Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Hostname: page-component-848d4c4894-x5gtn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-05-03T02:26:23.752Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

References

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 June 2012

Thomas Gilovich
Affiliation:
Cornell University, New York
Dale Griffin
Affiliation:
Stanford University, California
Daniel Kahneman
Affiliation:
Princeton University, New Jersey
Get access

Summary

Image of the first page of this content. For PDF version, please use the ‘Save PDF’ preceeding this image.'
Type
Chapter
Information
Heuristics and Biases
The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment
, pp. 763 - 854
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2002

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Abarbanell, J. S., & Bernard, V. L. (1992). Tests of analysts overreaction/underreaction to earnings information as an explanation for anomalous stock price behavior. Journal of Finance, 47, 1181–1207. [38] Google Scholar
Abell, G. O. (1981). Astrology. In Science and the paranormal: Probing the existence of the supernatural (pp. 70–94), G. O. Abell & B. Singer (Eds.). New York: Charles Scribner & Sons. [34] Google Scholar
Adams, E. W. (1975). The logic of conditionals. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: D. Reidel. [3] Google Scholar
Adelmann, P., & Zajonc, R. (1989). Facial efference and the experience of emotion. Annual Review of Psychology, 40, 249–280. [5] Google ScholarPubMed
Adler, J. E. (1984). Abstraction is uncooperative. Journal for the Theory of Social Behaviour, 14, 165–181. [24] Google Scholar
Adler, J. E. (1991). An optimist's pessimism: Conversation and conjunctions. In Probability and rationality: Studies on L. Jonathan Cohen's philosophy of science (pp. 251–282), E. Eells & T. Maruszewski (Eds.). Amsterdam: Editions Rodopi. [24] Google Scholar
Affleck, G., & Tennen, H. (1996). Construing benefits from adversity: Adaptational significance and dispositional underpinnings. Journal of Personality, 64, 899–922. [16] Google ScholarPubMed
Agnoli, F. (1991). Development of judgmental heuristics and logical reasoning: Training counteracts the representativeness heuristic. Cognitive Development, 6, 195–217. [2] Google Scholar
Agnoli, F., & Krantz, D. H. (1989). Suppressing natural heuristicsbyformal instruction: The case of the conjunction fallacy. Cognitive Psychology, 21, 515–550. [2] Google Scholar
Ahlers, D., & Lakonishok, J. (1983). A study of economists' consensus forecasts. Management Science, 29, 1113–1125. [38] Google Scholar
Ainslie, G. (1992). Picoeconomics: The strategic interaction of successive motivational states within the person. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [16] Google Scholar
Ajzen, I. (1977). Intuitive theories of events and the effects of base rate information on prediction. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 35, 303–314. [1, 24] Google Scholar
Ajzen, I. (1991). The theory of planned behavior. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 50, 179–211. [14] Google Scholar
Ajzen, I., & Madden, T. J. (1986). Prediction of goal-directed behavior: Attitudes, intentions, and perceived behavioral control. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 22, 453–474. [14] Google Scholar
Alhakami, A. S., & Slovic, P. (1994). A psychological study of the inverse relationship between perceived risk and perceived benefit. Risk Analysis, 14 (6), 1085–1096. [23] Google Scholar
Alicke, M. D., Klotz, M. L., Breitenbecher, D. L., Yurak, T. J., & Vredenburg, D. S. (1995). Personal contact, individuation, and the better-than-average effect. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 68, 804–825. [27,36] Google Scholar
Alker, H., & Hermann, M. (1971). Are Bayesian decisions artificially intelligent? The effect of task and personality on conservatism in information processing. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 19, 31–41. [24] Google Scholar
Allen, S. W., & Brooks, L. R. (1991). Specializing the operation of an explicit rule. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 120, 3–19. [22] Google Scholar
Allison, S. T., & Beggan, J. K. (1994). Estimating popular support for group decision outcomes: An anchoring and adjustment model. Journal of Social Behavior & Personality, 9, 617–638. [6] Google Scholar
Allison, S. T., & Messick, D. M. (1990). Social decision heuristics and the use of shared resources. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 3, 195–204. [30] Google Scholar
Alpert, M., & Raiffa, H. (1982). A progress report on the training of probability assessors. In Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 294–305), D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.). Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [13,15] Google Scholar
Amir, E., & Ganzach, Y. (1998). Overreaction and underreaction in analysts' forecasts. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 37, 333–347. [38] Google Scholar
Andersen, S. M., & Ross, L. (1984). Self knowledge and social inference: I. The impact of cognitive/affective and behavioral data. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 46, 280–293. [36] Google Scholar
Andersen, S. M. (1984). Self knowledge and social inference: II. The diagnosticity of cognitive/affective and behavioral data. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 46, 294–307. [36] Google Scholar
Anderson, C. A. (1983a). Abstract and concrete data in the perseverance of social theories: When weak data lead to unshakeable beliefs. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 19, 93–108. [20] Google Scholar
Anderson, C. A. (1983b). Imagination and expectation: The effect of imagining behavioral scripts on personal intentions. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 45, 293–305. [4,17,19] Google Scholar
Anderson, C. A., Lepper, M. R., & Ross, L. (1980). Perseverance of social theories: The role of explanation in the persistence of discredited information. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 39, 1037–1049. [4] Google Scholar
Anderson, J. R. (1983). A spreading activation theory of memory. Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior, 22, 261–295. [20] Google Scholar
Anderson, N. H. (1968). Likableness ratings of 555 personality-trait words. Journal of Personalility and Social Psychology, 9, 272–279. [18] Google ScholarPubMed
Anderson, N. H. (1981). Foundations of information integration theory. New York: Academic Press. [20, 23] Google Scholar
Anderson, N. H. (1991). Contributions to Information Integration Theory. Vol. I: Cognition. Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [2] Google Scholar
Anderson, N. H. (1996). A functional theory of cognition. Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [2] Google Scholar
Andrews, F. M., & Robinson, J. P. (1991). Measures of subjective well-being. InMeasures of personality and social psychological attitudes (Vol. 1, pp. 61–114), J. P. Robinson, P. R. Shaver, & L. S. Wrightsman (Eds.), San Diego: Academic Press. [16] Google Scholar
Angier, N. (1999). Woman: An intimate geography. Boston: Houghton Mifflin Company. [30] Google Scholar
Appadurai, A. (1981). Gastro-politics in Hindu South Asia. American Ethnologist, 8, 494–511. [11] Google Scholar
Appley, M. H. (Ed.). (1971). Adaptation-level theory: A symposium. New York: Academic Press. [20] Google Scholar
Ariely, D. (1998). Combining experiences over time: The effects of duration, intensity changes and on-line measurements on retrospective pain evaluations. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 11, 19–45. [2] Google Scholar
Ariely, D. (2001). Seeing sets: Representation by statistical properties. Psychological Science, 12 (2), 157–162. [2] Google ScholarPubMed
Ariely, D., Kahneman, D., & Loewenstein, G. (2000). Joint comment on “When does duration matter in judgment and decision making?” (Ariely & Loewenstein, 2000). Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 129, 524–529. [2] Google Scholar
Ariely, D., & Loewenstein, G. (2000). When does duration matter in judgment and decision making? Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 129, 508–523. [2] Google ScholarPubMed
Arkes, H. R. (1991). Costs and benefits of judgment errors: Implications for debiasing. Psychological Bulletin, 110, 486–498. [6] Google Scholar
Arkes, H. R. (2001). Overconfidence in judgmental forecasting. In Principles of forecasting handbook (pp. 495–515), J. S. Armstrong (Ed.). Boston: Kluwer. [41] Google Scholar
Arkes, H. R., & Blumer, C. (1985). The psychology of sunk cost. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 35, 125–140. [32] Google Scholar
Arkes, H. R., Dawson, N. V., Speroff, T., Harrell, F. E. Jr., Alzola, C., Phillips, R., Desbiens, N., Oye, R. K., Knaus, W., Connors, A. F. Jr., & the SUPPORT Investigators (1995). The covariance decomposition of the probability score and its use in evaluating prognostic estimates. Medical Decision Making, 15, 120–131. [39] Google ScholarPubMed
Arkes, H. R., Faust, D., Guilmette, T. J., & Hart, K. (1988). Eliminating the hindsight bias. Journal of Applied Psychology, 73, 305–307. [6, 14] Google Scholar
Arkes, H. R., Wortmann, R. L., Saville, P. D., & Harkness, A. R. (1981). Hindsight bias among physicians weighing the likelihood of diagnoses. Journal of Applied Psychology, 66, 252–254. [40] Google ScholarPubMed
Arkin, R. A., & Duval, S. (1975). Effects of focus of attention on the causal attributions of actors and observers. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 11, 427–438. [20] Google Scholar
Armor, D. A. (1998). The illusion of objectivity: A bias in the perception of freedom from bias. Doctoral dissertation, University of California, Los Angeles. [36] Google Scholar
Armor, D. A., & Taylor, S. E. (1998). Situated optimism: Specific outcome expectancies and self-regulation. In Advances in experimental social psychology (Vol. 30, pp. 309- 379), M. P. Zanna (Ed.). New York: Academic Press. [14] Google Scholar
Armor, D. A., & Taylor, S. E. (2000). Mindset, prediction, and performance: Self-regulation in deliberative and implemental frames of mind. Unpublished manuscript, Yale University. [19] Google Scholar
Armstrong, J. S. (Ed.). (2001). Principles of forecasting handbook. Boston: Kluwer. [41] Google Scholar
Aronson, E. (1969). The theory of cognitive dissonance: A current perspective. In Advances in experimental social psychology (Vol. 4, pp. 1–34), L. Berkowitz (Ed.). New York: Academic Press. [36] Google Scholar
Aronson, E., & Carlsmith, J. M. (1962). Performance expectancy as a determinant of actual performance. Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 65, 178–186. [19] Google ScholarPubMed
Aronson, E., & Mills, J. (1959). The effect of severity of initiation on liking for a group. Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 59, 177–181. [Introduction] Google Scholar
Ashby, F. G., Alfonso-Reese, L. A., Turken, A. U., & Waldron, E. M. (1998). A neuro-psychological theory of multiple systems in category learning. Psychological Review, 105, 442–481. [22] Google Scholar
Ashby, F. G., Isen, A. M., & Turken, A. U. (1999). A neuropsychological theory of positive affect and its influence on cognition. Psychological Review, 106, 529–550. [29] Google ScholarPubMed
Ashton, R. H. (1992). Effects of justification and a mechanical aid on judgment performance. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 52, 292–306. [32] Google Scholar
Aspinwall, L. G., Kemeny, M. E., Taylor, S. E., Schneider, S. G., & Dudley, J. P. (1991). Psychological predictors in gay men's AIDS risk-reduction behavior. Health Psychology, 10, 432–444. [19] Google Scholar
Aspinwall, L. G., & Richter, L. (1999). Optimism and self-mastery predict more rapid disengagement from unsolvable tasks in the presence of alternatives. Motivation and Emotion, 23, 221–245. [19] Google Scholar
Astington, J., Harris, P., & Olson, D. (Eds.). (1988). Developing theories of mind. New York: Cambridge University Press. [8] Google Scholar
Atkinson, J. W. (1964). An introduction to motivation. Princeton, NJ: Van Nostrand. [19, 35] Google Scholar
Au, T. K. (1993). Developing an intuitive understanding of conservation and contamination. Developmental Psychology, 29, 286–299. [11] Google Scholar
Ayton, P. (1992). On the competence and incompetence of experts. In Expertise and decision support (pp. 77–105), G. Wright & F. Bolger (Eds.). Plenum Press: New York. [39] Google Scholar
Ayton, P. (1997). How to be incoherent and seductive: Bookmakers' odds and support theory. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 72, 99–115. [27] Google Scholar
Ayton, P. (1998). How bad is human judgment? In Forecasting with judgment, G. Wright & P. Goodwin (Eds.). West Sussex, England: John Wiley & Sons. [2] Google Scholar
Ayton, P., & Hardman, D. (1997). Are two rationalities better than one? Current Psychology of Cognition, 16, 39–51. [24] Google Scholar
Ayton, P., & Onkal, D. (1996). Effects of expertise on forecasts and confidence in forecast. Paper presented at the International Symposium on Forecasting, Istanbul, Turkey. [39] Google Scholar
Baker, L. A., & Emery, R. E. (1993). When every relationship is above average: Perceptions and expectations of divorce at the time of marriage. Law and Human Behavior, 17, 439–450. [19] Google Scholar
Baker, N. (1991). Room temperature. New York: Vintage. [35] Google Scholar
Bandura, A. (1977). Self-efficacy: Toward a unifying theory of behavioral change. Psychological Review, 84, 191–215. [19, 36] Google Scholar
Bandura, A. (1997). Self efficacy: The exercise of control. New York: W. H. Freeman and Company. [19] Google Scholar
Bankhart, C. P., & Elliot, R. (1974). Heart rate and skin conductance in anticipation of shocks with varying probability of occurrence. Psychophysiology, 11, 160–174. [30] Google Scholar
Bar-Hillel, M. (1973). On the subjective probability of compound events. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 9, 396–406. [1] Google Scholar
Bar-Hillel, M. (1980). The base-rate fallacy in probability judgments. Acta Psychologica, 44, 211–233. [24] Google Scholar
Bar-Hillel, M. (1983). The base rate fallacy controversy. In Decision making under uncertainty (pp. 39–61), R. W. Scholz (Ed.). Amsterdam: North-Holland. [13] Google Scholar
Bar-Hillel, M. (1990). Back to base rates. In Insights into decision making: A tribute to Hillel J. Einhorn (pp. 200–216), R. M. Hogarth (Ed.). Chicago: University of Chicago Press. [24] Google Scholar
Bar-Hillel, M., & Fischhoff, B. (1981). When do base-rates affect predictions? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 41, 671–680. [2] Google Scholar
Bar-Hillel, M., & Neter, E. (1993). How alike is it versus how likely is it: A disjunction fallacy in probability judgments. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 65, 1119–1131. [Introduction, 2, 25, 26] Google Scholar
Baranski, J. V., & Petrusic, W. M. (1994). The calibration and resolution of confidence in perceptual judgments. Perception and Psychophysics, 55, 412–428. [39] Google ScholarPubMed
Barefield, R. M., & Comiskey, E. E. (1975). The accuracy of analysts' forecasts of earnings per share. Journal of Business Research, 3, 241–252. [19] Google Scholar
Bargh, J. A. (1982). Attention and automaticity in the processing of self-relevant information. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 43, 425–436. [9] Google Scholar
Bargh, J. A. (1997). The automaticity of everyday life. In The automaticity of everyday life. R. S. Wyer, Jr. (Ed.). In The automaticity of everyday life: Advances in social cognition (Vol. 10, pp. 1–61). R. S. Wyer, Jr. (Ed.). Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum. [Introduction, 2, 30] Google Scholar
Bargh, J. A., Bond, R. N., Lombardi, W. J., & Tota, M. E. (1986). The additive nature of chronic and temporary sources of construct accessibility. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 50 (5), 869–878. [2] Google Scholar
Bargh, J. A., & Chartrand, T. L. (1999). The unbearable automaticity of being. American Psychologist, 54, 462–479. [Introduction] Google Scholar
Baron, J. (1992). The effect of normative beliefs on anticipated emotions. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 63, 320–330. [16] Google ScholarPubMed
Baron, J. (1993). Morality and rational choice. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Kluwer. [24] Google Scholar
Baron, J. (1994a). Nonconsequentialist decisions. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 17, 1–42. [24] Google Scholar
Baron, J. (1994b). Thinking and Deciding, 2nd ed. New York: Cambridge University Press. [6] Google Scholar
Baron, J. (1997). Confusion of relative and absolute risk in valuation. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 14, 301–309. [23] Google Scholar
Baron, J. (1998). Judgment misguided: Intuition and error in public decision making. New York: Oxford University Press. [24,39] Google Scholar
Baron, J., & Brown, R. (Eds.). (1991) Teaching decision making to adolescents. Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum. [41] Google Scholar
Barone, D. F., Maddux, J. E., & Snyder, C. R. (1997). Social cognitive psychology: History and current domains, New York: Plenum Press. [Introduction] Google Scholar
Barrett, S. (1987). Homeopathy: Is it medicine? Skeptical Inquirer, 12, 56–62. [34] Google Scholar
Barron, F. J. (1953). An ego-strength scale which predicts response to psychotherapy. Journal Of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 17, 327–333. [40] Google ScholarPubMed
Barsalou, L. W. (1985). Ideals, central tendency, and frequency of instantiation as determinants of graded structure in categories. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 11, 629–654. [20] Google ScholarPubMed
Barsalou, L. W. (1987). The instability of graded structure: Implications for the nature of concepts. In Concepts reconsidered: The ecological and intellectual bases of categories, U. Neisser (Ed.). New York: Cambridge University Press. [20] Google Scholar
Barth, M. E., Elliot, J. A., & Finn, M. W. (1999). Market rewards associated with patterns of increasing earnings. Journal of Accounting Research, 37, 387–413. [38] Google Scholar
Bartlett, F. C. (1932). Remembering. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [41] Google Scholar
Basil, R. (1989). Graphology and personality, “Let the buyer beware.” Skeptical Inquirer, 13, 241–243. [34] Google Scholar
Bastardi, A., Ross, L., & Lepper, M. R. (1996). False polarization and the gender gap: Actual vs. assumed discrepancies in belief. Unpublished manuscript, Stanford University. [36] Google Scholar
Baumeister, R., Bratslavsky E., Finkenauer, C, & Vohs, K. D. (in press). Bad is stronger than good. (Review of General Psychology.) [11] Google Scholar
Baumeister, R. F, & Leary, M. F. (1995). The need to belong: Desire for interpersonal attachments as a fundamental human motive. Psychological Bulletin, 117, 497–529. [32] Google Scholar
Baumeister, R. F., & Steinhilbm, A. (1984). Paradoxical effects of supportive audiences on performance under pressure: The home field disadvantage in sports championships. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 47, 85–93. [35] Google Scholar
Baumhart, R. (1968). An honest profit. New York: Prentice-Hall. [18] Google Scholar
Bazerman, M. H., & Neale, M. A. (1982). Improving negotiation effectiveness under final offer arbitration: The role ofselection and training. Journal of Applied Psychology, 67, 543–548. [39] Google Scholar
Bazerman, M. H., & Neale, M. A. (1992). Negotiating rationally. New York: John Wiley & Sons. [41] Google Scholar
Beach, L. R. (1990). Image theory: Decision making in personal and organizational contexts. Chichester, England: John Wiley & Sons. Ltd. [30] Google Scholar
Beach, L. R., & Mitchell, T. R. (1987). Image theory: Principles, goals and plans in decision making. Acta Psychologica, 66, 201–220. [30] Google Scholar
Beattie, J., & Baron, J. (1988). Confirmation and matching biases in hypothesis testing. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 40A, 269–297. [6] Google Scholar
Bechera, A., Damasio, H., Tramel, D., & Damasio, A. R. (1997). Deciding advantageously before knowing the advantageous strategy. Science, 275, 1293–1295. [29] Google Scholar
Beck, A. T., Ward, C. H., Mendelson, M., Mock, J. E., & Erbaum, J. K. (1961). An inventory for measuring depression. Archives of General Psychology, 4, 561–571. [14] Google ScholarPubMed
Becker, G. (1996). The economic way of looking at behavior: The Nobel lecture. Stanford, CA: Stanford University, Hoover Institution on War, Revolution, and PeaceGoogle Scholar
Begg, I., Anas, A., & Farinacci, S. (1992). Dissociation of processes in belief: Source recollection, statement familiarity, and the illusion of truth. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 121(4), 446–458. [2] Google Scholar
Begg, I., & Armour, V. (1991). Repetition and the ring of truth: Biasing comments. Canadian Journal of Behavioural Science, 23, 195–213. [2] Google Scholar
Bell, D. E. (1982). Regret in decision making under uncertainty. Operations Research, 30, 961–981. [21] Google Scholar
Bell, D. E. (1983). Risk premiums for decision regret. Management Science, 29, 1156–1166. [21] Google Scholar
Bell, D. E. (1985). Disappointment in decision making under uncertainty. Operations Research, 33, 1–27. [21] Google Scholar
Bellhouse, D. R., & Franklin, J. (1997). The language of chance. International Statistical Review, 65 (1), 73–85. [39] Google Scholar
Bem, D. J. (1967). Self-perception: An alternative interpretation of cognitive dissonance phenomena. Psychological Review, 74, 183–200. [9] Google ScholarPubMed
Bem, D. J. (1972). Self-perception theory. In Advances in experimental social psychology (Vol. 6, pp. 1–62), L. Berkowitz (Ed.). New York: Academic Press. [Introduction, 9, 10, 36] Google Scholar
Benartzi, S., & Thaler, R. H. (2001). Naive diversification strategies in defined contribution saving plans. American Economic Review, 91 (1), 79–98. [30] Google Scholar
Benthin, A., Slovic, P., Moran, P., Severson, H., Mertz, C. K., & Gerrard, M. (1995). Adolescent health-threatening and health-enhancing behaviors: A study of word association and imagery. Journal of Adolescent Health, 17, 143–152. [23] Google ScholarPubMed
Berkeley, D., & Humphreys, P. (1982). Structuring decision problems and the “bias heuristic.” Acta Psychologica, 50, 201–252. [24] Google Scholar
Beyth-Marom, R. (1981). The subjective probability of conjunctions (Decision Research Report No. 81–12). Eugene, OR: Decision Research. [1] Google Scholar
Beyth-Marom, R. (1982). How probable is probable? Numerical translation of verbal probability expressions. Journal of Forecasting, 1, 257–269. [41] Google Scholar
Beyth-Marom, R., Dekel, S. K., Gombo, R., & Shaked, M. (1985). An elementary approach to thinking under uncertainty. Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum [41] Google Scholar
Beyth-Marom, R., Fischhoff, B., Quadrel, M. J., & Furby L. (1991). Teaching adolescents decision making. In Teaching decision making to adolescents (pp. 19–60), J. Baron & R. Brown (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum. [41] Google Scholar
Bierce, A. (1914). The devil's dictionary. New York: World Publishing Company. [14] Google Scholar
Biller, B., Bless, H., & Schwarz, N. (1992, April). Die Leichtigkeit der Erinnerung als Information in der Urteilsbildung: der EinfluBder Fragenreihenfolge (Ease of recall as information: The impact of question order). Tagung experimentell arbeitender Psychologen, Osnabrück, FRG. [5] Google Scholar
Birge, R. T. (1929). Probable Values of the General Physical Constants. Reviews of Modern Physics, 1, 1–73. [37] Google Scholar
Birge, R. T. (1932). The Calculation of Errors by the Method of Least Squares. Physical Review, 40, 207–227. [37] Google Scholar
Birge, R. T. (1941). The General Physical Constants: As of August 1941 with Details on the Velocity of Light Only. Reports on Progress in Physics, 8, 90–134. [37] Google Scholar
Birnbaum, M. H. (1983). Base rates in Bayesian inference: Signal detection analysis of the cab problem. American Journal of Psychology, 96, 85–94. [24] Google Scholar
Birnbaum, M. H. (1999). How to show that 9 221: Collect judgments in a between-subjects design. Psychological Methods, 4 (3), 243–249. [2] Google Scholar
Birnbaum, M. H., & Mellers, B. A. (1983). Bayesian inference: Combining base rates with opinions of sources who vary in credibility. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 45, 792–804. [2] Google Scholar
Biswas, A., & Burton, S. (1993). Consumer perceptions of tensile price claims in advertisements: An assessment of claim types across different discount levels. Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, 21, 217–229. [6] Google Scholar
Bjorkman, M. (1994). Internal cue theory: Calibration and resolution of confidence in general knowledge. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 58, 386–405. [39] Google Scholar
Bjorkman, M., Juslin, P., & Winman, A. (1993). Realism of confidence in sensory discrimination: The underconfidence phenomenon. Perception and Psychophysics, 54, 75–81. [39] Google ScholarPubMed
Blalock, S. J., DeVellis, B. M., & Afifi, R. A. (1990). Risk perceptions and participation in colorectal cancer screening. Health Psychology, 9, 792–806. [17] Google ScholarPubMed
Blaney, P. H. (1986). Affect and memory: A review. Psychological Bulletin, 99, 229–246. [29] Google ScholarPubMed
Bless, H. (1997). Stimmung und Denken. (Mood and reasoning.) Bern, Switzerland: Huber. [29] Google Scholar
Bless, H. (2001). The consequences of mood on the processing of social information. In Blackwell handbook of social psychology: Intraindividual processes (pp. 391–421), A. Tesser & N. Schwarz (Eds.). Oxford, U.K.: Blackwell. [29] Google Scholar
Bless, H., Bohner, G., Schwarz, N., & Strack, F. (1990). Mood and persuasion: A cognitive response analysis. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 16, 331–345. [29] Google Scholar
Bless, H., Clore, G. L., Schwarz, N., Golisano, V, Rabe, C, & Wolk, M. (1996). Mood and the use of scripts: Does a happy mood really lead to mindlessness? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 71, 665–679. [2, 29] Google ScholarPubMed
Bless, H., & Schwarz, N. (1999). Sufficient and necessary conditions in dual process models: The case of mood and information processing. In Dual process theories in social psychology (pp. 423–440), S. Chaiken & Y. Trope (Eds.). New York: Guilford. [29] Google Scholar
Bless, H., Schwarz, N., & Kemmelmeier, M. (1996). Mood and stereotyping: The impact of moods on the use of general knowledge structures. In M. Hewstone & W. Stroebe (Eds.). European Review of Social Psychology, 7, 63–93. [29] Google Scholar
Bless, H., Schwarz, N., & Wieland, R. (1996). Mood and stereotyping: The impact of category membership and individuating information. European Journal of Social Psychology, 26, 935–959. [29] Google Scholar
Block, R. A., & Harper, D. R. (1991). Overconfidence in estimation: Testing the anchoring-and-adjustment hypothesis. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 49, 188–207. [6] Google Scholar
Bobbio, M., Deorsola, A., Pistis, G., Brusca, A., & Diamond, G. A. (1988). Physician perception of exercise electrocardiography as a prognostic test after acute myocardial infarction. American Journal of Cardiology, 62, 675–678. [39] Google ScholarPubMed
Bobbio, M., Detrano, R., Shandling, A. H., Ellestad, M. H., Clark, J., Brezden, O., Abecia, A., & Martinezcaro, D. (1992). Clinical assessment of the probability of coronary-artery disease - Judgmental bias from personal knowledge. Medical Decision Making, 12, 197–203. [39] Google ScholarPubMed
Bodenhausen, G. V. (1990). Stereotypes as judgmental heuristics: Evidence of circadian variations in discrimination. Psychological Science, 1 (5), 319–322. [Introduction, 2] Google Scholar
Bodenhausen, G. V., Gabriel, S., & Lineberger, M. (1999). Sadness and susceptibility to judgmental bias: The case of anchoring. Unpublished manuscript, Northwestern University. [29] Google Scholar
Bodenhausen, G. V., Kramer, G. P, & Süsser, K. (1994). Happiness and stereotypic thinking in social judgment. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 66, 621–632. [29] Google Scholar
Bodenhausen, G. V., & Wyer, R. S. (1987). Social cognition and social reality: Information acquisition and use in the laboratory and the real world. In Social information processing and survey methodology (pp. 6–41), H. J. Hippler, N. Schwarz, & S. Sudman (Eds.). New York: Springer Verlag. [5] Google Scholar
Bollnow, O. F. (1956). Das Wesen der Stimmungen. (The nature of moods.) Frankfurt: Klostermann. [29] Google Scholar
Bond, M. H., & Cheung, T. S. (1983). The spontaneous self-concept of college students in Hong Kong, Japan, and the United States. Journal of Cross-Cultural Psychology, 14, 153–171. [15] Google Scholar
Boneau, C. A. (1990). Short-term recognition memory under rehearsal instructions and imaging instructions. Bulletin of the Psychonomic Society, 28, 297–299. [17] Google Scholar
Borg, I. (1987). The effect of mood on different well-being judgments. Archiv fur Psychologie, 139, 181–188. [29] Google ScholarPubMed
Borgida, E., & Nisbett, R. E. (1977). The differential impact of abstract vs. concrete information on decisions. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 7, 258–271. [28] Google Scholar
Bornstein, R. F. (1989). Exposure and affect: Overview and meta-analysis of research, 1968–1987. Psychological Bulletin, 106, 265–289. [23] Google Scholar
Bostrom, A., Fischhoff, B., & Morgan, G. M. (1992). Characterizing mental models of hazardous processes: A methodology with an application to radon. Journal of Social Issues, 48, 85–100 [41] Google Scholar
Bower, G. H. (1981). Mood and memory. American Psychologist, 36, 129–148. [29] Google Scholar
Bower, G. H., & Mayer, J. D. (1985). Failure to replicate mood congruent retrieval. Bulletin of the Psychonomic Society, 23, 39–42. [29] Google Scholar
Brainard, R. W., Irby, T. S., Fitts, P. M., & Alluisi, E. (1962). Some variables influencing the rate of gain of information. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 63, 105–110. [12] Google Scholar
Braine, M. D. S. (1990). The “natural logic” approach to reasoning. In Reasoning, necessity, and logic: Developmental Perspectives (pp. 133–157), W. F. Overton (Ed.). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. [22] Google Scholar
Brake, G. L., Doherty, M. E., & Kleiter, G. D. (1997). A Brunswikian approach to calibration of subjective probabilities. Unpublished manuscript, Bowling Green State University. [39] Google Scholar
Brase, G. L., Cosmides, L., & Tooby, J. (1998). Individuation, counting, and statistical inference: The role of frequency and whole-object representations in judgment under uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 127, 3–21. [24] Google Scholar
Braun, P. A., & Yaniv, I. (1992). A case study of expert judgment: Economists probabilities versus base-rate model forecasts. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 5, 217–231. [39] Google Scholar
Brehm, J. W. (1966). A theory of psychological reactance. New York: Academic Press. [36] Google Scholar
Brehm, J. W., & Cohen, A. R. (1962). Explorations in cognitive dissonance. New York: Wiley. [36] Google Scholar
Brehm, S. S., & Brehm, J. W. (1981). Psychological reactance: Atheory of freedom and control. New York: Academic Press. [36] Google Scholar
Breiman, L., Friedman, J. H., Olshen, R. A., & Stone, C. J. (1984). Classification and regression trees. Belmont, CA: Wadsworth International Group. [31] Google Scholar
Brenner, L. (2000). Should observed overconfidence be dismissed as a statistical artifact? Critique of Erev, Wallsten, and Budescu (1994). Psychological Review, 107, 943–946. [27, 39] Google Scholar
Brenner, L. A. (1995). A stochastic model of the calibration of subjective probabilities. Unpublished Doctoral dissertation, Stanford University. [27, 39] Google Scholar
Brenner, L., & Koehler, D. J. (1999). Subjective probability of disjunctive hypotheses: Local-weight models for decomposition of evidential support. Cognitive Psychology, 38, 16–47. [27] Google Scholar
Brenner, L. A., Koehler, D. J., Liberman, V., & Tversky, A. (1996). Overconfidence in probability and frequency judgments: A critical examination. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 65, 212–219. [Introduction, 39] Google Scholar
Brenner, L., & Rottenstreich, Y. (1999). Focus, repacking, and the judgment of grouped hypotheses. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 12, 141–148. [27] Google Scholar
Brenner, L., & Rottenstreich, Y. (2000). Asymmetric support theory: Focus-dependence and context independence in likelihood judgment. Unpublished manuscript. [27] Google Scholar
Brewer, M. B. (1988). A dual process model of impression formation. In Advances in social cognition (Vol. 1, pp. 1–36), T. K. Srull & R. S. Wyer (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [29] Google Scholar
Brickman, P., Coates, D., Janoff-Bulman, R. J. (1978). Lottery winners and accident victims: Is happiness relative? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 36, 917- 927. [16] Google Scholar
Brier, G. W. (1950). Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability. Monthly Weather Review, 78 (1), 1–3. [15] Google Scholar
Briggs, L. K., & Krantz, D. H. (1992). Judging the strength of designated evidence. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 5, 77–106. [25, 26, 27] Google Scholar
Brockner, J., Rubin, J. Z., & Lang, E. (1981). Face-saving and entrapment. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 17, 68–79. [32] Google Scholar
Brody, N. (1997). Intelligence, schooling, and society. American Psychologist, 52, 1046- 1050. [24] Google Scholar
Brooks, L. R. (1978). Nonanalytic concept formation and memory for instances. In Cognition and categorization (pp. 169–215), E. Rosch & B. B. Lloyd (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. [20] Google Scholar
Brooks, L. R. (1987). Decentralized control of categorization: The role of prior processing episodes. In Concepts reconsidered: The ecological and intellectual bases of categories U. Neisser (Ed.). New York: Cambridge University Press. [20] Google Scholar
Brooks, L. R., Norman, G. R., & Allen, S. W. (1991). Role of specific similarity in a medical diagnostic task. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 120, 278–287. [22] Google Scholar
Broome, J. (1990). Should a rational agent maximize expected utility? In The limits of rationality (pp. 132–145), K. S. Cook & M. Levi (Eds.). Chicago: University of Chicago Press. [24] Google Scholar
Brown & Williamson Tobacco Company (1999). [23] Google Scholar
Brown, P., Foster, G., & Noreen, E. (1985). Security analyst multi-year earnings forecasts and the capital market. Sarasota: American Accounting Association. [38] Google Scholar
Browne, T. (1642/1963). Riligio. Medici. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [16] Google Scholar
Bruner, J. (1986). Actual minds, possible worlds. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. [24] Google Scholar
Bruner, J. (1990). Acts of meaning. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. [24] Google Scholar
Bruner, J. S. (1957). Going beyond the information given. In Contemporary approaches to cognition (pp. 41–69), H. Gruber, K. R. Hammond, & R. Jesser (Eds.). Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. [36] Google Scholar
Bruner, J. S. (1966). On the conservation of liquids. In Studies in cognitive growth, J. S. Bruner, R. R. Olver, & P. M. Greenfield, et al. (Eds.), New York: Wiley. [1] Google Scholar
Brunswik, E. (1943). Organismic achievement and environmental probability. Psychological Review, 50, 255–272. [2, 39] Google Scholar
Brunswik, E. (1955). Representative design and probabilistic theory in a functional psychology. Psychological Review, 2, 193–217. [Introduction, 39] Google Scholar
Brunswik, E. (1964). Scope and aspects of the cognitive problem. In Contemporary approaches to cognition (pp. 5–31), J. S. Bruner et al. (Eds.). Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. [31] Google Scholar
Buckley, T., & Sniezek, J. (1992). Passion, preference, and predictability in judgmental forecasting. Psychological Reports, 70, 1022. [19] Google Scholar
Budescu, D. V., Erev, I., & Wallsten, T. S. (1997). On the importance of random error in the study of probability judgment. Part I: New theoretical developments. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 10, 157–171. [39] Google Scholar
Budescu, D. V., Wallsten, T. S., & Au, W. T. (1997). On the importance of random error in the study of probability judgment. Part II: Applying the stochastic judgment model to detect systematic trends. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 10, 173–188. [39] Google Scholar
Buehler, R., & Griffin, D. (1996, August). Getting things done: The impact of predictions on task completion. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Psychological Association, Toronto, Canada. [14, 19] Google Scholar
Buehler, R., & Griffin, D. (2000a). Dispositional, contextual, and cognitive underpinnings of the planning fallacy. Unpublished manuscript, Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, Ontario. [14] Google Scholar
Buehler, R., & Griffin, D. (2000b). Motivated prediction for self and others. Unpublished manuscript, Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, Ontario. [14] Google Scholar
Buehler, R., Griffin, D., & MacDonald, H. (1997). The role of motivated reasoning in optimistic time predictions. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 23, 238–247. [14, 19] Google Scholar
Buehler, R., Griffin, D., Otsubo, Y., Lehman, D., & Heine, S. (2000). A cross-cultural comparison of the planning fallacy. Unpublished manuscript, Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, Ontario. [14] Google Scholar
Buehler, R., & McFarland, C. (in press). Intensity bias in affective forecasts: The role of temporal focus. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin. [14] Google Scholar
Buehler, R., Griffin, D., & Ross, M. (1994). Exploring the “planning fallacy”: Why people underestimate their task completion times. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 67, 366–381. [14, 19, 36] Google Scholar
Buehler, R., Griffin, D., & Ross, M. (1995). It's about time: Optimistic predictions in work and love. In European Review of Social Psychology (Vol.6, pp. 1–32), W. Stroebe & M. Hewstone (Eds.). Chichester, U.K.: John Wiley & Sons. [14] Google Scholar
Bunker, J. P., Barnes, B. A., & Mosteller, F. (Eds.). (1977). Costs, risks, and benefits of surgery. New York: Oxford University Press. [41] Google Scholar
Bunn, D. W., & Salo, A. A. (1993). Forecasting with scenarios. European Journal of Operational Research, 68, 291–303. [14] Google Scholar
Burgstahler, D., & Dichev, I. (1997). Earnings management to avoid earnings decreases and losses. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 24, 99–126. [38] Google Scholar
Burros, O. K. (1978). Mental measurement yearbook, 8th ed. Highland Park, NJ: Gryphon Press. [34] Google Scholar
Busemeyer, J., Hastie, R., & Medin, D. L. (Eds.) (1995). Decision making from a cognitive perspective, San Diego: Academic Press. [23] Google Scholar
Busemeyer, J. R., & Goldstein, W. M. (1992). Linking together different measures of preference: a dynamic model of matching derived from decision field theory. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 52, 370–396. [6] Google Scholar
Busemeyer, J. R., & Townsend, J. T. (1993). Decisionfield theory: Adynamic - cognitive approachto decision making inan uncertain environment. Psychological Review, 100, 432–459. [6] Google Scholar
Byram, S. J. (1997). Cognitive and motivational factors influencing time prediction. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 3, 216–219. [14] Google Scholar
Byrne, J. A. (1986). Business fads: What's in - and out: Executives latch on to any management idea that looks like a quick fix. Business Week, January 20, 52–61. [41] Google Scholar
Byrnes, J. P., & Overton, W. F. (1986). Reasoning about certainty and uncertainty in concrete, causal, and propositional contexts. Developmental Psychology, 22, 793–799. [24] Google Scholar
Cacciari, C., & Tabossi, P. (Eds.) (1993). Idioms. Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [8] Google Scholar
Cacioppo, J. T., Priester, J. R., & Berntson, G. G. (1993). Rudimentary determinants of attitudes. II. Arm flexion and extension have differential effects on attitudes. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 65, 5–17. [2, 7, 29] Google Scholar
