptoms among wastewater treatment plant workers.

In August 2003, an outbreak of scombroid fish poisoning occurred at a retreat centre in California, USA. In a retrospective cohort study, 42 (75%) of the 56 dinner attendees who ate escolar fish (Lepidocybium flavobrunneum) met the case definition. Individuals who ate at least 2 oz of fish were 1·5 times more likely to develop symptoms than those who ate less (relative risk 1·5, 95% confidence interval 0·9–2·6), and to develop more symptoms (median 7 vs. 3 symptoms, P=0·03). Patients who took medicine had a longer duration of symptoms than those who did not (median 4 vs. 1·5 h, P=0·05), and experienced a greater number of symptoms (median 8 vs. 3 symptoms, P=0·0002). Samples of fish contained markedly elevated histamine levels (from 2000 to 3800 ppm). This is one of the largest reported outbreaks of scombroid fish poisoning in the United States and was associated with a rare vehicle for scombroid fish poisoning, escolar.

The space–time scan statistic is often used to identify incident disease clusters. We introduce a method to adjust for naturally occurring temporal trends or geographical patterns in illness. The space–time scan statistic was applied to reports of lower respiratory complaints in a large group practice. We compared its performance with unadjusted populations from: (1) the census, (2) group-practice membership counts, and on adjustments incorporating (3) day of week, month, and holidays; and (4) additionally, local history of illness. Using a nominal false detection rate of 5%, incident clusters during 1 year were identified on 26, 22, 4 and 2% of days for the four populations respectively. We show that it is important to account for naturally occurring temporal and geographic trends when using the space–time scan statistic for surveillance. The large number of days with clusters renders the census and membership approaches impractical for public health surveillance. The proposed adjustment allows practical surveillance.

Between 1 January 1992 and 31 December 2002, Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli O157 (STEC O157) accounted for 44 of the 1645 foodborne general outbreaks of infectious intestinal disease reported to the Health Protection Agency Communicable Disease Surveillance Centre. These outbreaks, although rare, were characterized by severe infection, with 169 hospital admissions and five deaths reported. STEC O157 outbreaks were compared with other pathogens to identify factors associated with this pathogen. Single risk variable analysis and logistic regression were employed. Two distinct aetiologies were identified. Foodborne outbreaks of STEC O157 infection in England and Wales were independently associated with farms, which related to milk and milk products, and with red meats/meat products, which highlighted butchers' shops as a cause for concern. The introduction and adherence to effective control measures, based on the principles of hazard analysis, provide the best means of minimizing the risk of foodborne infection with this pathogen.

Towards the end of the 19th century there was a need for standardized tests to determine the efficiency of disinfectants against the newly discovered bacterial pathogens. Methods had been developed in which disinfectants were tested on organisms soaked into thread or coated onto garnets. However, more appropriate were tests based on contact between dilutions of disinfectant and suspensions of organisms, which could be subcultured to detect residual infectivity.

Statistical power in group-randomized vaccine trials is complex: group randomization may increase power by capturing more transmission effects but may decrease power as more individuals are affected by a common source of variance. The former effect dominates when most infections arise from within the group and the latter when most arise outside. This process is complicated further when individuals possess partial natural immunity. Vaccine trials typically compare infection frequency (as measured by agent or antibody detection) in vaccinated vs. unvaccinated groups. To assess the relative contributions to statistical power by direct agent detection vs. serological detection of recent infection, we constructed stochastic compartmental models using differential equations describing all possible discrete states of the group. We contrasted models where natural immunity was absent, altered only the susceptible state, or altered both the susceptible and infected states. We observed the effects of endemic infection levels, the fraction of infection arising from outside the group, infectiousness vs. susceptibility vaccine effects and waning rates. There was significant enhancement of statistical power when serological testing separated infected and susceptible classes into subsets by natural immunity status.

Diagnostic microbiology, first by the visualization of organisms followed by culture of pathogenic organisms, developed at the end of the 19th and the beginning of the 20th century. The detection of specific antibody as a means of diagnosing infection followed. One of the most enduring of these antibody assays has been the complement-fixation test, which is still in use 40 years after its development by Bradstreet and Taylor in 1962 [1]. Despite the development of more sensitive assays such as RIA and ELISA, the serological diagnosis of many respiratory infections is still often achieved by means of the complement-fixation test. Some of these pathogens such as influenza viruses are also diagnosed by culture although obtaining acute phase specimens for culture is problematic. Other organisms such as Mycoplasma pneumoniae and Coxiella burnetii, although cultivable are seldom diagnosed by this means because most diagnostic laboratories are not able to perform culture routinely. Diagnosis of these treatable infections is usually made by use of the complement-fixation test.

