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The addition of a set of cohort parameters to a mortality model can generate complex identifiability issues due to the collinearity between the dimensions of age, period and cohort. These issues can lead to robustness problems and difficulties making projections of future mortality rates. Since many modern mortality models incorporate cohort parameters, we believe that a comprehensive analysis of the identifiability issues in age/period/cohort mortality models is needed. In this paper, we discuss the origin of identifiability issues in general models before applying these insights to simple but commonly used mortality models. We then discuss how to project mortality models so that our forecasts of the future are independent of any arbitrary choices we make when fitting a model to data in order to identify the historical parameters.
Weedy rice (Oryza sativa f. spontanea Rosh.) is an emerging weed of California rice (Oryza sativa L.) that has potential to cause large yield losses. Early detection of weedy rice in the field is ideal to effectively control and prevent the spread of this weed. However, it is difficult to differentiate weedy rice from cultivated rice during early growth stages due to the close genetic and phenotypic relatedness of cultivated rice and weedy rice. The objective of this study is to examine phenotypic variation in weedy rice biotypes from California and to identify traits that could be used to visually identify weedy rice infestations at early growth stages for effective management. Greenhouse experiments were conducted in 2017 and 2018 using five phenotypically distinct biotypes of weedy rice found in California, along with diverse cultivated, weedy, and wild rice types in a randomized complete block design. We measured variation for 13 phenotypic traits associated with weedy rice, and conducted principal component analysis and factor analysis to identify important weedy traits. Most weedy rice individuals within a biotype clustered together by phenotypic similarity. Pericarp color, hull color, chlorophyll content, grain length, plant height, leaf pubescence, collar color, and leaf sheath color account for most of the observed variation. California weedy rice biotypes are phenotypically distinct from wild rice and from weedy rice from the southern United States in their combinations of seed phenotypes and vegetative characteristics. In comparison with the locally grown temperate japonica cultivars, California weedy rice tends to be taller, with lower chlorophyll content, and red pericarp. Weedy rice biotypes vary in seed shattering and seed dormancy. For weedy rice management, plant height and chlorophyll content are distinct traits that could be used to differentiate weedy rice from the majority of cultivated rice varieties in California during vegetative stages of rice growth.
As the field of modelling mortality has grown in recent years, the number and importance of identifiability issues within mortality models has grown in parallel. This has led both to robustness problems and to difficulties in making projections of future mortality rates. In this paper, we present a comprehensive analysis of the identifiability issues in age/period mortality models in order to first understand them better and then to resolve them. To achieve this, we discuss how these identification issues arise, how to choose identification schemes which aid our demographic interpretation of the models and how to project the models so that our forecasts of the future do not depend upon the arbitrary choices used to identify the historical parameters estimated from historical data.
Assisting the increasing number of tourists and foreign nationals exposed to crises situations in third countries—many of them far from home and extremely vulnerable—presents significant challenges. Despite the need to explore consular crisis management from an operational perspective, there are few studies that address the issue. This paper aims to describe the characteristics and context of consular crisis management operations based on personal experiences, scientific papers, grey literature, and key informant interviews.
Consular crisis management operations are conducted in a context where the stakeholders and the legal environment may differ from humanitarian or civil protection operations. The physical distance causes logistical challenges and demands specific considerations for both civilian and medical evacuation. Consular crisis management operations often include medical care, psychosocial support activities, and disaster victim identification (DVI) activities. Political and media interest may also add significant challenges to such operations. Therefore, specific knowledge, skills, and preparations are needed for both diplomatic crisis management professionals and health professionals. Further research on consular crisis management activities—as well as the concept of consular crisis management itself—is strongly needed.
Bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) have been surveyed for at least two decades on the southern Brazilian coast. However, little is known about their distribution and habitat use in lower latitudes of the South-western Atlantic Ocean. Aiming to study the movements and distribution of the species along the south-eastern Brazilian coast, we made a comparison of photo-identified individuals of the species catalogued in 21 cruises conducted between 2012 and 2015. Additionally, we performed stable isotope analyses of carbon and nitrogen in skin samples (N = 35) to provide some insights of dolphin habitat use and trophic ecology through comparisons among individuals of distinct surveyed sectors (northern and southern) and sex. A total of 177 individuals were identified. Re-sightings (N = 24) occurred at intervals from 82 to 979 days at distances from 7 to 179 km. No individual was sighted in both sectors, suggesting spatial segregation. Isotopic comparisons showed no significant differences in carbon and nitrogen signatures between distinct sectors. However, ecological divergences were found when we divided the samples by gender. Wider isotopic niches were found for the northern bottlenose dolphins vs the southern ones, which could be related to temporal and spatial variation in the availability of resources, as well as possible differences in the home ranges of males and females in each region. This study represents a preliminary evaluation of ecological aspects of bottlenose dolphins along the Brazilian south-eastern coast, however, long-term studies on the feeding ecology and habitat use of this species are important to further improve our knowledge.
In maritime search and rescue (SAR), commanders need to understand the task execution efficiency of each SAR unit in real time to improve the overall efficiency of SAR efforts. This study proposes a method to evaluate the progress of maritime SAR missions using automatic identification system (AIS) data. First, the positioning accuracy of the AIS data was improved according to the relationship between position, speed, and course. Second, the historical track of the SAR ship was used to generate the SAR completion area based on a line buffer algorithm. The SAR completion area and SAR mission area were then superimposed to determine the overall progress of the SAR mission. The proposed method has been deployed within the SAR software on-board Haixun01 (China's largest and most advanced large-scale cruise rescue ship) since 2017 and has played an important role in devising SAR strategies and tracking mission progress, during several SAR actions.
Extant literature focuses on within-dyad opportunism (i.e., transgression of the norms of a specific business relationship) while neglecting pro-relational opportunism (i.e., transgression of societal norms to benefit the relationship), resulting in limited understanding of their different effects. We argue that opportunism is a significant threat to the identity of business partners and boundary spanners which results in different relational dynamics at different levels, that is, Type-I (i.e., interorganizational identification squeezing out interpersonal identification) and Type-II identification asymmetry (i.e., interpersonal identification dominating interorganizational identification). Identification asymmetry further mediates the effects of opportunism on exchange performance. Based on a matched manufacturer–supplier sample, we find strong support to the hypotheses. Moreover, distributive fairness aggravates the effect of pro-relational opportunism on identification asymmetry, while interactive fairness mitigates it. Our research provides more nuanced between-level findings on identification in interorganizational settings, and cautions against firms’ tendency toward Machiavellian reasoning when they face the temptation of complicit behavior for organizational gains.
Telenomus podisi Ashmead (Hymenoptera: Scelionidae) is the most important egg parasitoid of Euschistus heros (Fabricius) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), and its successful parasitism is related to their searching ability to find suitable hosts under a complex chemical environment using host-reliable cues. Thus, the objective of this study was to elucidate chemical substances on the external layer of E. heros eggs and report its potential kairomonal activity on T. podisi. We tested female wasps in olfactometer system to synthetic compounds obtained from a chemical identification of E. heros egg masses. The synthetic blend was also evaluated in parasitism tests under laboratory and semi-field conditions. We identified 31 substances from egg surface extracts, including monoterpenes, aldehydes and alkanes. Among those compounds, a synthetic solution including camphene, β-pinene, limonene and benzaldehyde-induced chemotaxic behaviour on the wasps and increased the parasitism on E. heros eggs, either in laboratory or semi-field test, suggesting its potential use to T. podisi manipulation and parasitism improvement.
The amphipod Ericthonius didymus Krapp-Schickel, 2013 is reported for the first time outside its type locality in European waters, from the French Atlantic coast and from the Azores, Portugal. In particular, a large population was recorded in Arcachon, France. Molecular analyses were made to confirm the validity of three closely related Ericthonius species: E. didymus, E. convexus and E. pugnax. An identification key is provided, distinguishing Ericthonius species into three groups, based on the presence or absence of stridulating ridges on coxa 2 and posterodistal lobe on basis of male pereopod 5.