Cadsby, T. (2000). The ten biggest investment mistakes Canadians make and how to avoid them. Toronto: Stoddart. [39] Google Scholar
Calderon, T. G. (1993). Predictive properties of analysts' forecasts of corporate earnings. The Mid-Atlantic Journal of Business, 29, 41–58. [19] Google Scholar
Camerer, C. (1981). General conditions for the success of bootstrapping models. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 27, 411–422. [41] Google Scholar
Camerer, C. (1990). Do markets correct biases in probability judgment? Evidence from market experiments. In Advances in behavioral economics (Vol. 2, pp. 125–172), L. Green & J. H. Kagel (Eds.). Northwood, NJ: Ablex. [13] Google Scholar
Camerer, C., & Hogarth, R. (1999). The effects of financial incentives in experiments: A review and capital-labor production framework. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 19, 7–42. [Introduction] Google Scholar
Camerer, C., & Lovallo, D. (1999). Overconfidence and excess entry: An experimental approach. The American Economic Review, 89, 306–318. [19] Google Scholar
Campbell, J. D., & Fairey, P. J. (1985). Effects of self-esteem, hypothetical explanations, and verbalization of expectancies on future performance. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 48, 1097–1111. [19] Google Scholar
Campbell, J. I. D. (1987). The role of associative interference in learning and retrieving arithmetic facts. In Cognitive processes in mathematics, J. A. Sloboda & D. Rogers (Eds.). Oxford: Oxford University Press. [22] Google Scholar
Canadian Standards Association. (1997). Risk management (CSA-850). Ottawa. [41] Google Scholar
Capute, A. J., Neidermeyer, E. F. L., & Richardson, F. (1968). Electroencephalogram in children with minimal cerebral dysfunction. Pediatrics, 41, 1104–1114. [40] Google Scholar
Carey, S. (1985). Conceptual change in childhood. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. [22] Google Scholar
Carleton, W. T., Chen, C. R., & Steiner, T. L. (1998). Optimism biases among brokerage and nonbrokerage equity recommendations: Agency costs in the investment industry. Financial Management, 27, 17–30. [38] Google Scholar
Carlson, B. W. (1990). Anchoring and adjustment in judgments under risk. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 16, 665–676. [6, 7] Google Scholar
Carlson, S. (1985). A double-blind test of astrology. Nature, 318, 419–425. [34] Google Scholar
Carpenter, P. A., & Just, M. A. (1975). Sentence comprehension: A psycholoinguistic processing model of verification. Psychological Review, 82, 45–73. [9] Google Scholar
Carroll, J. B. (1993). Human cognitive abilities: A survey of factor-analytic studies. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [24] Google Scholar
Carroll, J. B. (1997). Psychometrics, intelligence, and public perception. Intelligence, 24, 25–52. [24] Google Scholar
Carroll, J. S. (1978). The effect of imagining an event on expectations for the event: An interpretation in terms of the availability heuristic. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 14, 88–96. [4, 17, 21] Google Scholar
Carroll, J. S., Wiener, R. L., Coates, D., Galegher, J., & Alibrio, J. J. (1982). Evaluation, diagnosis, and prediction in parole decision making. Law and Society Review, 17, 199–228. [40] Google Scholar
Carson, T. P., & Adams, H. E. (1980). Acticity valence as a function of mood change. Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 89, 368–377. [29] Google Scholar
Carver, C. S., & Scheier, M. F. (1981). Attention and self-regulation: A control-theory approach to human behavior. New York: Springer Verlag. [19] Google Scholar
Carver, C. S., & Scheier, M. F. (1998). On the self-regulation of behavior. New York: Cambridge University Press. [19] Google Scholar
Casman, E., Fischhoff, B., Palmgren, C., Small, M., & Wu, F. (2000). Integrated assessment of Cryptosporidium risks. Risk Analysis, 20, 493–509. [41] Google Scholar
Casscells, W., Schoenberger, A., & Graboys, T. (1978). Interpretation by physicians of clinical laboratory results. New England Journal of Medicine, 299, 999–1001. [24] Google Scholar
Caverni, J.-P., & Pris, J. L. (1990). The anchoring-adjustment heuristic in an “information rich, real world setting”: Knowledge assessment by experts. In Cognitive biases, J.-P. Caverni, J.-M. Fabre, & M. Gonzalez (Eds.). New York: North-Holland. [6] Google Scholar
Centor, R. M., Dalton, H. P., & Yates, J. F. (1984). Are physicians' probability estimates better or worse than regression model estimates? Paper presented at the Sixth Annual Meeting of the Society for Medical Decision Making, Bethesda, MD. [39] Google Scholar
Cervone, D., & Peake, P. K. (1986). Anchoring, efficacy, and action: the influence of judgmental heuristics on self-efficacy judgments and behavior. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 50, 492–501. [6, 7] Google Scholar
Chafe, W. L. (1976). Givenness, contrastiveness, definiteness, subjects, topics, andpoint of view. In Subject and topic, C. N. Li (Ed.). New York: Academic Press. [8] Google Scholar
Chaiken, S. (1980). Heuristic versus systematic information processing and the use of source versus message cuesinpersuasion. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 39, 752–766. [32] Google Scholar
Chaiken, S. (1987). The heuristic model of persuasion. In Social influence: the Ontario symposium (Vol. 5, pp. 3–39), M. P. Zanna, J. M. Olson, & C. P. Herman (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [9] Google Scholar
Chaiken, S., Liberman, A., & Eagly, A. H. (1989). Heuristic and systematic processing within and beyond the persuasion context. In Unintended thought (pp. 212–252), J. S. Uleman & J. A. Bargh (Eds.). New York: Guilford Press. [Introduction, 22] Google Scholar
Chaiken, S., & Trope, Y. (1999). Dual-process theories in social psychology. New York: Guilford Press. [2, 5, 22, 23] Google Scholar
Chapman, G. B., & Bornstein, B. H. (1996). The more you ask for the more you get: Anchoring in personal injury verdicts. Applied Cognitive Psychology, 10, 519–540. [6] Google Scholar
Chapman, G. B., & Johnson, E. J. (1994). The limits of anchoring. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 7, 223–242. [6, 7] Google Scholar
Chapman, G. B., & Johnson, E. J. (1999). Anchoring, activation and the construction of value. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 79, 115–153. [6] Google Scholar
Chapman, L. J., & Chapman, J. P. (1967). Genesis of popular but erroneous psychodi-agnostic observations. Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 72, 193–204. [1, 40] Google Scholar
Chapman, L. J., & Chapman, J. P. (1969). Illusory correlation as an obstacle to the use of valid psychodiagnostic signs. Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 74, 271–280. [40] Google Scholar
Chase, W. G., & Simon, H. A. (1973). Perceptioninchess. Cognitive Psychology, 4, 55–81. [39] Google Scholar
Cheng, P. W., & Holyoak, K. J. (1985). Pragmatic reasoning schemas. Cognitive Psychology, 17, 391–416. [22] Google Scholar
Cheng, P. W., & Holyoak, K. J. (1989). On the natural selection of reasoning theories. Cognition, 33, 285–313. [24] Google Scholar
Cherniak, C. (1986). Minimal rationality. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. [24] Google Scholar
Christensen-Szalanski, J. J. J., & Beach, L. R. (1982). Experience and the base-rate fallacy. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 29, 270–278. [39] Google Scholar
Christensen-Szalanski, J. J. J., & Bushyhead, J. B. (1981). Physicians' use of probabilistic information in a real clinical setting. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 7, 928–935. [39] Google Scholar
Christensen-Szalanski, J. J. J., & Willham, C. F. (1991). The hindsight bias: A metaanal-ysis. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 48, 147–173. [41] Google Scholar
Chwe, M. (1998). Culture, circles, and commercials: Publicity, common knowledge, and social coordination. Rationality & Society, 10, 47–75. [8] Google Scholar
Cialdini, R. B., Levy, A., Herman, C. P., Kozlowski, I. T., & Petty, R. E. (1976). Elastic shifts of opinion: Determinants of direction and durability. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 34, 663–672. [32] Google Scholar
Clark, D. M., & Teasdale, J. D. (1982). Diurnal variation in clinical depression and accessibility of memories of positive and negative experiences. Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 91, 87–95. [29] Google Scholar
Clark, H. H. (1979). Responding to indirect speech acts. Cognitive Psychology, 11, 430- 474. [20] Google Scholar
Clark, H. H. (1996). Using language. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [8] Google Scholar
Clark, H. H., & Carlson, T. B. (1981). Context for comprehension. In Attention and Performance IX (pp. 313–330), J. Long & A. Baddeley (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [8] Google Scholar
Clark, H. H., & Chase, W. G. (1972). On the process of comparing sentences against pictures. Cognitive Psychology, 3, 472–517. [9] Google Scholar
Clark, H. H., & Chase, W. G. (1974). Perceptual coding strategies in the formation and verification of descriptions. Memory and Cognition, 2, 101–111. [9] Google Scholar
Clark, H. H., & Haviland, S. E. (1977). Comprehension and the given new contract. In Discourse production and comprehension (pp. 1–40), R. O. Freedle (Ed.). Norwood, NJ: Ablex. [20] Google Scholar
Clark, H. H., & Marshall, C. R. (1981). Definite reference and mutual knowledge. In Elements of discourse understanding (pp. 10–63), A. H. Joshe, B. Webber, & I. A. Sag (Eds.). Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [8] Google Scholar
Clayman, M. R., & Schwartz, R. A. (1994). Falling in love again: Analysts' estimates and reality. Financial Analysts Journal, 50, 66–68. [38] Google Scholar
Clemen, R. (1991). Making hard decisions. Boston: PWS-Kent. [41] Google Scholar
Clore, G. L. (1992). Cognitive phenomenology: Feelings and the construction of judgment. In The construction of social judgments (pp. 133–163), L. L. Martin & A. Tesser (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [5] Google Scholar
Clore, G. L., & Byrne, D. (1974). A reinforcement affect model of attraction. In Foundations of interpersonal attraction (pp. 173–170), T. L. Huston (Ed.). New York: Academic Press. [29] Google Scholar
Clore, G. L., Schwarz, N., & Conway, M. (1994). Affective causes and consequences of social information processing. In Handbook of social cognition (2nd ed.; Vol. 1, pp. 323–418), R. S. Wyer & T. K. Srull (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. [29] Google Scholar
Cohen, B., & Lee, I. S. (1979). A catalog of risks. Health Physics, 36, 707–722. [41] Google Scholar
Cohen, E. R., Crowe, K. M., & Dumond, J. W. M. (1957). Fundamental constants of Physics. New York: Interscience. [37] Google Scholar
Cohen, E. R., & Dumond, J. W. M. (1965). Our knowledge of the fundamental constants of physics and chemistry in 1965. Review of Modern Physics, 37, 537–594. [37] Google Scholar
Cohen, E. R., Dumond, J. W. M., Layton, T. W., & Rollett, J. S. (1955). Analysis of variance of the 1952 data on the atomic constants and a new adjustment, 1955. Review of Modern Physics, 27, 363–380. [37] Google Scholar
Cohen, E. R., & Taylor, B. N. (1973). The 1973 Least-Squares adjustment of the fundamental constants. Journal of Physical and Chemical Reference Data, 2 (4), 663–734. [37] Google Scholar
Cohen, J. (1969). Statistical power analysis for the behavioral sciences. San Diego: Academic Press. [2] Google Scholar
Cohen, J. (1992). A power primer. Psychological Bulletin, 112 (1), 155–159. [2] Google Scholar
Cohen, J., & Hansel, C. M. (1957). The nature of decision in gambling: Equivalence of single and compound subjective probabilities. Acta Psychologica, 13, 357–370. [1] Google Scholar
Cohen, L. J. (1977). The probable and the provable. Oxford, U.K.: Clarendon Press. [1] Google Scholar
Cohen, L. J. (1979). On the psychology of prediction: Whose is the fallacy? Cognition, 7, 385–407. [24, 28] Google Scholar
Cohen, L. J. (1981). Can human irrationality be experimentally demonstrated? Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 4, 317–370. [Introduction, 24, 28] Google Scholar
Cohen, L. J. (1982). Are people programmed to commit fallacies? Further thoughts about the interpretation of experimental data on probability judgment. Journal for the Theory of Social Behavior, 12, 251–274. [24] Google Scholar
Cohen, L. J. (1983). The controversy about irrationality. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 6, 510–517. [24] Google Scholar
Cohen, L. J. (1986). The dialogue of reason. Oxford, U.K.: Oxford University Press. [24] Google Scholar
Coleman, J. S. (1990). Foundations of Social Theory. Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press. College Board (1976–1977). Student descriptive questionnaire. Princeton, NJ: Educational Testing Service. [18] Google Scholar
Collins, R. L., Taylor, S. E., & Skokan, L. A. (1990). A better world or a shattered vision? Changes in life perspectives following victimization. Social Cognition, 8, 263–285. [16] Google Scholar
Combs, B., & Slovic, P. (1979). Newspaper coverage of causes of death. Journalism Quarterly, 56, 832–849. [41] Google Scholar
Conway, M., & Ross, M. (1984). Getting what you want by revising what you had. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 47, 738–748. [19] Google Scholar
Cooke, R. M. (1991). Experts in Uncertainty. New York: Oxford University Press. Cooley, C. H. (1902). Human nature and the social order. New York: Scribner's. [36] Google Scholar
Cooper, A., Woo, C., & Dunkelberg, W. (1988). Entrepreneurs' perceived chances for success. Journal of Business Venturing, 3, 97–108. [13, 39] Google Scholar
Cooper, A. C., & Artz, K. W. (1995). Determinants of satisfaction for entrepreneurs. Journal of Business Venturing, 10, 439–457. [19] Google Scholar
Cooper, R., DeJong, D., Forsythe, B., & Ross, T. (1992). Forward induction in coordination games. Economics Letters, 40, 167–172. [8] Google Scholar
Cooper, R., DeJong, D., Forsythe, B., & Ross, T. (1994). Alternative institutions for resolving coordination problems: Experimental evidence on forward induction and preplay communication. In Problems of coordination in economic activity (pp. 129–146), J. Friedman (Ed.). Norwell, MA: Kluwer. [8] Google Scholar
Corneille, O., Leyens, J., Yzerbyt, V. T., & Walter, E. (1999). Judgeability concerns: The interplay of information, applicability, and accountability in the overattribution bias. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 76, 377–387. [32] Google Scholar
Cosmides, L. (1989). The logic of social exchange: Has natural selection shaped how humans reason? Studies with the Wason selection task. Cognition, 31, 187–276. [24] Google Scholar
Cosmides, L., & Tooby, J. (1994). Beyond intuition and instinct blindness: Toward an evolutionarily rigorous cognitive science. Cognition, 50, 41–77. [24] Google Scholar
Cosmides, L., & Tooby, J. (1996). Are humans good intuitive statisticians after all? Rethinking some conclusions from the literature on judgment and uncertainty. Cognition, 58 (1), 1–73. [Introduction, 2, 14, 24] Google Scholar
Cowley, G., King, P., Hager, M., & Rosenberg, D. (1995, June 26). Going mainstream. Newsweek, 56–57. [34] Google Scholar
Crocker, J. (1982). Biased questions in judgment of covariation studies. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 8, 214–220. [7] Google Scholar
Crosby, F. (1976). A model of egoistical relative deprivation. Psychological Review, 83, 85–113. [35] Google Scholar
Crosby, F. J., & Cordova, D. I. (1996). Words of wisdom: Toward an understanding of affirmative action. Journal of Social Issues, 52, 33–49. [10] Google Scholar
Cross, H., Holcomb, A., & Matter, C. G. (1967). Imprinting or exposure learning in rats given early auditory stimulation. Psychonomic Science, 7, 233–234. [30] Google Scholar
Cross, P. (1977). Not can but will college teaching be improved. New Directions for Higher Education, 17, 1–15. [18] Google Scholar
Cummings, K. M., Becker, M. H., & Maile, M. C. (1980). Bringing the models together: An empirical approach to combining variables used to explain health actions. Journal of Behavioral Medicine, 3,123–145. [17] Google Scholar
Cummins, D. D. (1996). Evidence for the innateness of deontic reasoning. Mind & Language, 11, 160–190. [24] Google Scholar
Curley S. P., Yates, J. F., & Abrams, R. A. (1986). Psychological sources of ambiguity avoidance. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 38, 230–256Google Scholar
Cvetkovich, G. (1978). Cognitive accommodation, language, and social responsibility. Social Psychology, 2, 149–155. [32] Google Scholar
Czaczkes, B., & Ganzach, Y. (1996). The natural selection of prediction heuristics: anchoring and adjustment. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 9, 125–139. [6] Google Scholar
Czerlinski, J. (1997). Algorithm calculation costs measured by EIPs. Manuscript, Max Planck Institute for Psychological Research, Munich. [31] Google Scholar
Damasio, A. R. (1994). Descarte's error: Emotion, reason and the human brain. New York: Grosset/Putnam [23, 29] Google Scholar
Damasio, A. R., Tranel, D., & Damasio, H. C. (1990). Individuals with sociopathic behavior caused by frontal damage fail to respond autonomically to social stimuli. Behavioural Brain Research, 41, 81–94. [23] Google Scholar
David, F. N. (1949). Probability theory for statistical methods. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [33] Google Scholar
Davidson, W. P. (1983). The third person effect in communication. Public Opinion Quarterly, 47, 1–15. [36] Google Scholar
Davies, T. (Ed.), (1996). Comparing environmental risks. Washington, DC: Resources for the Future. [41] Google Scholar
Davis, H. L., Hoch, S. J., & Ragsdale, E. E. (1986). An anchoring and adjustment model of spousal predictions. Journal of Consumer Research, 13, 25–37. [6] Google Scholar
Davis, J. A. (1966). The campus as a frog pond: An application of the theory of relative deprivation to career decisions of college men. American Journal of Sociology, 72, 17–31. [20] Google Scholar
Dawes, R. (1998). Judgment and choice. In Handbook of social psychology, D. Gilbert, S. Fiske, & G. Lindzey (Eds.) (pp. 497–548). New York: McGraw Hill. [42] Google Scholar
Dawes, R. M. (1971). A case study of graduate admissions: Application of three principles of human decision making. American Psychologist, 26, 180–188. [40] Google Scholar
Dawes, R. M. (1979). The robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making. American Psychologist, 34, 571–582. [13,31,40] Google Scholar
Dawes, R. M. (1980). You can't systemize human judgment: Dyslexia. New Directions for Methodology of Social and Behavioral Science, 4, 67–78. [28] Google Scholar
Dawes, R. M. (1988). Rational choice in an uncertain world, New York: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich. [Introduction, 13,14] Google Scholar
Dawes, R. M. (1989). Statistical criteria for establishing a truly false consensus effect. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 25, 1–17. [24] Google Scholar
Dawes, R. M. (1990). The potential nonfalsity of the false consensus effect. In Insights into decision making (pp. 179–199), R. M. Hogarth (Ed.). Chicago: University of Chicago Press. [24] Google Scholar
Dawes, R. M. (1993). Equating the inverse probabilities in implicit personality judgments. Psychological Science, 6, 396–400. [41] Google Scholar
Dawes, R. M. (1994). House of cards: Psychology and psychotherapy built on myth. New York: Free Press. [34] Google Scholar
Dawes, R. M., & Corrigan, B. (1974). Linear models in decision making. Psychological Bulletin, 81, 95–106. [31,40,41] Google Scholar
Dawes, R. M., Faust, D., & Meehl, P. E. (1989). Clinical versus actuarial judgment. Science, 243, 1668–1674. [13] Google Scholar
Dawson, S. (1993). Decision-making and leadership: Heller, F Journal of Management Studies, 30 (3), 479–481. [39] Google Scholar
De Bondt, W. F M., & Thaler, R. H. (1985). Does the stock market overreact? Journal of Finance, 40, 793–805. [38] Google Scholar
De Bondt, W. F M., & Thaler, R. H. (1987). Further evidence on investor overreaction and stock market seasonality. Journal of Finance, 42, 557–581. [38] Google Scholar
de Finetti, B. (1970). Theory of probability (Vol. 1). New York: John Wiley and Sons (republished 1990). [Introduction, 24] Google Scholar
Dean, G. (1987). Does astrology need to be true? Part II: The answer is no. Skeptical Inquirer, Spring, 257–273. [34] Google Scholar
Degeorge, F., Patel, J., & Zeckhauser, R. (1999). Earnings management to exceed thresholds. Journal of Business, 72, 1–33. [38] Google Scholar
DeKay M. L., & McClelland, G. H. (1995). Probability and utility components of endangered species preservation programs. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 2, 60–83. [2] Google Scholar
Dellarosa, D., & Bourne, L. E. (1984). Decisions and memory: Differential retrievabil-ity of consistent and contradictory evidence. Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior, 23, 669–682. [6] Google Scholar
DeMarco, T. (1982). Controlling software projects: Management, measurement, and estimation. New York: Yourdon. [14] Google Scholar
Dempster, A. P. (1967). Upper and lower probabilities induced by a multivalued mapping. Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 38, 325–339. [1, 25] Google Scholar
Denes-Raj, V., & Epstein, S. (1994). Conflict between intuitive and rational processing: When people behave against their better judgment. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 66, 819–829. [23] Google Scholar
Dennett, D. C. (1981). Brainstorms: Philosophical essays on mind and psychology. Cambridge, MA: Bradford/MIT Press. [16, 28] Google Scholar
Dennett, D. C. (1981). Three kinds of intentional psychology. In Reduction, time and reality, R. Healey (Ed.). Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [28] Google Scholar
Dennett, D. C. (1983). True believers: The intentional strategy and why it works. Unpublished manuscript, Tufts University. [28] Google Scholar
DePaulo, B. M., Stone, J. L., & Lassiter, G. D. (1985). Deceiving and detecting deceit. In The self in social life (pp. 323–370), B. R. Schlenker (Ed.). New York: McGraw-Hill. [9] Google Scholar
Descartes, R. (1984). Principles of philosophy. In The philosophical writings of Descartes (Vol. 1, pp. 193–291), J. Cottingham, R. Stoothoff, & D. Murdoch, (Eds. and Trans.)Google Scholar
Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. (Original work published 1644.) [9] Google Scholar
DeSmet A. A., Fryback D. G., & Thornbury J. R. (1979). A second look at the utility of radiographic skull examination for trauma. American Journal of Roentgenology, 132 (1), 95–99. [39] Google Scholar
Desvouges, W. H., Johnson, F., Dunford, R., Hudson, S., Wilson, K., & Boyle, K. (1993). Measuring resource damages with contingent valuation: Tests of validity and reliability. In Contingent valuation: A critical assessment. Amsterdam: North Holland. [2] Google Scholar
Deutsch, R. M. (1977). The new nuts among the berries: How nutrition nonsense captured America. Palo Alto, CA: Ball Publishing. [34] Google Scholar
Diamond, (1996). Testing the internal consistency of contingent valuation surveys. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 28, 155–173. [2] Google Scholar
Diener, E. (1984). Subjective well-being. Psychological Bulletin, 95, 542–575. [16] Google Scholar
Diener, E. (1994). Assessing subjective well-being: Progress and opportunities. Social Indicators Research, 31, 103–157. [16] Google Scholar
Diener, E., Emmons, R. A., Larsen, R. J., & Griffin, S. (1985). The Satisfaction With Life Scale. Journal of Personality Assessment, 49, 71–75. [16] Google Scholar
DiFranza, J. R., Rigotti, N. A., McNeill, A. D., Ockene, J. K., Savageau, J. A., St Cyr, D., & Coleman, M. (2000). Initial symptoms of nicotine dependence in adolescents. Tobacco Control, 9, 313–319. [23] Google Scholar
DiMatteo, M. R., & DiNicola, D. D. (1982). Achieving patient compliance. New York: Pergamon Press. [4] Google Scholar
Doleys, E. J., & Renzaglia, G. A. (1963). Accuracy of student prediction of college grades. Personnel and Guidance Journal, 41, 528–530. [19] Google Scholar
Dominowski, R. L. (1995). Content effects in Wason's selection task. In Perspectives on thinking and reasoning (pp. 41–65), S. E. Newstead & J. S. B. T. Evans (Eds.). Hove, England: Erlbaum. [24] Google Scholar
Donaldson, M. (1978). Children's minds. London: Fontana Paperbacks. [24] Google Scholar
Donaldson, M. (1993). Human minds: An exploration. New York: Viking Penguin. [24] Google Scholar
Dovidio, J. F., Kawakami, K., Johnson, C., & Johnson, B. (1997). On the nature of prejudice: automatic and controlled processes. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 33, 510–540. [10] Google Scholar
Dowen, R. J. (1996). Analyst reaction to negative earnings for large well-known firms. Journal of Portfolio Management, 23, 49–55. [38] Google Scholar
Dowie, J. (1983). Risk. Buckinghamshire, England: Open University. [41] Google Scholar
Downs, J. S., & Shafir, E. (1999). Why some are perceived as more confident and more insecure, more reckless and more cautious, more trusting and more suspicious, than others: Enriched and impoverished options in social judgment. Psychonomic Bulletin and Review, 6, 598–610. [27] Google Scholar
Dreman, D. (1979). Contrarian investment strategy. New York: Random House. [41] Google Scholar
Dreman, D. (1999). Contrarian investment strategies: The next generation. New York: Simon & Schuster. [41] Google Scholar
Dreman, D. N., & Berry, M. A. (1995). Analyst forecasting errors and their implications for security analysis. Financial Analysts Journal, 51, 30–41. [38] Google Scholar
Dryfoos, J. G. (1990). Adolescents at risk: Prevalence and prevention. New York: Oxford University Press. [41] Google Scholar
Dube-Rioux, L., & Russo, J. E. (1988). An availability bias in professional judgment. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 1, 223–237. [25] Google Scholar
Dubois, D., & Prade, H. (1988). Modelling uncertainty and inductive inference: A survey of recent non-additive probability systems. Acta Psychologica, 68, 53–78. [25] Google Scholar
Dulany, D. E., & Hilton, D. J. (1991). Conversational implicature, conscious representation, and the conjunction fallacy. Social Cognition, 9, 85–110. [2, 24] Google Scholar
Dumond, J. W. M., & Cohen, E. R. (1951). Least-Squares adjusted values of the atomic constants as of December, 1950. Physical Review, 82, 555–556. [37] Google Scholar
Dumond, J. W. M., & Cohen, E. R. (1952). Least-Squares adjustment of the atomic constants. Reviews of Modern Physics, 25, 691–708. [37] Google Scholar
Dun & Bradstreet. (1967). Patterns of success in managing a business. New York: Dun & Bradstreet. [13] Google Scholar
Dunham H. W., & Meltzer, B. M. (1946). Predicting length of hospitalization of mental patients. American Journal of Sociology, 52, 123–131. [40] Google Scholar
Dunning, D., Griffin, D. W., Milojkovic, J., & Ross, L. (1990). The overconfidence effect in social prediction. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 58, 568–581. [13, 14, 16] Google Scholar
Dunning, D., Meyerowitz, J. A., & Holzberg, A. D. (1989). Ambiguity and self-evaluation: The role of idiosyncratic trait definitions in self-serving assessments of ability. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 57, 1082–1090. [19, 27] Google Scholar
Dunning, D., Perie, A., & Story, A. L. (1991). Self-serving prototypes of social categories. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 61, 957–968. [36] Google Scholar
Durkheim, E. (1976). The elementary forms of the religious life (2nd ed.). London: Allen and Unwin. (Original work published 1925). [32] Google Scholar
Dutton, D. G, & Aron, A. P. (1974). Some evidence for heightened sexual attraction under conditions of high anxiety. Journal of Personality & Social Psychology, 30, 510- 517. [10] Google Scholar
Duval, S., & Wicklund, R. A. (1972). A theory of objective self-awareness. New York: Academic Press. [20] Google Scholar
Dweck, C. S. (1986). Motivational processes affecting learning. American Psychologist, 41, 1040–1048. [36] Google Scholar
Eagly, A. H., & Chaiken, S. (1993). The psychology of attitudes. Fort Worth: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich. [14, 22, 29] Google Scholar
Eddy, D. M. (1982). Probabilistic reasoning in clinical medicine: Problems and opportunities. In Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 249–267), D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.). Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [39, 41] Google Scholar
Edmonson, F. K. (1934). Velocity of Light. Nature, 133, 759–760. [37] Google Scholar
Edwards, A. L. (1957). Techniques of attitude scale construction. New York: Appleton-Century-Croft. [23] Google Scholar
Edwards, K., & Smith, E. E. (1996). A disconfirmation bias in the evaluation of arguments. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 71, 5–24. [36] Google Scholar
Edwards, W. (1954). The theory of decision making. Psychological Bulletin, 51, 380–417. [31] Google Scholar
Edwards, W. (1961). Behavioral decision theory. Annual Review of Psychology, 12, 473- 498. [31] Google Scholar
Edwards, W. (1968). Conservatism in human information processing. In Formal representation of human judgment (pp. 17–52), B. Kleinmuntz (Ed.). New York: Wiley. [Introduction, 13] Google Scholar
Edwards, W. (1970). Comment. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 70, 291- 293. [1] Google Scholar
Edwards, W., Lindman, H., & Savage, L. J. (1963). Bayesian statistical inference for psychological research. Psychological Review, 70, 193–242. [Introduction] Google Scholar
Edwards, W., & von Winterfeldt, D. (1986). Cognitive illusions and their implications for the law. Southern California Law Review, 59, 225–276. [39] Google Scholar
Einhorn, H. J. (1972). Expert measurement and mechanical combination. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 7, 86–106. [40] Google Scholar
Einhorn, H. J., & Hogarth, R. M. (1975). Unit weighting schemes for decision making. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 13, 171–192. [40] Google Scholar
Einhorn, H. J., & Hogarth, R. M. (1978). Confidence in judgment: Persistence of the illusion of validity. Psychological Review, 85, 395–416. [28, 40] Google Scholar
Einhorn, H. J., & Hogarth, R. M. (1981). Behavioral decision theory: Processes of judgment and choice. Annual Review of Psychology, 32, 53–88. [1, 24, 28] Google Scholar
Einhorn, H. J., & Hogarth, R. M. (1982). A theory of diagnostic inference: Imagination and the psychophysics of evidence. Center for Decision Research, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago. [20] Google Scholar
Einhorn, H. J., & Hogarth, R. M. (1985). Ambiguity and uncertainty in probabilistic inference. Psychological Review, 92, 433–461. [6] Google Scholar
Einhorn, H. J., & Hogarth, R. M. (1986). Probable cause: Adecision making framework. Psychological Bulletin, 99, 3–19. [20] Google Scholar
Eisenhardt, C. (1968). Expression of uncertainties of final results. Science, 160, 1201- 1204. [37] Google Scholar
Elliott, R. (1975). Heart ratein anticipation of shocks which have different probabilities of occurrences. Psychological Reports, 36, 923–931. [30] Google Scholar
Ellis, H. D. (1986). Face recall: A psychological perspective. Human Learning. Journal of Practical Research and Applications, 5, 189–196. [17] Google Scholar
Elster, J. (1977). Ulysses and the sirens. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [16] Google Scholar
Elster, J. (1983). Sour grapes: Studies in the subversion of rationality. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [24] Google Scholar
Elster, J., & Loewenstein, G. (1992). Utility from memory and anticipation. In Choice over time (pp. 213–234), J. Elster & G. Loewenstein (Eds.). New York: Russell Sage Foundation. [14] Google Scholar
Elton, E. J., Gruber, M. J., & Gultekin, M. N. (1984). Professional expectations: Accuracy and diagnosis of errors. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 19, 351–365. [38] Google Scholar
Englich, B., & Mussweiler, T. (in press). Legal judgment under uncertainty: Anchoring effects in the court room. Journal of Applied Social Psychology. [6] Google Scholar
Epley, N., & Dunning, D. (2000). Feeling “holier than thou”: Are self-serving assessments produced by errors in self- or social prediction? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 79, 861–875. [14, 36] Google Scholar
Epley, N., & Gilovich, T. (2000a). Anchoring and effortful adjustment from self-generated anchors. Unpublished manuscript, Cornell University. [7] Google Scholar
Epley, N., & Gilovich, T. (2000b). Close but not quite: insufficient adjustment from self-generated anchors. Unpublished manuscript, Cornell University. [7] Google Scholar
Epley, N., & Gilovich, T. (2001). Putting adjustment back in the anchoring-and-adjustment heuristic: Self-generated versus experimenter provided anchors. Psychological Science, 12, 391–396. [Introduction] Google Scholar
Epstein, S. (1994). Integration of the cognitive and psychodynamic unconscious. American Psychologist, 49 (8), 709–724. [2, 23, 24] Google Scholar
Epstein, S., Lipson, A., Holstein, C., & Huh, E. (1992). Irrational reactions to negative outcomes: Evidence for two conceptual systems. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 62, 328–339. [22] Google Scholar
Erber, R., Wegner, D. M., & Therriault, N. (1996). On being cool and collected: Mood regulation in anticipation of social interaction. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 70, 757–766. [16] Google Scholar
Erber, R., & Tesser, A. (1992). Task effort and the regulation of mood: The absorption hypothesis. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 28, 339–359. [16] Google Scholar
Erev, I., Wallsten, T. S., & Budescu, D. V. (1994). Simultaneous over- and underconfi-dence: The role of error in judgment processes. Psychological Review, 101, 519–527. [15, 25, 26, 39] Google Scholar
Ericsson, A., & Simon, H. (1994). Verbal reports as data (2nd ed.). Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. [41] Google Scholar
Erwin, P. G., & Calev, A. (1984). The influence of Christian name stereotypes on the marking of children's essays. British Journal of Educational Psychology, 54, 223–227. [23] Google Scholar
Evans, J. St. B. T. (1982). The psychology of deductive reasoning. London: Routledge. [24] Google Scholar
Evans, J. St. B. T. (1984). Heuristic and analytic processes in reasoning. British Journal of Psychology, 75, 451–468. [24] Google Scholar
Evans, J. St. B. T. (1989). Bias in human reasoning: Causes and consequences. London: Erlbaum Associates. [24] Google Scholar
Evans, J. St. B. T. (1996). Deciding before you think: Relevance and reasoning in the selection task. British Journal of Psychology, 87, 223–240. [24] Google Scholar
Evans, J. St. B. T., Barston, J., & Pollard, P. (1983). On the conflict between logic and belief in syllogistic reasoning. Memory & Cognition, 11, 295–306. [22, 24] Google Scholar
Evans, J. St. B. T., Handley, S. H., Perham, N., Over, D. E., & Thompson, V. A. (2000). Frequency versus probability formats in statistical word problems. Cognition, 77, 197–213. [Introduction] Google Scholar
Evans, J. St. B. T., & Lynch, J. S. (1973). Matching bias in the selection task. British Journal of Psychology, 64, 391–397. [24] Google Scholar
Evans, J. St. B. T., Newstead, S. E., & Byrne, R. M. J. (1993). Human reasoning: The psychology of deduction. Hove, England: Erlbaum. [24] Google Scholar
Evans, J. St. B. T., & Over, D. E. (1996). Rationality and reasoning. Hove, England: Psychology Press. [Introduction, 22, 24] Google Scholar
Evans, J., Handley, S. J., Perham, N., Over, D. E., & Thompson, V. A. (2000). Frequency versus probability formats in statistical word problems. Cognition, 77, 197–213. [2] Google Scholar
Evans-Pritchard, E. E. (1937). Witchcraft, oracles and magic among the Azande. Oxford: Clarendon. [34] Google Scholar
Falk, R. (1981). The perception of randomness. In Proceedings, Fifth International Conference for the Psychology of Mathematics Education. Grenoble, France. [33] Google Scholar
Falk, R. (1992). A closer look at the probabilities of the notorious three prisoners. Cognition, 43, 197–223. [22] Google Scholar
Farber, H. S., & Bazerman, M. H. (1986). The general basis of arbitrator behavior: An empirical analysis of conventional and final offer arbitration. Econometrica, 54, 1503–1528. [39] Google Scholar
Farber, H. S., & Bazerman, M. H. (1989). Divergent expectations as a cause of disagreement in bargaining: Evidence from a comparison of arbitration schemes. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 104, 99–120. [39] Google Scholar
Faust, D. (1984). The limits of scientific reasoning. Minneapolis, MN: University of Minnesota Press. [40] Google Scholar
Fazio, R. H. (1995). Attitudes as object-evaluation associations: Determinants, consequences, and correlates of attitude accessibility. In Attitude strength: Antecedents and consequences (pp. 247–282), R. E. Petty & J. A. Krosnick (Eds.). Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum. [23] Google Scholar
Fazio, R. H., Jackson, J. R., Dunton, B. C., & Williams, C. J. (1995). Variability in automatic activation as an unobtrusive measure of racial attitudes: A bona fide pipeline? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 69, 1013–1027. [10] Google Scholar
Feather, N. T. (1967). Valence of outcome and expectation of success in relation to task difficulty and perceived locus of control. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 7, 372–386. [35] Google Scholar
Feather, N. T. (1969). Attribution of responsibility and valence of success and failure in relation to initial confidence and task performance. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 13, 129–144. [35] Google Scholar
Ferrari, J. R., Johnson, J. L., & McGown, W. G. (1995). Procrastination and task avoidance: Theory, research, and treatment. New York: Plenum Press. [14] Google Scholar
Ferrell, W. R. (1994). Discrete subjective probabilities and decision analysis: Elicitation, calibration, and combination. In Subjective probability (pp. 411–451), G. Wright & P. Ayton (Eds.). Chichester, U.K.: Wiley. [39] Google Scholar
Ferrell, W. R., & McGoey, P. J. (1980). Amodel of calibration for subjective probabilities. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 26, 32–53. [13, 27, 39] Google Scholar
Festinger, L. (1954). A theory of social comparison processes. Human Relations, 7, 117–140. [35] Google Scholar
Festinger, L. (1957). A theory of cognitive dissonance. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press. [16, 36] Google Scholar
Festinger, L. (Ed.). (1964). Conflict, decision, and dissonance. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press. [42] Google Scholar
Festinger, L., & Maccoby, N. (1964). On resistance to persuasive communications. Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 68, 359–366. [9] Google Scholar
Fetherstonhaugh, D., Slovic, P., Johnson, S. M., & Friedrich, J. (1997). Insensitivity to the value of human life: A study of psychophysical numbing. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 14 (3), 282–300. [23] Google Scholar
Fiedler, K. (1988). The dependence of the conjunction fallacy on subtle linguistic factors. Psychological Research, 50, 123–129. [24] Google Scholar
Fiedler, K., & Armbruster, T. (1994). Two halfs may be more than one whole. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 66, 633–645. [25] Google Scholar
Fiedler, K., Pampe, H., & Scherf, U. (1986). Mood an memory for tightly organized social information. European Journal of Social Psychology, 16, 149–164. [29] Google Scholar
Finucane, M. L., Alhakami, A., Slovic, P., & Johnson, S. M. (2000). The affect heuristic in judgments of risks and benefits. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 13, 1–17. [2, 23, 30] Google Scholar
Fischer, G. W., & Hawkins, S. A. (1988). Preference reversals in multiattribute decision making: Scale compatibility, strategy compatibility, and the prominence effect. Carnegie-Mellon University. Typescript. [12] Google Scholar
Fischer, G. W., Morgan, G. M., Fischhoff, B., Nair, I., & Lave, L. B. (1991). What risks are people concerned about? Risk Analysis, 11, 303–314. [41] Google Scholar
Fischer, P. M. (1991). Brand logo recognition by children ages 3 to 6 years: Mickey Mouse and Old Joe the Camel. Journal of the American Medical Association, 266, 3145. [23] Google Scholar
Fischhoff, B., Slovic. P., & Lichtenstein, S. (1981). Lay foibles and expert fables in judgments about risk. In Progress in resource management and environmental planning (Vol. 3, pp. 161–202), T. O'Riordan & R. K. Turner (Eds.). Chichester, U.K.: Wiley. [33] Google Scholar