The Japanese quarantine system monitors incoming passengers to detect imported pathogens at international airports. At one airport, we found that 74% of 13315 travellers returning with diarrhoea had visited only one country before entering Japan. On the basis of our results, we hypothesized that the international distribution and potential source of bacterial strains could be inferred by analysing strains isolated from travellers returning to Japan. In order to demonstrate the potential for this system, we randomly selected five Shigella sonnei strains and examined their restriction fragment length polymorphism patterns. One set of strains appeared to be closely related, while three sets, isolated from travellers who visited different countries were possibly related. These results suggest that international distributions and potential sources of S. sonnei may be inferred by monitoring isolates from passengers arriving at a Japanese quarantine station.

An increase in gastroenteritis outbreaks due to Norovirus has been reported worldwide. We investigated a large-scale outbreak affecting 246 residents and 33 staff members in six nursing homes in the Tel-Aviv district, Israel, during 3 weeks in 2002. Person-to-person spread was noticed in all nursing homes. The spread of disease could not be attributed to social interactions. Among the elderly residents, the hospitalization rate was 10·2% and the case-fatality rate was 2·0%. Bacteriological cultures were negative. Overall, 7 out of 15 stool specimens were positive for Norovirus by RT–PCR. All were sequenced and found to be 90% identical. The characteristics of this outbreak and the RT–PCR results suggest that illness was caused by Norovirus. Due to the high case-fatality rate of Norovirus gastroenteritis, there should be a high index of suspicion when encountering a gastroenteritis outbreak among the elderly. This will enable prompt action to stop the spread of illness.

Data from AIDS surveillance systems in the World Health Organization European region (1993–2001) were analysed to describe the main epidemiological aspects of recurrent bacterial pneumonia (RBP) as AIDS-defining illness (ADI) in Europe. Among the 153756 AIDS cases analysed, 5796 (3·8%) had RBP. The proportion of RBP was higher (8·3%) in eastern than in western Europe (3·6%), possibly because of a greater propensity of certain countries to diagnose RBP. In western Europe, the proportion of RBP as ADI appeared to increase over time up to 1998 (from 2·5% to 4·5%), and declined thereafter (3·3% in 2001). RBP was strongly associated with intravenous drug use (odds ratio 3·0, 95% CI 2·7–3·3), whereas it did not differ in age groups or geographical areas. The study findings confirm the crucial role of intravenous drug use in the occurrence of RBP and suggest that highly active antiretroviral therapies might have had a postponing impact on the relative frequency of RBP as ADI.

In October 1998, cohorts of circular migrant men and their non-migrant sexual partners, and non-migrant men and their non-migrant sexual partners from rural South Africa were recruited and followed-up every 4 months until October 2001. At each visit, information on socio-demographic, sexual behaviour, sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and HIV was collected. In total, 553 individuals aged between 18 and 69 years were recruited. A man and his sexual partner(s) form a sexual partnership. Migration status, age, marital status, age at sexual debut, recent sexual partners and HIV status were found to be important determinants of STI. The risk of STI varies (σ2=1·45, P<0·001) significantly across sexual partnerships even after controlling for important determinants. The variance implies substantial correlation (0·59) between members of the same sexual partnership. Ignoring this correlation leads to incorrect inference. Migration contributes significantly to the spread of STIs. Community interventions of HIV/STI should target co-transmitter sexual partnerships rather than high-risk individuals.

A case-control study was conducted from 1 January to 31 May 2003 to identify risk factors for S. Heidelberg infection in Canada. Controls were pair-matched by age group and telephone exchange to 95 cases. Exposures in the 7 days before illness/interview were assessed using multivariate conditional logistic regression. Consumption of home-prepared chicken nuggets and/or strips [matched odds ratio (mOR) 4·0, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·4–13·8], and undercooked eggs (mOR 7·5, 95% CI 1·5–75·5) increased the risk of illness. Exposure to a farm setting lowered the risk (mOR 0·22, 95% CI 0·03–1·00). The population-attributable fraction associated with chicken nuggets/strips was 34% and with undercooked eggs was 16%. One-third of study participants did not perceive, handle or prepare chicken nuggets and strips as high-risk products, although the majority of the products on the Canadian market are raw. These findings have prompted changes in product-labelling policy and consumer education.

