The Adoption of Multiattribute Utility Theory for the Evaluation of Plutonium Disposition Options in the United States and Russia

John C. Butler; Alexander N. Chebeskov; James S. Dyer; Thomas A. Edmunds; Jianmin Jia; Vladimir I. Oussanov

doi:10.1017/CBO9780511611308.025

24 - The Adoption of Multiattribute Utility Theory for the Evaluation of Plutonium Disposition Options in the United States and Russia

Published online by Cambridge University Press: 05 June 2012

John C. Butler ,

Alexander N. Chebeskov ,

Jianmin Jia and

Edited by

Ralph F. Miles Jr. and

Detlof von Winterfeldt

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John C. Butler: Affiliation:
A. B. Freeman School of Business, Tulane University
Alexander N. Chebeskov: Affiliation:
State Scientific Center of Russian Federation, Institute for Physics and Power Engineering
James S. Dyer: Affiliation:
McCombs School of Business, University of Texas-Austin
Thomas A. Edmunds: Affiliation:
Systems and Decision Sciences Section, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Jianmin Jia: Affiliation:
Faculty of Business Administration, The Chinese University of Hong Kong
Vladimir I. Oussanov: Affiliation:
State Scientific Center of Russian Federation, Institute for Physics and Power Engineering
Ralph F. Miles Jr.: Affiliation:
California Institute of Technology
Detlof von Winterfeldt: Affiliation:
University of Southern California

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ABSTRACT. At the end of the Cold War, the United States and Russia entered into agreements that reduced the numbers of nuclear weapons in their arsenals. The possibility that excess plutonium recovered from dismantled weapons could fall into the hands of terrorists has been characterized as a “clear and present danger” by the National Academy of Sciences. Other disposition considerations include plutonium's potential for use as an energy source and its environmental impacts. A team of U.S. decision analysts was commissioned by the Department of Energy's Office of Fissile Materials Disposition to develop a multiattribute utility model to help evaluate alternatives for the disposition of the excess-weapons plutonium. Subsequent to the U.S. study, Russian scientists modified the model with the aid of the U.S. team, and used it to evaluate Russian disposition alternatives.

At the end of the Cold War, the United States and Russia entered into arms limitations and reduction agreements that reduced the numbers of nuclear weapons that would be in the arsenals of each nation. When these nuclear weapons are dismantled, plutonium pits – the triggers for modern nuclear weapons – are stored in anticipation of their ultimate disposal. Estimates of the numbers of weapons to be dismantled vary, but may be on the order of 15,000 in the United States and perhaps twice that many in Russia [NAS 95].

Type: Chapter
Information: Advances in Decision Analysis
From Foundations to Applications
, pp. 489 - 513

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511611308.025 [Opens in a new window]

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Print publication year: 2007

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References

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24 - The Adoption of Multiattribute Utility Theory for the Evaluation of Plutonium Disposition Options in the United States and Russia

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