Fischhoff, B. (1975). Hindsight is not equal to foresight: the effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 1, 288–299. [5, 6, 8,40,42] Google Scholar
Fischhoff, B. (1980). For those condemned to study the past. In New Directions for Methodology of Social and Behavioral Science (pp. 79–93), R. A. Schweder & D. W. Fiske (Eds.). San Francisco: Jossey-Bass. [40] Google Scholar
Fischhoff, B. (1982a). Debiasing. In Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 422–444), D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.). Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [5,10,13,14, 41, 42] Google Scholar
Fischhoff, B. (1982b). For those condemned to study the past: Heuristics and biases in hindsight. In Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 201–208), D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.). Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [5,19] Google Scholar
Fischhoff, B. (1984). Setting standards: A systematic approach to managing public health and safety risks. Management Science, 30, 823–843. [41] Google Scholar
Fischhoff, B. (1988). Judgment and decision making. In The psychology of human thought (pp. 153–187), R. Sternberg & E. E. Smith (Eds.). New York: Cambridge University Press. [39] Google Scholar
Fischhoff, B. (1989). Eliciting knowledge for analytical representation. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, 13, 448–461. [41] Google Scholar
Fischhoff, B. (1992). Giving advice: Decision theory perspectives on sexual assault. American Psychologist, 47, 577–588. [41] Google Scholar
Fischhoff, B. (1994). What forecasts (seem to) mean. International Journal of Forecasting, 10, 387–403. [41] Google Scholar
Fischhoff, B. (1995). Risk perception and communication unplugged: Twenty years of process. Risk Analysis, 15, 137–145. [41] Google Scholar
Fischhoff, B. (1996). The real world: What good is it? Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 65, 232–248. [41] Google Scholar
Fischhoff, B. (1998). Communicate unto others…. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 59, 63–72. [41] Google Scholar
Fischhoff, B. (1999). Why (cancer) risk communication can be hard. Journal of the National Cancer Institute Monographs, 25, 7–13. [41] Google Scholar
Fischhoff, B. (2000a). Informed consent in eliciting environmental values. Environmental Science and Technology, 38, 1439–1444 [41] Google Scholar
Fischhoff, B. (2000b). Need to know: Analytical and psychological criteria. Roger Williams University Law Review. [41] Google Scholar
Fischhoff, B., & Bar-Hillel, M. (1984). Focusing techniques: A shortcut to improving probability judgments? Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 34, 175–194. [13] Google Scholar
Fischhoff, B., & Beyth, R. (1975). “I knew it would happen” - remembered probabilities of once-future things. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 13, 1–16. [7,8,19, 40] Google Scholar
Fischhoff, B., & Beyth-Marom, R. (1983). Hypothesis evaluation from a Bayesian perspective. Psychological Review, 90, 239–260. [13, 41] Google Scholar
Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P., & Lichtenstein, S. (1978). Fault trees: Sensitivity of estimated failure probabilities to problem representation. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 4, 330–344. [14, 25] Google Scholar
Fischhoff, B., Lichtenstein, S., Slovic, P., Derby, S. L., & Keeney R. L. (1981). Acceptable risk. New York: Cambridge University Press. [41] Google Scholar
Fischhoff, B., & MacGregor D. (1982). Subjective confidence in forecasts. Journal of Forecasting, 1, 155–172. [13, 39] Google Scholar
Fischhoff, B., Nadaï, A., & Fischhoff, I. (2001). Investing in Frankenfirms. Journal of Psychology and Financial Markets, 2, 100–111. [41] Google Scholar
Fischhoff, B., Parker, A., Bruine de Bruin, W., Downs, J., Palmgren, C, Dawes, R. M., & Manski, C. (2000). Teen expectations for significant life events. Public Opinion Quarterly, 64, 189–205. [41] Google Scholar
Fischhoff, B., Riley, D., Kovacs, D., & Small, M. (1998). What information belongs in a warning? A mental models approach. Psychology and Marketing, 15, 663–686. [41] Google Scholar
Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P., & Lichtenstein, S. (1977). Knowing with certainty: The appropriateness of extreme confidence. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 3, 552–564. [15] Google Scholar
Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P., Lichtenstein, S., Reid, S., & Coombs, B. (1978). How safe is safe enough? A psychometric study of attitudes towards technological risks and benefits. Policy Sciences, 9, 127–152. [23, 41] Google Scholar
Fischhoff, B., & Whipple, C. (1981). Risk Assessment: Evaluating error in subjective estimates. Environmental Professional, 3, 277–291. [37] Google Scholar
Fishbein, M., & Ajzen, I. (1975). Belief, attitude, intention, and behavior: An introduction to theory and research. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley [14] Google Scholar
Fishburn, P. (1983). Nontransitive measurable utility. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 26, 31–67. [21] Google Scholar
Fiske, A., & Tetlock, P. E. (1997). Taboo trade-offs: Reactions to transactions that transgrees spheres of justice. Political Psychology, 18, 255–297. [32] Google Scholar
Fiske, S. T., Kenny, D. A., & Taylor, S. E. (1982). Structural models for the mediation of salience effects on attribution. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 18, 105–127. [20] Google Scholar
Fiske, S. T., & Neuberg, S. L. (1990). A continuum of impression formation, from category-based to individuating processes: Influences of information and motivation on attention and interpretation. In Advances in experimental social psychology (Vol. 23, pp. 1–74), M. P. Zanna (Ed.). New York: Academic Press. [Introduction, 29] Google Scholar
Fiske, S. T., & Taylor, S. E. (1991). Social cognition, 2nd Ed. New York: McGraw-Hill. [Introduction] Google Scholar
Fitts, P. M., & Seeger, C. M. (1953). S-R compatibility: spatial characteristics of stimulus and response codes. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 46, 199–210. [12] Google Scholar
Flavell, J. (1986). The development of children's knowledge about the appearance-reality distinction. American Psychologist, 41, 418–425. [11] Google Scholar
Flavell, J. H. (1963). The developmental psychology of Jean Piaget. New York: Van Nostrand. [27, 36] Google Scholar
Flavell, J. H. (1985). Cognitive development, 2nd ed. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall. [36] Google Scholar
Fleming, J., & Arrowood, A. J. (1979). Information processing and the perseverance of discredited self-perceptions. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 5, 201–205. [20] Google Scholar
Fodor, J. A. (2000). The mind doesn't work that way: The scope and limits of computational psychology, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. [Introduction] Google Scholar
Fodor, J. A., & Pylyshyn, Z. W. (1988). Connectionism and cognitive architecture: A critical analysis. Cognition, 28, 3–71. [22] Google Scholar
Fong, G. T., Krantz, D. H., & Nisbett, R. E. (1983). Improving inductive reasoning through statistical training. Unpublished manuscript, University of Michigan. [28] Google Scholar
Fong, G. T., Krantz, D. H., & Nisbett, R. E. (1986). The effects of statistical training on thinking about everyday problems. Cognitive Psychology, 18, 253–292. [24] Google Scholar
Fordyce, M. W. (1988). A review of research on the happiness measures: A sixty second index of happiness and mental health. Social Indicators Research, 20, 355–381. [16] Google Scholar
Forer, B. (1949). The fallacy of personal validation: A classroom demonstration of gullibility. Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 44, 118–123. [13] Google Scholar
Forgas, J. P. (1995). Emotion in social judgments: Review and a new affect infusion model (AIM). Psychological Bulletin, 117, 39–66. [29] Google Scholar
Forgas, J. P., & Bower, G. H. (1987). Mood effects on person perception judgments. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 53, 53–60. [29] Google Scholar
Forster, J., & Strack, F (1996). Influence of overt head movements on memory for valenced words: a case of conceptual-motor compatibility. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 71, 421–430. [7] Google Scholar
Forster, J., & Strack, F. (1997). Motor actions in retrieval of valenced information: a motor congruence effect. Perceptual and Motor Skills, 85, 1419–1427. [7] Google Scholar
Fox, C. R. (1999). Strength of evidence, judged probability, and choice under uncertainty. Cognitive Psychology, 38, 167–189. [27] Google Scholar
Fox, C. R., & Kahneman, D. (1992). Correlations, causes, and heuristics in surveys of life satisfaction. Social Indicators Research, 27, 221–234. [27] Google Scholar
Fox, C. R., Rogers, B. A., & Tversky A. (1996). Options traders exhibit subadditive decision weights. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 13, 5–17. [25, 26, 27] Google Scholar
Fox, C. R., & Tversky, A. (1995). Ambiguity Aversion and comparative ignorance. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110, 585–603. [27] Google Scholar
Fox, C. R., & Tversky, A. (1998). A belief-based account of decision under uncertainty. Management Science, 44, 879–895. [26, 27] Google Scholar
Frame, D. M. (transl.). (1943). The complete essays of Montaigne. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press. [8] Google Scholar
Francis, J., & Philbrick, D. R. (1993). Analysts' decisions as products of multi-task environment. Journal pf Accounting Research, 31, 216–230Google Scholar
Frank, M. G., & Gilovich, T. (1988). The dark side of self- and social perception: Black uniforms and aggression in professional sports. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 54, 74–85. [35] Google Scholar
Frank, R. H., & Cook, P. (1995). The winner-take-all society. New York: Free Press. [35] Google Scholar
Franklin, A. D. (1981). Millikan's Published and Unpublished Data on Oil Drops. Historical Studies in Physical Science, 11, 185–201. [37] Google Scholar
Franklin, A. D. (1984). Forging, cooking, trimming, and riding on the bandwagon. American Journal of Physics, 52, 786–793. [37] Google Scholar
Frazer, J. G. (1890/1959). The golden bough: a study in magic and religion. New York: Macmillan. (Reprint of 1922 abridged edition, edited by T. H. Gaster; original work published 1890) [11] Google Scholar
Frederick, S. W., & Fischhoff, B. (1998). Scope (in)sensitivity in elicited valuations. Risk, Decision, and Policy, 3, 109–124. [2,30] Google Scholar
Fredrickson, B. L., & Kahneman, D. (1993). Duration neglect in retrospective evaluations of affective episodes. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 65, 45–55. [2,16] Google Scholar
Freud, A. (1936). Ego and the mechanisms of defense (Rev. ed., 1966, trans., C. Baines). New York: International Universities Press. [16] Google Scholar
Freud, S. (1913). The interpretation of dreams. London: George Allen & Unwin. [22] Google Scholar
Freud, S. (1950). Totem and taboo: some points of agreement between the mental lives of savages and neurotics. (J. Strachey, Trans.). New York: W. W. Norton & Co. (Original work published 1913) [11] Google Scholar
Freud, S. (1966). The Dream Work. In Introductory lectures on psychoanalysis (Lecture Ⅺ, pp. 170–183), J. Strachey (Ed. & Trans.). New York: W. W. Norton & Co. (Original work published 1920) [11] Google Scholar
Friedman, N., & Goldszmit, L. (1996). A software for learning Bayesian networks. (Not released for public use.) [31] Google Scholar
Friedman, R. S., & Forster, J. (2000). The effects of approach and avoidance motor actions on the elements of creative insight. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 79, 477–492. [29] Google Scholar
Friedrich, J. (1996). On seeing oneself as less self serving than others: The ultimate self serving bias? Teaching of Psychology, 23, 107–109. [36] Google Scholar
Friedrich, J. Barnes, P., Chapin, K., Dawson, I., Garst, V., & Kerr, D. (1999). Psychophysical numbing: When lives are valued less as the lives at risk increase. Journal of Consumer Psychology, 8(3), 277–299. [23] Google Scholar
Fries, J. F, Bloch, D. A., Sharp, J. T., McShane, D. J., Spitz, P., Bluhm, G. B., Forrester, D., Genant, H., Gofton, P., Richman, S., et al. (1986). Assessment of radiologic progression in rheumatoid arthritis. A randomized, controlled trial. Arthritis and Rheumatism, 29, 1–9. [40] Google Scholar
Frisch, D. (1993). Reasons for froming effects. Organizational Behavior Human Decision Processes, 54, 399–429. [24] Google Scholar
Froome, & Essen. (1973). The Velocity of Light and Radio Waves. London: Academic. [37] Google Scholar
Froot, K. A., & Frankel, J. A. (1989). Forward discount bias: Is it an exchange risk premium? Quarterly Journal of Economics, 104, 139–161. [38] Google Scholar
Funder, D. C. (1982). On the accuracy of dispositional vs. situational attributions. Social Cognition, 1, 205–222. [20] Google Scholar
Funder, D. C. (1987). Errors and mistakes: Evaluating the accuracy of social judgment. Psychological Bulletin, 101, 75–90. [24] Google Scholar
Funtowicz, S., & Ravetz, J. (1990). Uncertainty and quality in science for policy. London: Kluwer. [41] Google Scholar
Furnham, A. F (1988). Lay theories. London: Pergamon Press. [41] Google Scholar
Fussell, S. R., & Krauss, R. M. (1989). The effects of intended audience on message production and comprehension: reference in a common ground framework. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 25, 203–219. [8] Google Scholar
Gabrielcik, A., & Fazio, R. H. (1984). Priming and frequency estimation: A strict test of the availability heuristic. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 10, 85- 89. [5] Google Scholar
Gaeth, G. J., & Shanteau, J. (1984). Reducing the influence of irrelevant information on experienced decision makers. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 33, 263. [37] Google Scholar
Gallagher, D., & Clore, G. L. (1985, May). Effects of fear and anger on judgments of risk and blame. Paper presented at the meetings of the Midwestern Psychological Association, Chicago. [29] Google Scholar
Ganzach, Y. (1996). Preference reversals in equal-probability gambles: A case for anchoring and adjustment. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 92, 95–109. [6] Google Scholar
Ganzach, Y. (2000). Judging risk and return of financial assets. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 83, 353–370. [23] Google Scholar
Ganzach, Y., & Krantz, D. H. (1990). The psychology of moderate prediction. I. Experience with multiple determination. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 47, 177–204. [2] Google Scholar
Garner, W. R. (1962). Uncertainty and structure as psychological concepts. New York: Wiley. [20] Google Scholar
Garner, W. R. (1970). Good patterns have few alternatives. American Scientist, 58, 34–42. [20] Google Scholar
Gati, I., & Tversky A. (1982). Representations of qualitative and quantitative dimensions. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 8, 325–340. [1] Google Scholar
Gerard, H. B., & Mathewson, G. C. (1966). The effects of severity of initiation on liking for a group: A replication. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 2, 278–287. [Introduction] Google Scholar
Gerrard, M., Gibbons, F. X., & Warner, T. D. (1991). Effects of reviewing risk-relevant behavior on perceived vulnerability among women Marines. Health Psychology, 10, 173–179. [17] Google Scholar
Gerrard, M., & Luus, C. A. E. (1995). Judgments of vulnerability to pregnancy: The role of risk factors and individual differences. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 21, 160–171. [19] Google Scholar
Gettys, C. E., Mehle, T., & Fisher, S. (1986). Plausibility assessments in hypothesis generation. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 37, 14–33. [25] Google Scholar
Gigerenzer, G. (1991a). How to make cognitive illusions disappear: Beyond “heuristics and biases.” In European Review of Social Psychology (Vol. 2, pp. 83–115), W. Stroebe & M. Hewstone (Eds.). Chichester, U.K.: Wiley. [2,14] Google Scholar
Gigerenzer, G. (1991b). From tools to theories: A heuristic of discovery in cognitive psychology. Psychological Review, 98, 254–267. [Introduction, 24, 27] Google Scholar
Gigerenzer, G. (1991c). How to make cognitive illusions disappear: Beyond heuristics and biases. European Review of Social Psychology, 2, 83–115. [Introduction, 24] Google Scholar
Gigerenzer, G. (1993). The bounded rationality of probabilistic mental models. In Rationality: Psychological and philosophical perspectives (pp. 284–313), K. Manktelow & D. Over (Eds.). London: Routledge. [24] Google Scholar
Gigerenzer, G. (1994). Why the distinction between single-event probabilities and frequencies is important for psychology (and vice versa). In Subjective probability (pp. 129–161), G. Wright & P. Ayton (Eds.). New York: Wiley. [Introduction, 14, 39] Google Scholar
Gigerenzer, G. (1996). On narrow norms and vague heuristics: A reply to Kahneman and Tversky (1996). Psychological Review, 103, 592–596. [24] Google Scholar
Gigerenzer, G. (1998). Ecological intelligence: An adaptation for frequencies. In The evolution of mind (pp. 9–29), D. Dellarosa Cummins & C. Allen (Eds.). New York: Oxford University Press. [Introduction, 14] Google Scholar
Gigerenzer, G., & Goldstein, D. G. (1996). Reasoning the fast and frugal way: Models of bounded rationality. Psychological Review, 103, 650–669. [2, 24, 30, 31] Google Scholar
Gigerenzer, G., & Hoffrage, U. (1995). How to improve Bayesian reasoning without instruction: Frequency formats. Psychological Review, 102, 684–704. [2, 24] Google Scholar
Gigerenzer, G., Hell, W., & Blank, H. (1988). Presentation and content - the use of base rates as a continuous variable. Journal of Experimental Psychology - Human Perception and Performance, 14(3), 513–525. [2,13] Google Scholar
Gigerenzer, G., Hoffrage, U., & Kleinbolting, H. (1991). Probabilistic mental models: A Brunswikian theory of confidence. Psychological Review, 98, 506–528. [13, 31, 39] Google Scholar
Gigerenzer, G., Swijtink, Z., Porter, T., Daston, L., Beatty, J., & Krtiger, L. (1989). The empire of chance: How probability changed science and even life. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [31] Google Scholar
Gigerenzer, G., Todd, P. M., & the ABC Research Group. (1999). Simple heuristics that make us smart, New York: Oxford University Press. [Introduction, 2, 30, 31] Google Scholar
Gilbert, D. (1989). Thinking lightly about others: Automatic components of the social inference process. In Unintended thought (pp. 189–211), J. Uleman & J. A. Bargh (Eds.). New York: Guilford. [2,7] Google Scholar
Gilbert, D. T. (1990). Unbelieving the unbelievable: Some problems in the rejection of false information. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 59, 601–613. [6] Google Scholar
Gilbert, D. T. (1991). How mental systems believe. American Psychologist, 46, 107–119. [2, 6,9,10,16] Google Scholar
Gilbert, D. T. (1993). The assent of man: Mental representation and the control of belief. In The handbook of mental control (pp. 57–87), D. M. Wegner & J. W. Pennebaker, (Eds.). Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall. [9,10] Google Scholar
Gilbert, D. T. (1999). What the mind's not. In Dual process theories in social psychology (pp. 3–11), S. Chaiken & Y. Trope (Eds.). New York: Guilford. [2, 9] Google Scholar
Gilbert, D. T., Giesler, R. B., & Morris, K. A. (1995). When comparisons arise. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 69, 227–236. [9] Google Scholar
Gilbert, D. T., Gill, M. J., & Wilson, T. D. (in press). The future is now: Temporal correction in affective forecasting. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. [16] Google Scholar
Gilbert, D. T., Krull, D. S., & Malone, P. S. (1990). Unbelieving the unbelievable: Some problems in the rejection of false information. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 59, 601–613. [9] Google Scholar
Gilbert, D. T., Krull, D. S., & Pelham, B. W. (1988). Of thoughts unspoken: Social inference and the self-regulation of behavior. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 55, 685–694. [9] Google Scholar
Gilbert, D. T., McNulty S. E., Giuliano, T. A., & Benson, J. E. (1992). Blurry words and fuzzy deeds: The attribution of obscure behavior. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 62, 18–25. [9] Google Scholar
Gilbert, D. T., & Malone, P. S. (1995). The correspondence bias. Psychological Bulletin, 117, 21–38. [9, 36] Google Scholar
Gilbert, D. T., Miller, A. G., & Ross, L. (1998). Speeding with Ned: A personal view of the correspondence bias. In Attribution and social interaction: the legacy of Edward E. Jones (pp. 5–66), J. M. Darley & J. Cooper (Eds.). Washington, DC: American Psychological Association. [6] Google Scholar
Gilbert, D. T., & Osborne, R. E. (1989). Thinking backward: Some curable and incurable consequences of cognitive busyness. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 57, 940–949. [8, 9] Google Scholar
Gilbert, D. T., Pelham, B. W., & Krull, D. S. (1988). On cognitive busyness: When person perceivers meet person receivers. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 54, 733–740. [6, 8,9] Google Scholar
Gilbert, D. T., Tafarodi, R. W., & Malone, P. S. (1993). You can't not believe everything you read. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 65, 221–233. [6, 9] Google Scholar
Gilbert, D. T., & Wilson, T. D. (2000). Miswanting: Some problems in the forecasting of future affective states. In Feeling and thinking: The role of affect in social cognition (pp. 178–198), J. Forgas (Ed.). Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [14,16] Google Scholar
Gilboa, I., & Schmeidler, D. (1994). Additive representations of non-additive measures and the Choquet integral. Annals of Operation Research, 51, 43–65. [25] Google Scholar
Gill, M., & Gilbert, D. T. (1999). Sequential operations in self-perception. Unpublished data. [9] Google Scholar
Gillies, G. T. (1983). The Newtonian Gravitational Constant: An Index of Measurements (BIPM-83/1), Bureau International des Poids et Mesures. [37] Google Scholar
Gilovich, T. (1983). Biased evaluation and persistence in gambling. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 44, 1110–1126. [18,19, 33] Google Scholar
Gilovich, T. (1990). Differential construal and the false consensus effect. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 59, 623–634. [36] Google Scholar
Gilovich, T. (1991). How we know what isn't so: The fallibility of human judgment in everyday life, New York: Free Press. [Introduction, 34, 41] Google Scholar
Gilovich, T. (2000, June). Motivated skepticism and motivated credulity: Differential standards of evidence in the evaluation of desired and undesired propositions. Address presented at the 12th Annual Convention of the American Psychological Society, Miami Beach, Florida. [27] Google Scholar
Gilovich, T., Kerr, M., & Medvec, V. H. (1993). Effect of temporal perspective on subjective confidence. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 64, 552–560. [19] Google Scholar
Gilovich, T., & Medvec, V. H. (1995). The experience of regret: What, when, and why. Psychological Review, 102, 379–395. [16] Google Scholar
Gilovich, T., Medvec, V. H., & Chen, S. (1995). Omission, commission, and dissonance reduction: Coping with regret in the “Monty Hall” problem. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 21, 182–190. [21] Google Scholar
Gilovich, T., Medvec, V. H., & Savitsky K. (2000). The spotlight effect in social judgment: An egocentric bias in estimates of the salience of one's own actions and appearance. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 78, 211–222. [7] Google Scholar
Gilovich, T., & Savitsky, K. (1999). The spotlight effect and the illusion of transparency: egocentric assessments of how we're seen by others. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 8, 165–168. [7, 8] Google Scholar
Gilovich, T., Savitsky, K., & Medvec, V. H. (1998). The illusion of transparency: Biased assessments of others' ability to read our emotional states. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 75, 332–346. [7,8] Google Scholar
Gilovich, T., Vallone, R. P., & Tversky A. (1985). The hot hand in basketball: On the misperception of random sequences. Cognitive Psychology, 17, 295–314. [35] Google Scholar
Girotto, V., & Gonzalez, M. (2001). Solving probabilistic and statistical problems: A matter of information structure and question form. Cognition, 78, 247–276. [Introduction] Google Scholar
Glaser, R. (1990). Expertise. In The Blackwell dictionary of cognitive psychology (p. 139), M. W. Eysenk, A. N. Ellis, E. Hunt, & P. Johnson-Laird (Eds.). Oxford, U.K.: Blackwell Reference. [39] Google Scholar
Gleicher, F, Boninger, D. S., Strathman, A., Armor, D., Hetts, J., & Ahn, M. (1995). With an eye toward the future: The impact of counterfactual thinking on affect, attitudes, and behavior. In What might have been: The social psychology of counterfactual thinking (pp. 283–304), N. J. Roese & J. M. Olson (Eds.). Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [21] Google Scholar
Goldaper, S. (1990, June 9). Pistons put the game on the line. The New York Times, p. C46. [21] Google Scholar
Goldberg, J. H., Lerner, J. S., & Tetlock, P. E. (1999). Rage and reason: The psychology of the intuitive prosecutor. European Journal of Social Psychology, 29, 781–795. [32] Google Scholar
Goldberg, L. R. (1965). “Diagnosticians vs. diagnostic signs: The diagnosis of psychosis vs. neurosis from the MMPI,” Psychological Monographs, 79 (9, Whole No. 602). [40] Google Scholar
Goldberg, L. R. (1968). Simple models or simple processes? Some research on clinical judgment. American Psychologist, 23, 483–496. [40, 41] Google Scholar
Goldberg, L. R. (1970). Man versus model of man: A rationale, plus some evidence, for a method of improving on clinical inferences. Psychological Bulletin, 73, 422–432. [40] Google Scholar
Goldman, A. I. (1978). Epistemics: The regulative theory of cognition. Journal of Philosophy, 55, 509–523. [24] Google Scholar
Goldsmith, R. W. (1978). Assessing probabilities of compound events in a judicial context. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology, 19, 103–110. [1] Google Scholar
Goldstein, D. G., & Gigerenzer, G. (1996). Satisficing inference and the perks of ignorance. In Proceedings of the Eighteenth Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society (pp. 137–141), G. W. Cottrell (Ed.). Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum. [31] Google Scholar
Goldstein, W. M. (1984). The relationship between judgment and choice. Unpublished Doctoral dissertation, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor. [23] Google Scholar
Goldstein, W. M., & Einhom, H. J. (1987). Expression theory and the preference reversal phenomena. Psychological Review, 94, 236–254. [6,12, 23] Google Scholar
Gollwitzer, P. M. (1993). Goal achievement: The role of intentions. In European review of social psychology (Vol. 4, pp. 141–185), W. Stroebe & M. Hewstone (Eds.). London: John Wiley & Sons. [16] Google Scholar
Gollwitzer, P. M. (1999). Implementation intentions: Strong effects of simple plans. American Psychologist, 54, 493–503. [14] Google Scholar
Gollwitzer, P. M., & Brandstatter, V. (1997). Implementation intentions and effective goal pursuit. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 73, 186–199. [14] Google Scholar
Gollwitzer, P. M., Heckhausen, H., & Steller, B. (1990). Deliberative and implemental mindsets: Cognitive tuning toward congruous thoughts and information. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 59, 1119–1127. [16] Google Scholar
Gonzales, M., & Bonini, N. (1995). Probability judgments in two-outcome situations: What induces a defect in complementarity? Unpublished manuscript, Centre de Recherche en Psychologie Cognitive, University de Provence, Aix-en-Provence, France. [26] Google Scholar
Good, I. J. (1971). The probabilistic explication of information, evidence surprise, causality, explanation, and utility. In Foundations of statistical inference: Proceedings on the foundations of statistical inference, V. P. Godambe & D. A. Sprott (Eds.). Toronto, Ontario: Holt, Rinchart & Winston. [1] Google Scholar
Goodman-Delahunty J., Granhag, P. A., & Loftus, E. F. (1998). How well can lawyers predict their chances of success? Unpublished manuscript, University of Washington. [39] Google Scholar
Gopnik, A., & Wellman, H. (1992). Why the child's theory of mind is really a theory. Mind and Language, 7, 145–171. [8] Google Scholar
Gough, P. B. (1965). Grammatical transformations and speed of understanding. Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior, 4, 107–111. [9] Google Scholar
Gough, P. B. (1966). The verification of sentences: the effects of delay of evidence and sentence length. Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior, 5, 492–496. [9] Google Scholar
Gould, S. J. (1991). Bully for brontosaurus. Reflections in natural history. New York: Norton. [2, 22] Google Scholar
Gould, S. J. (1995). Dinosaur in a haystack: Reflections in natural history. New York: Harmony Books. [42] Google Scholar
Gould, S. J. (1997). The pleasures of pluralism. New York Review of Books, June 26. [Introduction] Google Scholar
Grayson, C. E., & Schwarz, N. (1999). Beliefs influence information processing strategies: declarative and experiential information in risk assessment. Social Cognition, 17, 1–18. [5] Google Scholar
Green, A. E., & Bourne, A. J. (1972). Reliability technology. New York: Wiley. [37] Google Scholar
Green, D., Jacowitz, K. E., Kahneman, D., & McFadden, D. (1998). Referendum contingent valuation, anchoring, and willingness to pay for public goods. Resource and Energy Economics, 20, 85–116. [6] Google Scholar
Green, M., Visser, P., & Tetlock, P. E. (1999). Copingwith accountability cross-pressures: Low-effort evasive tactics and high-effort quests for complex compromises. Unpublished manuscript, The Ohio State University. [32] Google Scholar
Greene, S. B., Gerrig, R. J., McKoon, G., & Ratcliff, R. (1994). Unheralded pronouns and management by common ground. Journal of Memory and Language, 33, 511–526. [8] Google Scholar
Greenwald, A. G. (1980). The totalitarian ego: Fabrication and revision of personal history. American Psychologist, 35, 603–618. [16] Google Scholar
Greenwald, A. G., & Banaji, M. R. (1995). Implicit social cognition: Attitudes, self-esteem, and stereotypes. Psychological Review, 102, 4–27. [16] Google Scholar
Greenwald, A. G., Carnot, C. G., Beach, R., & Young, B. (1987). Increasing voter behavior by asking people if the expect to vote. Journal of Applied Psychology, 72, 315–318. [19] Google Scholar
Greenwald, A. G., McGhee, D. E., & Schwartz, J. L. K. (1998). Measuring individual differences in implicit cognition: the Implicit Association Test. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 74, 1464–1480. [10] Google Scholar
Greenwald, A. G., Pratkanis, A. R., Leippe, M. R., & Baumgardner, M. H. (1986). Under what conditions does theory obstruct research progress? Psychological Review, 93, 216–229. [40] Google Scholar
Gregory, W. L., Cialdini, R. B., & Carpenter, K. M. (1982). Self-relevant scenarios as mediators of likelihood estimates and compliance: Does imagining make it so? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 43, 89–99. [4, 17] Google Scholar
Grether, D. M. (1980). Bayes' rule as a descriptive model: The representativeness heuristic. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 95, 537–557. [13] Google Scholar
Grether, D. M. (1992). Testing Bayes' rule and the representativeness heuristic: Some experimental evidence. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 17, 31–57. [13] Google Scholar
Grether, D. M., & Plott, C. R. (1979). Economic theory of choice and the preference reversal phenomenon. American Economic Review, 69, 623–638. [Introduction, 12] Google Scholar
Grice, H. P. (1975). Logic and conversation. In Syntax and semantics. Vol. 3. Speech acts, (pp. 41–58), P. Cole and J. L. Morgan (Eds.). New York: Academic Press. [1, 6,8, 20, 32] Google Scholar
Griffin, D. W., & Buehler, R. (1999). Frequency, probability, and prediction: Easy solutions to cognitive illusions? Cognitive Psychology, 38, 48–78. [Introduction, 14, 19] Google Scholar
Griffin, D. W., Dunning, D., & Ross, L. (1990). The role of construal processes in overconfident predictions about the self and others. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 59, 1128–1139. [14, 16] Google Scholar
Griffin, D. W., Gonzalez, R., & Varey, C. (2001). The heuristics and biases approach to judgment under uncertainty. In Blackwell handbook of social psychology: Intrapersonal processes, N. Schwarz & A. Tesser (Eds.). Oxford, U.K.: Blackwell Publishers. [8, 27, 34, 39] Google Scholar
Griffin, D. W., & Kahneman, D. (in press). Judgmental heuristics: Human strength or human weakness? In The Psychology of Human Strengths (pp. 319–359), L. Aspinwall & U. Staudinger (Eds.). APA Books. [Introduction] Google Scholar
Griffin, D. W., & Ross, L. (1991). Subjective construal, social inference and human misunderstanding. In Advances in Experimental Social Psychology (Vol. 21, pp. 319–359), M. P. Zanna (Ed.). New York: Academic Press. [Introduction, 8,16, 42] Google Scholar
Griffin, D. W., & Tversky, A. (1992). The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence. Cognitive Psychology, 24, 411–435. [Introduction, 2,6,8,14,15, 27,39] Google Scholar
Griffin, D., & Varey, C. (1996). Towards a consensus on overconfidence. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 65, 227–231. [39] Google Scholar
Griffith, R. M. (1949). Odds adjustments by American horse-race bettors. American Journal of Psychology, 62, 290–294. [13] Google Scholar
Griffth, R. W., & Rogers, R. W. (1976). Effects of fear-arousing components of driver education on students' safety attitudes and simulator performance. Journal of Educational Psychology, 68, 501–506. [17] Google Scholar
Griggs, R. A., & Cox, J. R. (1982). The elusive thematic-materials effect in Wason's selection task. British Journal of Psychology, 73, 407–420. [24] Google Scholar
Griggs, R. A., & Cox, J. R. (1983). The effects of problem content and negation on Wason's selection task. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 35, 519–533. [24] Google Scholar
Grove, W. M., & Meehl, P. E. (1996). Comparative efficiency of informal (subjective, impressionistic) and formal (mechanical, algorithmic) prediction procedures: The clinical/statistical controversy. Psychology, Public Policy, and Law, 2, 1–31. [40] Google Scholar
Grove, W. M., Zald, D. H., Lebow, B. S., Snitz, B. E., & Nelson, C. (2000). Clinical vs. mechanical prediction: A meta-analysis. Psychological Assessment, 12, 19–30. [40] Google Scholar
Guilmette, T. J., Faust, D., Hart, K., & Arkes, H. R. (1990). A national survey of psychologists who offer neuropsychological services. Archives of Clinical Neuropsychology, 5, 373–392. [40] Google Scholar
Gunther, A. C. (1995). Overrating the X-rating: The third-person perception and support for censorship of pornography. Journal of Communication, 45, 26–39. [36] Google Scholar
Gur, R. C, & Sackheim, H. A. (1979). Self-deception: A concept in search of a phenomenon. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 37, 147–169. [16] Google Scholar
Gardenfors, P., & Sahlin, N. E. (Eds.). (1989). Decision, probability and utility. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. [41] Google Scholar
Haddock, G., Rothman, A. J., Reber, R., & Schwarz, N. (1999). Forming judgments of attitude certainty, importance, and intensity: the role of subjective experiences. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 25, 771–782. [5] Google Scholar
Hagafors, R., & Brehmer, B. (1983). Does having to justify one's judgments change the nature of the judgment process? Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 31, 223–232. [32] Google Scholar
Haidt, J., Koller, S., & Dias, M. (1993). Affect, culture, and morality: Or, is it wrong to eat your dog? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 65, 613–628. [11] Google Scholar
Haidt, J., McCauley C. R., & Rozin, P. (1994). A scale to measure disgust sensitivity. Personality and Individual Differences, 16, 701–713. [11] Google Scholar
Hakmiller, K. L. (1966). Threat as a determinant of downward comparison. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, Supplement 1, 32–39. [17] Google Scholar
Halbower, C. C. (1955). A comparison of actuarial vs. clinical prediction to classes discriminated by the Minnesota multiphasic personality inventory. Unpublished Doctoral Dissertation, University of Minnesota. [40] Google Scholar
Hall, P. (1980). Great planning disasters. London: Weidenfeld & Nicolson. [14] Google Scholar
Hallenback, C. (1920). Forecasting precipitation in percentages of probability. Monthly Weather Review, 645–647. [39] Google Scholar
Hamer, C. (1981). “Good-fishin!” (2nd ed.). St. Paul, MN: P. F., Inc. [28] Google Scholar
Hammond (1996). Human Judgment and Social Policy: Irreducible Uncertainty, Inevitable Error, Unavoidable Injustice. New York: Oxford. [2,39] Google Scholar
Hammond, K. R. (1955). Probabilistic functioning and the clinical method. Psychological Review, 62, 255–262. [2] Google Scholar
Hammond, K. R., & Brehmer, B. (1973). Quasi-rationality and distrust: Implications for international conflict. In Human judgment and social interaction, L. Rappoport & D. A. Summers (Eds.). New York: Holt, Rinehart & Winston. [1] Google Scholar
Hammond, K., Hursch, C, & Todd, F. (1964). Analyzing the components of Clinical Inference. Psychological Review, 71, 438. [39] Google Scholar
Hammond, K. R., & Summers, D. A. (1965). Cognitive dependence on linear and nonlinear cues. Psychological Review, 72, 215–224. [40] Google Scholar
Hampson, S. E., John, O. P., & Goldberg. L. R. (1986). Category breadth and hierarchical structure in personality: Studies of asymmetries in judgments of trait implications. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 51, 37–54. [18] Google Scholar
Hansen, R. D., & Donoghue, J. M. (1977). The power of consensus: Information derived from one's own and other's behavior. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 35, 294–302. [20] Google Scholar
Hanslin, J. M. (1967). Craps and magic. American Journal of Sociology, 73, 316–330. [34] Google Scholar
Hanson, J. D., & Kysar, D. A. (1999a). Taking behavioralism seriously: Some evidence of market manipulation. Harvard Law Review, 112(7), 1420–1572. [23, 41] Google Scholar
Hanson, J. D., & Kysar, D. A. (1999b). Taking behavioralism seriously: The problem of market manipulation. New York University Law Review, 74 (3), 630–749. [23, 41] Google Scholar
Hanson, J. D., & Kysar, D. A. (2001). The joint failure of economic theory and legal regulation. In Smoking: Risk, perception, and policy (pp. 229–276), P. Slovic (Ed.). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage. [23] Google Scholar
Harari, H., & McDavid, J. W. (1973). Name stereotypes and teachers' expectations. Journal of Educational Psychology, 65, 222–225. [23] Google Scholar
Hare, R. D. (1965). Psychopathy, fear arousal and anticipated pain. Psychological Reports, 16, 499–502. [23] Google Scholar
Harman, G. (1995). Rationality. In Thinking (Vol. 3, pp. 175–211), E. E. Smith & D. N. Osherson (Eds.). Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. [24] Google Scholar
Harris, W., & Joyce, M. A. (1980). What's fair? It depends on how you ask the question. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 38, 165–170. [30] Google Scholar
Hart, H. L. A., & Honore, A. M. (1959). Causation in the law. London: Oxford University Press. [20] Google Scholar
Hartman, R. S., Doane, M. J., & Woo, C. K. (1991). Consumer rationality and the status quo. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106(1), 142–162. [30] Google Scholar
Harvey, L. O., Jr., Hammond, K. R., Lusk, C. M., & Mross, E. F. (1992). Application of signal detection theory to weather forecasting behavior. Monthly Weather Review, 120, 863–883. [39] Google Scholar
Harvey, N. (1997). Confidence in judgment. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 1, 78–82. [27] Google Scholar
Hasher, L., & Zacks, R. T. (1979). Automatic and effortful processes in memory. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 108, 356–388. [9, 41] Google Scholar
Hastie, R. (1984). Causes and effects of causal attribution. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 46, 44–56. [20] Google Scholar