The chapter finds in Joyce’s ‘The Dead’ a radical problematization of idiolect, one that creates a specific form of unstable narrative practice. It finds within these problematics a demand for what will be called the Loyolan Position: a mental stance towards the crises both Loyola and Joyce mobilize. The chapter is marked by a fresh, sustained close reading of one of the most well-read and well-analysed stories in English.
Emotional and interpersonal difficulties have been widely described in alcohol-dependence  and are thought to play a crucial role in the development and maintenance of this disease . In particular, impairments in the decoding of emotional facial expression (EFE) have been repeatedly reported and may have serious deleterious effects for the everyday life of alcohol-dependent individuals (ADI), notably by affecting their interpersonal relationships . However, the large majority of earlier studies that assessed emotional decoding abilities among ADI were interested in the processing of prototypical full-blown EFE while in everyday social life, EFE are usually not entirely straightforward but are rather composed of a mix of different emotions . The aim of this study was therefore to determine whether ADI exhibit the categorical perception effect, which is a critical process observed in healthy populations to efficiently decode ambiguous EFE. Nineteen recently detoxified ADI and 19 healthy controls (HC), matched for age and gender, were presented with facial stimuli depicting  EFE (happy, angry, sad, and neutral), morphed along continua between each possible pair of emotions. Participants had to indicate the predominant emotion within the randomly presented facial stimuli. For each EFE, a sigmoid function that estimated the percentage of identifications according to the morph steps was adjusted for each participant's data. While there was no significant group difference regarding the response slope (indicating how abruptly the shift in responses happens), the identification threshold (i.e. the function midpoint) was significantly increased in ADI compared to HC, independently of the EFE category. The categorical perception of EFE per se appeared thus preserved in alcohol-dependence, but ADI exhibited a bias in EFE decoding characterized by a global under-identification. To conclude, this study is the first to evidence an EFE processing deficit in ADI by using this kind of emotional continuum paradigm measuring the categorical perception effect.
Suicide is a major public health problem in the WHO European Region accounting for over 150,000 deaths per year.
Acute intervention should start immediately in order to keep the patient alive.
An underlying psychiatric disorder is present in up to 90% of people who completed suicide. Comorbidity with depression, anxiety, substance abuse and personality disorders is high. In order to achieve successful prevention of suicidality, adequate diagnostic procedures and appropriate treatment for the underlying disorder are essential.
Existing evidence supports the efficacy of pharmacological treatment and cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) in preventing suicidal behaviour. Some other psychological treatments are promising, but the supporting evidence is currently insufficient. Studies show that antidepressant treatment decreases the risk for suicidality among depressed patients. However, the risk of suicidal behaviour in depressed patients treated with antidepressants exists during the first 10–14 days of treatment, which requires careful monitoring. Short-term supplementary medication with anxiolytics and hypnotics in the case of anxiety and insomnia is recommended. Treatment with antidepressants of children and adolescents should only be given under supervision of a specialist. Long-term treatment with lithium has been shown to be effective in preventing both suicide and attempted suicide in patients with unipolar and bipolar depression. Treatment with clozapine is effective in reducing suicidal behaviour in patients with schizophrenia. Other atypical antipsychotics are promising but more evidence is required.
Multidisciplinary treatment teams including psychiatrist and other professionals such as psychologist, social worker, and occupational therapist are always preferable, as integration of pharmacological, psychological and social rehabilitation is recommended especially for patients with chronic suicidality.
The suicidal person independently of age should always be motivated to involve family in the treatment.
Psychosocial treatment and support is recommended, as the majority of suicidal patients have problems with relationships, work, school and lack functioning social networks.
A secure home, public and hospital environment, without access to suicidal means is a necessary strategy in suicide prevention. Each treatment option, prescription of medication and discharge of the patient from hospital should be carefully evaluated against the involved risks.
Training of personnel:
Training of general practitioners (GPs) is effective in the prevention of suicide. It improves treatment of depression and anxiety, quality of the provided care and attitudes towards suicide. Continuous training including discussions about ethical and legal issues is necessary for psychiatrists and other mental health professionals.
