Advice on replacing unhealthy foods with healthier alternatives within the same food category may be more acceptable and might ease the transition towards a healthy diet. Here, we studied the potential impact of substitutions within the pizza category on the risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D). The study sample consisted of 2510 adults from the INCA2 French national survey. Based on their nutritional characteristics, the 353 pizzas marketed in France were grouped into 100 clusters that were used to run various scenarios of pizza substitutions, which were either isoenergetic (IE) or non-isoenergetic (NIE). We then used a model structurally similar to the Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl to assess the expected rate of change in risk of T2D. Pizzas characterised by a low energy, high vegetable content and whole grain dough were associated with a greater reduction in the risk of T2D. The rates of change in risk of T2D were markedly stronger in men and for NIE substitutions. When the rates of change were estimated in the subsample of pizza consumers, replacing the observed pizzas with the best pizza resulted in a T2D risk reduction of −6·7 % (–8·4 %; −4·9 %, IE) and −8·9 % (–11·2 %; −6·3 %, NIE), assuming that this is their usual diets. The greatest risk reduction induced by an IE substitution of the observed pizza with a mixed dish was similar to that observed with the best pizzas. Overall, this modelling study suggests that healthy swaps within a category can effectively supplement broader dietary changes towards a healthier diet.

We evaluated the association between dietary estimates of fatty acid (FA) consumption and type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk in the French E3N (Etude Epidémiologique auprès des femmes de la Mutuelle Générale de l’Education Nationale) cohort. In total, 71 334 women without diabetes at baseline were followed up from 1993 to 2011. Diabetes was identified using questionnaires and drug-reimbursement claims, and incident cases were validated. FA consumption in 1993 was estimated from a validated dietary questionnaire. Cox regression estimated hazard ratios (HR) and 95 % CI of diabetes risk, comparing the upper tertile group with the lowest. High n-3 PUFA consumption was associated with T2D even after adjustment for confounders, including other FA and BMI (HR 1·26; 95 % CI 1·13, 1·41; upper tertile compared with lowest). Upon stratification by overweight (BMI≥25 kg/m2)/non-overweight, a positive association between total PUFA consumption and T2D was observed, but it was restricted to non-overweight women (HR 1·22; 95 % CI 1·05, 1·42), whereas n-3 PUFA consumption was associated with increased T2D risk in both BMI strata (BMI<25 kg/m2: HR 1·19; 95 % CI 1·01, 1·40 and BMI≥25 kg/m2: HR 1·38; 95 % CI 1·20, 1·59). Within the n-3 PUFA, high DPA (HR 1·41; 95 % CI 1·23, 1·63) and α-linolenic acid (ALA) intakes were associated with increased T2D risk, but the effects of ALA were restricted to overweight women (HR 1·17; 95 % CI 1·01, 1·36). Within the n-6 PUFA, only arachidonic acid (AA) intake was associated with T2D risk (HR 1·49; 95 % CI 1·33, 1·66). The associations with DPA and AA persisted even after adjustment of their principal source in this cohort, the consumption of meat. The effects of PUFA are heterogeneous within the FA group. Intake of DPA and AA may contribute to T2D development.

Egg consumption is a major source of dietary cholesterol, a nutrient that may disrupt glucose metabolism. We prospectively evaluated the relation between egg consumption and cholesterol-intake and diabetes in 65 364 French disease-free women who responded to a validated diet history questionnaire in 1993. Egg consumption included hardboiled eggs and eggs consumed in an omelette or a mixed dish, and dietary cholesterol was estimated using a French nutrient database. Over 14 years of follow-up, 1803 incident diabetes cases were identified through self-reports, supplementary questionnaires and drug reimbursement information. Multivariable Cox regression models were adjusted for age, education, menopause, menopausal hormone therapy, hypertension and hypercholesterolaemia, BMI, physical activity, smoking, alcohol, fruit, vegetables, processed red meat, coffee and sugar and artificially sweetened beverages. No association was observed between egg consumption and risk of type 2 diabetes. When comparing women who consumed at least five eggs per week with non-consumers, the multivariable hazard ratio (HR) was found to be 1·00 (95 % CI 0·78, 1·29; across categories, Ptrend=0·11). Women in the highest quintile of dietary cholesterol had a 40 % higher rate of diabetes compared with those in the lowest quintile (HR 1·40; 95 % CI 1·19, 1·63; across quintiles, Ptrend<0·0001). A 100 mg increase of dietary cholesterol per 4184 kJ (or 1000 kcal) was associated with a 14 % increase in the risk of diabetes (HR 1·14; 95 % CI 1·02, 1·26). In this large prospective cohort, we observed an association between dietary cholesterol and type 2 diabetes, but no association with egg consumption. In the absence of a clear underlying mechanism and potential residual confounding, these results should be interpreted with caution.

