Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Hostname: page-component-848d4c4894-wzw2p Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-05-01T13:59:42.845Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

12 - Beyond the megaprojects paradox

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 July 2014

Bent Flyvbjerg
Affiliation:
Aalborg University, Denmark
Nils Bruzelius
Affiliation:
Stockholms Universitet
Werner Rothengatter
Affiliation:
Universität Fridericiana Karlsruhe, Germany
Get access

Summary

The point of departure for this book was a paradox. Recent years have witnessed a steep increase around the world in the magnitude, frequency and geographical spread of megaprojects, namely multibillion-dollar infrastructure projects such as airports, high-speed rail, urban rail, tunnels, bridges, ports, motorways, dams, power plants, water projects, oil and gas extraction projects, information and telecommunications technology systems, and so on. Never in the history of humankind have we built more, or more expensive, infrastructure projects. And never have such projects been more central to establishing what sociologist Zygmunt Bauman calls ‘independence from space’ and Microsoft chair Bill Gates ‘frictionless capitalism’. Yet when actual versus predicted performance of megaprojects are compared, the picture is often dismal. We have documented in this book that:

  1. • Cost overruns of 50 per cent to 100 per cent in real terms are common in megaprojects; overruns above 100 per cent are not uncommon;

  2. • Demand forecasts that are wrong by 20 per cent to 70 per cent compared with actual developments are common;

  3. • The extent and magnitude of actual environmental impacts of projects are often very different from forecast impacts. Post-auditing is neglected;

  4. • The substantial regional, national and sometimes international development effects commonly claimed by project promoters typically do not materialise, or they are so diffuse that researchers cannot detect them;

  5. • Actual project viability typically does not correspond with forecast viability, the latter often being brazenly over-optimistic.

Type
Chapter
Information
Megaprojects and Risk
An Anatomy of Ambition
, pp. 136 - 142
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2003

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure coreplatform@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Available formats
×