Calving is a complex process subject to several cooperating atmospheric, oceanographic and glaciological forcings that vary in space and time, and whose relative effects are challenging to separate. Statistical ‘Systems Analysis’ is commonly used in engineering and economics to extricate complex ‘force–response’ relationships. Here we apply Systems Analysis to the Amery rift system, East Antarctica. We develop a scalable ‘System Model’ driven by a coarsely-sampled dataset characteristic of glaciological observations in remote locations, and validate it using rift lengths observed in 2000–06 and 2012. In this initial demonstration, we forecast a detachment date of ~2019 ± 5 years for the large tabular iceberg colloquially known as the ‘Loose Tooth’, for which relative humidity surprisingly emerges as the best statistical predictor. RACMO2 climate modelling reveals that relative humidity correlates best with surface albedo and snowmelt, both of which are intimately linked to firn compaction and ice shelf temperature and flow. We postulate that relative humidity can therefore serve as a proxy for internal stress, a known key control of ‘Loose Tooth’ calving. Although no physical causality is implied in Systems Analysis, postulates such as this can aid in setting priorities in studies of complex glaciological processes.

Accelerated discharge through marine-terminating outlet glaciers has been a key component of the rapid mass loss from Arctic glaciers since the 1990s. However, glacier retreat and its climatic controls have not been assessed at the pan-Arctic scale. Consequently, the spatial and temporal variability in the magnitude of retreat, and the possible drivers are uncertain. Here we use remotely sensed data acquired over 273 outlet glaciers, located across the entire Atlantic Arctic (i.e. areas potentially influenced by North Atlantic climate and/or ocean conditions, specifically: Greenland, Novaya Zemlya, Franz Josef Land and Svalbard), to demonstrate high-magnitude, accelerating and near-ubiquitous retreat between 1992 and 2010. Overall, mean retreat rates increased by a factor of 3.5 between 1992 and 2000 (−30.5 m a−1) and 2000–10 (−105.8 m a−1), with 97% of the study glaciers retreating during the latter period. The Retreat was greatest in northern, western and south-eastern Greenland and also increased substantially on the Barents Sea coast of Novaya Zemlya. Glacier retreat showed no significant or consistent relationship with summer air temperatures at decadal timescales. The rate of frontal position change showed a significant, but weak, correlation with changes in sea-ice concentrations. We highlight large variations in retreat rates within regions and suggest that fjord topography plays an important role. We conclude that marine-terminating Arctic outlet glaciers show a common response of rapid and accelerating retreat at decadal timescales.

The first satellite-derived inventory of glaciers and rock glaciers in Chile, created from Landsat TM/ETM+ images spanning between 2000 and 2003 using a semi-automated procedure, is presented in a single standardized format. Large glacierized areas in the Altiplano, Palena Province and the periphery of the Patagonian icefields are inventoried. The Chilean glacierized area is 23 708 ± 1185 km2, including ~3200 km2 of both debris-covered glaciers and rock glaciers. Glacier distribution varies as a result of climatic gradients with latitude and elevation, with 0.8% occurring in the Desert Andes (17°30′–32° S); 3.6% in the Central Andes (32–36° S), 6.2% in the Lakes District and Palena Province (36–46° S), and 89.3% in Patagonia and Tierra del Fuego (46–56° S). Glacier outlines, across all glacierized regions and size classes, updated to 2015 using Landsat 8 images for 98 complexes indicate a decline in areal extent affecting mostly clean-ice glaciers (−92.3 ± 4.6 km2), whereas debris-covered glaciers and rock glaciers in the Desert and Central Andes appear nearly unchanged in their extent. Glacier attributes estimated from this new inventory provide valuable insights into spatial patterns of glacier shrinkage for assessing future glacier changes in response to climate change.