Hastie, R., & Kumar, R. A. (1979). Person memory: Personality traits as organizing principles in memory for behaviors. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 37, 25–38. [20] Google Scholar
Hastorf, A., & Cantril, H. (1954). They saw a game: A case study. Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 49, 129–134. [36] Google Scholar
Hausch, D. B., Ziemba, W. T., & Rubinstein, M. (1981). Efficiency of the market for racetrack betting. Management Science, 27, 1435–1452. [13] Google Scholar
Hawkins, S. A., & Hastie, R. (1990). Hindsight: biased judgment of past events after the outcomes are known. Psychological Bulletin, 107, 311–327. [5,6, 7] Google Scholar
Hayes, R. M. (1998). The impact of trading commission incentives on analysts' stock coverage decisions and earnings forecasts. Journal of Accounting Research, 36, 299–320. [38] Google Scholar
Haynes, R. B., Taylor, D. W., & Sackett, D. L. (1979). Compliance in health care. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press. [4] Google Scholar
Heath, C. (1999). On the social psychology of agency relationships: Lay theories of motivation overemphasize extrinsic incentives. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 78, 25–62. [36] Google Scholar
Heath, C, Larrick, R. P., & Wu, G. (1999). Goals as reference points. Cognitive Psychology, 38, 79–109. [14] Google Scholar
Heath, F., & Tversky A. (1991). Preference and belief: Ambiguity and competence in choice under uncertainty. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 4, 5–28. [13] Google Scholar
Heider, F. (1958). The psychology of interpersonal relations, New York: Wiley. [Introduction, 9, 20] Google Scholar
Heider, F. (1994). Social perception and phenomenal causality. Psychological Review, 51, 358–374. [2] Google Scholar
Heine, S., & Lehman, D. (1995). Cultural variation in unrealistic optimism: Does the West feel more invulnerable than the East? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 68, 595–607. [14] Google Scholar
Hejmadi, A., Rozin, P., & Siegal, M. (2000). Development of the concept of contagious essence in Indian and American children. Unpublished manuscript. [11] Google Scholar
Helmholtz, H. von (1903). Popular lectures on scientific subjects (E. Atkinson, trans.). New York: Green. (Originally published 1881.) [1] Google Scholar
Helmreich, W. B. (1992). Against all odds: Holocaust survivors and the successful lives they made in America. New York: Simon & Schuster. [16] Google Scholar
Helson, H. (1964). Adaptation level theory: An experimental and systematic approach to behavior. New York: Harper. [20] Google Scholar
Hempel, C. (1965). Aspects of scientific explanation and other essays in the philosophy of science. New York: Free Press. [42] Google Scholar
Hendrickx, L., Vlek, C., & Oppewal, H. (1989). Relative importance of scenario information and frequency information in the judgment of risk. Acta Psychologica, 72, 41–63. [23] Google Scholar
Henle, M. (1962). On the relation between logic and thinking. Psychological Review, 69, 366–378. [24] Google Scholar
Henrion, M. (1982). The value of knowing how little you know: The advantages of a probabilistic approach to uncertainty in policy analysis. Doctoral dissertation, Carnegie Mellon University. [41] Google Scholar
Herrnstein, R. J. (1990). Rational choice theory. American Psychologist, 45, 356- 367. [16] Google Scholar
Herrnstein, R. J. (1969). Method and theory in the study of avoidance. Psychological Review, 76, 49–69. [16] Google Scholar
Hershey J. C, & Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1985). Probability versus certainty equivalence methods in utility measurement: are they equivalent? Management Science, 31, 1213–1231. [6, 8] Google Scholar
Hertel, G., Neuhof, J., Theuer, T., & Kerr, N. L. (2000). Mood effects on cooperation in small groups: Does positive mood simply lead to more cooperation? Cognition and Emotion, 14, 441–472. [29] Google Scholar
Hertwig, R., & Gigerenzer, G. (1999). The “conjunction fallacy” revisited: How intelligent inferences look like reasoning errors. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 12(4), 275–305. [2] Google Scholar
Heuer, R. J. (1999). The psychology of intelligence analysis. Langley VA: Center for the Study of Intelligence. [41] Google Scholar
Higgins, E. T. (1996). Knowledge: Accessibility, applicability, and salience. In Social psychology: handbook of basic principles (pp. 133–168), E. T. Higgins & A. Kruglanski (Eds.). New York: Guilford. [5] Google Scholar
Higgins, E. T., King, G. A., & Mavin, G. H. (1982). Individual construct accessibility and subjective impressions and recall. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 43, 35–47. [Introduction] Google Scholar
Higgins, E. T., & Brendl, C. M. (1995). Accessibility and applicability: Some “activation rules” influencing judgment. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 31, 218–243. [2] Google Scholar
Higgins, E. T., Rholes, W. S., & Jones, C. R. (1977). Category accessibility and impression formation. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 13, 141–154. [Introduction] Google Scholar
Higgins, E. T., & King, G. (1981). Accessibility of social constructs: Information-processing consequences of individual and contextual variability. In Personality, cognition and social interaction (pp. 69–121), N. Cantor & J. F. Kihlstrom (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. [20] Google Scholar
Higgins, E. T., & Lurie, L. (1983). Context, categorization, and memory: The “change-of-standard” effect. Cognitive Psychology, 15, 525–547. [20] Google Scholar
Hilton, D. J. (1995). The social context of reasoning: Conversational inference and rational judgment. Psychological Bulletin, 118, 248–271. [24] Google Scholar
Hilton, D. J., & Slugoski, B. R. (1986). Knowledge-based causal attribution: The abnormal conditions focus model. Psychological Review, 93, 75–88. [9] Google Scholar
Hilton, D. J., & Slugoski, B. R. (2001). Conversational processes in reasoning and explanation. In Blackwell handbook of social psychology. Vol. 1: Intraindividual processes, (pp. 181–206), A. Tesser & N. Schwarz (Eds.). Oxford, U.K.: Blackwell. [2] Google Scholar
Hinds, P. J. (1999). The curse of expertise: The effects of expertise and debiasing methods on prediction of novice performance. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 5, 205–221. [36] Google Scholar
Hinton, G. E. (1990). Mapping part-whole hierarchies into connectionist networks. Artificial Intelligence, 46, 47–76. [22] Google Scholar
Hintzman, D. (1976). Repetition and memory. In The psychology of learning and motivation (Vol. 10, pp. 47–91), G. H. Bower (Ed.). New York: Academic Press. [41] Google Scholar
Hintzman, D. L. (1986). “Schema abstraction” in a multiple-trace memory model. Psychological Review, 93 (4), 411–428. [20] Google Scholar
Hintzman, D. L., & Ludlam, G. (1980). Differential forgetting of prototypes and old instances: Simulation by an exemplar-based classification model. Memory and Cognition, 8, 378–382. [20] Google Scholar
Hiroto, D. S., & Seligman, M. E. P. (1975). Generality of learned helplessness in man. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 31, 311–327. [19] Google Scholar
Hirshleifer, D., & Shumway T. (2001). Good day sunshine: Stock returns and the weather. Unpublished manuscript, Ohio State University. [29] Google Scholar
Hirt, E. R., & Markman, K. D. (1995). Multiple explanation: a consider-an-alternative strategy for debiasing judgments. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 69, 1069–1086. [10] Google Scholar
Hoch, S. J. (1984). Availability and inference in predictive judgment. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 10, 649–662. [14, 17] Google Scholar
Hoch, S. J. (1985). Counterfactual reasoning and accuracy in predicting personal events. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 11, 719–731. [14, 19, 39] Google Scholar
Hofstadter, D. R. (1979). Godel, Escher, Bach: An eternal golden braid. New York: Basic Books. [20] Google Scholar
Hofstadter, D. R. (1985). Metamagical themas: Questing for the essence of mind and pattern. New York: Basic Books. [20] Google Scholar
Hogarth, R. M. (1980). Judgement and choice. New York: Wiley. [28] Google Scholar
Hogarth, R. M., & Einhorn, H. J. (1992). Order effects in belief updating: the belief-adjustment model. Cognitive Psychology, 24, 1–55. [6] Google Scholar
Hogarth, R., & Makridakis, S. (1981). Beyond discrete biases: Functional and dysfunctional aspect of judgmental heuristics. Psychology Bulletin, 90, 115–137. [39] Google Scholar
Hoorens, V. (1995). Self-favoring biases, self-presentation, and the self-other asymmetry in social comparison. Journal of Personality, 63, 793–813. [27] Google Scholar
Hoorens, V., & Ruiter, S. (1996). The optimal impact phenomenon: Beyond the third person effect. European Journal of Social Psychology, 26, 599–619. [36] Google Scholar
Hoosain, R. (1986). Perceptual processes of the Chinese. In The psychology of the Chinese people (pp. 38–72), M. H. Bond (Ed.), Hong Kong: Oxford University Press. [15] Google Scholar
Horton, W. S., & Keysar, B. (1996). When do speakers take into account common ground? Cognition, 59, 91–117. [8] Google Scholar
House Subcommittee on Health and Long-Term Care (1984). Quackery: A $10 billion scandal: A report by the chairman of the Subcommittee on Health and Long-Term Care. Washington, DC: United States Government Printing Office. [34] Google Scholar
Howard, R. A. (1989). Knowledge maps. Mananagement Science, 35, 903–922. [41] Google Scholar
Howe, E. (1970). Astrology. In Man, myth, & magic: An illustrated encyclopedia of the supernatural (pp. 149–153), R. Cavendish (Ed.). New York: Marshall Cavendish Corporation. [34] Google Scholar
Hsee, C. K. (1995). Elastic justification: How tempting but task-irrelevant factors influence decisions. Organizational Behaviorand Human Decision Processes, 62, 330–337.[23] Google Scholar
Hsee, C. K. (1996a). Elastic justification: How unjustifiable factors influence judgments. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 66, 122–129. [23] Google Scholar
Hsee, C. K. (1996b). The evaluability hypothesis: An explanation for preference reversals between joint and separate evaluations of alternatives. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 67, 242–257. [23] Google Scholar
Hsee, C. K. (1998). Less is better: When low-value options are valued more highly than high-value options. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 11, 107–121. [23] Google Scholar
Hsee, C. K., & Kunreuther, H. (2000). The affection effect in insurance decisions. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 20, 141–159. [23] Google Scholar
Hsee, C. K., & Menon, S. (1999). Affection effect in consumer choices. Unpublished study, University of Chicago. [23] Google Scholar
Hume, D. (1955). An inquiry concerning human understanding. Indianapolis, IN: Bobbs-Merrill. (Originally published 1748) [28] Google Scholar
Hunter, J. E., & Hunter, R. F. (1984). The validity and utility of alternative predictors of job performance. Psychological Bulletin, 96, 72–98. [10] Google Scholar
Huntley, J. (1990). The elements of astrology. Shaftesbury, Dorset, U.K.: Element Books Limited. [34] Google Scholar
Hurd, M., McFadden, D., Chand, H., Gan, L., Merrill, A., & Roberts, M. (1997). Consumption and savings balances of the elderly: Experimental evidence on survey response data. Paper presented at the National Bureau of Economics Research Conference on the Economics of Aging, April, 1997. [6] Google Scholar
Hynes, M., & Vanmarcke, E. (1976). Reliability of Embankment Performance Prediction. Paper presented at the ASCE Engineering Mechanics Division Specialty Conference, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada. [37] Google Scholar
Ichheiser, G. (1949). Misunderstandings in human relations: A study in false social perception. American Journal of Sociology, 55 (Suppl.). [36] Google Scholar
Imada, S., Haidt, J., McCauley C. R., & Rozin, P. (2000). Disgust sensitivity in Japan. (Unpublished data). [11] Google Scholar
Inhelder, B., & Piaget, J. (1958). The growth of logical thinking from childhood to adolescence. New York: Basic Books. [36] Google Scholar
Innes, J. M., & Zeitz, H. (1988). The public's view of the impact of the mass media: A test of the “third person” effect. European Journal of Social Psychology, 18, 457–463. [36] Google Scholar
Institute of Medicine. (1999). Adolescent decision making. Washington, DC: National Academy Press. [41] Google Scholar
Irwin, F. W. (1953). Stated expectations as functions of probability and desirability of outcomes. Journal of Personality, 21, 329–335. [19] Google Scholar
Isaacs, E. A., & Clark, H. H. (1987). References in conversation between experts and novices. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 116, 26–37. [8] Google Scholar
Isen, A. M. (1984). Toward understanding the role of affect in cognition. In Handbook of social cognition (Vol. 3, pp. 179–236), R. S. Wyer, Jr., & T. K. Srull (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. [29] Google Scholar
Isen, A. M. (1987). Positive affect, cognitive processes, and social behavior. In Advances in experimental social psychology (Vol. 20, pp. 203–253), L. Berkowitz (Ed.). New York: Academic Press. [16, 29] Google Scholar
Isen, A. M. (1993). Positive affect and decision making. In Handbook of emotions (pp. 261–277), M. Lewis, & J. M. Haviland (Eds.). New York: Guilford Press. [23] Google Scholar
Isen, A. M., Nygren, T. E., & Ashby F. G. (1988). Influence of positive affect on the subjective utility of gains and losses - it is just not worth the risk. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 55 (5), 710–717. [2] Google Scholar
Isen, A. M., Shalker, T. E., Clark, M. S., & Karp, L. (1978). Affect, accessibility of material in memory, and behavior: A cognitive loop? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 36, 1–12. [29] Google Scholar
Izard, C. E. (1990). Facial expressions and the regulation of emotions. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 58, 487–498. [5] Google Scholar
Jacoby L. L., & Brooks, L. R. (1984). Nonanalytic cognition: Memory, perception, and concept learning. In The psychology of learning and motivation: Advances in research and theory (Vol. 18, pp. 1–47), G. H. Bower (Ed.). New York: Academic Press. [20] Google Scholar
Jacoby, L. L., & Dallas, M. (1981). On the relationship between autobiographical memory and perceptual learning. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 3, 306–340. [2] Google Scholar
Jacowitz, K. E., & Kahneman, D. (1995). Measures of anchoring in estimation tasks. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 21, 1161–1167. [6, 7] Google Scholar
James, W. (1890/1950). The principles of psychology. New York: Dover Publications. [22, 32] Google Scholar
James, W. (1892). Psychology. New York: Holt. [35] Google Scholar
James, W. (1897). The will to believe and other essays in popular philosophy. New York: Longman, Green. [10] Google Scholar
Janis, I. J., & Mann, L. (1977). Decision making: A psychological analysis of conflict, choice, and commitment. New York: Free Press. [21, 32] Google Scholar
Janoff-Bulman, R., & Brickman, P. (1982). Expectations and what people learn from failure. In Expectations and actions: Expectancy-value models in psychology (pp. 207–237), N. T. Feather (Ed.). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. [19] Google Scholar
Jenni, K. E., & Loewenstein, G. (1997). Explaining the “identifiable victim effect.” Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 14(3), 235–258. [23] Google Scholar
Jennings, D., Amabile, T., & Ross, L. (1982). Informal covariation assessment. In Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases, D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.). New York: Cambridge University Press. [1] Google Scholar
Jepson, C., Krantz, D. H., & Nisbett, R. E. (1983). Inductive reasoning: Competence or skill? Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 6, 494–501. [28] Google Scholar
Jervis, R. (1976). Perception and misperception in international politics. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. [8, 42] Google Scholar
Jervis, R. (1992). The future of international politics: Will it resemble the past? International Security, 16, 39–73. [42] Google Scholar
John, R. S., Edwards, W., & Winterfeldt, D. von (n.d.). Equal weights, flat maxima, and trivial decisions. Research Report 80–2Google Scholar
Social Science Research Institute, University of Southern California. [31] Google Scholar
Johnson, E. J., Hershey J., Meszaros, J., & Kunreuther, H. (1993). Framing, probability distortions, and insurance decisions. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 7, 35–51. [25, 27, 30] Google Scholar
Johnson, E. J., & Schkade, D. A. (1989). Bias in utility assessments: Further evidence and explanations. Management Science, 35, 406–424. [6] Google Scholar
Johnson, E. J., & Tversky, A. (1983). Affect generalization and the perception of risk. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 45, 20–31. [21, 23, 29] Google Scholar
Johnson, J. T. (1986). The knowledge of what might have been: Affective and attribu- tional consequences of near outcomes. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 12, 51–62. [35] Google Scholar
Johnson, M. (1987). The body in the mind. The bodily basis of meaning, imagination, and reason. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. [11] Google Scholar
Johnson, M. K., & Sherman, S. J. (1990). Constructing and reconstructing the past and the future in the present. In Handbook of motivation and social cognition: Foundations of social behavior (Vol. 2, pp. 482–526), E. T. Higgins & R. M. Sorrentino (Eds.). New York: Guilford Press. [14] Google Scholar
Johnson-Laird, P. N. (1983). Mental models. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. [22, 41] Google Scholar
Johnson-Laird, P. N., & Byrne, R. M. J. (1991). Deduction. Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. [22] Google Scholar
Johnson-Laird, P. N., & Wason, P. C. (1977). A theoretical analysis of insight into a reasoning task. In Thinking, P. N. Johnson-Laird & P. C. Wason (Eds.). Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [1] Google Scholar
Jones, B. B., & McGillis, D. (1976). Correspondent inference and the attribution cube: A comparative appraisal. In New directions in attribution research (Vol. 1, pp. 389–420), J. Harvey, W. Ickes, & R. Kidd (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. [20] Google Scholar
Jones, E. E. (1979). The rocky road from acts to dispositions. American Psychologist, 34, 107–117. [20,36] Google Scholar
Jones, E. E. (1990). Interpersonal Perception. New York: W. H. Freeman & Co., Publishers. [36] Google Scholar
Jones, E. E., & Davis, K. E. (1965). From acts to dispositions: The attribution process in person perception. In Advances in experimental social psychology (Vol. 2, pp. 219–266), L. Berkowitz (Ed.). New York: Academic Press. [9] Google Scholar
Jones, E. E., & Gerard, H. B. (1967). Foundations of social psychology. New York: Wiley. [16] Google Scholar
Jones, E. E., & Harris, V. A. (1967). The attribution of attitudes. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 3,1–24. [9, 20] Google Scholar
Jones, E. E., & Nisbett, R. E. (1972). The actor and the observer: Divergent perceptions of the causes of behavior. In Attribution: Perceiving the causes of behavior (pp. 79–94), E. E. Jones, D. E. Kanouse, H. H. Kelley, R. E. Nisbett, S. Valins, & B. Weiner (Eds.). Morristown, NJ: General Learning Press. [13,14, 20, 36] Google Scholar
Jones, E. E., Rhodewalt, F, Berglas, S. C., & Skelton, A. (1981). Effects of strategic self-presentation on subsequent self-esteem. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 41, 407–421. [9] Google Scholar
Jones, G. V. (1982). Stacks not fuzzy sets: An ordinal basis for prototype theory of concepts. Cognition, 12, 281–290. [1] Google Scholar
Jonides, J., & Naveh-Benjamin, M. (1987). Estimating frequency of occurrence. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory & Cognition, 13, 230–240. [41] Google Scholar
Joseph, J. G., Montgomery, S., B., Emmons, C. A., Kirscht, J. P., Kessler, R. C, Ostrow, D. G., Wortman, C. B., O'Brien, K., Eller, M., & Eshelman, S. (1987). Perceived risk of AIDS: Assessing the behavioral and psychological consequences in a cohort of gay men. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 17, 231–250. [19] Google Scholar
Jungermann, H. (1986). The two camps on rationality. In Judgment and decision making (pp. 627–641), H. R. Arkes & K. R. Hammond (Eds.). Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [24] Google Scholar
Juslin, P. (1994). The overconfidence phenomenon as a consequence of informal experimenter guided selection of almanac items. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 57, 226–246. [39] Google Scholar
Juslin, P., Olsson, H., & Bjorkman, M. (1997). Brunswikian and Thurstonian origins of bias in probability assessment: On the interpretation of stochastic components of judgment. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 10, 189–209. [39] Google Scholar
Juslin, P., Wennerholm, P., & Olsson, H. (1999). Format dependence in subjective probability calibration. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 25, 1038–1052. [39] Google Scholar
Kahana, E., Kahana, B., Harel, Z., Rosner, T. (1988). Coping with extreme trauma. In Human adaptation to extreme stress: From the Holocaust to Vietnam (pp. 55–79), J. P. Wilson, Z. Harel, & B. Kahana (Eds.), New York: Plenum. [16] Google Scholar
Kahneman, D. (1973). Attention and effort. Englewood-Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall. [9] Google Scholar
Kahneman, D. (1981). Who shall be the arbiter of our intuitions? Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 4, 339–340. [24] Google Scholar
Kahneman, D. (1986). Valuing environmental goods: An assessment of the contingent valuation method. In Valuing environmental goods: An assessment of the contingent valuation method, R. Cummings, D. Brookshire, & W Schulze (Eds.). Totowa, NJ: Rowman and Allanheld. [2] Google Scholar
Kahneman, D. (1991). Judgment and decision making: A person view. Psychological Science, 2, 142–145. [34] Google Scholar
Kahneman, D. (1992). Reference points, anchors, norms, and mixed feelings. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 51, 296–312. [6] Google Scholar
Kahneman, D. (1995). Varieties of counterfactual thinking. In What might have been: The social psychology of counterfactual thinking (pp. 375–396), N. Roese & J. Olson (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. [35] Google Scholar
Kahneman, D. (1997). New challenges to the rationality assumption. Legal Theory, 3, 105–124. [23] Google Scholar
Kahneman, D. (2000a). Evaluation by moments: Past and future. In Choices, values, & Frames, D. Kahneman & A. Tversky (Eds.). Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [30] Google Scholar
Kahneman, D. (2000b). Experienced utility and objective happiness: a moment-based approach. Ch. 37 in Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (Eds.) Choices, Values, and Frames. New York: Cambridge University Press and the Russell Sage Foundation. [2] Google Scholar
Kahneman, D. (2000c). A psychological point of view: Violations of rational rules as a diagnostic of mental processes (Commentary on Stanovich and West). Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 23, 681–683. [2] Google Scholar
Kahneman, D., Fredrickson, B. L., Schreiber, C. A., & Redelemeier, D. A. (1993). When more pain is preferred to less: Adding a better end. Psychological Science, 4, 401–405. [2, 30] Google Scholar
Kahneman, D., & Knetsch, J. (1993). Anchoring or shallow inferences: The effect of format. Unpublished manuscript, University of California, Berkeley. [6] Google Scholar
Kahneman, D., Knetsch, J. L., & Thaler, R. H. (1991). The endowment effect, loss aversion, and status quo bias. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 5, 193–206. [27, 36] Google Scholar
Kahneman, D., & Lovallo, D. (1993). Timid choices and bold forecasts. A cognitive perspective on risk taking. Management Science, 39, 17–31. [13, 14, 36, 39] Google Scholar
Kahneman, D. T., & Miller, D. (1986). Norm theory: Comparing reality to its alternatives. Psychological Review, 93, 136–153. [2, 19, 21, 23, 35] Google Scholar
Kahneman, D., & Ritov, I. (1994). Determinants of stated willingness to pay for public goods: a study in the headline method. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 9, 5–38. [2, 23] Google Scholar
Kahneman, D., Ritov, I., & Schkade, D. (1999). Economic preferences or attitude expressions? An analysis of dollar responses to public issues. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 19, 203–235. [2] Google Scholar
Kahneman, D., Schkade, D. A., & Sunstein, C. R. (1998). Shared outrage and erratic awards: the psychology of punitive damages. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 16, 49–86. [2, 23] Google Scholar
Kahneman, D., Slovic, P., & Tversky, A. (1982). Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [Introduction, 1, 2, 8, 11, 13, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 33, 37] Google Scholar
Kahneman, D., & Snell, J. (1990). Predicting utility. In Insights in decision making (pp. 295–310), R. Hogarth (Ed.). Chicago: University of Chicago Press. [16] Google Scholar
Kahneman, D., & Snell, J. (1992). Predicting a change in taste: Do people know what they will like? Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 5, 187–200. [14, 16, 23] Google Scholar
Kahneman, D., & Tversky A. (1972). Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness. Cognitive Psychology, 3, 430–454. [1, 2, 3, 4, 11, 13, 28] Google Scholar
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1973). On the psychology of prediction. Psychological Review, 80, 237–251. [1, 2, 3, 13, 20, 28, 36, 38, 39] Google Scholar
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979a). Intuitive prediction: Biases and corrective procedures. TIMS Studies in Management Science, 12, 313–327. [14, 19, 25] Google Scholar
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979b). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47, 263–291. [11, 16, 27, 32, 36, 41] Google Scholar
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A (1982). On the study of statistical intuitions. Cognition, 11, 123–141. [Introduction, 1, 2, 27, 28] Google Scholar
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1982a). Intuitive prediction: Biases and corrective procedures. In Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 414–421), D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.). Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [13] Google Scholar
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1982b). The psychology of preferences. Scientific American, 246(1), 160–173. [21, 35] Google Scholar
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1982). The simulation heuristic. In Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 201–208), D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.). Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [14,19, 20, 21,35] Google Scholar
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1982c). Variants of uncertainty. Cognition, 11, 143–157. [1,14, 25] Google Scholar
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1982d). Variants of uncertainty. In Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 509–520), D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.). Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [Introduction] Google Scholar
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1983). Can irrationality be intelligently discussed? Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 6, 509–510. [24] Google Scholar
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1984). Choices, values, and frames. American Psychologist, 39, 341–350. [11,36,40] Google Scholar
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1995). Conflict resolution: A cognitive perspective. In Barriers to Conflict Resolution, K. Arrow et al. (Eds.). Chapter 3. New York: Norton. [39] Google Scholar
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1996). On the reality of cognitive illusions. Psychological Review, 103, 582–591. [2, 24] Google Scholar
Kahneman, D., & Varey C. A. (1990). Propensities and counterfactuals: The loser that almost won. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 59 (6), 1101–1110. [Introduction, 2] Google Scholar
Kahneman, D., Wakker, P. P., & Sarin, R. (1997). Back to Bentham? Explorations of experienced utility. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112, 375–405. [2] Google Scholar
Kammann, R., & Flett, R. (1983). Affectometer 2: A scale to measure current level of general happiness. Australian Journal of Psychology, 35, 257–265. [16] Google Scholar
Kammen, D., & Hassendzahl, D. (1999). Shall we risk it? Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. [41] Google Scholar
Kang, S.-H., O'Brien, J., & Sivaramakrishnan, K. (1994). Analysts' interim earnings forecasts: Evidence on the forecasting process. Journal of Accounting Research, 32, 103–112. [38] Google Scholar
Katz, D. (1960). The functional approach to the study of attitudes. Public Opinion Quarterly, 24, 163–204. [36] Google Scholar
Keane, M. P., & Runkle, D. E. (1998). Are financial analysts' forecasts of corporate profits rational? Journal of Political Economy, 106, 768–805. [38] Google Scholar
Keeney R. L. (1992). Value focused thinking: A path to creative decisionmaking. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. [41] Google Scholar
Keeney, R. L., & Raiffa, H. (1993). Decisions with multiple objectives. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [31] Google Scholar
Keil, F. C. (1989). Concepts, kinds and cognitive development. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. [22] Google Scholar
Keller, J. B. (1985). The probability of heads. American Mathematical Monthly, 93, 191–197. [33] Google Scholar
Kelley C. M., & Jacoby L. L. (1996). Adult egocentrism: Subjective experience versus analytic bases for judgment. Journal of Memory and Language, 35, 157–175. [Introduction] Google Scholar
Kelley, H. H. (1967). Attribution theory in social psychology. In Nebraska Symposium on Motivation (Vol. 15, pp. 192–238), D. Levine (Ed.). Lincoln: University of Nebraska Press. [9, 20] Google Scholar
Kelley, H. H. (1972). Causal schemata and the attribution process. Morristown, NJ: General Learning Press. [29] Google Scholar
Keltner, D., Ellsworth, P., & Edwards, K. (1993a). Beyond simple pessimism: Effects of sadness and anger on social perception. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 64, 740–752. [29] Google Scholar
Keltner, D., Locke, K. D., & Audrain, P. C. (1993b). The influence of attributions on the relevance of negative feelings to satisfaction. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 19, 21–30. [29] Google Scholar
Keren, G. (1987). Facing uncertainty in the game of bridge. A calibration study. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 39, 98–114. [13, 15, 39] Google Scholar
Keren, G. (1988). On the ability of monitoring non-veridical perceptions and uncertain knowledge: Some calibration studies. Acta Psychologica, 67, 95–119. [13, 39] Google Scholar
Keren, G. (1991). Calibration and probability judgments: Conceptual and methodological issues. Acta Psychologica, 77, 217–273. [39] Google Scholar
Keren, G., & Wagenaar, W. A. (1985). On the psychology of playing blackjack: Normative and descriptive considerations with implications for decision theory. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 114, 133–158. [21] Google Scholar
Keynes, J. A. (1921). A treatise on probability. London: Macmillan. [Introduction, 26] Google Scholar
Keysar, B. (1989). On the functional equivalence of literal and metaphorical interpretations in discourse. Journal of Memory and Language, 28, 375–385. [2] Google Scholar
Keysar, B. (1993). Common sense and adult theory of communication. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 16, 54. [8] Google Scholar
Keysar, B. (1994). The illusory transparency of intention: Linguistic perspective taking in text. Cognitive Psychology, 26, 165–208. [8, 36] Google Scholar
Keysar, B. (1998). Language users as problem solvers: just what ambiguity problem do they solve? In Social and cognitive psychological approaches to interpersonal communication (pp. 175–200), S. R. Fussell & R. J. Kreuz (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [8] Google Scholar
Keysar, B. (2000). The illusory transparency of intention: does June understand what Mark means because he means it? Discourse Processes, 29, 161–172. [8] Google Scholar
Keysar, B., Barr, D. J., Balin, J. A., & Brauner, J. S. (2000). Taking perspective in conversation: the role of mutual knowledge in comprehension. Psychological Sciences, 11, 32–38. [8] Google Scholar
Keysar, B., Barr, D. J., Balin, J. A., & Paek, T. S. (1998). Definite reference and mutual knowledge: process models of common ground in comprehension. Journal of Memory and Language, 39, 1–20. [8] Google Scholar
Keysar, B., Barr, D. J., & Horton, W. S. (1998). The egocentric basis of language use: Insights from a processing approach. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 7, 46–50. [8] Google Scholar
Keysar, B., & Bly, B. (1995). Intuitions of the transparency of idioms: Can one keep a secret by spilling the beans? Journal of Memory and Language, 34, 89–109. [7, 8] Google Scholar
Keysar, B., & Bly, B. (1999). Swimming against the current: Do idioms reflect conceptual structure? Journal of Pragmatics, 31, 1559–1578. [8] Google Scholar
Keysar, B., Ginzel, L., & Bazerman, M. H. (1995). States of affairs and states of mind: The effect of knowledge of beliefs. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 64, 283–293. [36] Google Scholar
Keysar, B., & Henly, A. S. (1998). Speakers overestimate the transparency of their intention. In The 39th Annual Meeting of the Psychonomics Society, November. Dallas, TX. [8] Google Scholar
Keysar, B., & Henly A. S. (in press). Speakers' overestimation of their effectiveness. Psychological Science. [8] Google Scholar
Kidd, J. B. (1970). The utilization of subjective probabilities in production planning. Acta Psychologica, 34, 338–347. [13] Google Scholar
Kirkwood, C. W., & Pollock, S. M. (1982). Multiple attribute scenarios, bounded probabilities, and threats of nuclear theft. Futures, 14, 545–553. [1] Google Scholar
Klaaren, K. J., Hodges, S. D., & Wilson, T. D. (1994). The role of affective expectations in subjective experience and decision making. Social Cognition, 12, 77–101. [16,19] Google Scholar
Klahr, D., Fay, A. L., & Dunbar, K. (1993). Heuristics for scientific experimentation: A developmental study. Cognitive Psychology, 25, 111–146. [24] Google Scholar
Klar, Y., & Giladi, E. E. (1997). No one in my group can be below the group's average: A robust positivity bias in favor of anonymous peers. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 73, 885–901. [27] Google Scholar
Klar, Y., & Giladi, E. E. (1999). Are most people happier than their peers, or are they just happy? Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 25, 585–594. [27] Google Scholar
Klar, Y, Medding, A., & Sarel, D. (1996). Nonunique vulnerability: Singular versus distributional probabilities and unrealistic optimism in comparative risk judgments. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 67, 229–245. [27] Google Scholar
Klayman, J., & Ha, Y (1987). Confirmation, disconfirmation, and information in hypothesis testing. Psychological Review, 94, 211–228. [6, 9] Google Scholar
Klayman, J., & Shoemaker, P. J. H. (1993). Thinking about the future: A cognitive perspective. Journal of Forecasting, 12, 161–168. [14] Google Scholar
Klayman, J., Soll, J. B., Gonzales-Vallejo, C., & Barlas, S. (1999). Overconfidence: It depends on how, what, and whom you ask. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 79, 216–247. [39] Google Scholar
Klein, G. (1998). Sources of power: How people make decisions. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. [24, 39] Google Scholar
Klein, S. B., & Loftus, J. (1993). The mental representation of trait and autobiographical knowledge about the self. In Advances in social cognition (Vol. 5, pp. 1–50), T. K. Srull & R. S. Wyer (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. [9] Google Scholar
Kleindorfer, P. R., Kunreuther, H. C, & Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1993). Decision sciences: An integrative perspective. New York: Cambridge University Press. [41] Google Scholar
Koch, S. J., & Loewenstein, G. F. (1989). Outcome feedback: Hindsight and information. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 15(4), 605–619. [41] Google Scholar
Koehler, D. J. (1991). Explanation, imagination, and confidence in judgment. Psychological Bulletin, 110, 499–519. [14] Google Scholar
Koehler, D. J. (1994). Hypothesis generation and confidence in judgment. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 20, 461–469. [6, 25] Google Scholar
Koehler, D. J. (1996). A strength model of probability judgments for tournaments. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 66, 16–21. [27, 39] Google Scholar
Koehler, D. J. (2000). Probability judgment in three-category classification learning. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 26, 28–52. [27] Google Scholar
Koehler, D. J., Brenner, L. A., & Tversky, A. (1997). The enhancement effect in probability judgment. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 10, 293–313. [Introduction, 25, 27, 39] Google Scholar
Koehler, J. (1996). The base-rate fallacy reconsidered: Descriptive, normative, and methodological challenges. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 19, 1–53. [Introduction, 2, 24] Google Scholar
Kopp, R. (1992). Why existence value should be used in cost-benefit analysis. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 11, 123–130. [2] Google Scholar
Koriat, A., Lichtenstein, S., & Fischhoff, B. (1980). Reasons for confidence. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Learning and Memory, 6, 107–118. [5, 6, 13, 14, 15, 37, 39] Google Scholar
Krantz, D. H. (1991). From indices to mappings: The representational approach to measurement. In Frontiers of mathematical psychology: Essays in honor of Clyde Coombs (pp. 1–52), D. R. Brown & E. K. Smith (Eds.). New York: Springer Verlag. [26] Google Scholar
Krantz, D. H., Fong, G. T., & Nisbett, R. E. (1983). Formal training improves the application of statistical heuristics to everyday problems. Unpublished manuscript. Murray Hill, NJ: Bell Laboratories. [28] Google Scholar
Krauss, R. M., & Fussell, S. R. (1991). Perspective-taking in communication: representations of others' knowledge in reference. Social Cognition, 9, 2–24. [8] Google Scholar
Kraut, R. E., & Higgins, E. I. (1984). Communication and social cognition. In Handbook of social cognition (Vol. 3, pp. 81–127), R. S. Wyer & I. K. Srull (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. [20] Google Scholar
Kreps, D. M. (1990). Game theory and economic modeling. Oxford, U.K.: Clarendon Press. [8] Google Scholar
Krieger, L. H. (1995). The content of our categories: A cognitive bias approach to discrimination and equal employment opportunity. Stanford Law Review, 47, 1161–1248. [10] Google Scholar
Krosnick, J. A., Li, F., & Lehman, D. R. (1990). Conversational conventions, order of information acquisition, and the effect of base rates and individuating information on social judgment. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 59, 1140–1152. [2] Google Scholar
Krueger, J. (1998). Enhancement bias in descriptions of self and others. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 24, 505–516. [36] Google Scholar
Krueger, J., & Clement, R. (1994). The truly false consensus effect: An ineradicable and egocentric bias in social perception. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 65, 596–610. [24] Google Scholar
Krueger, J., Ham, J. J., & Linford, K. M. (1996). Perceptions of behavioral consistency: Are people aware of the actor-observer effect? Psychological Science, 7, 259–263. [36] Google Scholar
Krueger, J., & Zeiger, J. S. (1993). Social categorization and the truly false consensus effect. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 65, 670–680. [24, 36] Google Scholar
Kruger, J. (1999). Lake Wobegon be gone! The “below-average effect” and the egocentric nature of comparative ability judgments. Journal of Personality & Social Psychology, 77, 221–232. [6, 7, 27] Google Scholar