Alluvial mineral sands rank among the most complex subjects for mineral characterization due to the diverse range of minerals present in the sediments, which may collectively contain a daunting number of elements (>20) in major or minor concentrations (>1 wt%). To comprehensively characterize the phase abundance and chemistry of these complex mineral specimens, a method was developed using hyperspectral x-ray and cathodoluminescence mapping in an electron probe microanalyser (EPMA), coupled with automated cluster analysis and quantitative analysis of clustered x-ray spectra. This method proved successful in identifying and quantifying over 40 phases from mineral sand specimens, including unexpected phases with low modal abundance (<0.1%). The standard-based quantification method measured compositions in agreement with expected stoichiometry, with elemental detection limits in the range of <10–1,000 ppm, depending on phase abundance, and proved reliable even for challenging mineral species, such as the multi-rare earth element (REE) bearing mineral xenotime [(Y,REE)PO4] for which 24 elements were analyzed, including 12 overlapped REEs. The mineral identification procedure was also capable of characterizing mineral groups that exhibit significant compositional variability due to the substitution of multiple elements, such as garnets (Mg, Ca, Fe, Mn, Cr), pyroxenes (Mg, Ca, Fe), and amphiboles (Na, Mg, Ca, Fe, Al).
An imaging technique with sensitivity to short duration optical transients is described. The technique is based on the use of wide-field cameras operating in a drift scanning mode, whereby persistent objects produce trails on the sensor and short duration transients occupy localised groups of pixels. A benefit of the technique is that sensitivity to short duration signals is not accompanied by massive data rates, because the exposure time is much greater than the transient duration. The technique is demonstrated using a pre-prototype system composed of readily available and inexpensive commercial components, coupled with common coding environments, commercially available software, and free web-based services. The performance of the technique and the pre-prototype system is explored, including aspects of photometric and astrometric calibration, detection sensitivity, characterisation of candidate transients, and the differentiation of astronomical signals from non-astronomical signals (primarily glints from satellites in Earth orbit and cosmic ray hits on sensor pixels). Test observations were made using the pre-prototype system, achieving sensitivity to transients with 21-ms duration, resulting in the detection of five candidate transients. An investigation of these candidates concludes they are most likely due to cosmic ray hits on the sensor and/or satellites. The sensitivity obtained with the pre-prototype system is such that, under some models for the optical emission from fast radio bursts (FRBs), the detection of a typical FRB, such as FRB181228, to a distance of approximately 100 Mpc is plausible. Several options for improving the system/technique in the future are described.
This chapter looks at whether violence within and between groups played an important role in the Palaeolithic and Mesolithic periods. The evidence is based on osteological information, which is limited by preservation and the incomplete osteological record. With regards identified traumatic lesions, it seems problematic to distinguish between accidents and interpersonal violence. The first clear evidence of interpersonal and lethal violence on a large scale is from the Upper and Late Palaeolithic. Current data shows that cases of violent behaviour are evident through the Palaeolithic and Mesolithic periods, some of which gives evidence of group conflict. However, violent behaviour does not occur more often in later or earlier times of the Palaeolithic. Besides the evidence for violent interactions there is also sporadic evidence for treatment and care of trauma and other injuries throughout the Palaeolithic and Mesolithic. The increase in cases of interpersonal violence from the Mesolithic period is most likely related to better preservation and the much higher number of burials and more complete skeletons. Violence is present not only in recent hunter-gatherers and nomadic groups, but also among Palaeolithic and Mesolithic hunter-gatherers.
Between 2001 and 2017, the Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh conducted training and research in Belize built around an annual two-week field course, part of the Edinburgh M.Sc. programme in Biodiversity and Taxonomy of Plants, focused on tropical plant identification, botanical-collecting and tropical fieldwork skills. This long-term collaboration in one country has led to additional benefits, most notably capacity building, acquisition of new country records, completion of M.Sc. thesis projects and publication of the findings in journal articles, and continued cooperation. Detailed summaries are provided for the specimens collected by students during the field course or return visits to Belize for M.Sc. thesis projects. Additionally, 15 species not recorded in the national checklist for Belize are reported. The information in this paper highlights the benefits of collaborations between institutions and countries for periods greater than the typical funding cycles of three to five years.
