This paper is concerned with the standard bivariate death process as well as with some Markovian modifications and extensions of the process that are of interest especially in epidemic modeling. A new and powerful approach is developed that allows us to obtain the exact distribution of the population state at any point in time, and to highlight the actual nature of the solution. Firstly, using a martingale technique, a central system of relations with two indices for the temporal state distribution will be derived. A remarkable property is that for all the models under consideration, these relations exhibit a similar algebraic structure. Then, this structure will be exploited by having recourse to a theory of Abel-Gontcharoff pseudopolynomials with two indices. This theory generalizes the univariate case examined in a preceding paper and is briefly introduced in the Appendix.

In this paper, in work strongly related with that of Coffman et al. [5], Bruss and Robertson [2], and Rhee and Talagrand [15], we focus our interest on an asymptotic distributional comparison between numbers of ‘smallest’ i.i.d. random variables selected by either on-line or off-line policies. Let X1,X2,… be a sequence of i.i.d. random variables with distribution function F(x), and let X1,n,…,Xn,n be the sequence of order statistics of X1,…,Xn. For a sequence (cn)n≥1 of positive constants, the smallest fit off-line counting random variable is defined by Ne(cn) := max {j ≤ n : X1,n + … + Xj,n ≤ cn}. The asymptotic joint distributional comparison is given between the off-line count Ne(cn) and on-line counts Nnτ for ‘good’ sequential (on-line) policies τ satisfying the sum constraint ∑j≥1XτjI(τj≤n) ≤ cn. Specifically, for such policies τ, under appropriate conditions on the distribution function F(x) and the constants (cn)n≥1, we find sequences of positive constants (Bn)n≥1, (Δn)n≥1 and (Δ'n)n≥1 such that

for some non-degenerate random variables W and W'. The major tools used in the paper are convergence of point processes to Poisson random measure and continuous mapping theorems, strong approximation results of the normalized empirical process by Brownian bridges, and some renewal theory.

One method of linkage analysis in humans is based on identity-by-descent of pairs of relatives who share a phenotype of interest (for example, a particular disease). We replace the convenient assumption of continuous specification of regions of identity by descent by the more realistic, although still artificially simple, assumption of data from a discrete set of equally spaced infinitely polymorphic markers. We generalize the continuous time Markov chain analysis of Feingold (1993b) and compare the accuracy of the new approximation with that of the simpler Gaussian approximation of Feingold, Brown and Siegmund (1993) under a variety of assumptions about the composition of the pedigrees to be studied. We also suggest a perturbation of the Gaussian approximation as a compromise to achieve reasonable accuracy with minimal computational effort.

A model of a stochastic froth is introduced in which the rate of random coalescence of a pair of bubbles depends on an inverse power law of their sizes. The main question of interest is whether froths with a large number of bubbles can grow in a stable fashion; that is, whether under some time-varying change of scale the distributions of rescaled bubble sizes become approximately stationary. It is shown by way of a law of large numbers for the froths that the question can be re-interpreted in terms of a measure flow solving a nonlinear Boltzmann equation that represents an idealized deterministic froth. Froths turn out to be stable in the sense that there are scalings in which the rescaled measure flow is tight and, for a particular case, stable in the stronger sense that the rescaled flow converges to an equilibrium measure. Precise estimates are also given for the degree of tightness of the rescaled measure flows.

The paper is concerned with the final state and severity of a number of SIR epidemic models in finite populations. Two different classes of models are considered, namely the classical SIR Markovian models and the collective models introduced recently by the authors. First, by applying a simple martingale argument, it is shown that in both cases, there exists a common algebraic structure underlying the exact law of the final state and severity. Then, a unified approach to these statistics is developed by exploiting the theory of Abel-Gontcharoff pseudopolynomials (presented in a preceding paper).

This paper examines a problem of importance to the telecommunications industry. In the design of modern ATM switches, it is necessary to use simulation to estimate the probability that a queue within the switch exceeds a given large value. Since these are extremely small probabilities, importance sampling methods must be used. Here we obtain a change of measure for a broad class of models with direct applicability to ATM switches.

We consider a model with A independent sources of cells where each source is modeled by a Markov renewal point process with batch arrivals. We do not assume the sources are necessarily identically distributed, nor that batch sizes are independent of the state of the Markov process. These arrivals join a queue served by multiple independent servers, each with service times also modeled as a Markov renewal process. We only discuss a time-slotted system. The queue is viewed as the additive component of a Markov additive chain subject to the constraint that the additive component remains non-negative. We apply the theory in McDonald (1999) to obtain the asymptotics of the tail of the distribution of the queue size in steady state plus the asymptotics of the mean time between large deviations of the queue size.

The linear inverse problem of estimating the input random field in a first-kind stochastic integral equation relating two random fields is considered. For a wide class of integral operators, which includes the positive rational functions of a self-adjoint elliptic differential operator on L2(ℝd), the ill-posed nature of the problem disappears when such operators are defined between appropriate fractional Sobolev spaces. In this paper, we exploit this fact to reconstruct the input random field from the orthogonal expansion (i.e. with uncorrelated coefficients) derived for the output random field in terms of wavelet bases, transformed by a linear operator factorizing the output covariance operator. More specifically, conditions under which the direct orthogonal expansion of the output random field coincides with the integral transformation of the orthogonal expansion derived for the input random field, in terms of an orthonormal wavelet basis, are studied.

