Stakan is one of eleven new constituencies1 created in a 2015 redelineation of Sarawak's legislative districts. It was carved out of Muara Tuang, which is under the Kota Samarahan parliamentary constituency and has always been a stronghold for the Barisan Nasional (BN, National Front). Of the eleven new state constituencies, Stakan was especially controversial due to its huge number of postal votes – votes cast under special circumstances, particularly by members of the armed forces and police. Postal voters in Stakan account for 47.8 per cent of registered voters in Stakan and represent 28.1 per cent of total postal voters in Sarawak.

As described below, it is generally presumed in Malaysia that postal votes will fall overwhelmingly to the BN. The demographics of Stakan thus entailed huge odds against the opposition. Nevertheless, the Democratic Action Party (DAP) took a gamble and fielded a candidate to deny the BN a walkover victory. As predicted, the BN won, gaining 8,820 votes (59.4 per cent of eligible voters), for a 7,042 majority over the DAP, which secured only 1,778 votes. Voter turnout was 73 per cent.

The election result in Stakan was most likely determined by postal votes, and the prevalence of these voters also shaped the campaign and its messages. This chapter attempts to determine the extent to which postal voters affected the electoral outcome in Stakan and, given the nature of the contest, whether the issues raised by the candidates in Stakan matched the issues of concern to local voters.

Background to the contest in Stakan

Stakan (see Map 1) has a total of 14,846 registered voters, comprised of 7,788 ordinary voters and 7,050 postal voters. A semi-rural seat, Stakan has an ethnic composition of 41.9 per cent Malay/Melanau, 21 per cent Iban, 18 per cent Chinese, 14.1 per cent Bidayuh, 1 per cent Orang Ulu and 3.1 per cent Others. (These ‘Others’ include Javanese who reside in a few villages in the area, such as Kampung Jawa Batu 12 and Kampung Sri Arjuna.)

The BN candidate, businessman Mohammad Ali Mahmud, was the two-term incumbent state assemblyman for Muara Tuang and is also the younger brother of former Sarawak chief minister Abdul Taib Mahmud. Ali's previous victories in Muara Tuang were said to owe more to his kinship to his brother than to his own credibility as a candidate.