Whole-grain intake has been reported to be associated with a lower risk of several lifestyle-related diseases such as type 2 diabetes, CVD and some types of cancers. As measurement errors in self-reported whole-grain intake assessments can be substantial, dietary biomarkers are relevant to be used as complementary tools for dietary intake assessment. Alkylresorcinols (AR) are phenolic lipids found almost exclusively in whole-grain wheat and rye products among the commonly consumed foods and are considered as valid biomarkers of the intake of these products. In the present study, we analysed the plasma concentrations of five AR homologues in 2845 participants from ten European countries from a nested case–control study in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. High concentrations of plasma total AR were found in participants from Scandinavia and Central Europe and lower concentrations in those from the Mediterranean countries. The geometric mean plasma total AR concentrations were between 35 and 41 nmol/l in samples drawn from fasting participants in the Central European and Scandinavian countries and below 23 nmol/l in those of participants from the Mediterranean countries. The whole-grain source (wheat or rye) could be determined using the ratio of two of the homologues. The main source was wheat in Greece, Italy, the Netherlands and the UK, whereas rye was also consumed in considerable amounts in Germany, Denmark and Sweden. The present study demonstrates a considerable variation in the plasma concentrations of total AR and concentrations of AR homologues across ten European countries, reflecting both quantitative and qualitative differences in the intake of whole-grain wheat and rye.

Phenolic acids are secondary plant metabolites that may have protective effects against oxidative stress, inflammation and cancer in experimental studies. To date, limited data exist on the quantitative intake of phenolic acids. We estimated the intake of phenolic acids and their food sources and associated lifestyle factors in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. Phenolic acid intakes were estimated for 36 037 subjects aged 35–74 years and recruited between 1992 and 2000 in ten European countries using a standardised 24 h recall software (EPIC-Soft), and their food sources were identified. Dietary data were linked to the Phenol-Explorer database, which contains data on forty-five aglycones of phenolic acids in 452 foods. The total phenolic acid intake was highest in Aarhus, Denmark (1265·5 and 980·7 mg/d in men and women, respectively), while the intake was lowest in Greece (213·2 and 158·6 mg/d in men and women, respectively). The hydroxycinnamic acid subclass was the main contributor to the total phenolic acid intake, accounting for 84·6–95·3 % of intake depending on the region. Hydroxybenzoic acids accounted for 4·6–14·4 %, hydroxyphenylacetic acids 0·1–0·8 % and hydroxyphenylpropanoic acids ≤ 0·1 % for all regions. An increasing south–north gradient of consumption was also found. Coffee was the main food source of phenolic acids and accounted for 55·3–80·7 % of the total phenolic acid intake, followed by fruits, vegetables and nuts. A high heterogeneity in phenolic acid intake was observed across the European countries in the EPIC cohort, which will allow further exploration of the associations with the risk of diseases.

A greater adherence to the traditional Mediterranean (MED) diet is associated with a reduced risk of developing chronic diseases. This dietary pattern is based on higher consumption of plant products that are rich in flavonoids. We compared the total flavonoid dietary intakes, their food sources and various lifestyle factors between MED and non-MED countries participating in the EPIC study. Flavonoid intakes and their food sources for 35 628 subjects, aged 35–74 years and recruited between 1992 and 2000, in twenty-six study centres were estimated using standardised 24 h dietary recall software (EPIC-Soft®). An ad hoc food composition database on flavonoids was compiled using analytical data from the United States Department of Agriculture and Phenol-Explorer databases. Moreover, it was expanded to include using recipes, estimations of missing values and flavonoid retention factors. No significant differences in total flavonoid mean intake between non-MED countries (373·7 mg/d) and MED countries (370·2 mg/d) were observed. In the non-MED region, the main contributors were proanthocyanidins (48·2 %) and flavan-3-ol monomers (24·9 %) and the principal food sources were tea (25·7 %) and fruits (32·8 %). In the MED region, proanthocyanidins (59·0 %) were by far the most abundant contributor and fruits (55·1 %), wines (16·7 %) and tea (6·8 %) were the main food sources. The present study shows similar results for total dietary flavonoid intakes, but significant differences in flavonoid class intakes, food sources and some characteristics between MED and non-MED countries. These differences should be considered in studies about the relationships between flavonoid intake and chronic diseases.