Kruger, J., & Dunning, D. (1999). Unskilled and unaware of it: How difficulties in recognizing one's own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 77, 1121–1134. [36] Google Scholar
Kruger, J., & Gilovich, T. (1999). “Naive cynicism” in everyday theories of responsibility assessment: on biased assumptions of bias. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 76, 743–753. [10, 36] Google Scholar
Kruglanski, A., & Webster, D. (1996). Motivated closing of the mind: Seizing and freezing. Psychological Review, 103, 263–278. [42] Google Scholar
Kruglanski, A. W., & Freund, T. (1983). The freezing and unfreezing of lay inferences: Effects on impressional primacy, ethnic stereotyping, and numerical anchoring. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 19, 448–468. [2, 32] Google Scholar
Krull, D. S. (1993). Does the grist change the mill? The effect of the perceiver's inferential goal on the process of social inference. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 19, 340–348. [9] Google Scholar
Krull, D. S., & Erickson, D. J. (1995). On judging situations: The effortful process of taking dispositional information into account. Social Cognition, 13, 417–438. [9] Google Scholar
Kuhberger, A. (1995). The framing of decisions: A new look at old problems. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 62, 230–240. [24] Google Scholar
Kunda, Z. (1987). Motivated inference: Self-serving generation and evaluation of causal theories. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 53, 636–647. [18, 36] Google Scholar
Kunda, Z. (1990). The case for motivated reasoning. Psychological Bulletin, 108, 480–498. [14,16, 27] Google Scholar
Kunda, Z. (1999). Social cognition: Making sense of people. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. [29] Google Scholar
Kunda, Z., Fong, G. T., Sanitioso, R., & Reber, E. (1993). Directional questions direct self-conceptions. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 29, 63–86. [27] Google Scholar
Kyburg, H. E. (1983). Rational belief. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 6 (2), 231–273. [1,24] Google Scholar
La France, M., & Hecht, M. A. (1995). Why smiles generate leniency. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 21, 207–214. [23] Google Scholar
Laitin, D. D. (1993). The game theory of language regimes. International Political Science Review, 14, 227–239. [8] Google Scholar
Lakoff, G. (1972). Hedges: A study in meaning criteria and the logic of fuzzy concepts. In Papers from the Eighth Regional Meeting, Chicago Linguistic Society (pp. 183–228). Chicago: Chicago Linguistic Society. [22] Google Scholar
Lakoff, G. (1982). Categories and cognitive models (Cognitive Science Report No. 2). Berkeley: University of California. [1] Google Scholar
Lakoff, G. (1987). Women, fire, and dangerous things. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. [20] Google Scholar
Lakoff, G., & Johnson, M. (1980). Metaphors we live by. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. [11] Google Scholar
Lakonishok, J., Shleifer, A., & Vishny R. (1994). Contrarian investment, extrapolation, and risk. Journal of Finance, 49, 1541–1578. [38] Google Scholar
Lalljee, M., & Abelson, R. R. (1983). The organization of explanations. In Attribution theory: Social and functional extensions (pp. 65–80), M. Hewstone (Ed.). Oxford, U.K.: Blackwell. [20] Google Scholar
Landman, J. (1987). Regret and elation following action and inaction: Affective responses to positive versus negative outcomes. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 13, 524–536. [20, 21] Google Scholar
Langer, E. J. (1978). Rethinking the role of thought in social interaction. New directions in attribution research. Vol. 2. (Harvey, Ickes, & Kidd, Eds.), Potomac, MD: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [2] Google Scholar
Lanir, Z. (1978). Critical reevaluation of the strategic intelligence methodology. Tel Aviv: Center for Strategic Studies, Tel Aviv University. [41] Google Scholar
LaPiere, R. T. (1934). Attitudes and actions. Social Forces, 13, 230–237. [14] Google Scholar
Larrick, R. P. Morgan, J. N., & Nisbett, R. E. (1990). Teaching the use of cost-benefit reasoning in everyday life. Psychological Science, 1, 362–370. [41] Google Scholar
Larrick, R. P., Nisbett, R. E., & Morgan, J. N. (1993). Who uses the cost-benefit rules of choice? Implications for the normative status of microeconomic theory. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 56, 331–347. [24] Google Scholar
Larrick, R. P., Smith, E. E., & Yates, J. F. (1992, November). Reflecting on the reflection effect: Disrupting the effects of framing through thought. Paper presented at the meetings of the society for Judgment and Decision Making, St. Louis, MO. [24] Google Scholar
Larwood, L. (1978). Swine flu: A field study of self-serving biases. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 18, 283–289. [18] Google Scholar
Larwood, L., & Whittaker, W. (1977). Managerial myopia: Self-serving biasesinorgani-zational planning. Journal of Applied Psychology, 62, 194–198. [18] Google Scholar
Lau, L.-Y., & Ranyard, R. (1999). Chinese and English speakers' linguistic expression of probability and probabilistic thinking. Journal of Cross-Cultural Psychology, 30, 411–421. [15] Google Scholar
Lau, R. R., & Russell, D. (1980). Attributions in the sports pages: A field test of some current hypotheses about attribution research. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 39, 29–38. [35] Google Scholar
Law of averages a reality for ballplayers. (June 7, 1981). Los Angeles Times. Pt. 3, p. 6. [28] Google Scholar
Lay, C. H. (1986). At last, my research article on procrastination. Journal of Research in Personality, 20, 474–495. [14] Google Scholar
Lazarus, R. S. (1985). The costs and benefits of denial. In Stress and coping: An anthology (2nd ed., pp. 154–173), A. Monat & R. S. Lazarus (Eds.), New York: Columbia University Press. [16] Google Scholar
Leary, M. R. (1982). Hindsight distortion and the 1980 Presidential election. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 8, 257–263. [5] Google Scholar
Lee, J. W., Yates, J. F., Shinotsuka, H., Singh, R., Onglatco, M. L. U., Yen, N. S., Gupta, M., & Bhatnagar, D. (1995). Cross-national differences in overconfidence. Asian Journal of Psychology, 1, 63–69. [14, 15] Google Scholar
Leedham, B., Meyerowitz, B. E., Muirhead, J., & Frist, W. H. (1995). Positive expectations predict health after heart transplantation. Health Psychology, 14, 74–79. [19] Google Scholar
Lehman, D. R., Davis, C. G., Delongis, A., Wortman, C. B., Bluck, S. Mandel, D. R., & Ellard, J. H. (1993). Positive and negative life changes following bereavement and their relations to adjustment. Journal of Social and Clinical Psychology, 12, 90–112. [16] Google Scholar
Lehnert, W. (1978). The process of question answering. Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. [20] Google Scholar
Leiss, W. (1996). Three phases in the evolution of risk communication practice. Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 545, 85–94. [41] Google Scholar
Leli, D. A., & Filskov, S. B. (1981). Clinical-actuarial detection and description of brain impairment with the W-B Form I. Journal of Clinical Psychology, 37, 623–629. [40] Google Scholar
Leli, D. A., & Filskov, S. B. (1984). Clinical detection of intellectual deterioration associated with brain damage. Journal of Clinical Psychology, 40, 1435–1441. [40] Google Scholar
Lerner, J., & Tetlock, P. E. (1999). Accounting for the effects of accountability. Psychological Bulletin, 125, 255–275. [32] Google Scholar
Lerner, J. S., Goldberg, J. H., & Tetlock, P. E. (1998). Sober second thought: The effects of accountability, anger and authoritarianism on attributions of responsibility. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 24, 563–574. [32] Google Scholar
Lerner, M. J. (1980). The belief in a just world: A fundamental delusion. New York: Plenum. [20] Google Scholar
Lerner, M. J., & Miller, D. I. (1978). Just world research and the attribution process: Looking back and ahead. Psychological Bulletin, 85, 1030–1051. [20] Google Scholar
Leslie, A. M. (1987). Pretence and representation: The origins of “theory of mind.” Psychological Review, 94, 412–426. [8] Google Scholar
Levelt, W. J. M. (1989). Speaking: from intention to articulation. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.[8] Google Scholar
Leventhal, H. (1970). Findings and theory in the study of fear communications. In Advances in experimental social psychology (Vol. 5), L. Berkowitz (Ed.), New York: Academic Press. [4] Google Scholar
Leventhal, H., Diefenbach, M., & Leventhal, E. A. (1992). Illness cognition. Cognitive Therapy and Research, 16, 143–163. [41] Google Scholar
Levi, A. S., & Pryor, J. B. (1987). Use of the availability heuristic in probability estimates of future events: The effects of imagining outcomes versus imagining reasons. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 40, 219–234. [17] Google Scholar
Levi, I. (1983). Who commits the base rate fallacy? Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 6, 502–506. [24] Google Scholar
Levin, I. P., Schnittjer, S. K., & Thee, S. L. (1988). Information framing effects in social and personal decisions. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 24, 520–529. [6] Google Scholar
Levinson, S. C. (1995). Interactional biases in human thinking. In Social intelligence and interaction (pp. 221–260), E. Goody (Eds.). Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [24] Google Scholar
Lewis, D. K. (1973). Counterfactuals. Cambridge: Harvard University Press. [20,42] Google Scholar
Liberman, N., & Trope, Y. (1998). The role of feasibility and desirability considerations in near and distant future decisions: A test of temporal construal theory. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 75, 5–18. [14] Google Scholar
Liberman, V., & Tversky A. (1993). On the evaluation of probability judgments: Calibration, resolution, and monotonicity Psychological Bulletin, 114, 162–173. [39] Google Scholar
Lichtenstein, S., & Fischhoff, B. (1977). Do those who know more also know more about how much they know? The calibration of probability judgments. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 20, 159–183. [13,15, 41] Google Scholar
Lichtenstein, S., Fischhoff, B., & Phillips, L. (1982). Calibration and probabilities: The state of the art to 1980. In Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 306–334), D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.). Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [13,14,15, 24, 25, 27, 37, 41] Google Scholar
Lichtenstein, S., & Slovic, P. (1971). Reversals of preference between bids and choices in gambling decisions. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 89, 46–55. [6, 7,12, 23] Google Scholar
Lichtenstein, S., & Slovic, P. (1973). Response-induced reversals of preference in gambling: An extended replication in Las Vegas. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 101, 16–20. [23] Google Scholar
Lichtenstein, S., Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B., Layman, M., & Combs, B. (1978). Judged frequency of lethal events. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Learning and Memory, 4, 551–578. [4,19, 23, 41] Google Scholar
Lim, T. (2001). Rationality and analysts' forecast bias. Journal of Finance, 56, 369–385. [38] Google Scholar
Lindley D. V., Tversky, A., & Brown, R. V. (1979). On the reconciliation of probability assessments. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 142, 146–180. [1, 25] Google Scholar
Linville, P. W., Fischer, G. W., & Salovey P. (1989). Perceived distributions of the characteristics of in-group and out-group members: Empirical evidence and a computer simulation. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 57, 165–188. [36] Google Scholar
Lipschitz, R. (1983). Knowing and practicing: Teaching behavioral sciences at the Israel Defense Forces Command and General Staff College. Journal of Management Studies, 20, 121–140. [41] Google Scholar
Locke, E. A., & Latham, G. P. (1990). A theory of goal setting and task performance. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall. [14] Google Scholar
Loewenstein, G. (1987). Anticipation and the valuation of delayed consumption. Economic Journal, 97, 666–684. [23] Google Scholar
Loewenstein, G. (1996). Out of control: Visceral influences on behavior. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 65, 272–292. [14, 30] Google Scholar
Loewenstein, G. (1999). A visceral account of addiction. In Getting hooked: Rationality and addiction, J. Elster & O. J. Skog (Eds.). Cambridge, U. K.: Cambridge University Press. [23] Google Scholar
Loewenstein, G. & Adler, D. (1995). A bias in the prediction of tastes. Economic Journal, 105, 929–937. [16, 30] Google Scholar
Loewenstein, G., & Frederick, S. (1997). Predicting reactions to environmental change. In Environment, ethics, and behavior: The psychology of environmental valuation and degradation (pp. 52–72), M. H. Bazerman, D. M., Messick, A. E., Tenbrunsel, & K. A. Wade-Benzoni, (Eds.). San Francisco: The New Lexington Press. [14,16] Google Scholar
Loewenstein, G., Nagin, D., & Paternoster, R. (1997). The effect of sexual arousal on expectations of sexual forcefulness. Journal of Research in Crime & Delinquency, 34 (4). 443–473. [30] Google Scholar
Loewenstein, G., Prelec, D., & Shatto, C. (1998). Hot/cold empathy gaps and the underprediction of curiosity. Working paper (Carnegie Mellon University). [30] Google Scholar
Loewenstein, G., & Schkade, D. (1999). Wouldn't it be nice? Predicting future feelings. In Well-being: The foundations of hedonic psychology (pp. 85–105), D. Kahneman, E. Diener, & N. Schwarz (Eds.). New York: Russell Sage Foundation Press. [14,16,23] Google Scholar
Loewenstein, G., Weber, E., Hsee, C, & Welch, N. (2001). Risk as feelings. Psychological Bulletin, 127, 267–286. [23, 30] Google Scholar
Loffler, G. (1998). Biases in analysts' forecasts: Cognitive, strategic or second-best? International Journal of Forecasting, 14, 261–275. [38] Google Scholar
Loftus, E. (1975). Leading questions and the eyewitness report. Cognitive Psychology, 7, 560–572. [27] Google Scholar
Loftus, E. F, & Wagenaar, W. A. (1988). Lawyers' Predictions of Success. Jurimetrics, 28, 437. [39] Google Scholar
Logan, G. D. (1988). Toward an instance theory of automatization. Psychological Review, 95, 492–527. [22] Google Scholar
Loomes, G. (1988). Further evidence of the impact of regret and disappointment in choice and uncertainty. Economica, 55, 47–62. [21] Google Scholar
Loomes, G., & Sugden, R. (1982). Regret theory: An alternative theory of rational choice under uncertainty. Economic Journal, 92, 805–824. [21] Google Scholar
Loomes, G., & Sugden, R. (1987a). Some implications of a more general form of regret theory. Journal of Economic Theory, 41, 270–287. [21] Google Scholar
Loomes, G., & Sugden, R. (1987b). Testing for regret and disappointment in choice under uncertainty. Economic Journal, 97, 118–129. [21] Google Scholar
Lopes, L. L. (1982a). Doing the impossible: A note on induction and the experience of randomness. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 8, 626–636. [24, 28] Google Scholar
Lopes, L. L. (1982b). Toward a procedural theory of judgment. ONR final report, University of Wisconsin. [6] Google Scholar
Lopes, L. L., & Oden, G. C. (1991). The rationality of intelligence. In Probability and rationality: Studies on L. Jonathan Cohen's philosophy of science (pp. 199–223), E. Eells & T. Maruszewski (Eds.). Amsterdam: Editions Rodopi. [24] Google Scholar
Lord, C. G., Lepper, M. R., & Preston, E. (1984). Considering the opposite: A corrective strategy for social judgment. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 47, 1231–1243. [6, 10, 14] Google Scholar
Lord, C. G., Lepper, M. R., & Mackie, D. (1984a). Attitude prototypes as determinants of attitude-behavior consistency. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 46, 1254–1266. [14] Google Scholar
Lord, C. G., Ross, L., & Lepper, M. R. (1979). Biased assimilation and attitude polarization: The effects of prior theories on subsequently considered evidence. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 37, 2098–2109. [18, 27, 36] Google Scholar
Lovie, P. (1985). A note on an unexpected anchoring bias in intuitive statistical inference. Cognition, 21, 69–72. [6] Google Scholar
Lowrance, W. W. (1976). Of acceptable risk: Science and the determination of safety. Los Altos, CA: William Kaufman. [41] Google Scholar
Lubinski, D., & Humphreys, L. G. (1997). Incorporating general intelligence into epidemiology and the social sciences. Intelligence, 24, 159–201. [24] Google Scholar
Luce, M., Bettman, J., & Payne, J. W. (1997). Choice processing in emotionally difficult decisions. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 23, 384–405. [29] Google Scholar
Lusted, L. B. (1977). A study of the efficacy of diagnostic radiologic procedures: Final report on diagnostic efficacy. Chicago: Efficacy Study Committee of the American College of Radiology. [13] Google Scholar
Lycan, W. G. (1981). “Is” and “ought” in cognitive science. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 4, 344–345. [28] Google Scholar
Lyon, D., & Slovic, P. (1976). Dominance of accuracy information and neglect of base rates in probability estimation. Acta Psychologica, 40, 287–298. [24] Google Scholar
Macchi, L. (1995). Pragmatic aspects of the base-rate fallacy. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 48A, 188–207. [Introduction, 2, 24] Google Scholar
Macchi, L., Osherson, D., & Krantz, D. H. (1999). A note on superadditive probability judgment. Psychological Review, 106, 210–214. [27] Google Scholar
Macchi, L., Osherson, D., & Legrenzi, P. (1995, November). Superadditivity with complementary pairs of hypotheses. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making, Los Angeles. [26] Google Scholar
Macdonald, R. R., & Gilhooly, K. J. (1990). More about Linda or conjunctions in context. European Journal of Cognitive Psychology, 2, 57–70. [24] Google Scholar
MacGregor, D. G., Slovic, P., Dreman, D., & Berry, M. (2000). Imagery, affect, and financial judgment. Journal of Psychology and Financial Markets, 1 (2), 104- 110. [23] Google Scholar
Mackie, D. M., & Worth, L. T. (1989). Cognitive deficits and the mediation of positive affect in persuasion. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 57, 27–40. [29] Google Scholar
Mackie, J. L. (1974). The cement of the universe: A study of causation. Oxford, U.K.: Clarendon Press. [20] Google Scholar
MacLeod, C. M. (1991). Half a century of research on the Stroop effect: An integrative review. Psychological Bulletin, 109, 163–203. [6] Google Scholar
Macrae, C. N., Milne, A. B., & Bodenhausen, G. V. (1994). Stereotypes as energy-saving devices: A peek inside the cognitive toolbox. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 66, 37–47. [29] Google Scholar
Madsen, J. B. (1994). Tests of rationality versus an “over optimist” bias. Journal of Economic Psychology, 15(4), 587–599. [39] Google Scholar
Maher, P. (1993). Betting on theories. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [24] Google Scholar
Maines, L. A., & Hand, J. R. M. (1996). Individuals' perceptions and misperceptions of time series properties of quarterly earnings. Accounting Review, 71, 317–336. [38] Google Scholar
Malkiel, B. (1990). A random walk down Wall Street. New York: Norton. [42] Google Scholar
Malsch, M. (1989). Lawyers' predictions of judicial decisions. Doctoral thesis, University of Leiden, The Netherlands. [39] Google Scholar
Mandler, G., Hamson, C, & Dorfman, J. (1990). Tests of dual process theory - word priming and recognition. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 42(4), 713- 739. [2] Google Scholar
Manis, M., Dovalina, I., Avis, N. E., & Cardoze, S. (1980). Base rates can affect individual predictions. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 38, 321–248. [41] Google Scholar
Manktelow, K. I., & Evans, J. St. B. T. (1979). Facilitation of reasoning by realism: Effect or non-effect? British Journal of Psychology, 70, 477–488. [24] Google Scholar
Manktelow, K. I., & Over, D. E. (1991). Social roles and utilities in reasoning with deontic conditionals. Cognition, 39, 85–105. [24] Google Scholar
Maoz, I., Ward, A., Katz, M., & Ross, L. (2000). Reactive devaluation of an “Israeli” vs. “Palestinian” peace proposal. Unpublished manuscript, Stanford University. [36] Google Scholar
March, J. G. (1988). Bounded rationality, ambiguity, and the engineering of choice. In Decision making: Descriptive, normative, and prescriptive interactions (pp. 33–57), D. Bell, H. Raiffa, & A. Tversky (Eds.). Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [24] Google Scholar
March, J. G., & Olsen, J. P. (1989). Rediscovering institutions. New York: Free Press. [32] Google Scholar
March, J. G., & Olsen, J. P. (1995). Democratic governance. New York: Free Press. [32] Google Scholar
Margolis, H. (1987). Patterns, thinking, and cognition. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. [24] Google Scholar
Markman, A. B., & Gentner, D. (1993). Structural alignment during similarity comparisons. Cognitive Psychology, 25, 431–467. [22] Google Scholar
Markman, K. D., Gavanski, I., Sherman, S. J., & McMullen, M. N. (1993). The mental simulation of better and worse possible worlds. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 29, 87–109. [35] Google Scholar
Markovits, H., & Vachon, R. (1989). Reasoning with contrary-to-fact propositions. Journal of Experimental Child Psychology, 47, 398–412. [24] Google Scholar
Marks, R. W. (1951). The effect of probability, desirability and privilege on the stated expectations of children. Journal of Personality, 19, 431–465. [19] Google Scholar
Markus, H. R. (1977). Self-schemata and processing of information about the self. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 35, 63–78. [5, 9] Google Scholar
Marlatt, G. A. (1978). Craving for alcohol, loss of control, and relapse: a cognitive behavioral analysis. In Alcoholism: new directions in behavioral research and treatment, P. E. Nathan, G. A. Marlatt, & T. Loberg (Eds.). New York: Plenum. [4] Google Scholar
Martignon, L., Hoffrage, U., & Kriegeskorte, N. (1997). Lexicographic comparison under uncertainty: A satisficing cognitive algorithm. Submitted for publication. [31] Google Scholar
Martignon, L., & Laskey K. (in press). Laplace's Demon meets Simon: The role of rationality in a world of bounded resources. In Simple heuristics that make us smart, G. Gigerenzer, P. Todd, & the ABC group (Eds.). New York: Oxford University Press. [31] Google Scholar
Martin, L. L. (1986). Set/reset: use and disuse of concepts in impression formation. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 51, 493–504. [10] Google Scholar
Martin, L. L., Abend, T., Sedikides, C., & Green, J. D. (1997). How would it feel if …? Mood as input to a role fulfillment evaluation process. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 73, 242–253. [29] Google Scholar
Martin, L. L., & Clore, G. L. (Eds.) (2001). Theories of mood and cognition: A user's handbook. Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum. [29] Google Scholar
Martin, L. L., Harlow, T. F., & Strack, F. (1992). The role of bodily sensations in the evaluation of social events. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 18, 412–419. [7] Google Scholar
Martin, L. L., Seta, J. J., & Crelia, R. A. (1990). Assimilation and contrast as a function of people's willingness and ability to expend effort in forming an impression. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 59, 27–37. [22] Google Scholar
Martin, L. L., & Stapel, D. A. (1998). Correction and metacognition: are people naive dogmatists or naive empiricist during social judgments? In Metacognition: cognitive and social dimensions (pp. 228–247), V. Yzerbyt, G. Lories, & B. Dardenne (Eds.). New York: Sage. [10] Google Scholar
Martin, L. L., Ward, D. W., Achee, J. W., & Wyer, R. S. (1993). Mood as input: People have to interpret the motivational implications of their moods. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 64, 317–326. [29] Google Scholar
Martin, W. B., Apostolakos, P. C, & Roazen, H. (1960). Clinical versus actuarial prediction in the differential diagnosis of jaundice. A study of the relative accuracy of predictions made by physicians and by a statistically derived formula in differentiating parenchymal and obstructive jaundice. American Journal of Medical Science, 240, 571–578. [40] Google Scholar
Masur, F. T. (1981). Adherence to health care regimens. In Medical psychology: Contributions to behavioral medicine, C. Prokop & L. A. Bradley (Eds.). New York: Academic Press.[4] Google Scholar
Mauss, M. (1902/1972). A general theory of magic (R. Brain, Trans.), (Esquisse d'une theorie generale de la magie. L'Annee Sociologique) New York: W. W. Norton. (Original work published 1902.) [11] Google Scholar
May, R. M. (1986). Inferences, subjective probability, and frequency of correct answers: A cognitive approach to the overconfidence phenomenon. In New directions in research on decision making (pp. 175–189), B. Brehmer, H. Jungermann, P. Lourens, & A. Sevoaan (Eds.). Amsterdam: North-Holland. [13,39] Google Scholar
Mayer, J. D., Gaschke, Y. N., Braverman, D. L., & Evans, T. W. (1992). Mood-congruent recall is a general effect. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 63, 119–132. [29] Google Scholar
McAllister, D. W., Mitchell, T. R., & Beach, L. R. (1979). The contingency model for the selection of decision strategies: An empirical test of the effects of significance, accountability, and reversibility. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 24, 228–244. [32] Google Scholar
McArthur, L. A. (1972). The how and what of why: Some determinants and consequences of causal attribution. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 22, 171–193. [20] Google Scholar
McClelland, A. G. R., & Bolger, F. (1994). The calibration of subjective probabilities: Theories and models 1980–94. In Subjective probability (pp. 453–482), G. Wright & P. Ayton (Eds.). Chichester, U.K.: Wiley. [27] Google Scholar
McClelland, J. L., & Rumelhart, D. E. (1985). Distributed memory and the representation of general and specific information. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 114, 159–188. [20, 22] Google Scholar
McCrae, R. R., & Costa, P. T. Jr. (1994). The stability of personality: Observations and evaluations. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 6, 173–175. [16] Google Scholar
McFadden, D. (1999). Rationality for economists? Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 19, 73–105. [Introduction] Google Scholar
McFadden, D., & Leonard, G. K. (1993). Issues in the contingent valuation of environmental gods: methodologies for data collection and analysis. In Contingent valuation. A critical assessment, Hausman (Ed.). Amsterdam: North-Holland. [2] Google Scholar
McGeorge, P., Crawford, J., & Kelly, S. (1997). The relationships between psychometric intelligence and learning in an explicit and an implicit task. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 23, 239–245. [24] Google Scholar
McGlothlin, W. H. (1956). Stability of choices among uncertain alternatives. American Journal of Psychology, 69, 604–615. [13] Google Scholar
McGregor, D. (1938). The major determinants of the prediction of social events. Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 33, 179–204. [19] Google Scholar
McKenzie, C. R. M. (1998). Taking into account the strength of an alternative hypothesis. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 24, 771–792. [27] Google Scholar
McKenzie, C. R. M. (1999). (Non) complementary updating of belief in two hypotheses. Memory & Cognition, 27, 152–165. [27] Google Scholar
McNeil, B. J., Pauker, S. G., Sox, H. C., & Tversky, A. (1982). On the elicitation ofprefer-ences for alternative therapies. New England Journal of Medicine, 306, 1259–1262. [27] Google Scholar
Mead, G. H. (1934). Mind, self, and society. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. [32, 36] Google Scholar
Mearsheimer, J. J. (1990). Back to the future: Instability in Europe after the Cold War. International Security, 15, 5–56. [42] Google Scholar
Medcof, J. W. (1990). PEAT: An integrative model of attribution processes. In M. P. Zanna (Ed.). Advances in experimental social psychology, 23, 111–209. [9] Google Scholar
Medin, D. L., Goldstone, R. L., & Gentner, D. (1993). Respects for similarity. Psychological Review, 100, 254–278. [22] Google Scholar
Medin, D. L., & Ross, B. H. (1997). Cognitive psychology (2nd ed.). Fort Worth: Harcourt Brace. [5] Google Scholar
Medin, D. L., & Schaffer, M. M. (1978). Context theory of classification learning. Psychological Review, 85, 207–238. [20] Google Scholar
Meehl, P. (1990). Appraising and amending theories: The strategy of Lakatosian defense and two principles that warrant it. Psychology Inquiry, 1, 108–141. [32] Google Scholar
Meehl, P. E. (1954). Clinical versus statistical prediction. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press. [Introduction, 40] Google Scholar
Meehl, P. E. (1957). When shall we use our heads instead of the formula? Journal of Counseling Psychology, 4, 268–273. [40] Google Scholar
Meehl, P. E. (1959). A comparison of clinicians with five statistical methods of identifying psychotic MMPI profiles. Journal of Counseling Psychology, 6, 102–109. [40] Google Scholar
Meehl, P. E. (1967). Wanted - A good cookbook. In Problems in human assessment (pp. 529–540), D. N. Jackson & S. Messick (Eds.). New York: McGraw-Hill. [40] Google Scholar
Meehl, P. E. (1973). Psychodiagnosis: Selected papers. Minneapolis, MN: University of Minnesota Press. [40] Google Scholar
Meehl, P. E. (1986). Causes and effects of my disturbing little book. Journal of Personality Assessment, 50, 370–375. [40] Google Scholar
Mehle, T., Gettys, C. F., Manning, C, Baca, S., & Fisher, S. (1981). The availability explanation of excessive plausibility assessment. Acta Psychologica, 49, 127–140. [25] Google Scholar
Meichenbaum, D. H., & Goodman, J. (1971). Training impulsive children to talk to themselves: a means of developing self-control. Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 77, 115–126. [4] Google Scholar
Meigs, A. S. (1984). Food, sex, and pollution: A New Guinea religion. New Brunswick, NJ: Rutgers University Press. [11,34] Google Scholar
Mellers, B., Hertwig, R., & Kahneman, D. (2001). Do frequency representations eliminate conjunction effects? An exercise in adversarial collaboration. Forthcoming in Psychological Science. [2] Google Scholar
Mellers, B. A., Richards, V., & Birnbaum, J. H. (1992). Distributional theories of impression formation. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 51, 313–343. [23] Google Scholar
Mervis, C. B., & Rosch, E. (1981). Categorization of natural objects. Annual Review of Psychology, 32, 89–115. [1] Google Scholar
Merz, J., Fischhoff, B., Mazur, D. J., & Fischbeck, PS. (1993). Decision-analytic approach to developing standards of disclosure for medical informed consent. Journal of Toxics and Liability, 15, 191–215. [41] Google Scholar
Messer, W. S., & Griggs, R. A. (1993). Another look at Linda. Bulletin of the Psychonomic Society, 31, 193–196. [24] Google Scholar
Messick, D. M. (1993). Equality as a decision heuristic. In Psychological prespectives on Justice, B. A. Mellers & J. Baron (Eds.). New York: Cambridge University Press. [30] Google Scholar
Michaely R., & Womack, K. (1999). Conflict of interest and the credibility of underwriter analyst recommendations. Review of Financial Studies, 12, 653–686. [38] Google Scholar
Michotte, A. (1963). The perception of causality. New York: Basic Books. [Introduction, 2] Google Scholar
Mikhail, M., Walther, B., & Willis, R. (1997). Do security analysts improve their performance with experience? Journal of Accounting Research, 35, 131–157. [38] Google Scholar
Mill, J. S. (1974). A system of logic ratiocinative and inductive. Toronto, Ontario: University of Toronto Press. (Originally published 1843.) [28] Google Scholar
Miller, A. G., Baer, R., & Schenberg, R. (1979). The bias phenomenon in attitude attribution: Actor and observer perspectives. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 37, 1421–1431. [20] Google Scholar
Miller, D. T. (1981, August). Changes over time in the selection of causes and the definitions of effects. Paper presented at the meeting of the American Psychological Association, Los Angeles. [20] Google Scholar
Miller, D. T., & Gunasegaram, S. (1990). Temporal order and the perceived mutability of events: Implications for blame assignment. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 59, 1111–1118. [21] Google Scholar
Miller, D. T., & McFarland, C. (1986). Counterfactual thinking and victim compensation: A test of norm theory. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 12, 513–519. [20, 21, 35] Google Scholar
Miller, D. T., & Ratner, R. K. (1998). The disparity between the actual and assumed power of self-interest. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 74, 53–62. [36] Google Scholar
Miller, D. T., & Ross, M. (1975). Self-serving biases in the attribution of causality: Fact or fiction? Psychological Bulletin, 82, 213–225. [Introduction, 14,19] Google Scholar
Miller, D. T., & Turnbull, W. (1990). The counterfactual fallacy: Confusing what might have been with what ought to have been. Social Justice Research, 4, 1–19. [21] Google Scholar
Miller, D. T., Turnbull, W., & McFarland, C. (1990). Counterfactual thinking and social perception: Thinking about what might have been. In Advances in experimental social psychology (Vol. 23, pp. 305–331), M. P. Zanna (Ed.). New York: Academic Press. [21, 35] Google Scholar
Miller, G. A., Galanter, E., & Pribram, K. H. (1960). Plans and the structure of behavior. New York: Holt, Rinchart & Winston. [31] Google Scholar
Miller, G. A., & Cantor, N. (1982). Book review of Nisbett, R., & Ross, L. Human inference: Strategies and shortcomings of social judgment. Social Cognition, 1, 83–93. [28] Google Scholar
Miller, N. E., & Dollard, J. (1946). Social learning and imitation. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press. [32] Google Scholar
Mills, C. W. (1959). The sociological imagination. New York: Oxford University Press. [41] Google Scholar
Mischel, W., Cantor, N., & Feldman, S. (1996). Principles of self-regulation: The nature of willpower and self-control. In Social psychology: Handbook of basic principles (pp. 329–360), E. T Higgins & A. W. Kruglanski (Eds.). New York: Guilford. [16] Google Scholar
Mita, T. H., Dermer, M., & Knight, J. (1997). Reversed facial images and the mere exposure hypothesis. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 35, 597- 601. [30] Google Scholar
Mitchell, R., & Carson, R. (1989). Using surveys to value public goods: the contingent valuation method. Washington, DC: Resources for the Future. [2] Google Scholar
Mitchell, T. R., & Thompson, L. (1994). A theory of temporal adjustments of the evaluation of events: Rosy prediction and rosy retrospection. Advances in Managerial Cognition and Organizational Information Processes, 5, 85–114. [16] Google Scholar
Mitchell, T. R., Thompson, L., Peterson, E., & Cronk, R. (1997). Temporal adjustments in the evaluation of events: The “rosy view.” Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 33, 421–448. [19] Google Scholar
Monat, A., Averill, J. R., & Lazarus, R. S. (1972). Anticipatory stress and coping reactions under various conditions of uncertainty. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 24, 237–253. [30] Google Scholar
Mongin, P. (1994). Some connections between epistemic logic and the theory of nonadditive probability. In Patrick Suppes: Scientific philosopher, P. W. Humphreys (Ed.). Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Kluwer. [25] Google Scholar
Monson, I. C, & Snyder, M. (1977). Actors, observers and the attribution process: Toward a reconceptualization. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 13, 89–111. [20] Google Scholar
Montgomery, H. (1983). Decision rules and the search for a dominance structure: Towards a process model of decision making. In Analysing and aiding decision processes (pp. 343–369), P. Humphreys, O. Svenson & A. Vari (Eds.). Amsterdam: North Holland. [23] Google Scholar
Montgomery, S. B., Joseph, J. G., Becker, M. H., Ostrow, D. G., Kessler, R. C, & Kirscht, J. P. (1989). The health belief model in understanding compliance with preventative recommendations for AIDS: How useful? AIDS Education and Prevention, 1, 303–323. [19] Google Scholar
Moore, D. A., Kurtzberg, T. R., Fox, C. R., Bazerman, M. H. (1999). Positive illusions and forecasting errors in mutual fund investment decisions. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 79, 95–114. [38] Google Scholar
Morgan, M. G., Fischhoff, B., Bostrom, A., & Atman, C. (2001). Risk communication: The mental models approach. New York: Cambridge University Press. [41] Google Scholar
Morgan, M. G., Henrion, M., & Morris, S. C. (1981). BNL No. 51358, Brookhaven National Laboratory. [37] Google Scholar
Morgan, M. G., Henrion, M., & Morris, S. C. (1984). Technical Uncertainty in Quantitative Policy Analysis - A Sulfur Air Pollution Example. Risk Analysis, 4, 201–216. [37] Google Scholar
Morgan, M. G., & Henrion, M. (1990). Uncertainty: A guide to dealing with uncertainty in quantitative risk and policy analysis. New York: Cambridge University Press. [41] Google Scholar
Morgan, M. G., & Keith, D. W. (1995). Subjective judgments by climate experts. Environmental Science and Technology, 29, 468A-476A. [41] Google Scholar
Morier, D. M., & Borgida, E. (1984). The conjunction fallacy: A task specific phenomenon? Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 10, 243–252. [3] Google Scholar
Morris, M. W., & Su, S. K. (1999). The hostile mediator phenomenon: Egocentric standards of fairness lead disputants to see mediators as favoring the opponent. Unpublished manuscript, Stanford University. [36] Google Scholar
Morris, M., Heath, C., & Jost, J. (1999). Agency misattributions and the curse of knowledge. Working paper, Stanford University. [36] Google Scholar
Morris, P. (1997). Communities of assent and descent. Massah; Journey. Journal of the New Zealand Council of Christians and Jews, 3 (Winter), 2–4. [11] Google Scholar
Morris, W. N. (1989). Mood: The frame of mind. New York: Springer Verlag. [29] Google Scholar
Morwitz, V. G., Johnson, E., & Schmittlein, D. (1993). Does measuring intent change behavior? Journal of Consumer Research, 20, 46–61. [19] Google Scholar
Moshman, D., & Franks, B. (1986). Development of the concept of inferential validity. Child Development, 57, 153–165. [24] Google Scholar
Mowrer, O. H. (1960a). Learning theory and behavior. New York: Wiley. [23] Google Scholar
Mowrer, O. H. (1960b). Learning theory and the symbolic processes. New York: Wiley. [23] Google Scholar
Moynihan, D. P. (1993). Pandemonium. New York: Oxford University Press. [42] Google Scholar
Murphy, A. H. (1973). A new vector partition of the probability score. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 12, 595–600. [15] Google Scholar
Murphy, A. H. (1981). Subjective quantification of uncertainty in weather forecasts in the United States. Meteorolgische Rudschau, 34, 65–77. [39] Google Scholar
Murphy, A. H. (1985). Probabilistic weather forecasting. In Probability, statistics, and decision making in the atmospheric sciences (pp. 337–377), A. H. Murphy & R. W. Katz (Eds.). Boulder, CO: Westview Press. [25] Google Scholar
Murphy, A. H., & Brown, B. G. (1984). A comparative evaluation of objective and subjective weather forecasts in the United States. Journal of Forecasting, 3, 369–393. [39] Google Scholar
Murphy, A. H., & Daan, H. (1984). Impacts of feedback and experience on the quality of subjective probability forecasts: Comparison of results from the first and second years of the Zierikzee experiment. Monthly Weather Review, 112, 413–423. [39] Google Scholar
Murphy, A. H., & Katz, R. W. (Eds.). (1983). Probability, Statistics and Decision-Making in the Atmospheric Sciences. Boulder, CO: Westview Press. [37] Google Scholar
Murphy, A. H., & Winker, R. L. (1977a). Can weather forecasters formulate reliable probability forecasts of precipitation and temperature? National Weather Digest, 2, 2–9. [13, 41] Google Scholar
Murphy, A. H., & Winkler, R. L. (1977b). Reliability of subjective probability forecasts of precipitation and temperature. Applied Statistics, 26, 41–47. [39] Google Scholar
Murphy, A. H., & Winkler, R. L. (1984a). Probability forecasting in meteorology. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 79, 489–500. [39] Google Scholar
