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5 - BARRIERS TO GROWTH

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  21 October 2015

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Summary

The following elements all augur a society with less — at least relatively — to distribute among citizens, irrespective of the expectation that has been built up over the preceding twenty-five years that says every year should deliver more to distribute. We thus move gradually into circumstances which see society moving from distributing benefits to burden sharing.

This explains the emphasis in this book upon social capital. Burden sharing among citizens with no or little trust in one another is almost an insurmountable political task, while burden sharing among citizens held together by common values inside the framework of social capital may be manageable, especially when we recall that adroit policymaking may turn this situation into one of distributing fewer benefits rather than outright cutting down on what is at the disposal of each citizen.

Demographics has favoured Asia for the preceding twenty-five years, but has now turned into a major policy issue affecting the competitiveness among Asian countries, changing the composition of the various populations, calling for more care functions, asking for more resources, and shifting, albeit moderately, the proportions of people adhering to main religions.

This in itself makes future economic life and, in particular, future consumption more uncertain for the individual. Given the embryonic structure of welfare benefits, the consumer is pushed towards weighing up consumption here and now, against future pensions without any certainty about their size which depends on economic growth and societal development.

With high economic growth, resources are available for building a welfare system, but policymakers need to make up their minds and rally the population behind the course they choose, from the many options available, both with regard to the size of benefits, including pensions, and the way they are financed (private savings, through corporations, or using the public budget via taxes).

At the same time Asia, like the rest of the world, must face the coming era of scarcities and shortages in at least five sectors: food, commodities, energy, water, and a clean environment factoring in climate change. They all call for more money that has to be diverted from other economic activities of which private consumption is an obvious candidate.

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How Asia Can Shape the World
From the Era of Plenty to the Era of Scarcities
, pp. 328 - 399
Publisher: ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute
Print publication year: 2010

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