The rise of social media empowers people to interact and communicate with anyone anywhere in the world. The possibility of being anonymous avoids censorship and enables freedom of expression. Nevertheless, this anonymity might lead to cybersecurity issues, such as opinion spam, sexual harassment, incitement to hatred or even terrorism propaganda. In such cases, there is a need to know more about the anonymous users and this could be useful in several domains beyond security and forensics such as marketing, for example. In this paper, we focus on a fine-grained analysis of language varieties while considering also the authors’ demographics. We present a Low-Dimensionality Statistical Embedding method to represent text documents. We compared the performance of this method with the best performing teams in the Author Profiling task at PAN 2017. We obtained an average accuracy of 92.08% versus 91.84% for the best performing team at PAN 2017. We also analyse the relationship of the language variety identification with the authors’ gender. Furthermore, we applied our proposed method to a more fine-grained annotated corpus of Arabic varieties covering 22 Arab countries and obtained an overall accuracy of 88.89%. We have also investigated the effect of the authors’ age and gender on the identification of the different Arabic varieties, as well as the effect of the corpus size on the performance of our method.
Rough-toothed dolphins (Steno bredanensis) are regularly present in continental shelf areas of the South-western Atlantic. However, there is little information on the natural history and ecology of these delphinids. This study evaluated the occurrence, habitat use and individual movements of the species in coastal waters off Rio de Janeiro, south-eastern Brazil. Data were obtained from boat surveys between August 2011 and May 2018, during which rough-toothed dolphins were sighted in 21 distinct events, predominantly in autumn and winter. The mean group size was 29 individuals. Rough-toothed dolphins were usually recorded 130 to 2300 m from the coast, between 7.6 and 28 m depths. In total, 115 individuals were catalogued through dorsal fin marks and 61 (53%) were resighted between one (47.5%) and four (9.8%) occasions. The interval between resightings ranged from seven to 2087 days (mean = 268). Agglomerative hierarchical clustering indicated 30 individuals (49.2%) in low degree, 12 (19.7%) in medium degree and 19 (31.1%) in high degree of site fidelity. Dolphins showed a higher frequency of low degree of habitat use, despite the presence of multiyear recaptures, which may be related to the prevalence of dolphin occurrence in autumn and winter, a large home range and/or the abundance and distribution of food resources. Dedicated surveys and regional collaboration are needed to evaluate the home range and population status of this species for their effective conservation. Our findings enhanced knowledge of this little studied species facing increasing anthropogenic threats in coastal waters off Rio de Janeiro.
We use doctrines of identification to explain how corporations may commit criminal offences in their own right, but current versions thereof have several shortcomings. Here, I suggest that reformulating the identification doctrine to treat all corporate officers and employees as embodying the corporation when acting within their real or ostensible authority, might remedy these shortcomings. Arguments against the resulting expansion of corporate criminal liability are unconvincing, especially when juxtaposed with the criminal law's response to similar arguments made on behalf of natural persons. This may indicate that we should also moderate the criminal law's harshness towards natural persons.
Most of what is known regarding political socialization treats parent–child concordance as evidence of transmission. This direct-transmission approach remains agnostic regarding how socialization occurs, whether traits have a role in a child's ability to identify and understand their parent's values or their motivation to adopt their parents’ values. This article advances a perception-adoption approach to unpack these microprocesses of socialization. The authors test their model using three independent studies in the United States that together comprise 4,852 parent–child dyads. They find that the transmission of partisan orientations from parent to child occurs less than half the time, which is qualitatively different from the generally held view. More importantly, the findings provide a greater understanding of how key predictors facilitate the political socialization process. Specifically, politicization improves child perception, but has no role in the child's motivation to adopt parental values. Closeness and parental value strength influence children to want to be like their parents, but do nothing to improve children's ability to recognize their parents' values. And education, previously thought to have little role in transmission, does not influence a child's ability to understand their parent's affiliation, but appears to make children more likely to reject whatever they believe it to be.