The authors developed a practical and clinically useful model to predict the risk of psychosis that utilizes clinical characteristics empirically demonstrated to be strong predictors of conversion to psychosis in clinical high-risk (CHR) individuals. The model is based upon the Structured Interview for Psychosis Risk Syndromes (SIPS) and accompanying clinical interview, and yields scores indicating one's risk of conversion.

Baseline data, including demographic and clinical characteristics measured by the SIPS, were obtained on 199 CHR individuals seeking evaluation in the early detection and intervention for mental disorders program at the New York State Psychiatric Institute at Columbia University Medical Center. Each patient was followed for up to 2 years or until they developed a syndromal DSM-4 disorder. A LASSO logistic fitting procedure was used to construct a model for conversion specifically to a psychotic disorder.

At 2 years, 64 patients (32.2%) converted to a psychotic disorder. The top five variables with relatively large standardized effect sizes included SIPS subscales of visual perceptual abnormalities, dysphoric mood, unusual thought content, disorganized communication, and violent ideation. The concordance index (c-index) was 0.73, indicating a moderately strong ability to discriminate between converters and non-converters.

The prediction model performed well in classifying converters and non-converters and revealed SIPS measures that are relatively strong predictors of conversion, comparable with the risk calculator published by NAPLS (c-index = 0.71), but requiring only a structured clinical interview. Future work will seek to externally validate the model and enhance its performance with the incorporation of relevant biomarkers.

Reduced hippocampal volume is a consistently described structural abnormality in schizophrenia but its cause and timing are not known.

To examine the relationship of duration of schizophrenic illness and treatment effects with hippocampal volumes.

Quantitative 1.5 T magnetic resonance imaging brain scans of young male patients in the early stage of schizophrenic illness were compared with those of chronically ill older patients. Scans were also acquired for controls matched to both patient groups for age and handedness. Duration of illness was recorded and severity of symptoms assessed with the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale.

The patients with schizophrenia had smaller hippocampal volumes than the controls. The volume reduction was larger in older patients than in young, compared with age-matched controls. In the early illness group atypical antipsychotics rather than haloperidol were associated with larger hippocampal volumes even after controlling for differences in illness severity Conclusions The greater reduction of hippocampal volume in people with chronic v. early illness, after controlling for illness severity and age, supports the hypothesis of progressive hippocampal reduction in males with schizophrenia. Atypical antipsychotics early in illness may protect against this.