In the setting of incomplete markets, this paper presents a general result of convergence for derivative assets prices. It is proved that the minimal martingale measure first introduced by Föllmer and Schweizer is a convenient tool for the stability under convergence. This extends previous well-known results when the markets are complete both in discrete time and continuous time. Taking into account the structure of stock prices, a mild assumption is made. It implies the joint convergence of the sequences of stock prices and of the Radon-Nikodym derivative of the minimal measure. The convergence of the derivatives prices follows.

This property is illustrated in the main classes of financial market models.

We study a variety of optimal investment problems for objectives related to attaining goals by a fixed terminal time. We start by finding the policy that maximizes the probability of reaching a given wealth level by a given fixed terminal time, for the case where an investor can allocate his wealth at any time between n + 1 investment opportunities: n risky stocks, as well as a risk-free asset that has a positive return. This generalizes results recently obtained by Kulldorff and Heath for the case of a single investment opportunity. We then use this to solve related problems for cases where the investor has an external source of income, and where the investor is interested solely in beating the return of a given stochastic benchmark, as is sometimes the case in institutional money management. One of the benchmarks we consider for this last problem is that of the return of the optimal growth policy, for which the resulting controlled process is a supermartingale. Nevertheless, we still find an optimal strategy. For the general case, we provide a thorough analysis of the optimal strategy, and obtain new insights into the behavior of the optimal policy. For one special case, namely that of a single stock with constant coefficients, the optimal policy is independent of the underlying drift. We explain this by exhibiting a correspondence between the probability maximizing results and the pricing and hedging of a particular derivative security, known as a digital or binary option. In fact, we show that for this case, the optimal policy to maximize the probability of reaching a given value of wealth by a predetermined time is equivalent to simply buying a European digital option with a particular strike price and payoff. A similar result holds for the general case, but with the stock replaced by a particular (index) portfolio, namely the optimal growth or log-optimal portfolio.

Sufficient conditions are given ensuring tightness of a suitably normalized stationary waiting time in the FIFO G/G/1 queue under heavy traffic.

A multitype chain-binomial epidemic process is defined for a closed finite population by sampling a simple multidimensional counting process at certain points. The final size of the epidemic is then characterized, given the counting process, as the smallest root of a non-linear system of equations. By letting the population grow, this characterization is used, in combination with a branching process approximation and a weak convergence result for the counting process, to derive the asymptotic distribution of the final size. This is done for processes with an irreducible contact structure both when the initial infection increases at the same rate as the population and when it stays fixed.

We compare distributions of residual lifetimes of dependent components of different age. This approach yields several notions of multivariate ageing. A special feature of our notions is that they are based on one-dimensional stochastic comparisons. Another difference from the traditional approach is that we do not condition on different histories.

We study a fluid flow queueing system with m independent sources alternating between periods of silence and activity; m ≥ 2. The distribution function of the activity periods of one source, is supposed to be intermediate regular varying. We show that the distribution of the net increment of the buffer during an aggregate activity period (i.e. when at least one source is active) is asymptotically tail-equivalent to the distribution of the net input during a single activity period with intermediate regular varying distribution function. In this way, we arrive at an asymptotic representation of the Palm-stationary tail-function of the buffer content at the beginning of aggregate activity periods. Our approach is probabilistic and extends recent results of Boxma (1996; 1997) who considered the special case of regular variation.

Management of a bufferless resource is considered under non-homogeneous demand consisting of one-unit and two-unit requests. Two-unit requests can be served only by a given partition of the resource. Three simple admission policies are evaluated with regard to revenue generation. One policy involves no admission control and two policies involve trunk reservation. A limiting regime in which demand and capacity increase in proportion is considered. It is shown that each policy is asymptotically optimal for a certain range of parameters. Limiting dynamical behavior is obtained via a theory developed by Hunt and Kurtz. The results also point out the remarkable effect of partition constraints.

In this paper we consider the continuous-time filtering problem and we estimate the order of convergence of an interacting particle system scheme presented by the authors in previous works. We will discuss how the discrete time approximating model of the Kushner-Stratonovitch equation and the genetic type interacting particle system approximation combine. We present quenched error bounds as well as mean order convergence results.

We consider the optimal stochastic scheduling of a two-stage tandem queue with two parallel servers. The servers can serve either queue at any point in time and the objective is to minimize the total holding costs incurred until all jobs leave the system. We characterize sufficient and necessary conditions under which it is optimal to allocate both servers to the upstream or downstream queue. We then conduct a numerical study to investigate whether the results shown for the static case also hold for the dynamic case. Finally, we provide a numerical study that explores the benefits of having two flexible parallel servers which can work at either queue versus servers dedicated to each queue. We discuss the results' implications for cross-training workers to perform multiple tasks.

Long-range dependence has been recently asserted to be an important characteristic in modeling telecommunications traffic. Inspired by the integral relationship between the fractional Brownian motion and the standard Brownian motion, we model a process with long-range dependence, Y, as a fractional integral of Riemann-Liouville type applied to a more standard process X—one that does not have long-range dependence. When X takes the form of a sample path process with bounded stationary increments, we provide a criterion for X to satisfy a moderate deviations principle (MDP). Based on the MDP of X, we then establish the MDP for Y. Furthermore, we characterize, in terms of the MDP, the transient behavior of queues when fed with the long-range dependent input process Y. In particular, we identify the most likely path that leads to a large queue, and demonstrate that unlike the case where the input has short-range dependence, the path here is nonlinear.