Murphy, A. H., & Winkler, R. L. (1984b). Probability of precipitation forecasts: A review. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 79, 391–400. [41] Google Scholar
Murphy, A. H., & Winkler, R. L. (1992). Diagnostic verification of probability forecasts. International Journal of Forecasting, 7, 435–455. [39] Google Scholar
Murphy, G. L. (1993). Theories and concept formation. In Categories and concepts: Theoretical views and inductive data analysis (pp. 173–200), I. Van Mechelen, J. Hampton, R. Michalski, & P. Theuns (Eds.). London: Academic Press. [22] Google Scholar
Murphy, R. (1994). The effects of task characteristics on covariation assessment: The impact of accountability and judgment frame. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 60, 139–155. [32] Google Scholar
Mussweiler, T., & Strack, F. (1999). Hypothesis-consistent testing and semantic priming in the anchoring paradigm: A selective accessibility model. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 35, 136–164. [Introduction, 6,7, 29] Google Scholar
Mussweiler, T., & Strack, F. (2000a). Comparing is believing: a selective accessibility model of judgmental anchoring. In European Review of Social Psychology, (Vol. 10, pp. 135–167), W. Stroebe & M. Hewstone (Eds.). Chichester, U.K.: Wiley. [6] Google Scholar
Mussweiler, T., & Strack, F (2000b). The use of category and exemplar knowledge in the solution of anchoring tasks. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 78, 1038–1052. [7] Google Scholar
Mussweiler, T., Strack, F, & Pfeiffer, T. (2000). Overcoming the inevitable anchoring effect: considering the opposite compensates for selective accessibility. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 26, 1142–1150. [6] Google Scholar
Nathanson, S. (1994). The ideal of rationality. Chicago: Open Court. [24] Google Scholar
National Academy of Sciences (1983). Priority Mechanisms for Toxic Chemicals, National Academy, (Washington, DC) [37] Google Scholar
National Research Council (1989). Improving risk communication. Washington, DC: National Academy Press. [41] Google Scholar
National Research Council (1996). Understanding risk. Washington, DC: The Council. [41] Google Scholar
Neale, M. A., & Bazerman, M. H. (1983). The effects of perspective taking ability under alternate forms of of arbitration on the negotiation process. Industrial and Labor Relations Review, 36, 378–388. [36, 39] Google Scholar
Neale, M. A., & Bazerman, M. H. (1990). Cognition and rationality in negotiation. New York: The Free Press. [13] Google Scholar
Neisser, U. (1963). The multiplicity of thought. British Journal of Psychology, 54, 1–14. [22] Google Scholar
Neisser, U., Boodoo, G., Bouchard, T., Boykin, A. W., Brody N., Ceci, S. J., Halpern, D., Loehlin, J., Perloff, R., Sternberg, R., & Urbina, S. (1996). Intelligence: Knowns and unknowns. American Psychologist, 51, 77–101. [24] Google Scholar
Nelson, T., Leonesio, R., Landwehr, R., & Narens, L. (1986). A comparison of three predictors of an individual's memory performance: The individual's feeling of knowing vs. the normative feeling of knowing vs. base-rate item difficulty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory & Cognition, 21, 279–287. [39] Google Scholar
Nemeroff, C. (1988). Contagion and the transfer of essence. Doctoral dissertation, University of Pennsylvania. [11] Google Scholar
Nemeroff, C. (1995). Magical thinking about illness virulence: conceptions of germs from “safe” versus “danderous” others. Health Psychology, 14, 147–151. [11] Google Scholar
Nemeroff, C, Brinkman, A., & Woodward, C. (1994). Magical cognitions about AIDS in a college population. AIDS Education and Prevention, 6, 249–265. [11] Google Scholar
Nemeroff, C, & Rozin P. (1989). “You are what you eat”: Applying the demand-free impressions technique to an unacknowledged belief. Ethos, 17, 50–69. [11, 34] Google Scholar
Nemeroff, C, & Rozin, P. (1992). Sympathetic magical beliefs and kosher dietary practice: The interaction of rules and feelings. Ethos, 20, 96–115. [11] Google Scholar
Nemeroff, C., & Rozin, P. (1994). The contagion concept in adult thinking in the United States: Transmission of germs and interpersonal influence. Ethos, 22, 158–186. [11] Google Scholar
Nemeroff, C., & Rozin, P. (2000). The makings of the magical mind. In Imagining the impossible: magical, scientific, and religious thinking in children (pp. 1–34), K. S. Rosengren, C. N. Johnson, & P. L. Harris (Eds.). New York: Cambridge University Press. [11] Google Scholar
Neustadt, R. E., & May, E. R. (1986). Thinking in time: The uses of history for decision-makers. New York: Free Press. [42] Google Scholar
Nevo, B. (Ed.). (1986). Scientific aspects of graphology: A handbook. Springfield, IL: Charles C. Thomas. [34] Google Scholar
Newby-Clark, I. R., Ross, M., Buehler, R., Koehler, D., & Griffin, D. (2000). People focus on optimistic and disregard pessimistic scenarios while predicting task completion times. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 6, 171–182. [14, 19] Google Scholar
Newell, A., & Simon, H. A. (1972). Human problem solving. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall. [31] Google Scholar
Newton, E. (1990). Overconfidence in the communication of intent: Heard and unheard melodies. Unpublished doctoral dissertation, Stanford University. [36] Google Scholar
Newton, E. L. (1990). The rocky road from actions to intentions. Stanford, CA: An unpublished doctoral dissertation. [8] Google Scholar
Nickerson, C. (1995). Does willingness-to-pay reflect the purchase of moral satisfaction? A reconsideration of Kahneman and Knetsch. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 28, 126–133. [2] Google Scholar
Nickerson, R. S. (1996). Hempel's paradox and Wason's selection task: Logical and psychological puzzles of confirmation. Thinking and Reasoning, 2, 1–31. [24] Google Scholar
Nickerson, R. S. (1999). How we know - and sometimes misjudge - what others know: imputing one's own knowledge to others. Psychological Bulletin, 125, 737–760. [8] Google Scholar
Nisbett, R. E., Borgida, E., Crandall, R., & Reed, H. (1976). Popular induction: Information is not always informative. In Cognition and social behavior (pp. 227–236), J. Carrol & J. Payne (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. [20] Google Scholar
Nisbett, R. E., Caputo, C., Legant, P., & Maracek, J. (1973). Behavior as seen by the actor and as seen by the observer. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 27, 154–164. [20] Google Scholar
Nisbett, R. E., Krantz, D. H., Jepson, C., & Kunda, Z. (1983). The use of statistical heuristics in everyday inductive reasoning. Psychological Review, 90, 339–363. [1, 2, 14] Google Scholar
Nisbett, R. E., Peng, K., Choi, I., & Norenzayan, A. (2001). Culture and systems of thought: Holistic versus analytic cognition. Psychological Review, 108, 291–310. [15] Google Scholar
Nisbett, R. E., & Ross, L. (1980). Human inference: Strategies and shortcomings of social judgment. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall. [Introduction, 1, 5, 10, 11, 13, 20, 24, 28, 33, 34, 36, 37] Google Scholar
Nisbett, R. E., & Wilson, T. D. (1977a). Telling more than we can know: verbal reports on mental processes. Psychological Review, 84, 231–259. [7, 10, 16, 41] Google Scholar
Nisbett, R. E., & Wilson, T. D. (1977b). The halo effect: Evidence for unconscious alteration of judgments. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 35, 250–256. [10] Google Scholar
Nisbett, R. E., Zukier, H., & Lemley, R. (1981). The dilution effect: Nondiagnostic information. Cognitive Psychology, 13, 248–277. [32] Google Scholar
Norem, J. K., & Cantor, N. (1986a). Anticipatory and post-hoc cushioning strategies: Optimism and defensive pessimism in “risky” situations. Cognitive Therapy and Research, 10, 347–362. [19] Google Scholar
Norem, J. K., & Cantor, N. (1986b). Defensive pessimism: Harnessing anxiety as motivation. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 51, 1208–1217. [16] Google Scholar
Norman, D. A., & Bobrow, D. G. (1975). On data-limited and resource-limited processes. Cognitive Psychology, 7, 44–64. [9] Google Scholar
Northcraft, G. B., & Neale, M. A. (1987). Experts, amateurs, and real estate: An anchoring-and-adjustment perspective on property pricing decisions. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 39, 84–97. [6] Google Scholar
Novemsky, N., & Kronzon, S. (1999). How are base-rates used, when they are used: A comparison of Bayesian and additive models of base-rate use. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 12, 55–69. [2, 39] Google Scholar
Nutt, S. R., Easterwood, J. C, & Easterwood, C. M. (1999). New evidence on serial correlation in analyst forecast errors. Financial Management, 28, 106–117. [38] Google Scholar
Nuttin, J. M. (1985). Narcissism beyond gestalt and awareness - the name letter effect. European Journal of Social Psychology, 15(3), 353–361. [30] Google Scholar
Nuttin, J. M. (1987). Affective consequences of mere ownership - the name letter effect in 12 European languages. European Journal of Social Psychology, 17(4), 381–402. [30] Google Scholar
Nye, J. (1988). Nuclear learning and U. S.-Soviet security regimes. International Organizations, 41, 121–166. [42] Google Scholar
O'Brien, P. C. (1988) Analysts' forecasts as earnings expectations. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 10, 53–83. [38] Google Scholar
Oaksford, M., & Chater, N. (1993). Reasoning theories and bounded rationality. In Rationality: Psychological and philosophical perspectives (pp. 31–60), K. Manktelow & D. Over (Eds.). London: Routledge. [24] Google Scholar
Oaksford, M., & Chater, N. (1994). A rational analysis of the selection task as optimal data selection. Psychological Review, 101, 608–631. [24] Google Scholar
Oaksford, M., & Chater, N. (1995). Theories of reasoning and the computational explanation of everyday inference. Thinking and Reasoning, 1, 121–152. [24] Google Scholar
Oaksford, M., & Chater, N. (1996). Rational explanation of the selection task. Psychological Review, 103, 381–391. [24] Google Scholar
Oaksford, M., & Chater, N. (1998). Rationality in an uncertain world. Hove, England: Psychology Press. [24] Google Scholar
Odean, T. (1998). Are investors reluctant to realize their losses? Journal of Finance, 53(5), 1775–98. [39] Google Scholar
Okrent, D., & Pidgeon, N. (Eds.) (1998). Actual versus perceived risk. Special issue of Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 59. [41] Google Scholar
Olson, C. L. (1976). Some apparent violations of the representativeness heuristic in human judgment. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 2, 599–608. [25] Google Scholar
Olson, D. R., & Torrance, N. (1987). Language, literacy, and mental states. Discourse Processes, 10, 157–168. [8] Google Scholar
Olson, J. M., Herman, P., & Zanna, M. P. (1986). Relative deprivation and social comparison: The Ontario symposium (Vol. 4). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. [35] Google Scholar
Onkal, D., & Muradoglu, G. (1994). Evaluating probabilistic forecasts of stock prices in a developing stock market. European Journal of Operational Research, 74, 350–358. [39] Google Scholar
Orbell, S., Hodgkins, S., & Sheeran, P. (1997). Implementation intentions and the theory of planned behavior. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 23, 945–954. [14] Google Scholar
Ordóñez, L., & Benson, L., III. (1997). Decisions under time pressure: How time constraint affects risky decision making. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 71(2), 121–140. [2] Google Scholar
Ortmann, A., & Hertwig, R. (2000). Biases and heuristics in psychology and economics. Article proposal for The Journal of Economic Literature. Posted on-line at http://195.113.12.52/ortmann/JELprospectus.html [Introduction] Google Scholar
Ortony, A., Clore, G. L., & Collins, A. (1988). The cognitive structure of emotions. London: Cambridge University Press. [29] Google Scholar
Osberg, T. M., & Shrauger, J. S. (1986). Self-prediction: Exploring the parameters of accuracy. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 51, 1044–1057. [14] Google Scholar
Osborne, R. E., & Gilbert. D. T. (1992). The preoccupational hazards of social life. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 62, 219–228. [9] Google Scholar
Osgood, C. E., Suci, G. J., & Tannenbaum, P. H. (1957). The measurement of meaning. Urbana: University of Illinois Press. [23] Google Scholar
Osherson, D. N. (1995). Probability judgment. In Thinking (Vol. 3, pp. 35–75), E. E. Smith & D. N. Osherson (Eds.). Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. [24] Google Scholar
Osherson, D. N., & Smith, E. E. (1981). On the adequacy of prototype theory as a theory of concepts. Cognition, 9, 35–38. [1] Google Scholar
Osherson, D. N., & Smith, E. E. (1982). Gradedness and conceptual combination. Cognition, 12, 299–318. [1] Google Scholar
Osherson, D., Smith, E. E., Wilkie, O., Lopez, A., & Shafir, E. (1990). Category-based induction. Psychological Review, 97, 185–200. [22] Google Scholar
Oskamp, S. (1962). The relation of clinical experience and training methods to several criteria of clinical prediction. Psychological Monographs, 76 (28, Whole No. 547). [13, 40] Google Scholar
Oskamp, S. (1965). Overconfidence in case-study judgments. The Journal of Consulting Psychology, 29, 261–265. [13, 27] Google Scholar
Ouellette, J. A., & Wood, W. (1998). Habit and intention in everyday life: The multiple processes by which past behavior predicts future behavior. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 124, 54–74. [14] Google Scholar
Over, D. E. (2000). Ecological rationality and its heuristics. Thinking and Reasoning, 6, 182–192. [Introduction] Google Scholar
Paese, P. W., & Sniezek, J. A. (1991). Influences on the appropriateness of confidence in judgment: Practice, effort, information, and decision-making. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 48, 100–130. [39] Google Scholar
Papineau, D. (2000). The evolution of knowledge. King's College, London technical report posted on http://www.kcl.ac.uk/kis/schools/hums/philosophy/staff/evoknow.html. [Introduction] Google Scholar
Parducci, A. (1965). Category judgment: A range-frequency model. Psychological Review, 72, 407–418. [2] Google Scholar
Park, B., & Judd, C. M. (1990). Measures and models of perceived group variability. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 59, 173–191. [36] Google Scholar
Parker, A., & Fischhoff, B. (2001). An individual References approach decision-making competence. Under editorial review. [41] Google Scholar
Parrott, W. G. (1993). Beyond hedonism: Motives for inhibiting good moods and for maintaining bad moods. In Handbook of mental control (pp. 278–305), D. M. Wegner & J. W. Pennebaker (Eds.). Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall. [16] Google Scholar
Particle Data Group: Roos M., Porter F. C., Aguilar-Benitez, M., Montanet, L., Walck, C., Crawford, R. L., Kelly, R. L., Rittenberg, A., Trippe, T. G., Wohl, C. G., Yost, G. P., Shimada, T., Losty, M. J., Gopal, G. P., Hendrick, R. E., Scrock, R. E., Frosch, R., Roper, L. D., Armstrong, B., et al. (1982). Review of Particle Properties. Physics Letters, 111B, 1–21. [37] Google Scholar
Patrick, C. J. (1994). Emotion and psychopathy: startling new insights. Psychophysiol-ogy, 31, 415–428. [23] Google Scholar
Payne, J. W., Bettman, J. R., & Johnson, E. J. (1988). Adaptive strategy selection in decision making. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 14, 534–552. [31] Google Scholar
Payne, J. W., Bettman, J. R., & Johnson, E. J. (1990). The adaptive decision maker: Effort and accuracy in choice. In Insights in decision making: A tribute to Hillel J. Einhorn (pp. 129–153), R. M. Hogarth (Ed.). Chicago: The University of Chicago Press. [31] Google Scholar
Payne, J. W., Bettman, J. R., & Johnson, E. J. (1992). Behavioral decision research: a constructive processing perspective. Annual Review of Psychology, 43, 87–131. [6] Google Scholar
Payne, J. W., Bettman, J. R., & Johnson, E. J. (1993). The adaptive decision maker. New York: Cambridge University Press. [5, 23, 30, 31] Google Scholar
Peake, P. K., & Cervone, D. (1989). Sequence anchoring and self-efficacy: Primacy effects in the consideration of possibilities. Social Cognition, 7, 31–50. [19] Google Scholar
Pelham, B. W., Sumarta, T. T., & Myaskovsky, L. (1994). The easy path from many to much: The numerosity heuristic. Cognitive Psychology, 26, 103–133. [25] Google Scholar
Penman, S. H. (1980). An empirical investigation of the voluntary disclosure of corporate earnings forecasts. Journal of Accounting Research, 18, 132–160. [38] Google Scholar
Pennington, N., & Hastie, R. (1993). A theory of explanation-based decision making. In Decision Making in Action: Models and Methods (pp. 188–204), G. Klein, J. Orasano, R. Calderwood, & C. E. Zsambok (Eds.). Norwood, NJ: Ablex. [23] Google Scholar
Perloff, L. S., & Fetzer, B. K. (1986). Self-other judgements and perceived vulnerability to victimization. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 50, 502–510. [17, 19, 27] Google Scholar
Perner, J., Leekam, S., & Wimmer, H. (1987). Three-year-olds' difficulty with false belief: The case for a conceptual deficit. British Journal of Developmental Psychology, 5, 125–137. [8] Google Scholar
Peters, E., & Slovic, P. (1996). The role of affect and worldviews as orienting dispositions in the perception and acceptance of nuclear power. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 26 (16), 1427–1453. [23] Google Scholar
Peters, E., & Slovic, P. (2000). The springs of action: Affective and analytical information processing in choice. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 26, 1465–1475. [23] Google Scholar
Peterson, C. R., Schneider, R. J., & Miller, A. J. (1965). Sample size and the revision of subjective probabilities. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 69, 522–527. [13] Google Scholar
Peterson, C. R., & Miller, A. J. (1965). Sensitivity of subjective probability revision. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 70, 117–121. [13] Google Scholar
Peterson, D. K., & Pitz, G. F. (1988). Confidence, uncertainty, and the useofinformation. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory and Cognition, 14, 85–92. [25] Google Scholar
Petty, R., & Cacioppo, J. (1986). Communication and persuasion: Central and peripheral routes to attitude change. New York: Springer Verlag. [29] Google Scholar
Petty, R. E., & Caccioppo, J. T. (1986). The elaboration likelihood model of persuasion. In Advances in experimental social psychology, (Vol. 19, pp. 123–205), L. Berkowitz (Ed.). San Diego: Academic Press. [Introduction, 19, 22] Google Scholar
Petty, R. E., & Wegener, D. T. (1993). Flexible correction processes in social judgment: Correcting for context-induced contrast. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 29, 137–165. [6, 10] Google Scholar
Petty, R. E., Wells, G. L., & Brock, T. C. (1976). Distraction can enhance or reduce yielding to propaganda: Thought disruption versus effort justification. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 34, 874–884. [9] Google Scholar
Pfeifer, P. E. (1994). Are we overconfident in the belief that probability forecasters are overconfident? Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 58, 203–213. [39] Google Scholar
Pham, L. B., & Taylor, S. E. (1999). From thought to action: Effects of process-versus outcome-based mental simulations on performance. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 25, 250–260. [14, 19] Google Scholar
Pham, M. T. (1998). Representativeness, relevance, and the use of feelings in decision making. Journal of Consumer Research, 25, 144–159. [23] Google Scholar
Phillips, L. D. (1973). Bayesian statistics for social sciences. London: Nelson. [41] Google Scholar
Phillips, L. D., & Edwards, W. (1966). Conservatism in a simple probability inference task. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 72, 346–354. [13, 24] Google Scholar
Phillips, L. D., Hays, W. L., & Edwards, W. (1966). Conservatism in complex probabilistic inference. IEEE Transactions on Human Factors in Electronics, 7, 7–18. [24] Google Scholar
Phillips, L. D., & Wright, G. N. (1977). Cultural differences in viewing uncertainty in assessing probabilities. In Decision making and change in human affairs (pp. 507–519), H. Jungermann & G. de Zeeuw (Eds.). Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Reidel. [15] Google Scholar
Piaget, J. (1926). The language and thought of the child. London: Routledge and Kegan Paul. [22, 36] Google Scholar
Piaget, J. (1928). Judgment and reasoning in the child. New York: Harcourt, Brace. [36] Google Scholar
Piaget, J. (1983). The child's conception of the world. Totowa, NJ: Rowman & Allanheld (a division of Littlefield, Adams, & Co.). (Original work published 1929) [11] Google Scholar
Piaget, J., & Inhelder, B. (1975). The origin of the idea of chance in children. New York: Norton. (Originally published 1951) [28] Google Scholar
Piattelli-Palmarini, M. (1994). Inevitable illusions: How mistakes of reason rule our minds. New York: John Wiley. [24] Google Scholar
Pinker, S. (1997). How the mind works. New York: Norton. [Introduction, 11, 24] Google Scholar
Pipes, R. (1993). Russia under the Bolshevik regime. New York: A. A. Knopf. [42] Google Scholar
Pipkin, F. M., & Ritter, R. C. (1983). Precision measurements and fundamental constants. Science, 219, 4587. [37] Google Scholar
Plous, S. (1989). Thinking the unthinkable: the effect of anchoring on likelihood estimates of nuclear war. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 19, 67–91. [6, 7] Google Scholar
Politzer, G., & Noveck, I. A. (1991). Are conjunction rule violations the result of conversational rule violations? Journal of Psycholinguistic Research, 20, 83–103. [24] Google Scholar
Pope, J. (1991). How cultural differences affect multi-country research. Minneapolis: Custom Research, Inc. [15] Google Scholar
Poses, R. M., & Anthony, M. (1991). Availability, wishful thinking, and physicians' diagnostic judgments for patients with suspected bacteremia. Medical Decision Making, 11, 159–168. [39] Google Scholar
Poses, R. M., Smith, W. R., McClish, D. K., Huber, E. C., Clemo, F. L. W., Schmitt, B. P., Alexander-Forti, D., Racht, E. M., Colenda, C. C. III, & Centor, R. M. (1997). Physicians' survival predictions for patients with acute congestive heart failure. Archives of International Medicine, 157, 1001–1007. [39] Google Scholar
Posner, M. I., & Snyder, C. R. R. (1975). Attention and cognitive control. In Information processing and cognition: The Loyola symposium (pp. 55–85), R. L. Solso (Ed.). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [9, 22] Google Scholar
Poulton, E. C. (1968). The new psychophysics: Six models for magnitude estimation. Psychological Bulletin, 69, 1–19. [41] Google Scholar
Poulton, E. C. (1989). Bias in quantifying judgments. London: Erlbaum. [2, 41] Google Scholar
Poulton, E. C. (1994). Behavioral decision theory: A new approach. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [26] Google Scholar
Powell, J. L. (1988). A test of the knew-it-all-along effect in the 1984 presidential statewide elections. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 18, 760–773. [5] Google Scholar
Pratkanis, A. (1989). The cognitive representation of attitudes. In Attitude structure and function (pp. 71–98), A. R. Pratkanis, S. J. Breckler, & A. G. Greenwald (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. [Introduction, 23] Google Scholar
Prelec, D., & Loewenstein, G. (1997). Beyond time discounting. Marketing Letters, 8, 97–108. [16] Google Scholar
Price, P. C., & Murphy, R. O. (1999). General-knowledge overconfidence: A comparison of Brazilian and American university students. Mente Social, 5, 55–74. [15] Google Scholar
Priester, J. R., Cacioppo, J. T., & Petty, R. E. (1996). The influence of motor processes on attitudes toward novel versus familiar semantic stimuli. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 22, 442–447. [7] Google Scholar
Pronin, E., & Berger, J. (1999). Perceptions of intergroup knowledge: The “hippie house” versus the “jock frat.” Unpublished manuscript, Stanford University. [36] Google Scholar
Pronin, E., Kruger, J., Savitsky, K., & Ross, L. (2001). You don't know me, but I know you: The illusion of asymmetric insight. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 81. [36] Google Scholar
Pronin, E., Lin, D. Y., & Ross, L. (2002). The bias blind spot: Perceptions of bias in self versus others. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin. [36] Google Scholar
Pronin, E., & Ross, L. (1999). Two views of romantic break-ups: Biased perceptions of the clarity of intimate communications. Unpublished manuscript, Stanford University. [36] Google Scholar
Proust, M. (1949). Remembrance of things past: the captive (C. K. S. Moncrieff, Trans.). London: Chatto and Windus. (Original work published 1923.) [9] Google Scholar
Pruitt, J. Z., Rubin, D. G., & Kim, S. (1994). Social conflict: Escalation, stalemate, and settlement. New York: McGraw-Hill. [36] Google Scholar
Pryor, J. B., & Kriss, N. (1977). The cognitive dynamics of salience in the attribution process. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 35, 49–55. [20] Google Scholar
Puccio, C., & Ross, L. (1998). Real versus perceived ideological differences: Can we close the gap? Unpublished manuscript, Stanford University. [36] Google Scholar
Puccio, C., & Ross, L. (1999). Understanding “My World”: Failures in perspective-taking in predicting performance on a new task. Unpublished manuscript, Stanford University. [36] Google Scholar
Pyszczynki, T. A., & Greenberg, J. (1981). Role of disconfirmed expectancies in the instigation of attributional processing. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 40, 31–38. [19] Google Scholar
Quattrone, G., & Jones, E. E. (1980). The perception of variability within in-groups and out-groups: Implications for the law of small numbers. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 38, 141–152. [36] Google Scholar
Quattrone, G. A. (1982). Overattribution and unit formation: when behavior engulfs the person. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 42, 593–607. [6, 9] Google Scholar
Quattrone, G. A. (1985). On the congruity between internal states and action. Psychological Bulletin, 98, 3–40. [16] Google Scholar
Quattrone, G. A., Lawrence, C. P., Finkel, S. E., & Andrus, D. C. (1981). Explorations in anchoring: The effects of prior range, anchor extremity, and suggestive hints. Manuscript, Stanford University. [6] Google Scholar
Quine, W. V. (1977). Natural kinds. In Naming, necessity, and natural kinds (pp. 155–175), S. P. Schwartz (Ed.). Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press. [22] Google Scholar
Rabin, M. (1997). Psychology and economics. Berkeley Department of Economics Working Paper. No. 97–251. [30] Google Scholar
Rachlinski, J. (1994). Prospect theory and the economics of litigation. Unpublished Doctoral dissertation, Stanford University. [36] Google Scholar
Rachlinski, J. J. (1998). A positive psychological theory of judging in hindsight. University of Chicago Law Review, 65, 571–625. [41] Google Scholar
Rachman, S. (1994). The overprediction of fear: A review. Behavior Research and Therapy, 32, 683–690. [16] Google Scholar
Rachman, S., & Bichard, S. (1988). The overprediction of fear. Clinical Psychology Review, 8, 303–312. [16] Google Scholar
Rachman, S., Levitt, & Lopatka, C. (1988). III. Experimental analyses of panic: Claustrophobic subjects. Behavior Research and Therapy, 26, 41–52. [16] Google Scholar
Radhakrishnan, P., Arrow, H., & Sniezek, J. A. (1996). Hoping, performing, learning, and predicting: Changes in the accuracy of self-evaluations of performance. Human Performance, 9, 23–49. [19] Google Scholar
Raghunathan, R., & Pham, M. T. (1999). All negative moods are not created equal: Motivational influences of anxiety and sadness on decision making. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Performance, 79, 56–77. [29] Google Scholar
Raiffa, H. (1968). Decision analysis: Introductory lectures on choice under uncertainty. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley. [37] Google Scholar
Read, A. W. et al., (Eds.). (1978). Funk & Wagnalls new comprehensive international dictionary of the English language. New York: The Publishers Guild Press. [34] Google Scholar
Read, D. (1985). Determinants of relative mutability. Unpublished research, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada. [20] Google Scholar
Read, D., & Loewenstein, G. (1995). Diversification bias: Explaining the discrepancy in variety seeking between combined and separated choices. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 1, 34–49. [16] Google Scholar
Read, D., & van Leeuwen, B. (1998). Predicting hunger: The effects of appetite and delay on choice. Organization Behavior and human Decision Processes, 76, 189–205. [30] Google Scholar
Read, S. J. (1984). Analogical reasoning in social judgment: The importance of causal theories. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 46, 14–25. [20] Google Scholar
Reber, A. S. (1993). Implicit learning and tacit knowledge. New York: Oxford University Press. [24] Google Scholar
Reber, R., Winkielman, P., Schwarz, N. (1998). Effects of perceptual fluency on affective judgments. Psychological Science, 9, 45–48. [Introduction] Google Scholar
Redding, S. G. (1978). Bridging the culture gap. Asian Business and Investment, 4, 45–52. [15] Google Scholar
Redelmeier, D., & Kahneman, D. (1996). Patients' memories of painful medical treatments: real-time and retrospective evaluations of two minimally invasive procedures. Pain, 66, 3–8. [2] Google Scholar
Redelmeier, D., Katz, J., & Kahneman, D. (2001). Memories of colonoscopy: A randomized trial. Working paper. [2] Google Scholar
Redelmeier, D., Koehler, D. J., Liberman, V., & Tversky, A. (1995). Probability judgment in medicine: Discounting unspecified alternatives. Medical Decision Making, 15, 227–230. [25, 27] Google Scholar
Reeder, G. D., & Brewer, M. B. (1979). A schematic model of dispositional attribution in interpersonal perception. Psychological Review, 86, 61–79. [9] Google Scholar
Reeves, T., & Lockhart, R. S. (1993). Distributional versus singular approaches to probability and errors in probabilistic reasoning. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 122, 207–226. [24, 25] Google Scholar
Regan, D. T., & Totten, J. (1975). Empathy and attribution: Turning observers into actors. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 32, 850–856. [20] Google Scholar
Rescher, N. (1988). Rationality: A philosophical inquiry into the nature and rationale of reason. Oxford, U.K.: Oxford University Press. [24] Google Scholar
Resnik, M. D. (1987). Choices: An introduction to decision theory. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press. [24] Google Scholar
Revlin, R., Leirer, V., Yopp, H., & Yopp, R. (1980). The belief-bias effect in formal reasoning: The influence of knowledge on logic. Memory & Cognition, 8, 584–592. [22] Google Scholar
Riley, D. M., Fischhoff, B., & Small, M., & Fischbeck, P. (2001). Evaluating the effectiveness of risk-reduction strategies for consumer chemical products. Risk Analysis, 21, 357–369. [41] Google Scholar
Rips, L. J. (1990). Reasoning. Annual Review of Psychology, 41, 321–353. [22] Google Scholar
Rips, L. J. (1994). The psychology of proof: Deductive reasoning in human thinking. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. [22, 24] Google Scholar
Ritov, I. (1996). Anchoring in simulated competitive market negotiations. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 67, 16–25. [6] Google Scholar
Ritov, I., & Baron, J. (1990). Reluctance to vaccinate: Commission bias and ambiguity. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 3, 263–277. [21] Google Scholar
Ritov, I., & Baron, J. (1992). Status-quo and omission biases. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 5, 49–61. [21] Google Scholar
Robins, R. W., & Craik, K. H. (1993). Is there a citation bias in the judgment and decision literature? Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 54, 225–244. [Introduction] Google Scholar
Robinson, L. B., & Hastie, R. (1985). Revision of beliefs when a hypothesis is eliminated from consideration. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 4, 443–456. [25] Google Scholar
Robinson, R. J., & Keltner, D. (1996). Much ado about nothing? Revisionists and traditionalists choose an introductory English syllabus. Psychological Science, 7, 18–24. [36] Google Scholar
Robinson, R. J., Keltner, D., Ward, A., & Ross, L. (1995). Actual versus assumed differences in construal: “Naïve realism” in intergroup perception and conflict. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 68, 404–417. [36] Google Scholar
Roch, S. G., Lane, J. A. S., Samuelson, C. D., Allison, S. T., & Dent, J. L. (2000). Cognitive load and the equality heuristic: A two-stage model of resource overcon-sumption in small groups. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 83, 185–212. [30] Google Scholar
Rock, I., & Nijhawan, R. (1989). Regression to egocentrically determined description of form under conditions of inattention. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 15, 259–272. [9] Google Scholar
Roese, N. J. (1994). The functional basis of counterfactual thinking. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 66, 805–818. [14, 35] Google Scholar
Roese, N. J., & Olson, J. M. (1995). What might have been: The social psychology of counter-factual thinking. Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. [35] Google Scholar
Rogers, R. W., & Mewborn, C. R. (1976). Fear appeals and attitude change. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 34, 54–61. [4] Google Scholar
Ronis, D. L., & Yates, J. F. (1987). Components of probability judgment accuracy: Individual consistency and effects of participant matter and assessment method. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 40, 193–218. [15] Google Scholar
Roos, M., Hietanen, M., & Luoma, J. (1975). A New Procedure for Averaging Particle Properties. Physics Fennica, 10, 21–33. [37] Google Scholar
Rorty, R. (1970). Incorrigibility as the mark of the mental. The Journal of Philosophy, 67, 399–424. [16] Google Scholar
Rosch, E. (1978). Principles of categorization. In Cognition and categorization, E. Rosch & B. B. Lloyd (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. [1, 3] Google Scholar
Rosen, A., & Rozin, P. (1993). Now you see it … Now you don't: The preschool child's conception of invisible particles in the context of dissolving. Developmental Psychology, 29, 300–311. [11] Google Scholar
Rosenberg, M. (1965). Society and the adolescent self-image. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. [14] Google Scholar
Rosenfeld, H. (1975). The particle date group: Growth and operators. Annual Review of Nuclear Science, 25, 555–599. [37] Google Scholar
Rosenthal, R. (1994). Metaanalysis: A review. Psychosomatic Medicine, 53, 247–271. [41] Google Scholar
Ross, L. (1977). The intuitive psychologist and his shortcomings: Distortions in the attribution process. In Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, (Vol. 10, pp. 174–214), L. Berkowitz (Ed.). New York: Academic Press. [Introduction, 20, 36] Google Scholar
Ross, L. (1990). Recognizing the role of construal processes. In The legacy of Solomon Asch: essays in cognition and social psychology, I. Rock (Ed.). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [8] Google Scholar
Ross, L. (1995). Reactive devaluation in negotiation and conflict resolution. In Barriers to the negotiated resolution of conflict (pp. 30–48), K. Arrow, R. Mnookin, L. Ross, A. Tversky, & R. Wilson (Eds.). New York: Norton. [36] Google Scholar
Ross, L., Amabile, T. M., & Steinmetz, J. L. (1977). Social roles, social control, and biases in social-perception processes. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 35, 485–494. [9] Google Scholar
Ross, L., & Anderson, C. A. (1982). Shortcomings in the attribution process: On the origins and maintenance of erroneous social assessments. In Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 129–152), D. Kahneman, R. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.). New York: Cambridge University Press. [20] Google Scholar
Ross, L., Greene, D., & House, P. (1977). The false consensus effect: An egocentric bias in social perception and attribution processes. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 13, 279–301. [36] Google Scholar
Ross, L., & Lepper, M. R. (1980). The perseverance of beliefs: Empirical and normative considerations. In New directions for methodology of social and behavioral science: Fallible judgment in behavioral research (pp. 17–36), R. A. Shweder & D. Fiske (Eds.). San Francisco: Jossey Bass. [20, 36] Google Scholar
Ross, L., Lepper, M. R., Strack, F., & Steinmetz, J. L. (1977). Social explanation and social expectation: the effects of real and hypothetical explanation upon subjective likelihood. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 35, 817–829. [4] Google Scholar
Ross, L., & Nisbett, R. E. (1991). The person and the situation. New York: McGraw-Hill. [36] Google Scholar
Ross, L., & Stillinger, C. (1991). Barriers to conflict resolution. Negotiation Journal, 8, 389–404. [36] Google Scholar
Ross, L., & Ward, A. (1995). Psychological barriers to dispute resolution. In Advances in experimental social psychology, (Vol. 27, pp. 255–304), M. Zanna (Ed.). San Diego: Academic Press. [36] Google Scholar
Ross, L., & Ward, A. (1996). Naive realism in everyday life: Implications for social conflict and misunderstanding. In Values and knowledge (pp. 103–135), T. Brown, E. Reed, & E. Turiel (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. [36] Google Scholar
Ross, M. (1989). The relation of implicit theories to the construction of personal histories. Psychological Review, 96, 341–357. [16,19] Google Scholar
Ross, M., & Buehler, R. (2001). Identity through time: Constructing personal pasts and futures. In Blackwell handbook of social psychology: Intraindividual processes (Vol. 1, pp. 518–544), A. Tesser & N. Schwarz (Eds.). Oxford, U.K.: Blackwell. [14] Google Scholar
Ross, M., & Fletcher, G. J. O. (1985). Attribution and social perception. In The handbook of social psychology (3rd ed.; Vol. 2, pp. 73–122), G. Lindzey & A. Aronson (Eds.). Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley. [14] Google Scholar
Ross, M., & Sicoly F. (1979). Egocentric biases in availability and attribution. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 37, 322–336. [36] Google Scholar
Rothbart, M., Fulero, S., Jenson, D., Howard, J., & Biffell, P. (1978). From individual to group impressions: availability heuristics in stereotype formation. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 14, 237–255. [4] Google Scholar
Rothman, A. J., Klein, W. M., & Weinstein, N. D. (1996). Absolute and relative biases in estimations of personal risk. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 26, 1213–1236. [19, 27] Google Scholar
Rothman, A. J., & Schwarz, N. (1998). Constructing perceptions of vulnerability: personal relevance and the use of experiential information in health judgments. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 24, 1053–1064. [5] Google Scholar
Rottenstreich, Y., Brenner, L., & Sood, S. (1999). Similarity between hypotheses and evidence. Cognitive Psychology, 38, 110–128. [27] Google Scholar
Rottenstreich, Y., Hsee, C. K. (2001). Money, kisses, and electric shocks: On the affective psychology of risk. Psychological Science, 12, 185–190. [23, 30] Google Scholar
Rottenstreich, Y, & Tversky A. (1997). Unpacking, repacking, and anchoring: advances in support theory. Psychological Review, 104, 406–415. [6,14, 26, 27, 39] Google Scholar
Rouse, W. B., & Morris, N. M. (1986). On looking into the black box: Prospects and limits in the search for mental models. Psychological Bulletin, 100, 349–363. [41] Google Scholar
Rozin, P. (1990). Social and moral aspects of eating. In The legacy of Solomon Asch: Essays in cognition and social psychology (pp. 97–110), I. Rock (Ed.). Potomac, MD: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [11] Google Scholar
Rozin, P. (1996). Towards a psychology of food and eating: from motivation to model to meaning, morality and metaphor. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 5, 1–7. [11] Google Scholar
Rozin, P., & Fallon, A. E. (1987). A perspective on disgust. Psychological Review, 94, 23–41. [11] Google Scholar