On 2 March 2016, several small en échelon tabular icebergs calved from the seaward front of the McMurdo Ice Shelf, and a previously inactive rift widened and propagated by ~3 km, ~25% of its previous length, setting the stage for the future calving of a ~14 km2 iceberg. Within 24 h of these events, all remaining land-fast sea ice that had been stabilizing the ice shelf broke-up. The events were witnessed by time-lapse cameras at nearby Scott Base, and put into context using nearby seismic and automatic weather station data, satellite imagery and subsequent ground observation. Although the exact trigger of calving and rifting cannot be identified definitively, seismic records reveal superimposed sets of both long-period (>10 s) sea swell propagating into McMurdo Sound from storm sources beyond Antarctica, and high-energy, locally-sourced, short-period (<10 s) sea swell, in the 4 days before the fast ice break-up and associated ice-shelf calving and rifting. This suggests that sea swell should be studied further as a proximal cause of ice-shelf calving and rifting; if proven, it suggests that ice-shelf stability is tele-connected with far-field storm conditions at lower latitudes, adding a global dimension to the physics of ice-shelf break-up.

The surface of the Ross Ice Shelf (RIS) is textured by flow stripes, crevasses and other features related to ice flow and deformation. Here, moderate resolution optical satellite images are used to map and classify regions of the RIS characterized by different surface textures. Because the textures arise from ice deformation, the map is used to identify structural provinces with common deformation history. We classify four province types: regions associated with large outlet glaciers, shear zones, extension downstream of obstacles and suture zones between provinces with different upstream sources. Adjacent provinces with contrasting histories are in some locations deforming at different rates, suggesting that our province map is also an ice fabric map. Structural provinces have more complicated shapes in the part of the ice shelf fed by West Antarctic ice streams than in the part fed by outlet glaciers from the Transantarctic Mountains. The map may be used to infer past variations in stress conditions and flow events that cannot be inferred from flow traces alone.

To better understand the processes controlling recent mass loss of peripheral glaciers and ice caps in northwestern Greenland, we measured surface mass balance (SMB), ice velocity and near-surface ice temperature on Qaanaaq Ice Cap in the summers of 2012–16. The measurements were performed along a survey route spanning the terminus of an outlet glacier to the upper reaches (243–968 m a.s.l.). The ice-cap-wide SMB ranged from −1.10 ± 0.29 to −0.13 ± 0.26 m w.e. a−1 for the years from 2012/13 to 2015/16. Mass balance showed substantially large fluctuations over the study period under the influence of summer temperature and snow accumulation. Ice velocity showed seasonal speedup only in the summer of 2012, suggesting an extraordinary amount of meltwater penetrated to the bed and enhanced basal ice motion. Ice temperature at a depth of 13 m was −8.0°C at 944 m a.s.l., which was 2.5°C warmer than that at 243 m a.s.l., suggesting that ice temperature in the upper reaches was elevated by refreezing and percolation of meltwater. Our study provided in situ data from a relatively unstudied region in Greenland, and demonstrated the importance of continued monitoring of these processes for longer timespans in the future.

Icebergs calved from tidewater glaciers represent about one third to one half of the freshwater flux from the Greenland ice sheet to the surrounding ocean. Using multiple satellite datasets, we quantify the first fjord-wide distributions of iceberg sizes and characteristics for three fjords with distinct hydrography and geometry: Sermilik Fjord, Rink Isbræ Fjord and Kangerlussuup Sermia Fjord. We estimate average total iceberg volumes in summer in the three fjords to be 6.4 ± 1.5, 1.7 ± 0.40 and 0.16 ± 0.09 km3, respectively. Iceberg properties are influenced by glacier calving style and grounding line depth, with variations in size distribution represented by exponents of power law distributions that are −1.95 ± 0.06, −1.87 ± 0.05 and −1.62 ± 0.04, respectively. The underwater surface area of icebergs exceeds the subsurface area of glacial termini by at least one order of magnitude in all three fjords, underscoring the need to include iceberg melt in fjord freshwater budgets. Indeed, in Sermilik Fjord, we calculate summertime freshwater flux from iceberg melt of 620 m3 s−1 (±140 m3 s−1), similar in magnitude to subglacial discharge. The method developed here can be extended across Greenland to assess relationships between glacier calving, iceberg discharge and freshwater production.