The nature and frequency of waterborne disease changed substantially during the course of the 20th century [1]. In the early decades of the century, the primary diagnosed cause of waterborne disease in both the United Kingdom and the United States was typhoid fever. It was well known at that time that the primary source of infection was faecal pollution of drinking water. It was against this background that methods for detecting faecal pollution were sought.

An investigation was conducted to determine the distribution, virulence gene profile and phenotypes of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) strains within a dairy farm in Kolkata, India by characterizing the STEC strains isolated from healthy dairy cow and calf stool samples, raw milk and farm floor swabs from July 2001 to March 2002. Primary screening by multiplex-PCR detected stx1 and stx2, the common virulence genes of STEC, in 18·9% of cow faeces, 32·4% of calf stool samples, 21·6% of farm floor swabs and 4·5% of raw milk samples and viable STEC were recovered from 4·5, 9·9, 8·1 and 1·8% of the corresponding PCR-positive samples. Strains harbouring stx1 (63·3%) and hlyA (53·3%) were frequently detected compared to eae (13·3%). Most of the strains harboured similar sets of reported virulence genes common among isolates from diarrhoea patients. Most of the strains also exhibited multidrug resistance, sorbitol fermentation and produced enterohaemolysin. The randomly amplified polymorphic DNA–PCR (RAPD–PCR) profile of the STEC strains isolated from the farm milieu revealed diverse banding patterns and clonal analysis demonstrated that the strains from different sources were not identical but showed some genetic relatedness. The study demonstrates the potential of dairy farm for housing virulent STEC.

Viral infections, especially those with noroviruses are the most common cause of acute gastroenteritis in Europe. To obtain information about the epidemic situation of noroviruses in Switzerland, an initial study was launched in the German-speaking part of the country to systematically compile Norovirus outbreak information between 2001 and 2003. In total, 73 outbreaks were registered. Most affected were closed settings, e.g. nursing homes (34%) and hospitals (25%). Transmission pathways were identified in 74% of Norovirus outbreaks. In 81% of these cases person-to-person transmission was the primary route of infection and on seven occasions (13%), a foodborne transmission was the possible cause. Furthermore, Norovirus outbreak characteristics of epidemiological importance are highlighted with a discussion of four selected events.

Mathematical modelling is an established tool for planning and monitoring vaccination programmes. However, the matrices describing contact rates are based on subjective choices, which have a large impact on results. This paper reviews published models and obtains prior model probabilities based on publication frequency and expert opinion. Using serological survey data on rubella and mumps, Bayesian methods of model choice are applied to select the most plausible models. Estimates of the basic reproduction number R0 are derived, taking into account model uncertainty and individual heterogeneity in contact rates. Twenty-two models are documented, for which publication frequency and expert opinion are negatively correlated. Using the expert prior with individual heterogeneity, R0=6·1 [95% credible region (CR) 4·3–9·2] for rubella and R0=19·3 (95% CR 4·0–31·5) for mumps. The posterior modes are insensitive to the prior for rubella but not for mumps. Overall, assortative models with individual heterogeneity are recommended.

We estimated age-specific herpes zoster (HZ) incidence rates in the Kaiser Permanente Northwest Health Plan (KPNW) during 1997–2002 and tested for secular trends and differences between residents of two states with different varicella vaccine coverage rates. The cumulative proportions of 2-year-olds vaccinated increased from 35% in 1997 to 85% in 2002 in Oregon, and from 25% in 1997 to 82% in 2002 in Washington. Age-specific HZ incidence rates in KPNW during 1997–2002 were compared with published rates in the Harvard Community Health Plan (HCHP) during 1990–1992. The overall HZ incidence rate in KPNW during 1997–2002 (369/100000 person-years) was slightly higher than HCHP's 1990–1992 rate when adjusted for age differences. For children 0–14 years old, KPNW's rates (182 for females, 123 for males) were more than three times HCHP's rates (54 for females, 39 for males). This increase appears to be associated with increased exposure of children to oral corticosteroids. The percentage of KPNW children exposed to oral corticosteroids increased from 2·2% in 1991 to 3·6% in 2002. Oregon residents had slightly higher steroid exposure rates during 1997–2002 than Washington residents. There were significant increases in HZ incidence rates in Oregon and Washington during 1997–2002 among children aged 10–17 years, associated with increased exposure to oral steroids.