Introduction

Attempts to predict trends in technology beyond the very short term are fraught with difficulty, and frequently offer little more than unintentional entertainment for future readers. Having said that, in as rapidly changing a field as digital preservation, there is some value in considering the areas of progress that are most apparent, and how they may manifest. This chapter looks at emerging technologies and trends within the digital preservation community and beyond, where they are likely to have an impact on that community.

Preservation tools and services

To date, the majority of research into, and implementation of, digital preservation services has taken place within the public sector, led by the national memory institutions. As a result, the market for commercial solutions has remained relatively small, but there are indications that the private sector is now beginning to grapple with these issues in earnest. The potential demand from sectors such as banking, pharmaceuticals and aerospace is colossal (see ‘The current market’ in Chapter 4). These organizations typically look for commercial, ‘off-the-shelf’ solutions. If this trend continues, it could substantially change the shape of the market, encouraging a wide range of vendors to offer digital preservation solutions. Such a development can only be positive, creating a healthy degree of competition.

Current commercial services have typically emerged from the incubators of flagship public sector projects: for example, Ex Libris’ Rosetta from the National Library of New Zealand's National Digital Heritage Archive, and Tessella's SDB from the UK National Archives’ digital archive. These vendors have tended to market their products to the large cultural memory institutions, focusing on consolidating their positions in these sectors. However, this is a small market and easily saturated, and they are increasingly looking to diversify, targeting smaller organizations, with correspondingly more modest budgets. One manifestation of this is likely to be a growth in utility preservation services in the Cloud, such as Tessella's Preservica (see Chapter 4, ‘Models for implementing a digital preservation service’ and later in this chapter). Another might be ‘lite’ versions of products, offering lower implementation and support costs at the price of less flexibility.