Rozin, P., Fallon, A. E., & Augustoni-Ziskind, M. (1985). The child's conception of food: the development of contamination sensitivity to “disgusting” substances. Developmental Psychology, 21, 1075–1079. [11] Google Scholar
Rozin, P., Fallon, A. E., & Augustoni-Ziskind, M. (1986). The child's conception of food: development of categories of accepted and rejected substances. Journal of Nutrition Education, 18, 75–81. [11] Google Scholar
Rozin, P., Fallon, A. E., & Mandell, R. (1984). Family resemblance in attitudes to food. Developmental Psychology, 20, 309–314. [11] Google Scholar
Rozin, P., Grant, H., Weinberg, S., & Parker, S. (2000). “Head versus heart”: Effect of monetary frames on expression of sympathetic magical concerns. Unpublished manuscript. [11] Google Scholar
Rozin, P., Haidt, J., & McCauley C. R. (1993). Disgust. In Handbook of emotions (pp. 575–594), M. Lewis & J. Haviland (Eds.). New York: Guilford. [11] Google Scholar
Rozin, P., Haidt, J., McCauley, C. R., Dunlop, L., & Ashmore, M. (1999). Individual differences in disgust sensitivity: comparisons and evaluations of paper-and-pencil versus behavioral measures. Journal of Research in Personality, 33, 330–351. [11] Google Scholar
Rozin, P., Haidt, J., McCauley, C. R., & Imada, S. (1997). The cultural evolution of disgust. In Food preferences and taste: Continuity and change (pp. 65–82), H. M. Macbeth (Ed.). Oxford, U.K.: Berghahn. [11] Google Scholar
Rozin, P., & Kalat, J. W. (1971). Specific hungers and poison avoidance as adaptive specializations of learning. Psychological Review, 78, 459–486. [11] Google Scholar
Rozin, P., Markwith, M., & McCauley, C. R. (1994). The nature of aversion to indirect contact with another person: AIDS aversion as a composite of aversion to strangers, infection, moral taint and misfortune. Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 103, 495–504. [11] Google Scholar
Rozin, P., Markwith, M., & Nemeroff, C. (1992). Magical contagion beliefs and fear of AIDS. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 22, 1081–1092. [11] Google Scholar
Rozin, P., Markwith, M., & Ross, B. (1990). The sympathetic magical law of similarity, nominal realism and the neglect of negatives in response to negative labels. Psychological Science, 1, 383–384. [11] Google Scholar
Rozin, P., Millman, L., & Nemeroff, C. (1986). Operation of the laws of sympathetic magic in disgust and other domains. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 50, 703–712. [11] Google Scholar
Rozin, P., Nemeroff, C, Horowitz, M., Gordon, B., & Voet, W. (1995). The borders of the self: Contamination sensitivity and potency of the mouth, other apertures and body parts. Journal of Research in Personality, 29, 318–340. [11] Google Scholar
Rozin, P., Nemeroff, C, Wane, M., & Sherrod, A. (1989). Operation of the sympathetic magical law of contagion in interpersonal attitudes among Americans. Bulletin of the Psychonomic Society, 27, 367–370. [11] Google Scholar
Rozin, P., & Nemeroff, C. J. (1990). The laws of sympathetic magic: A psychological analysis of similarity and contagion. In Cultural psychology: Essays on comparative human development (pp. 205–232.), J. Stigler, G. Herdt & R. A. Shweder (Eds.). Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [11] Google Scholar
Rozin, P., & Royzman, E. (in press). Negativity bias, negativity dominance, and contagion. Personality & Social Psychology Bulletin. [11] Google Scholar
Rozin, P., Taylor, C. P., Ross, L., Bennett, G., & Hejmadi, A. (2000). Recognition of disgust and other emotional expressions, individual differences in obsessive and compulsive tendencies, and disgust sensitivity. Unpublished manuscript. [11] Google Scholar
Rubinstein, A. (1979). False probabilistic arguments vs. faulty intuition. Israel Law Review, 14, 247–254. [1] Google Scholar
Rumelhart, D. E. (1989). Towards a microstructural account of human reasoning. In Similarity and analogical reasoning (pp. 298–312), S. Vosniadou & A. Ortony (Eds.). Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [22] Google Scholar
Rumelhart, D. E., & Zipser, D. (1985). Feature discovery by competitive learning. Cognitive Science, 9, 75–112. [22] Google Scholar
Rush, H. (1955, August). The speed of light. Scientific American, 62–67. [37] Google Scholar
Russell, T., & Thaler, R. H. (1985). The relevance of quasi-rationality in competitive markets. American Economic Review, 75, 1071–1082. [38] Google Scholar
Russo, J. E., & Kolzow, K. (1994). Where is the fault in fault trees? Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 20, 17–32. [25] Google Scholar
Russo, J. E., & Shoemaker, P. J. H. (1989). Decision traps. New York: Simon and Schuster. [6] Google Scholar
Rutledge, R. W. (1993). The effects of group decisions and group-shifts on use of the anchoring and adjustment heuristic. Social Behavior and Personality, 21, 215–226. [6] Google Scholar
Ryle, G. (1949). The concept of mind. London: Hutchinson. [9, 16] Google Scholar
Sackett, D. L., & Snow, J. S. (1979). The magnitude of compliance and noncompliance. In Compliance in health care (pp. 11–22), R. B. Haynes, D. W. Taylor, & D. L. Sackett (Eds.). Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press. [4] Google Scholar
Saks, M. J., & Kidd, R. F. (1981). Human information processing and adjudication: Trials by heuristics. Law & Society Review, 15, 123–160. [1] Google Scholar
Samuels, R., Stich, S., & Bishop, M. (in press). Ending the rationality wars: How to make disputes about human rationality disappear. In Common sense, reasoning and rationality: Vancouver studies in cognitive science, (Vol. 11) R. Elio (Ed.). New York: Oxford University Press. [Introduction] Google Scholar
Samuelson, W., & Zeckhauser, R. (1988). Status quo bias in decision making. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 1, 7–59. [30, 32] Google Scholar
Sanfey, A., & Hastie, R. (1998). Does evidence presentation format affect judgment? An experimental evaluation of displays of data for judgments. Psychological Science 9 (2), 99–103. [23] Google Scholar
Sanna, L. J., Schwarz, N., & Stocker, S. L. (2001). When debiasing backfires: Accessible content and accessibility experiences in debiasing hindsight through mental simulations. Manuscript under review. [5] Google Scholar
Sargent, T. J. (1993). Bounded rationality in macroeconomics. Oxford, U.K.: Clarendon Press. [31] Google Scholar
Saunders S. (1993). Stock prices and Wall Street weather. American Economic Review, 83, 1337–45 [29] Google Scholar
Savage, L. J. (1954). The foundations of statistics. New York: Wiley. [31, 41] Google Scholar
Savitsky, K., Medvec, V. H., Charlton, A. E., & Gilovich, T. (1998). “What, me worry?” Arousal, misattribution and the effect of temporal distance on confidence. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 24, 529–536. [19, 29] Google Scholar
Sawyer, J. (1966). Measurement and prediction, clinical and statistical. Psychological Bulletin, 66, 178–200. [40] Google Scholar
Scanlon, M., & Mauro J. (1992, November/December). The lowdown on handwriting analysis: Is it for real? Psychology Today, 80, 46–53. [34] Google Scholar
Schank, R. C. (1982). Dynamic memory: Learning in computers and people. New York: Cambridge University Press. [20] Google Scholar
Scheier, M. F., & Carver, C. S. (1985). Optimism, coping, and health: Assessment and implications of generalized outcome expectancies. Health Psychology, 4, 219–247. [14] Google Scholar
Scheier, M. F., & Carver, C. S. (1988). A model of behavioral self-regulation: Translating intention into action. In Advances in Experimental Social Psychology (Vol. 21, pp. 303–346), L. Berkowitz (Ed.). New York: Academic Press. [19] Google Scholar
Schelling, T. (1960). The Strategy of Conflict. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. [30] Google Scholar
Schelling, T. (1984). Self-command in practice, in policy, and in theory of rational choice. American Economic Review, 74, 1–11. [16] Google Scholar
Schick, F. (1987). Rationality: Athird dimension. Economicsand Philosophy, 3,49–66.[24] Google Scholar
Schick, F. (1997). Making choices: A recasting of decision theory. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [24] Google Scholar
Schick, T., & Vaughn, L. (1999). How to think about weird things: Critical thinking for a new age. Mountain View, CA: Mayfield. [Introduction, 34] Google Scholar
Schifter, D. E., & Ajzen, I. (1985). Intention, perceived control, and weight loss: An application of the theory of planned behavior. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 49, 843–851. [14] Google Scholar
Schkade, D. A., & Johnson, E. J. (1989). Cognitive processes in preference reversals. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 44, 203–231. [6, 7] Google Scholar
Schkade, D. A., & Kahneman, D. (1998). Does living in California make people happy? A focusing illusion in judgments of life satisfaction. Psychological Science, 9, 340–346. [14, 16] Google Scholar
Schkade, D. A., & Kilbourne, L. M. (1991). Expectation-outcome consistency and hindsight bias. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 49, 105–123. [19] Google Scholar
Schlenker, B. R. (Ed.). (1985). The self and social life. New York: McGraw-Hill. [32] Google Scholar
Schneider, S. L. (1995). Item difficulty, discrimination, and the confidence-frequency effect in a categorical judgment task. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 61, 148–167. [39] Google Scholar
Schneider, W., & Shiffrin, R. M. (1977). Controlled and automatic human information processing: Detection, search, and attention. Psychological Review, 84, 1–66. [9, 22] Google Scholar
Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1993). Multiple scenario development: Its conceptual and behavioral foundation. Strategic Management Journal, 14, 193–213. [14] Google Scholar
Schoenbach, V. J. (1987). Appraising the health risk appraisal. American Journal of Public Health, 77, 409–410. [17] Google Scholar
Schreiber, C., & Kahneman, D. (2000). Determinants of the remembered utility of aversive sounds. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 129, 27–42. [2] Google Scholar
Schul, Y., & Bernstein, E. (1985). When discounting fails: Conditions under which individuals use discredited information in making a judgment. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 49, 894–903. [20] Google Scholar
Schumacher, E. (1985, September 21). Death of “Yiyo” raises passions over bullfights. The Globe and Mail, p. B9. [21] Google Scholar
Schustack, M. W., & Sternberg, R. J. (1981). Evaluation of evidence in causal inference. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 110, 101–120. [20] Google Scholar
Schwarz, N. (1987). Stimmung als Information: Untersuchungen zum Einflußvon Stim-mungen auf die Bewertung des eigenen Lebens. (Mood as information: Investigations into mood effects on the evaluation of one's life.) Heidelberg, FRG: Springer Verlag. [29] Google Scholar
Schwarz, N. (1990). Feelings as information: Informational and motivational functions of affective states. In Handbook of motivation and cognition: Foundations of social behavior (Vol. 2, pp. 527–561), E. T. Higgins & R. Sorrentino (Eds.). New York: Guilford Press. [21, 29] Google Scholar
Schwarz, N. (1994). Judgment in a social context: Biases, shortcomings, and the logic of conversation. In Advances in experimental social psychology (Vol. 26, pp. 123–162), M. P. Zanna (Ed.). San Diego: Academic Press. [6, 32] Google Scholar
Schwarz, N. (1995). Social cognition: Information accessibility and use in social judgment. In Thinking. (An Invitation to Cognitive Science, Vol. 3, 2nd ed., pp. 345- 376), E. E. Smith & D. N. Osherson (Eds.). Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. [5] Google Scholar
Schwarz, N. (1996). Cognition and communication: judgmental biases, research methods, and the logic of conversation. Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [2, 24] Google Scholar
Schwarz, N. (1998). Accessible content and accessibility experiences: the interplay of declarative and experiential information in judgment. Personality and Social Psychology Review, 2, 87–99. [5] Google Scholar
Schwarz, N. (1999). Self reports. American Psychologist, 54, 93–105. [41] Google Scholar
Schwarz, N. (2001). Feelings as information: Implications for affective influences on information processing. In Theories of mood and cognition: A user's handbook (pp. 159–176), L. L. Martin & G. L. Clore (Eds.). Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [29] Google Scholar
Schwarz, N. (in press). Where are the unique predictions? Psychological Inquiry. [29] Google Scholar
Schwarz, N., & Bless H. (1992). Constructing reality and its alternatives: an inclusion/exclusion model of assimilation and contrast effects in social judgment. In The construction of social judgments (pp. 217–245), L. L. Martin & A. Tesser (Eds.). Hillsdale NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [6] Google Scholar
Schwarz, N., Bless, H., & Bohner, G. (1991). Mood and persuasion: Affective states influence the processing of persuasive communications. In Advances in Experimental Social Psychology (Vol. 24, pp. 161–199), M. Zanna (Ed.). San Diego, CA: Academic Press. [29] Google Scholar
Schwarz, N., Bless, H., Strack, F., Klumpp, G., Rittenauer-Schatka, H., & Simons, A. (1991). Ease of retrieval as information: Another look at the availability heuristic. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 61, 195–202. [2, 5] Google Scholar
Schwarz, N., & Clore, G. L. (1983). Mood, misattribution, and judgmentsofwell-being: Informative and directive functions of affective states. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 45, 513–523. [2, 5, 29] Google Scholar
Schwarz, N., & Clore, G. L. (1988). How do I feel about it? Informative functions of affective states. In Affect, cognition, and social behavior (pp. 44–62), K. Fiedler & J. Forgas (Eds.). Toronto: Hogrefe International. [23, 29, 30] Google Scholar
Schwarz, N., & Clore, G. L. (1996). Feelings and phenomenal experiences. In Social psychology: a handbook of basic principles (pp. 433–465), E. T. Higgins & A. Kruglanski (Eds.). New York: Guilford. [5, 29] Google Scholar
Schwarz, N., & Schuman, H. (1997). Political Knowledge, attribution, and inferred political interest. International journol of Public Opinion Research, 9, 191–195. [5] Google Scholar
Schwarz, N., Servay, W., & Kumpf, M. (1985). Attribution of arousal as a mediator of the effectiveness of fear-arousing communications. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 15, 74–78. [29] Google Scholar
Schwarz, N., & Skurnik, I. (in press). Feeling and thinking: Implications for problem solving. In The nature of problem solving, J. Davidson & R. Sternberg (Eds.). Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [29] Google Scholar
Schwarz, N., Strack, F., Hilton, D., & Naderer, G. (1991). Base rates, representativeness, and the logic of conversation: The contextual relevance of “irrelevant” information. Social Cognition, 9, 67–84. [2] Google Scholar
Schwarz, N., Strack, F., Kommer, D., & Wagner, D. (1987). Soccer, rooms and the quality of your life: Mood effects on judgments of satisfaction with life in general and with specific life-domains. European Journal of Social Psychology, 17, 69–79. [29] Google Scholar
Schwarz, S., & Griffin, T. (1986). Medical thinking: The psychology of medical judgment and decision making. New York: Springer Verlag. [39] Google Scholar
Schyns, P. G. (1991). A modular neural network model of concept acquisition. Cognitive Science, 15, 461–508. [22] Google Scholar
Seligman, M. E. P. (1975). Helplessness: On depression, development, and death. San Francisco: Freeman. [16] Google Scholar
Sen, S., & Johnson, E. J. (1997). Mere-possession effects without possession in consumer choice. Journal of Consumer Research, 24, 105–117. [6] Google Scholar
Sensenig, P. E., & Cialdini, R. B. (1984). Social psychological influences on the compliance process: implications for behavioral health. In Behavioral health: A handbook of health enhancement and disease prevention, J. D. Matarazzo, N. E. Miller, S. M. Weiss, J. A. Herd, & S. M. Weiss (Eds.). New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. [4] Google Scholar
Shafer, G. (1976). A mathematical theory of evidence. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. [1, 20, 25, 26] Google Scholar
Shafer, G., & Tversky, A. (1983). Weighting evidence: The design and comparisons of probability thought experiments. Unpublished manuscript, Stanford University. [1] Google Scholar
Shafer, G., & Tversky, A. (1985). Languages and designs for probability judgment. Cognitive Science, 9, 309–339. [41] Google Scholar
Shafir, E. (1993). Choosing and rejecting: why some options are both better and worse. Memory & Cognition, 21, 546–556. [6] Google Scholar
Shafir, E., Osherson, D. N., & Smith, E. E. (1989). An advantage model of choice. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 2, 1–23. [23] Google Scholar
Shafir, E., Simonson, I., & Tversky, A. (1993). Reason-based choice. Cognition, 49, 11–36. [23, 32] Google Scholar
Shafir, E. B., Smith, E. E., & Osherson, D. N. (1990). Typicality and reasoning fallacies. Memory and Cognnition, 18, 229–239. [3] Google Scholar
Shaklee, H., & Fischhoff, B. (1982). Strategies of information search in causal analysis. Memory and Cognition, 10, 520–530. [14] Google Scholar
Shanteau, J. (1978). When does a response error become a judgmental bias? Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Learning and Memory, 4, 579–581. [41] Google Scholar
Shanteau, J. (1999). Decision making by experts: The GNAHM effect. In Decision research from Bayesian approaches to normative systems: Reflections on the contributions of Ward Edwards, J. Shanteau, B. Mellers, & D. Schum (Eds.). Norwell, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers. [39] Google Scholar
Sheeran, P., Orbell, S., & Trafimow, D. (1999). Does the temporal stability of behavioral intentions moderate intention-behavior and past behavior-future behavior relations? Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 25, 721–730. [14] Google Scholar
Shepperd, J. A., Ouellette, J. A., & Fernandez, J. K. (1996). Abandoning unrealistic optimism: Performance estimates and the temporal proximity of self-relevant feedback. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 70, 844–855. [19] Google Scholar
Sherif, C., Sherif, M., & Nebergall, R. (1965). Attitude and attitude change: The social judgment-involvement approach. Philadelphia: Saunders. [6] Google Scholar
Sherif, M., & Hovland, D. (1961). Social judgment: Assimilation and contrast effects in communication and attitude change. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press. [6] Google Scholar
Sherman, D. A., Kim, H., & Zajonc, R. B. (1998). Affective perseverance: Cognitions change but preferences stay the same. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Psychological Society, 1998. [23] Google Scholar
Sherman, R. S. (1982). Decreasing premature termination from psychotherapy via an imagination/explanation procedure. Unpublished Doctoral dissertation, Indiana University. [4] Google Scholar
Sherman, S. J. (1980). On the self-erasing nature of errors of prediction. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 39, 211–221. [4, 14, 19] Google Scholar
Sherman, S. J., Cialdini, R. B., Schwartzman, D. F., & Reynolds, K. D. (1985). Imagining can heighten or lower the perceived likelihood of contracting a disease: The mediating effect of ease of imagery. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 11, 118–127. [21] Google Scholar
Sherman, S. J., & Corty, E. (1984). Cognitive heuristics. In Handbook of social cognition (Vol. 1, pp. 189–286), R. S. Wyer & T. K. Srull (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [5] Google Scholar
Sherman, S. J., Skov, R. B., Hervitz, E. F., & Stock, C. B. (1981). The effects of explaining hypothetical future events: From possibility to actuality and beyond. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 17, 142–158. [14,17,19] Google Scholar
Sherman, S. J., Zehner, K. S., Johnson, J., & Hirt, E. R. (1983). Social explanation: the role of timing, set, and recall on subjective likelihood estimates. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 44, 1127–1143. [4] Google Scholar
Shiffrin, R. M., Dumais, S. T., & Schneider, W. (1981). Characteristics of automatism. In Attention and performance IX (pp. 223–238), J. B. Long & A. Baddeley (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. [22] Google Scholar
Shiffrin, R. M., & Schneider, W. (1977). Controlled and automatic human information processing: II. Perceptual learning, automatic attending, and a general theory. Psychological Review, 84, 127–190. [22] Google Scholar
Shiller, R. J. (1987). Investor behavior in the October 1987 stock market crash: Survey evidence. Working Paper, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [38] Google Scholar
Shiller, R. J. (2000). Irrational exuberance. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. [38] Google Scholar
Shimojo, S., & Ichikawa, S. (1989). Intuitive reasoning about probability: theoretical and experimental analyses of the “problem of three prisoners.” Cognition, 32, 1–32. [22] Google Scholar
Shlyakhter, A. I., Kammen, D. M., Broido, C. L., & Wilson, R. (1994). Quantifying the credibility of energy projections from trends in past data: The U.S. energy sector. Energy Policy, 22, 119–131. [41] Google Scholar
Shrauger, J. S., Mariano, E., & Walter, T. J. (1998). Depressive symptoms and accuracy in the prediction of future events. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 24, 880–892. [14] Google Scholar
Shrauger, J. S., & Osberg, T. M. (1981). The relative accuracy of self-predictions and judgments by others in psychological assessment. Psychological Bulletin, 90, 322–351. [14] Google Scholar
Shrauger, J. S., Ram, D., Greninger, S. A., & Mariano, E. (1996). Accuracy of self-predictions versus judgments by knowledgeable others. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 22, 1229–1243. [14] Google Scholar
Shweder, R. A. (1977). Likeness and likelihood in everday thought: Magical thinking in judgments about personality. Current Anthropology, 18(4), 637–658. [2,11] Google Scholar
Shweder, R. A. (1987). Comments on Plott and on Kahneman, Knetsch, & Thaler. In Rational choice: The contrast between economics and psychology (pp. 161–170), R. M. Hogarth & M. W. Reder (Eds.). Chicago: Chicago University Press. [24] Google Scholar
Sieck, W., & Yates, J. F (1997). Exposition effects on decision making: Choice and confidence in choice. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 70, 207–219. [24] Google Scholar
Siegal, M. (1988). Children's knowledge of contagion and contamination as causes of illness. Child Development, 59, 1353–1359. [11] Google Scholar
Siegal, M., & Share, D. L. (1990). Contamination sensitivity in young children. Developmental Psychology, 26, 455–458. [11] Google Scholar
Siegel, S. (1956). Nonparametric statistics. New York: McGraw-Hill. [33] Google Scholar
Siegel-Jacobs, K., & Yates, J. F (1996). Effects of procedural and outcome accountability on judgment quality. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 1, 1–17. [32] Google Scholar
Siemer, M., & Reisenzein, R. (1998). Effects of mood on evaluative judgment: Influence of reduced processing capacity and mood salience. Cognition and Emotion, 12, 783–805. [29] Google Scholar
Siero, S., Kok, G., & Pruyn, J. (1984). Effects of public education about breast cancer and breast self-examination. Social Science and Medicine, 18, 881–888. [17] Google Scholar
Simon, H. (1978). Rational decision making in organizations. The American Economic Review, 69 (4), 493–513. [30] Google Scholar
Simon, H. (1982). Models of bounded rationality. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. [11, 31] Google Scholar
Simon, H. A. (1956a). Dynamic programming under uncertainty with a quadratic criterion function. Econometrica, 24, 19–33. [31] Google Scholar
Simon, H. A. (1956b). Rational choice and the structure ofthe environment. Psychological Review, 63, 129–138. [Introduction, 23] Google Scholar
Simon, H. A. (1957). Models of man: Social and rational. New York: Wiley. [Introduction, 28] Google Scholar
Simon, H. A. (1979). Models of thought, Vol. 1. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press. [39] Google Scholar
Simon, H. A. (1983). Reason in human affairs. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press. [Introduction] Google Scholar
Simon, H. A. (1992). Economics, bounded rationality, and the cognitive revolution. Aldershot Hants, England: Elgar. [31] Google Scholar
Simonson, I. (1989). Choice based on reasons: The case of attraction and compromise effects. Journal of Consumer Research, 16, 158–174. [32] Google Scholar
Simonson, I. (1992). The influence of anticipating regret and responsibility on purchase decisions. Journal of Consumer Research, 19, 105–118. [21] Google Scholar
Simonson, I., & Nye, P. (1992). The effect of accountability on susceptibility to decision errors. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 51, 416–446. [32] Google Scholar
Simonson, I., & Staw, B. M. (1992). Deescalation strategies: A comparison of techniques for reducing commitment to losing courses of action. Journal of Applied Psychology, 77, 419–426. [32] Google Scholar
Sinclair, R. C., & Mark, M. M. (1992). The influence of mood state on judgment and action: Effects on persuasion, categorization, social justice, person perception, and judgmental accuracy. In The construction of social judgment (pp. 165–193), L. L. Martin & A. Tesser (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [29] Google Scholar
Sinclair, R. C., Mark, M. M., & Clore, G. L. (1994). Mood-related persuasion depends on misattributions. Social Cognition, 12, 309–326. [29] Google Scholar
Singer, E., & Endreny, P. M. (1994). Reporting on risk. New York: Russell Sage Foundation. [41] Google Scholar
Singer, J. A., & Salovey, P. (1988). Mood and memory: Evaluating the network theory of affect. Clinical Psychology Review, 8, 211–251. [29] Google Scholar
Skov, R. B., & Sherman, S. J. (1986). Information-gathering processes: Diagnosticity, hypothesis-confirmatory strategies, and perceived hypothesis confirmation. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 22, 93–121. [6] Google Scholar
Skyrms, B. (1986). Choice & chance: An introduction to inductive logic (3rd ed.). Belmont, CA: Wadsworth. [22, 24] Google Scholar
Slater, J. (1996). Theory and method in health audience segmentation. Journal of Health Communication, 1, 267–283. [41] Google Scholar
Sloan, R. G. (1996). Do stock prices fully reflect information in accruals and cash flows about future earnings? Accounting Review, 71, 289–315. [38] Google Scholar
Sloman, S. A. (1993). Feature-based induction. Cognitive Psychology, 25, 231–280. [22] Google Scholar
Sloman, S. A. (1996). The empirical case for two systems of reasoning. Psychological Bulletin, 119, 3–22. [Introduction, 2, 22, 23, 24] Google Scholar
Sloman, S. A. (1998). Categorical inference is not a tree: The myth of inheritance hierarchies. Cognitive Psychology, 35, 1–33. [22] Google Scholar
Sloman, S., & Over, D. E. (in press). Probability judgment: From the inside and out. To appear in D. E. Over (Ed.), Evolution and the psychology of thinking: The debate. Hove, U.K.: Psychology Press. [Introduction] Google Scholar
Sloman, S. A., Slovak, L., & Over, D. (2000). Frequency illusions and other fallacies. Manuscript under review, Brown University. [Introduction] Google Scholar
Slovic, P. (1967). The relative influence of probabilities and payoffs upon perceived risk of a gamble. Psychonomic Science, 9, 223–224. [6] Google Scholar
Slovic, P. (1987). Perception of risk. Science, 236, 280–285. [23, 41] Google Scholar
Slovic, P. (1995). The construction of preference. American Psychologist, 50, 364–371. [23, 24] Google Scholar
Slovic, P. (2000). Rational actors and rational fools: The influence of affect on judgment and decision making. Roger Williams University Law Review, 6, 167–216. [23] Google Scholar
Slovic, P. (2001). Cigarette smokers: Rational actors or rational fools. In Smoking: Risk, perception, and policy (pp. 97–124), P. Slovic (Ed.). Thousand Oaks, CA.: Sage. [23] Google Scholar
Slovic, P., & Fischhoff, B. (1977). On the psychology of experimental surprises. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 3, 544–551. [5, 6, 37] Google Scholar
Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B., & Lichtenstein, S. (1976). Cognitive processes and societal risk taking. In Cognition and social behavior, J. S. Carroll & J. W. Payne (Eds.). Potomac, MD: Erlbaum. [1] Google Scholar
Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B., & Lichtenstein, S. (1977). Behavioral decision theory. Annual Review of Psychology, 28, 1–39. [24] Google Scholar
Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B., & Lichtenstein, S. (1980). Facts and fears: Understanding perceived risk. In Societal risk assessment: How safe is safe enough? (pp. 181–214), R. Schwing & W. A. Albers, Jr. (Eds.). New York: Plenum Press. [41] Google Scholar
Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B., & Lichtenstein, S. (1982). Response mode, framing, and information-processing effects in risk assessment. In New directions for methodology of social and behavioral science: Question framing and response consistency (pp. 21–36), R. Hogarth (Ed.). San Francisco: Jossey-Bass. [12] Google Scholar
Slovic, P., Layman, M., Kraus, N., Flynn, J., Chalmers, J., & Gesell, G. (1991). Perceived risk, stigma, and potential economic impacts of a high-level nuclear waste repository in Nevada. Risk Analysis, 11, 683–696. [23] Google Scholar
Slovic, P., & Lichtenstein, S. (1968). Relative importance of probabilities and payoffs in risk-taking. Journal of Experimental Psychology Monograph 78 (3, Pt. 2), 1–18. [6,12, 23, 26] Google Scholar
Slovic, P., & Lichtenstein, S. (1971). Comparison of Bayesian and regression approaches to the study of information processing in judgment. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Performance, 6, 649–744. [8,12,13] Google Scholar
Slovic, P., & Lichtenstein, S. (1983). Preference reversals: A broader perspective. American Economic Review, 73, 596–605. [6,12] Google Scholar
Slovic, P., Lichtenstein, S., & Fischhoff, B. (1984). Modeling the societal impact of fatal accidents. Management Science, 30, 464–474. [41] Google Scholar
Slovic, P., MacGregor, D. G., Malmfors, T., & Purchase, I. F. H. (1999). Influence of affective processes on toxicologists' judgments of risk (Report No. 99–2). Eugene, OR: Decision Research. [23] Google Scholar
Slovic, P., & MacPhillamy, D. (1974). Dimensional commensurability and cue utilization in comparative judgment. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance II, 172–194. [12] Google Scholar
Slovic, P., Monahan, J., & MacGregor, D. M. (2000). Violence risk assessment and risk communication: The effects of using actual cases, providing instructions, and employing probability vs. frequency formats. Law and Human Behavior, 24 (3), 271–296. [23] Google Scholar
Slovic, P., & Tversky A. (1974). Who accepts Savage's axiom? Behavioral Science, 19, 368–373. [24] Google Scholar
Slugoski, B. R., & Wilson, A. E. (1998). Contribution of conversation skills to the production of judgmental errors. European Journal of Social Psychology, 28, 575–601. [24] Google Scholar
Smith, E. E., & Medin, D. L. (1981). Categories and concepts. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. [1, 20] Google Scholar
Smith, G. (1997). The political impact of name sounds. Unpublished manuscript, Eastern Washington University, Ellensburg. [23] Google Scholar
Smith, J. F., & Kida, T. (1991). Heuristics and biases: Expertise and task realism in auditing. Psychological Bulletin, 109, 472–489. [39] Google Scholar
Smith, M., & Ferrell, W. R. (1983). The effect of base rate on calibration of subjective probability for true-false questions: Model and experiment. In Analyzing and aiding decisions, P. Humphreys, O. Svenson, & A. Vari (Eds.). Amsterdam: North-Holland. [39] Google Scholar
Smith, S. M., & Levin, I. P (1996). Need for cognition and choice framing effects. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 9, 283–290. [24] Google Scholar
Smith, V. L. (1994). Economics in the laboratory. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 8, 113–132. [42] Google Scholar
Snell, J., Gibbs, B. J., & Varey C. (1995). Intuitive hedonics: Consumer beliefs about the dynamics of liking. Journal of Consumer Psychology, 4, 33–60. [16] Google Scholar
Sniezek, J. A., Paese, P. W., & Switzer, F. S. (1990). The effect of choosing on confidence in choice. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 46, 264–282. [15,39] Google Scholar
Sniezek, J. A., & Switzer, F. S. (1989). The over-underconfidence paradox: High pi's but poor unlucky me. Paper presented at the Judgment and Decision Making Society Annual Meeting in Atlanta, Georgia. [13] Google Scholar
Snortum, J. R., & Wilding, F. W. (1971). Temporal estimation of heart rate as a function of repression sensitization score and probability of shock. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 37, 417–422. [30] Google Scholar
Snyder, C. R. (1989). Reality negotiation: From excuses to hope and beyond. Journal of Social and Clinical Psychology, 8, 130–157. [19] Google Scholar
Snyder, C. R., & Higgins, R. L. (1988). Excuses: Their affective role in the negotiation of reality. Psychological Bulletin, 104, 23–35. [14,19] Google Scholar
Snyder, C. R., Shenkel, R. J., & Lowery C. R. (1977). Acceptance of personality interpretations: The “Barnum effect” and beyond. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 45, 104–114. [20] Google Scholar
Snyder, M., & Swann, W. B., Jr. (1978a). Behavioral confirmation in social interaction: from social perception to social reality. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 14, 148–162. [6] Google Scholar
Snyder, M., & Swann, W. B., Jr. (1978b). Hypothesis-testing processes in social interaction. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 36, 1202–1212. [Introduction, 7, 9] Google Scholar
Snyder, W. (1978). Horse racing: Testing the efficient markets model. Journal of Finance, 33 (4), 1109–1118. [39] Google Scholar
Soldat, A. S., & Sinclair, R. C. (2001). Colors, smiles, and frowns: External affective cues can directly affect responses to persuasive communications in a mood-like manner without affecting mood. Unpublished manuscript; University of Alberta. [29] Google Scholar
Soldat, A. S., Sinclair, R. C, & Mark, M. M. (1997). Color as an environmental processing cue: External affective cues can directly affect processing strategy without affecting mood. Social Cognition, 15, 55–71. [29] Google Scholar
Soll, J. B. (1996). Determinants of overconfidence and miscalibration: The roles of random error and ecological structure. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 65, 117–137. [39] Google Scholar
Spearman, C. (1904). General intelligence, objectively determined and measured. American Journal of Psychology, 15, 201–293. [24] Google Scholar
Spearman, C. (1927). The abilities of man. London: Macmillan. [24] Google Scholar
Spinoza, B. (1982). The Ethics and selected letters. (S. Feldman, Ed.; S. Shirley, Trans.). Indianapolis: Hackett Publishing Co. (Original work published 1672) [9] Google Scholar
Spranca, M., Minsk, E., & Baron, J. (1991). Omission and commission in judgment and choice. Journal of Experimental and Social Psychology, 27, 76–105. [21] Google Scholar
Spreen, O. (1981). The relationship between learning disability, neurological impairment, and delinquency: Results of a follow-up study. Journal of Nervous and Mental Disease, 169, 791–799. [40] Google Scholar
Sprinchorn, E. (1964). Ibsen: Letters and Speeches. New York: Hill and Wang. Springer, K., & Belk, A. (1994). The role of physical contact and association in early contamination sensitivity. Developmental Psychology, 30, 864–868. [11] Google Scholar
Sptezler, C. S., & Stael von Holstein, C. A. S. (1975). Probability encoding in decision analysis. Management Science, 22, 340–358. [37] Google Scholar
Srull, T. K. (1983). Affect and memory: The impact of affective reactions in advertising on the representation of product information in memory. In Advances in consumer research (Vol. 10), R. Bagozzi & A. Tybout (Eds.). Ann Arbor: Association for Consumer Research. [29] Google Scholar
Srull, T. K. (1984). The effects of subjective affective states on memory and judgment. In Advances in consumer research (Vol. 11, pp. 530–533), T. Kinnear (Ed.). Provo: Association for Consumer Research. [29] Google Scholar
Srull, T. K., & Wyer, R. S. (1979). The role of category accessibility in the interpretation of information about persons: Some determinants and implications. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 37, 1660–1672. [Introduction] Google Scholar
Srull, T. K., & Wyer, R. S. (1980). Category accessibility and social perception: Some implications for the study of person memory and interpersonal judgments. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 38, 841–856. [Introduction] Google Scholar
Stanovich, K. E. (1986). How to think straight about psychology. Glenview, IL: Scott, Foresman, & Co. [Introduction] Google Scholar
Stanovich, K. E. (1999). Who is rational? Studies of individual differences in reasoning. Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [2, 24] Google Scholar
Stanovich, K. E., & West, R. F. (1997). Reasoning independently of prior belief and individual differences in actively open-minded thinking. Journal of Educational Psychology, 89, 342–357. [24] Google Scholar
Stanovich, K. E., & West, R. F. (1998a). Cognitive ability and variation in selection task performance. Thinking and Reasoning, 4, 193–230. [24] Google Scholar
Stanovich, K. E., & West, R. F. (1998b). Individual differences in framing and conjunction effects. Thinking and Reasoning, 4, 289–317. [24] Google Scholar
Stanovich, K. E., & West, R. F. (1998c). Individual differences in rational thought. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 127, 161–188. [24] Google Scholar
Stanovich, K. E., & West, R. F. (1999). Discrepancies between normative and descriptive models of decision making and the understanding/acceptance principle. Cognitive Psychology, 38, 349–385. [24] Google Scholar
Stanovich, K. E., & West, R. F. (2000). Individual differences in reasoning: Implications for the rationality debate. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 23, 645–665. [Introduction] Google Scholar
Stapel, D. A., Martin, L. L., & Schwarz, N. (1998). The smell of bias: What instigates correction processes in social judgments? Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 24, 797–806. [10] Google Scholar
Starmer, C, & Sugden, R. (1993). Testing for juxtaposition and event-splitting effects. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 6, 235–254. [25] Google Scholar
Starr, C. (1969). Societal benefit versus technological risk. Science, 165, 1232–1238. [41] Google Scholar
Staw, B. (1980). Rationality and justification in organizational life. In Research in organizational behavior (Vol. 2, pp. 1–57), B. Staw & L. Cummings (Eds.). Greenwich, CT: JAI Press. [32] Google Scholar
Staw, B. M., & Ross, J. (1980). Commitment in an experimenting society: A study of the attribution of leadership from administrative scenarios. Journal of Applied Psychology, 65, 249–260. [32] Google Scholar
Stael von Holstein, C.-A. S. (1972). Probabilistic forecasting: An experiment related to the stock market. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 8, 139–158. [13] Google Scholar
Stazyk, E. H., Ashcraft, M. H., & Hamman, M. S. (1982). A network approach to mental multiplication. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 8, 320–335. [22] Google Scholar
Steele, C. (1988). The psychology of self-affirmation: Sustaining the integrity of the self. In Advances in experimental social psychology (Vol. 21, pp. 261–303), M. Zanna (Ed.), New York: Academic Press. [16] Google Scholar
Stein, E. (1996). Without good reason: The rationality debate in philosophy and cognitive science. Oxford, U.K.: Oxford University Press. [24] Google Scholar
Stein, R. I., & Nemeroff, C. J. (1995). Moral overtones of food: Judgements of other based on what they eat. Personality & Social Psychology Bulletin, 21, 480–490. [11] Google Scholar
Stepper, S., & Strack, F. (1993). Proprioceptive determinants of emotional and nonemotional feelings. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 64, 211–220. [5] Google Scholar
Sternberg, R. J., & Kaufman, J. C. (1998). Human abilities. Annual Review of Psychology, 49, 479–502. [24] Google Scholar
