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Chapter 3 - Modeling Pessimism: Does Climate Stabilization Require a Failure of Development?

from Part I - Perspectives on Climate and Equity

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  03 November 2017

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Summary

Climate economics models often assume that middle-income countries’ per capita incomes will catch up with those of today's high-income countries, while low-income countries will lag behind. This choice underrates the least developed countries’ chance to escape poverty. The consequences in terms of the resulting policy advice are stark: assumed slow growth for the poorest countries means lower projected business-as-usual emissions and, as a consequence, much weaker emissions reduction goals. But what if low-income countries grow more quickly, as China and India have? In the absence of emission reduction policies, fast economic development would mean higher business-as-usual emissions in the future, and would therefore require more ambitious global emissions reductions policies today. This chapter reviews current practices in modeling income growth in integrated assessment models of climate and economy; provides an empirical illustration of the impact that more optimistic economic development expectations would have on emissions mitigation targets; discusses the kinds of policies necessary to adequately reduce emissions per dollar of economic output in a scenario of robust economic development for the poorest countries; and concludes with recommendations for integrated assessment modelers.

Introduction

How big is the climate problem? That depends, in part, on one's assumptions about the inescapably uncertain scale of future economic growth and consequent emissions. If policy makers believe that economic growth will be slow, they should expect future emissions and the climatic changes that result from them to be relatively small. If instead policy makers believe that the global economy will expand rapidly, they should expect higher emissions, and therefore should plan for more stringent mitigation policies.

High versus low economic growth may seem, at first, like a bland parameter adjustment, made solely with the goal of more accurate emissions projections and policy goals. In actuality, the choice of growth scenarios is normative and politically laden. When climate economics models assume that middleincome countries’ per capita incomes will catch up with those of today's high-income countries, while low-income countries will lag behind, a choice is made to underrate the least developed countries’ chance to escape poverty. The consequences in terms of the resulting policy advice are stark: assumed slow growth for the poorest countries means lower projected business-as-usual emissions and, as a consequence, weaker emissions reduction goals.

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Publisher: Anthem Press
Print publication year: 2014

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