Using observations of basal topography, ice thickness and modern accumulation rates, we use theory and a dynamic flowline model to examine the sensitivity of Antarctica's Foundation Ice Stream to changes in sea level, accumulation and buttressing at the grounding line. Our sensitivity studies demonstrate that the steep, upward-sloping basal topography inland from the grounding line serves to stabilize retreat of the ice stream, while the upward-sloping submarine topography downstream from the grounding line creates the potential for significant advance under conditions of modest sea-level lowering and/or increased accumulation rate. Extrapolating from Foundation Ice Stream, many nearby Weddell Sea sector ice streams are in a similar configuration, suggesting that the historical and projected responses of this sector's ice streams may contrast with those in the Amundsen or Ross Sea sectors. This work reaffirms that the greatest concerns for rapid West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) retreat are locations of reverse slopes, muted basal topography and limited lateral support.

Jakobshavn Isbræ, which terminates in Ilulissat Icefjord, has undergone rapid retreat and is currently the largest contributor to ice-sheet mass loss among Greenland's marine terminating glaciers. Accelerating mass loss is increasing fresh water discharge to the ocean, which can feed back on ice melt, impact marine ecosystems and potentially modify regional and larger scale ocean circulation. Here we present hydrographic observations, including inert geochemical tracers, that allow the first quantitative description of the glacially-modified waters exported from the Jakobshavn/Icefjord system. Observations within the fjord suggest a deep-reaching overturning cell driven by glacial buoyancy forcing. Modified waters containing submarine meltwater (up to 2.5 ± 0.12%), subglacial discharge (up to 6 ± 0.37%) and large portions of entrained ocean waters are seen to exit the fjord and flow north. The exported meltwaters form a buoyant coastal gravity current reaching to 100 m depth and extending 10 km offshore.

Significant intra-annual variability in flow rates of tidewater-terminating Arctic glaciers has been observed in recent years. These changes may result from oceanic and/or atmospheric forcing through (1) perturbations at the terminus, such as enhanced submarine melt and changes in sea-ice buttressing, or (2) increased surface melt, in response to atmospheric warming, reaching the bed and promoting glacier slip. We examine the influence of these processes on Belcher Glacier, a large fast-flowing tidewater outlet of the Devon Island ice cap in the Canadian Arctic. A hydrologically-coupled higher-order ice flow model is used to estimate changes in glacier flow speed as a result of changes in sea-ice buttressing and hydrologically-driven melt-season dynamics. Daily run-off from five sub-catchments over the 2008 and 2009 melt seasons provides meltwater forcing for the model simulations. Model results are compared with remotely-sensed and in situ ice-surface velocity measurements. Sea-ice effects are found to have a minor influence on glacier flow speed relative to that of meltwater drainage, which is clearly implicated in short-term velocity variations during the melt season. We find that threshold drainage is essential in determining the timing of these short-lived accelerations.

Breiðamerkurjökull flows from the Vatnajökull ice cap and calves into the Jökulsárlón proglacial lagoon. The lagoon is connected to the North Atlantic Ocean through a 6 m deep narrow channel. Four hydrographic surveys in spring 2012, and a 2011 4-month long temperature and salinity time series of lagoon inflow show that the lake has significantly changed since 1976. Warm saline ocean water enters each tidal cycle and descends below the maximum sampled depths. The lagoon has a surface layer of ice melt, freshwater and Atlantic derived water. Beneath 10 m depth an advective/diffusive balance is responsible for determining the temperature and salinity of the lagoon waters down to ~90 m. To maintain the observed hydrographic structure, we calculate an upwelling of deep water of ~0.2 m d−1. A survey within 30 m of Breiðamerkurjökull showed that the warmest and most saline waters sampled within the lagoon below 10 m depth were adjacent to the glacier face, along with multiple interleaved warm and cold layers. A heat and salt balance model shows that submarine melting along the ice face generates multiple meltwater plumes that are mixed and diluted within 200 m of the ice face.

This study reviews the effects of a force acting upon ice shelves and icebergs arising from the oblateness of the Earth's geoid and the displacement between the center of mass and the center of buoyancy for an object floating on water. The force has been introduced earlier as Polfluchtkraft or ‘pole-fleeing force’ by Alfred Wegener and others in the context of continental drift, but it is here applied to floating ice for the first time. It propels icebergs towards the equator, but also tugs on ice shelves making them more likely to break apart in a warming climate with possible consequences for the entire ice sheet.