Fish consumption is the major dietary source of EPA and DHA, which according to rodent experiments may reduce body fat mass and prevent obesity. Only a few human studies have investigated the association between fish consumption and body-weight gain. We investigated the association between fish consumption and subsequent change in body weight. Women and men (n 344 757) participating in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition were followed for a median of 5·0 years. Linear and logistic regression were used to investigate the associations between fish consumption and subsequent change in body weight. Among women, the annual weight change was 5·70 (95 % CI 4·35, 7·06), 2·23 (95 % CI 0·16, 4·31) and 11·12 (95 % CI 8·17, 14·08) g/10 g higher total, lean and fatty fish consumption per d, respectively. The OR of becoming overweight in 5 years among women who were normal weight at enrolment was 1·02 (95 % CI 1·01, 1·02), 1·01 (95 % CI 1·00, 1·02) and 1·02 (95 % CI 1·01, 1·04) g/10 g higher total, lean and fatty consumption per d, respectively. Among men, fish consumption was not statistically significantly associated with weight change. Adjustment for potential over- or underestimation of fish consumption did not systematically change the observed associations, but the 95 % CI became wider. The results in subgroups from analyses stratified by age or BMI at enrolment were not systematically different. In conclusion, the present study suggests that fish consumption has no appreciable association with body-weight gain.

Epidemiological studies suggest health-protective effects of flavan-3-ols and their derived compounds on chronic diseases. The present study aimed to estimate dietary flavan-3-ol, proanthocyanidin (PA) and theaflavin intakes, their food sources and potential determinants in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) calibration cohort. Dietary data were collected using a standardised 24 h dietary recall software administered to 36 037 subjects aged 35–74 years. Dietary data were linked with a flavanoid food composition database compiled from the latest US Department of Agriculture and Phenol-Explorer databases and expanded to include recipes, estimations and retention factors. Total flavan-3-ol intake was the highest in UK Health-conscious men (453·6 mg/d) and women of UK General population (377·6 mg/d), while the intake was the lowest in Greece (men: 160·5 mg/d; women: 124·8 mg/d). Monomer intake was the highest in UK General population (men: 213·5 mg/d; women: 178·6 mg/d) and the lowest in Greece (men: 26·6 mg/d in men; women: 20·7 mg/d). Theaflavin intake was the highest in UK General population (men: 29·3 mg/d; women: 25·3 mg/d) and close to zero in Greece and Spain. PA intake was the highest in Asturias (men: 455·2 mg/d) and San Sebastian (women: 253 mg/d), while being the lowest in Greece (men: 134·6 mg/d; women: 101·0 mg/d). Except for the UK, non-citrus fruits (apples/pears) were the highest contributors to the total flavan-3-ol intake. Tea was the main contributor of total flavan-3-ols in the UK. Flavan-3-ol, PA and theaflavin intakes were significantly different among all assessed groups. This study showed heterogeneity in flavan-3-ol, PA and theaflavin intake throughout the EPIC countries.

Anthocyanidins are bioactive flavonoids with potential health-promoting effects. These may vary among single anthocyanidins considering differences in their bioavailability and some of the mechanisms involved. The aim of the present study was to estimate the dietary intake of anthocyanidins, their food sources and the lifestyle factors (sex, age, BMI, smoking status, educational level and physisical activity) involved among twenty-seven centres in ten European countries participating in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. Anthocyanidin intake and their food sources for 36 037 subjects, aged between 35 and 74 years, in twenty-seven redefined centres were obtained using standardised 24 h dietary recall software (EPIC-SOFT). An ad hoc food composition database on anthocyanidins (cyanidin, delphinidin, malvidin, pelargonidin, peonidin, petunidin) was compiled using data from the US Department of Agriculture and Phenol-Explorer databases and was expanded by adding recipes, estimated values and cooking factors. For men, the total anthocyanidin mean intake ranged from 19·83 (se 1·53) mg/d (Bilthoven, The Netherlands) to 64·88 (se 1·86) mg/d (Turin, Italy), whereas for women the range was 18·73 (se 2·80) mg/d (Granada, Spain) to 44·08 (se 2·45) mg/d (Turin, Italy). A clear south to north gradient intake was observed. Cyanidins and malvidins were the main anthocynidin contributors depending on the region and sex. Anthocyanidin intake was higher in non-obese older females, non-smokers, and increased with educational level and physical activity. The major food sources were fruits, wine, non-alcoholic beverages and some vegetables. The present study shows differences in both total and individual anthocyanidin intakes and various lifestyle factors throughout Europe, with some geographical variability in their food sources.