Stevens, S. S. (1957). On the psychophysical law. Psychological Review, 64, 153–181. [2] Google Scholar
Stevens, S. S. (1975). Psychophysics: Introduction to its perceptual, neural, and social prospects. New York: John Wiley & Sons. [2] Google Scholar
Stevenson, H. N. C. (1954). Status evaluation in the Hindu caste system. Journal of the Royal Anthropological Institute of Great Britain and Ireland, 84, 45–65. [11] Google Scholar
Stewart, T. R., & Lusk, C. M. (1994). Seven components of judgmental forecasting skill: Implications for research and the improvement of forecasts. Journal of Forecasting, 13, 575–599. [39] Google Scholar
Stewart, T. R., Roebber, P. J., & Bosart, L. F. (1997). The importance of the task in analyzing expert judgment. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 69, 205–219. [39] Google Scholar
Stich, S. P. (1990). The fragmentation of reason. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. [24] Google Scholar
Stich, S. P., & Nisbett, R. E. (1980). Justification and the psychology of human reasoning. Philosophy of Science, 47, 188–202. [24] Google Scholar
Stickel, S. E. (1992). Reputation and performance among security analysts. Journal of Finance, 47, 1811–1836. [38] Google Scholar
Stickel, S. E. (1995). The anatomy of the performance of buy and sell recommendations. Financial Analysts Journal, 51, 25–39. [38] Google Scholar
Stigler, S. M. (1977). Annals of Statistics, 5, 1055–1098. [37] Google Scholar
Storms, M. (1973). Videotape and the attribution process: Reversing actors' and observers' points of view. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 27, 165–175. [20] Google Scholar
Strack, F. (1992). The different routes to social judgment: Experiential versus informational strategies. In The construction of social judgments (pp. 249–276), L. L. Martin & A. Tesser (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [5] Google Scholar
Strack, F., Martin, L. L., & Schwarz, N. (1988). Priming and communication: the social determinants of information use in judgments of life-satisfaction. European Journal of Social Psychology, 18, 429–442. [2] Google Scholar
Strack, F., & Mussweiler, T. (1997). Explaining the enigmatic anchoring effect: mechanisms of selective accessibility. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 73, 437–446. [6, 7, 29] Google Scholar
Suantak, L., Bolger, F., & Ferrell, W. R. (1996). The hard-easy effect in subjective probability calibration. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 67, 201–221. [39] Google Scholar
Sudman, S., Bradburn, N. M., & Schwarz, N. (1996). Thinking about answers: The application of cognitive processes to survey methodology. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass, Inc. [6] Google Scholar
Suedfeld, P. (1997). Reactions to societal trauma: Distress and/or eustress. Political Psychology, 18, 849–861. [16] Google Scholar
Suedfeld, P., & Tetlock, P. E. (2001). Cognitive styles. In Blackwell international handbook of social psychology: Intra-individual processes, (Vol. 1, pp. 284–304), A. Tesser & N. Schwartz. London: Blackwell Publishers. [42] Google Scholar
Sugden, R. (1985). Regret, recrimination and rationality. Theory and Decision, 19, 77–99. [21] Google Scholar
Suh, E., Diener, E., & Fujita, F (1996). Events and subjective well-being: Only recent events matter. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 70, 1091–1102. [16] Google Scholar
Suinn, R. (1976). Body thinking: psychology for Olympic champs. Psychology Today, 10, 38–43. [4] Google Scholar
Suls, J. M., & Miller, R. L. (1977). Social comparison processes: Theoretical and empirical perspectives. New York: Wiley. [20, 35] Google Scholar
Suppe, F. (1973). The structure of scientific theories. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. [42] Google Scholar
Suppes, P. (1974). The measurement of belief. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, B, 36, 160–191. [25] Google Scholar
Suppes, P. (1975). Approximate probability and expectation of gambles. Erkenntnis, 9, 153–161. [1] Google Scholar
Sutton, S. R., & Eiser, J. R. (1990). The decision to wear a seat belt: The role of cognitive factors, fear, and prior behavior. Psychology and Health, 4, 111–123. [17] Google Scholar
Svenson, O. (1981). Are we all less risky and more skillful than our fellow driver? Acta Psychologica, 47, 143–148. [18, 27] Google Scholar
Swann, W. B., Jr., & Predmore, S. C. (1985). Intimates as agents of social support: Sources of consolation or despair? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 49, 1607–1617. [9] Google Scholar
Swets, J. A. (1986). Form of empirical ROCs in discrimination and diagnostic tasks: Implications for theory and measurement of performance. Psychological Bulletin, 99, 181–198. [15] Google Scholar
Switzer, F., & Sniezek, J. A. (1991). Judgment processes in motivation: Anchoring and adjustment effects on judgment and behavior. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 49, 208–229. [6, 7, 8] Google Scholar
Sa, W., West, R. F., & Stanovich, K. E. (1999). The domain specificity and generality of belief bias: Searching for a generalizable critical thinking skill. Journal of Educational Psychology, 91, 497–510. [24] Google Scholar
Tafarodi, R. W., & Swann, W. B., Jr. (1995). Self-liking and self-competence as dimensions of global self-esteem: Initial validation of a measure. Journal of Personality Assessment, 65, 322–342. [16] Google Scholar
Tait, R., & Silver, R. C. (1989). Coming to terms with major negative life events. In Unintended thought (pp. 351–382), J. S. Uleman & J. A. Bargh (Eds.). New York: Guilford Press. [35] Google Scholar
Takemura, K. (1994). Influence of elaboration on the framing of decision. Journal of Psychology, 128, 33–39. [24] Google Scholar
Tambiah, S. J. (1990). Magic, science, religion, and the scope of rationality. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [11] Google Scholar
Tanenhaus, M. K., Spivey-Knowlton, M. J., Eberhard, K., & Sedivy J. C. (1995). Integration of visual and linguistic information in spoken language comprehension. Science, 268, 1632–1634. [8] Google Scholar
Tanford, J. A. (1990). The law and psychology of jury instructions. Nebraska Law Review, 69, 71–111. [10] Google Scholar
Tanner, W. P. Jr., & Swets, J. A. (1954). A decision-making theory of visual detection. Psychological Review, 61, 401–409. [39] Google Scholar
Tape, T. G., Heckerling, PS., Ornato, J. P., & Wigton, R. S. (1991). Use of clinical judgment analysis to explain regional variations in physicians' accuracies in diagnosing pneumonia. Medical Decision Making, 11, 189–197. [39] Google Scholar
Tauber, T. M. (1998). How to do business - Chinese and Western negotiation cultures. Transition, 9 (6), 8–10. [15] Google Scholar
Taylor, B. N. (1982). NBSIR 81–2426, National Bureau of Standards. [37] Google Scholar
Taylor, B. N., Parker, W H., & Langenberg, D. N. (1969). The fundamental constants and quantum electrodynamics. New York: Academic Press. [37] Google Scholar
Taylor, K. F., & Sluckin, W. (1964). Flocking in domestic chicks. Nature, 201, 108–109. [30] Google Scholar
Taylor, K. M., Shepperd, J. A. (1998). Bracing for the worst: Severity, testing, and feedback timing as moderators of the optimistic bias. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 24, 915–926. [19] Google Scholar
Taylor, S. E. (1982). The availability bias in social perception and interaction. In Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases (pp. 190–200), D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.). Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [5] Google Scholar
Taylor, S. E. (1983). Adjustment to threatening events: A theory of cognitive adaptation. American Psychologist, 38, 1161–1174. [16] Google Scholar
Taylor, S. E. (1991). Asymmetrical effects of positive and negative events: The mobilization-minimization hypothesis. Psychological Bulletin, 110, 67–85. [16] Google Scholar
Taylor, S. E., & Armor, D. A. (1996). Positive illusions and coping with adversity, Journal of Personality, 64, 873–898. [16] Google Scholar
Taylor, S. E., & Brown, J. (1988). Illusion and well-being: A social psychological perspective on mental health. Psychological Bulletin, 103, 193–210. [10,13,14,16,17,18,36,39] Google Scholar
Taylor, S. E., & Fiske, S. T. (1978). Salience, attention and attribution: Top of the head phenomena. In Advances in experimental social psychology (Vol. 11, pp. 249–288), L. Berkowitz (Ed.). New York: Academic Press. [20] Google Scholar
Taylor, S. E., & Gollwitzer, P. M. (1995). The effects of mindset on positive illusions. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 69, 213–226. [19] Google Scholar
Taylor, S. E., Kemeny M. E., Aspinwall, L. G., Schneider, S. C, Rodriguez, R., & Herbert, M. (1992). Optimism, coping, psychological distress, and high-risk sexual behavior among men at risk for AIDS. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 63, 460–473. [17,19] Google Scholar
Taylor, S. E., & Lobel, M. (1989). Social comparison activity under threat: Downward evaluation and upward contacts. Psychological Review, 96, 569–575. [19, 35] Google Scholar
Taylor, S. E., Pham, L. B., Rivkin, I. D., & Armor, D. A. (1998). Harnessing the imagination: Mental simulation, self-regulation, and coping. American Psychologist, 53, 429–439. [14] Google Scholar
Taylor, S., & Rachman, S. J. (1994). Stimulus estimation and the overprediction of fear. British Journal of Clinical Psychology, 33, 173–181. [16] Google Scholar
Taylor, S. E., Wood, J. V., & Lichtman, R. R. (1983). It could be worse: Selective evaluation as a response to victimization. Journal of Social Issues, 39, 19–40. [19] Google Scholar
Teigen, K. H. (1974a). Overestimation of subjective probabilities. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology, 15, 56–62. [25] Google Scholar
Teigen, K. H. (1974b). Subjective sampling distributions and the additivity of estimates. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology, 15, 50–55. [25] Google Scholar
Teigen, K. H. (1983). Studies in subjective probability III: The unimportance of alternatives. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology, 24, 97–105. [25] Google Scholar
Telch, M. J., Valentiner, D., & Bolte, M. (1994). Proximity to safety and its effects in fear prediction bias. Behavior Research and Therapy, 32, 747–751. [16] Google Scholar
Tesser, A., & Campbell, J. (1983). Self-definition and self-evaluation maintenance. In Social psychological perspectives on the self (Vol. 2, pp. 1–31), J. M. Suls & A. Greenwald (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [9] Google Scholar
Tetlock, P. E. (1983a). Accountability and complexity of thought. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology: Attitudes and Social Cognition, 45, 74–83. [32] Google Scholar
Tetlock, P. E. (1983b). Accountability and perseverance of first impressions. Social Psychology Quarterly, 46, 285–292. [32] Google Scholar
Tetlock, P. E. (1985). Accountability: A social check on the fundamental attribution error. Social Psychology Quarterly, 48, 227–236. [32] Google Scholar
Tetlock, P. E. (1991). Learning in U.S. and Soviet foreign policy: In search of an elusive concept. In Learning in U.S. and Soviet foreign policy, (pp. 20–62). G. Breslauer & P. Tetlock (Eds.). Boulder, CO: Westview. [42] Google Scholar
Tetlock, P. E. (1992a). Good judgment in world politics: Three psychological perspectives. Political Psychology, 13, 517–540. [42] Google Scholar
Tetlock, P. E. (1992b). The impact of accountability on judgment and choice: Toward a social contingency model. In Advances in experimental social psychology (Vol. 25, pp. 331–376), M. P. Zanna (Ed.). New York: Academic Press. [19, 32] Google Scholar
Tetlock, P. E. (1998). Close-call counterfactuals and belief system defenses: I was not almost wrong but I was almost right. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 75, 230–242. [42] Google Scholar
Tetlock, P. E. (1998). Losing our religion: On the collapse of precise normative standards in complex accountability systems. In Influence processes in organizations: Emerging themes in theory and research (pp. 121–145), R. Kramer & M. Neale (Eds.). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage. [32] Google Scholar
Tetlock, P. E. (1999). Theory-driven reasoning about possible pasts and probable futures: Are we prisoners of our preconceptions? American Journal of Political Science, 43, 335–366. [42] Google Scholar
Tetlock, P. E. (2000). Cognitive biases and organizational correctives: Do both disease and cure depend on the political beholder? Administrative Science Quarterly, 45, 293–316. [32] Google Scholar
Tetlock, P. E. (in press). Social-functionalist metaphors for judgment and choice: The intuitive politician, theologian, and prosecuter. Psychological Review. [32] Google Scholar
Tetlock, P. E., & Belkin, A. (1996). Counterfactual thought experiments in world politics: Logical, methodological, and psychological perspectives. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. [42] Google Scholar
Tetlock, P. E., & Boettger, R. (1989). Accountability: A social magnifier of the dilution effect. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 57, 388–398. [32, 42] Google Scholar
Tetlock, P. E., & Boettger, R. (1994). Accountability amplifies the status quo effect when change creates victims. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 7, 1–23. [32] Google Scholar
Tetlock, P. E., & Kim, J. (1987). Accountability and judgment in a personality prediction task. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology: Attitudes and Social Cognition, 52, 700–709. [32] Google Scholar
Tetlock, P. E., Kristel, O., Elson, B., Green, M., & Lerner, J. (2000). The psychologyof the unthinkable: Taboo trade-offs, forbidden base rates, and heretical counterfactuals. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 78, 853–870. [32] Google Scholar
Tetlock, P. E., & Lebow, R. N. (in press). Poking counterfactual holes in covering laws: Cognitive styles and historical reasoning. American Political Science Review. [42] Google Scholar
Tetlock, P. E., Peterson, R., & Lerner, J. (1996). Revisiting the value pluralism model: Incorporating social content and context postulates. In Ontario symposium on social and personality psychology: Values (Vol. 8, pp. 25–51), C. Seligman, J. Olson, & M. Zanna (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Earlbaum. [32] Google Scholar
Tetlock, P. E., Skitka, L., & Boettger, R. (1989). Social and cognitive strategies for coping with accountability: Conformity, complexity, and bolstering. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 57, 632–640. [32] Google Scholar
Thagard, P. (1982). From the descriptive to the normative in philosophy and logic. Philosophy of Science, 49, 24–42. [24] Google Scholar
Thagard, P., & Nisbett, R. E. (1982). Variability and confirmation. Philosophical Studies, 42, 379–394. [28] Google Scholar
Thaler, R. (1993). Quasi-rational economics. New York: Russell Sage. [41] Google Scholar
Thaler, R. H., & Ziemba, W. T. (1988). Parimutural betting markets: Racetracks and lotteries. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2 (2), 161–174. [39] Google Scholar
Thomas, K. (1983). Man and the natural world. New York: Pantheon Books. [11] Google Scholar
Thompson, L. (1995). They saw a negotiation: Partisanship and involvement. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 68, 839–853. [32] Google Scholar
Thompson, L., & Loewenstein, G. (1992). Egocentric interpretations of fairness and negotiation. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 51, 176–197. [36] Google Scholar
Thurstone, L. L. (1928). Attitudes can be measured. American Journal of Sociology, 33, 529–554. [23] Google Scholar
Tice, D. M. (1992). Self-presentation and self-concept change: The looking glass self as a magnifying glass. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 63, 435–451. [9] Google Scholar
Tiedens, L. Z., & Linton, S. (in press). Judgment under emotional certainty and uncertainty: The effects of specific emotions on information processing. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. [29] Google Scholar
Tolin, D. F., Brigidi, B. D., & Foa, E. B. (1999). Disgust sensitivity in obsessive compulsive disorder. Paper presented at meeting of Association for Advancement of Behavior Therapy. [11] Google Scholar
Tolman, E. C. (1937). Purposive behavior in man and animals. New York: Appleton-Century-Crofts. [41] Google Scholar
Tooby, J., & Cosmides, L. (in press). Ecological rationality and the multimodular mind. Grounding normative theories in adaptive problems. In Evolutionary psychology: Foundational papers, J. Tooby & L. Cosmides (Eds.). Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. [31] Google Scholar
Totterdell, P., Parkinson, B., Briner, R. B., & Reynolds, S. (1997). Forecasting feelings: The accuracy and effects of self-predictions of mood. Journal of Social Behaviour and Personality, 12, 631–650. [16] Google Scholar
Trabasso, T., Rollins, H., & Shaughnessey, E. (1971). Storage and verification stages in processing concepts. Cognitive psychology, 2, 239–289. [9] Google Scholar
Treadwell, J., & Nelson, T. O. (1996). Availability of information and the aggregation of confidence in prior decisions. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 68, 13–27. [Introduction] Google Scholar
Trope, Y. (1986). Identification and inferential processes in dispositional attribution. Psychological Review, 93, 239–257. [9] Google Scholar
Trope, Y., & Bassok, M. (1982). Confirmatory and diagnosing strategies in social information gathering. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 43, 22–34. [7] Google Scholar
Trope, Y., & Liberman, N. (2000). Temporal construal and time-dependent changes in preference. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 79, 876–889. [14] Google Scholar
Tucker, L. R. (1964). A suggested alternative formulation in the developments by Hursch, Hammond, and Hursch, and by Hammond, Hursch, and Todd. Psychological Review, 71 (6), 528–530. [39] Google Scholar
Tucker, W. (1987). Where do the homeless come from? National Review, Sept. 25, pp. 34–44. [31] Google Scholar
Turnbull, W. (1981). Naive conceptions of free will and the deterministic paradox. Canadian Journal of Behavioural Science, 13, 1–13. [35] Google Scholar
Tversky, A. (1972). Elimination by aspects: A theory of choice. Psychological Review, 79, 281–299. [23, 30, 31] Google Scholar
Tversky, A. (1975). A critique of expected utility theory: Descriptive and normative considerations. Erkenntnis, 9, 163–173. [24] Google Scholar
Tversky, A. (1977). Features of similarity. Psychological Review, 84, 327–352. [1, 3, 6, 12, 32] Google Scholar
Tversky, A., & Craig, F. (1995). “Weighting risk and uncertainty.” Psychological review, 102 (2), 269–283. [42] Google Scholar
Tversky, A., & Fox, C. R. (1995). Weighing risk and uncertainty. Psychological Review, 102, 269–283. [25, 27] Google Scholar
Tversky, A., & Griffin, D. (1991). Endowment and contrast in judgments of well-being. In Strategy and choice (pp. 297–318), R. J. Zeckhauser (Ed.). Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. [35] Google Scholar
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1971). Belief in the law of small numbers. Psychological Bulletin, 76, 105–110. [1, 2, 13, 20, 28, 33] Google Scholar
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1973a). Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability. Cognitive Psychology, 5, 207–232. [Introduction, 1, 2, 4, 5, 20, 21, 28, 37] Google Scholar
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1973b). Response-induced reversals of preference in gambling: an extended replication in Las Vegas. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 101, 16–20. [12] Google Scholar
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgement under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science, 185, 1124–1131. [2, 6, 7, 8, 9, 12, 13, 16, 18, 19, 23, 26, 28, 29, 32, 33, 34, 36] Google Scholar
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1980). Causal schemas in judgments under uncertainty. In Progress in social psychology, M. Fishbein (Ed.). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. [1] Google Scholar
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1981). The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice. Science, 211, 453–458. [1, 24, 37] Google Scholar
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1982a). Causal schemas in judgments under uncertainty. In Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 117–128), D. Kahneman, P. Slavic, & A. Tversky (Eds.). New York: Cambridge University Press. [Introduction, 20] Google Scholar
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1982b). Evidential impact of base rates. In Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 153–160), D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.). Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [24,39] Google Scholar
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1982c). Judgments of and by representativeness. In Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases, D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.). New York: Cambridge University Press. [1, 2] Google Scholar
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1983). Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment. Psychological Review, 90, 293–315. [Introduction, 2, 3,14, 22, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 30, 33] Google Scholar
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1986). Rational choice and the framing of decisions. Part 2. Journal of Business, 59, 251–278. [2, 25, 27] Google Scholar
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1992). Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 5, 297–323. [27] Google Scholar
Tversky, A., & Koehler, D. J. (1994). Support theory: A nonextensional representation of subjective probability. Psychological Review, 101, 547–567. [14, 25, 26, 27, 39] Google Scholar
Tversky, A., & Sattath, S. (1979). Preference trees. Psychological Review 86, 542–573. [25] Google Scholar
Tversky, A., Sattath, S., & Slovic, P. (1988). Contingent weighting in judgment and choice. Psychological Review, 95, 371–384. [6,12] Google Scholar
Tversky, A., Slovic, P., & Kahneman, D. (1990). The causes of preference reversal. American Economic Review, 80, 204–217. [12, 23] Google Scholar
Tversky, A., & Wakker, P. (1995). Risk attitudes and decision weights. Econometrica, 63, 1255–1280. [27] Google Scholar
Tyler, T. R. (1990). Why people obey the law. New Haven: Yale University Press. [41] Google Scholar
Tylor, E. B. (1871/1974). Primitive culture: Researches into the development of mythology, philosophy, religion, art and custom. New York: Gordon Press. (Original work published 1871.) [11] Google Scholar
U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (1981). Fault tree handbook (Catalog No. NUREG-0492) Washington, DC: NRC. [37] Google Scholar
Vaillant, G. (1993). The wisdom of the ego. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. [16] Google Scholar
Vallone, R. P., Griffin, D. W., Lin, S., & Ross, L. (1990). Overconfident prediction of future actions and outcomes by self and others. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 58, 582–592. [13,14] Google Scholar
Vallone, R. P., Ross, L., & Lepper, M. R. (1985). The hostile media phenomenon: Biased perception and perceptions of media bias in coverage of the Beirut massacre. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 49, 577–585. [36] Google Scholar
Van Boven, L., Dunning, D., & Loewenstein, G. (2000). Egocentric empathy gaps between owners and buyers: misperceptions of the endowment effect. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 79, 66–76. [7] Google Scholar
Van Boven, L., Kamada, A., & Gilovich, T. (1999). The perceiver as perceived: Everyday intuitions about the correspondence bias. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 77, 1188–1199. [36] Google Scholar
van der Pligt, J., Eiser, J. R., & Spears, R. (1987). Comparative judgments and preferences: The influence of the number of response alternatives. British Journal of Social Psychology, 26, 269–280. [25] Google Scholar
Van Wallendael, L. R., & Hastic, R. (1990). Tracing the footsteps of Sherlock Holmes: Cognitive representations of hypothesis testing. Memory & Cognition, 18, 240–250. [25] Google Scholar
Varey, C. A., Griffin, D. W., & James, M. (1998) The effect of context on confidence. Unpublished manuscript, University of Sussex. [39] Google Scholar
Vargas Llosa, M. (1986). My son the Rastafarian. The New York Times Magazine, February 16, pp. 20–28, 30, 41–43, 67. [30] Google Scholar
Vaughn, L. A. (1997). Effects of expertise on use of recall experiences and recalled information for social judgments. Unpublished Doctoral dissertation, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI. [5] Google Scholar
Verschoth, A. (1992, July 22). Who will win what. Sports Illustrated. [35] Google Scholar
Vertzberger, Y. (1998). Risk taking and decision making. Stanford: Stanford University Press. [41] Google Scholar
Viscusi, W. K. (1992). Smoking: Making the risky decision. New York: Oxford University Press. [23] Google Scholar
von Mises, R. (1928). Probability, statistics and truth. 1954 translation, New York: Macmillan. [Introduction] Google Scholar
von Winterfeldt, D., & Edwards, W. (1986). Decision analysis and behavioral research. New York: Cambridge University Press. [13, 31, 41] Google Scholar
Vygotsky, L. S. (1934/1987). Thinking and speech. In The Collected Works of L. S. Vygotsky. Vol. 1: Problems of General Psychology (pp. 101–120), R. W. Rieber & A. S. Carton (Eds.). New York: Plenum Press. [22] Google Scholar
Wagenaar, W. A. (1972). Generation of random sequences by human subjects. A critical survey of literature. Psychological Bulletin, 77, 65–72. [33] Google Scholar
Wagenaar, W. A., & Keren, G. B. (1985). Calibration of probability assessments by professional blackjack dealers, statistical experts, and lay people. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 36, 406–416. [39] Google Scholar
Wagenaar, W. A., & Keren, G. B. (1986). Does the expert know? The reliability of predictions and confidence ratings of experts. In Intelligent Decision Support in Process Environments (pp. 87–103), E. Hollnagel, G. Manici, & D. D. Woods (Eds.). Berlin: Springer Verlag. [13, 39] Google Scholar
Wagener, J. J., & Taylor, S. E. (1986). What else could I have done? Patients' responses to failed treatment decisions. Health Psychology, 5, 481–496. [19] Google Scholar
Wainer, H. (1978). On the sensitivity of regression and regressors. Psychological Bulletin, 85, 267–273. [40] Google Scholar
Walley, P. (1991). Statistical reasoning with imprecise probabilities. London: Chapman & Hall. [25] Google Scholar
Wallsten, T. S. (1981). Physician and medical student bias in evaluating diagnostic information. Medical Decision Making, 1, 145–164. [39] Google Scholar
Wallsten, T. S., & Budescu, D. V. (1983). Encoding subjective probabilities: A psychological and psychometric review. Management Science, 29, 151–173. [27, 39] Google Scholar
Wallsten, T. S., Budescu, D. V., & Zwick, R. (1992). Comparing the calibration and coherence of numerical and verbal probability judgments. Management Science, 39, 176–190. [25, 27] Google Scholar
Wallsten, T. S., & Gonzales-Vallejo, C. (1994). Statement verification: A stochastic model of judgment and response. Psychological Review, 101, 490–504. [39] Google Scholar
Walster, E., Walster, G. W., Piliavin, E., & Schmidt, L. (1973). Playing hard to get: Understanding an elusive phenomenon. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 26, 113–121. [21] Google Scholar
Wansink, B., Kent, R. J., & Hoch, S. J. (1998). An anchoring and adjustment model of purchase quantity decisions. Journal of Marketing Research, 35, 71–81. [6] Google Scholar
Ward, R. (1994, February). Maternity ward. Mirabella, 89–90. [34] Google Scholar
Wason, P. C. (1960). On the failure to eliminate hypotheses in a conceptual task. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 12, 129–140. [2,6] Google Scholar
Wason, P. C. (1966). Reasoning. In New horizons in psychology (pp. 135–151), B. Foss (Ed.). Harmonsworth, U.K.: Penguin. [24] Google Scholar
Wason, P. C., & Johnson-Laird, P. N. (1972). The psychology of reasoning. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. [9] Google Scholar
Watley D. J., & Vance, F L. (1974). U.S. Office of Education Cooperative Research Project No. 2022. University of Minnesota, Minneapolis. [40] Google Scholar
Watson, S., & Buede, D. (1990). Decision synthesis. New York: Cambridge University Press. [41] Google Scholar
Wax, A. L. (1999). Discrimination as accident. Indiana Law Journal, 74, 1129–1236. [10] Google Scholar
Weber, M. (1978). Economy and society. G. Roth & K. Wittich (Eds.). Berkeley: University of California Press. [32] Google Scholar
Wechsler, H., Lee, J. E., Kuo, M. C. (2000). College binge drinking in the 1990s. Journal of the American College Health Association, 48, 199–210. [41] Google Scholar
Wedding, D. (1983). Comparison of statistical and actuarial models for predicting lateralization of brain damage. International Journal of Clinical Neuropsychology, 5, 15–20. [40] Google Scholar
Weeks, J. C, Cook, E. F, O'Day S. J., Peterson, L. M., Wenger, N., Reding, D., Harrell, F E., Kussin, P., Dawson, N. V., Connors, A. F, Jr., Lynn, J., & Phillips, R. S. (1998). Relationship between cancer patients' predictions of prognosis and their treatment preferences. Journal of the American Medical Association, 279, 1709–1714. [39] Google Scholar
Wegener, D. T., & Petty, R. E. (1994). Mood management across affective states: The hedonic contingency hypothesis. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 66, 1034–1048. [16, 29] Google Scholar
Wegener, D. T., Petty, R. E., & Smith, S. M. (1995a). Positive mood can increase or decrease message scrutiny: The hedonic contingency view of mood and message processing. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 69, 5–15. [29] Google Scholar
Wegener, D. T., & Petty, R. E. (1995b). Flexible correction processes in social judgment: The role of naïve theories in corrections for perceived bias. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 68, 36–51. [22, 32] Google Scholar
Wegener, D. T., & Petty, R. E. (1997). The flexible correction model: the role of naive theories of bias in bias correction. In Advances in experimental social psychology (Vol. 29, pp. 141–207), M. P. Zanna (Ed.). San Diego: Academic Press. [10] Google Scholar
Wegner, D. M., & Bargh, J. (1998). Automaticity and mental control. In The handbook of social psychology (4th ed. pp. 446–496), D. T. Gilbert, S. T. Fiske, & G. Lindzey (Eds.). New York: McGraw-Hill. [9] Google Scholar
Wegner, D. M., Coulton, G., & Wenzlaff, R. (1985). The transparency of denial: Briefing in the debriefing paradigm. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 49, 338–346. [9] Google Scholar
Wegner, D. M., Wenzlaff, R., Kerker, R. M., & Beattie, A. E. (1981). Incrimination through innuendo: Can media questions become public answers? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 40, 822–832. [9] Google Scholar
Weiner, B. (1985). “Spontaneous” causal thinking. Psychological Bulletin, 97, 74–84. [19, 20] Google Scholar
Weiner, B., Frieze, I., Kukla, A., Reed, L., Rest, S., & Rosenbaum, R. M. (1972). Perceiving the causes of success and failure. In Attribution: Perceiving the causes of behavior (pp. 95–120), E. E. Jones, D. E. Kanouse, H. H. Kelley, R. E. Nisbett, S. Valins, & B. Weiner (Eds.). Morristown, NJ: General Learning Press. [9, 28] Google Scholar
Weinstein, N. (1980). Unrealistic optimism about future life events. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 39, 806–820. [14, 17, 18, 19, 27, 38] Google Scholar
Weinstein, N. D. (1983). Reducing unrealistic optimism about illness susceptibility. Health Psychology, 2, 11–20. [17] Google Scholar
Weinstein, N. D. (1987). Unrealistic optimism about illness susceptibility: Conclusions from a community-wide sample. Journal of Behavioral Medicine, 10, 481–500. [17, 19] Google Scholar
Weinstein, N. D. (1993). Testing four competing theories of health protective behavior. Health Psychology, 12, 324–333. [17] Google Scholar
Weinstein, N. D. (1998a). Accuracy of smokers' risk perceptions. Annals of Behavioral Medicine, 20, 135–140. [19] Google Scholar
Weinstein, N. D. (1998b). References on optimistic biases about risk, unrealistic optimism, and perceived invulnerability. Unpublished manuscript, Rutgers University. [19] Google Scholar
Weinstein, N. D., & Klein, W. M. (1995). Resistance to personal risk perceptions to debiasing interventions. Health Psychology, 14, 132–140. [19] Google Scholar
Weinstein, N. D., & Lachendro, E. (1982). Egocentrism as a source of unrealistic optimism. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 8, 195–200. [27] Google Scholar
Weinstein, N. D., Sandman, P. M., & Roberts, N. E. (1991). Perceived susceptibility and self-protective behavior: A field experiment to encourage home radon testing. Health Psychology, 10, 25–33. [17] Google Scholar
Weldon, E., & Gargano, G. M. (1988). Cognitive loafing: The effects of accountability and shared responsibility on cognitive effort. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 14, 159–171. [32] Google Scholar
Wellman, H. M. (1990). The child's theory of mind. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. [8] Google Scholar
Wells, G. L. (1993). What do we know about eyewitness identification? American Psychologist, 48, 553–571. [10] Google Scholar
Wells, G. L., & Gavanski, I. (1989). Mental simulation of causality. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 56, 161–169. [35] Google Scholar
Wells, G. L., & Petty, R. E. (1980). The effects of overt head movements on persuasion: compatibility and incompatibility of responses. Basic and Applied Social Psychology, 1, 219–230. [7] Google Scholar
Werner, P. D., Rose, T. L., & Yesavage, J. A. (1983). Reliability, accuracy, and decision-making strategy in clinical predictions of imminent dangerousness. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 51, 815–825. [40] Google Scholar
Wetherick, N. E. (1971). Representativeness in a reasoning problem: A reply to Shapiro. Bulletin of the British Psychological Society, 24, 213–214. [24] Google Scholar
Wetherick, N. E. (1995). Reasoning and rationality: A critique of some experimental paradigms. Theory & Psychology, 5, 429–448. [24] Google Scholar
Whitcomb, K. M, Onkal, D., Curley, S. P., & Benson, P. G. (1995). Probability judgment accuracy for general knowledge: Cross-national differences and assessment methods. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 8, 51–67. [15] Google Scholar
Whitley, B. E., Jr., & Hern, A. L. (1991). Perceptions of vulnerability to pregnancy and the use of effective contraception. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 17, 104–110. [19] Google Scholar
Wickens, C. D. (1984). Engineering psychology and human performance. Columbus, OH: Merrill. [12] Google Scholar
Wicklund, R. A. (1974). Freedom and reactance. Potomac, MD: Erlbaum. [36] Google Scholar
Wiggins, J. S. (1981). Clinical and statistical prediction: Where are we and where do we go from here? Clinical Psychology Review, 1, 3–18. [40] Google Scholar
Wilks, S. S. (1938). Weighting systems for linear functions of correlated variables when there is no dependent variable. Psychometrika, 3, 23–40. [40] Google Scholar
Williams, P A., Moyes, G. D., & Park, K. (1996). Factors affecting earnings forecast revisions for the buy-side and sell-side analyst. Accounting Horizons, 10, 112–121. [38] Google Scholar
Wills, T. A. (1981). Downward comparison principles in social psychology. Psychological Bulletin, 90, 245–271. [17] Google Scholar
Wills, T. A. (1987). Downward comparison as a coping mechanism. In Coping with negative life events: Clinical and social-psychological perspectives (pp. 243–268), C. R. Snyder & C. Ford (Eds.). New York: Plenum Press. [17] Google Scholar
Wilson, J. Q. (1989). Bureaucracy: What government agencies do and why they do it. New York: Basic Books. [32] Google Scholar
Wilson, R. (1979). Analyzing the risks of everyday life. Technology Review, 81(4), 40–46. [41] Google Scholar
Wilson, T. D. (1985). Strangers to ourselves: The origins and accuracy of beliefs about one's own mental states. In Attribution: Basic issues and applications (pp. 9–36), J. H. Harvey & G. Weary (Eds.). Orlando, FL: Academic Press. [16] Google Scholar
Wilson, T. D. (2001). Strangers to ourselves: self-insight and the adaptive unconscious. Manuscript in preparation. [10] Google Scholar
Wilson, T. D., & Brekke, N. (1994). Mental contamination and mental correction: unwanted influences on judgments and evaluations. Psychological Bulletin, 116, 117–142. [6,10] Google Scholar
Wilson, T. D., Dunn, D. S., Kraft, D., & Lisle, D. J. (1989). Introspection, attitude change, and attitude-behavior consistency: The disruptive effects of explaining why we feel the way we do. In Advances in experimental social psychology (Vol. 22, pp. 287–343), L. Berkowitz (Ed.). Orlando, FL: Academic Press. [30] Google Scholar
Wilson, T. D., Gilbert, D. T., & Wheatley T. (1998). Protecting our minds: the role of lay beliefs. In Metacognition: cognitive and social dimensions (pp. 171–201), V. Yzerbyt, G. Lories, & B. Dardenne (Eds.). New York: Sage. [10] Google Scholar
Wilson, T. D., Hodges, S. D., & LaFleur, S. J. (1995). Effects of introspecting about reasons: Inferring attitudes from accessible thoughts. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 69, 16–28. [36] Google Scholar
Wilson, T. D., Houston, C, Etling, K. M., & Brekke, N. (1996). A new look at anchoring effects: Basic anchoring and it antecedents. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 4, 387–402. [Introduction, 6, 8] Google Scholar
Wilson, T. D., Lisle, D., Schooler, J., Hodges, S. D., Klaaren, K. J., & LaFleur, S. J. (1993). Introspecting about reasons can reduce post-choice satisfaction. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 10, 331–339. [30] Google Scholar
Wilson, T. D., & Schooler, J. W. (1991). Thinking too much: introspection can reduce the quality of preferences and decisions. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 60 (2), 181–192. [30] Google Scholar
Wilson, T. D., Wheatley, T., Meyers, Gilbert, D. T., & Axsom, D. (2000). Focalism: A source of durability bias in affective forecasting. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 78, 821–836. [14,16] Google Scholar
Windschitl, P. D., & Weber, E. U. (1999). The interpretation of “likely” depends on the context, but “70%” is 70% - right?: The influence of associative processes on perceived certainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 25, 1514–1533. [22] Google Scholar
Winkielman, P., Zajonc, R. B., & Schwarz, N. (1997). Subliminal affective priming resists attributional interventions. Cognition and Emotion, 11(4), 433–465. [23] Google Scholar
Winkler, R. L., & Poses, R. M. (1993). Evaluating and combining physicians' probabilities of survival in an intensive care unit. Management Science, 39, 1526–43. [39] Google Scholar
Wittman, M. P. (1941). Mental efficiency levels before and after shock therapy. Elgin Papers, 4, 70–81. [40] Google Scholar
Wolford, G., Taylor, H. A., & Beck, J. R. (1990). The conjunction fallacy? Memory and Cognition, 18, 47–53. [3] Google Scholar
Wong, P. T. P., & Weiner, B. (1981). When people ask “why” questions, and the heuristics of the attributional search. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 40, 650–663. [19] Google Scholar
Wood, J. V. (1989). Theory and research concerning social comparisons of personal attributes. Psychological Bulletin, 106, 231–248. [9,17] Google Scholar
Wood, J. V., Taylor, S. E., & Lichtman, R. R. (1985). Social comparison in adjustment to breast cancer. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 49, 1169–1183. [19] Google Scholar
Word, C. O., Zanna, M. P., & Cooper, J. (1974). The nonverbal mediation of self-fulfilling prophecies in interracial interaction. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 10, 109–120. [Introduction] Google Scholar
Wortman, C. B., & Silver, R. C. (1987). Coping with irrevocable loss. In Cataclysms, crises, and catastrophes: Psychology in action (pp. 185–235), G. R. Vanden Bos & B. K. Bryant (Eds.). Washington, DC: American Psychological Association. [16] Google Scholar
Wortman, C. B., & Silver, R. C. (1989). The myths of coping with loss. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 57, 349–357 [16] Google Scholar
Wright, G., Lawrence, M. J., & Collopy F. (1996). The role and validity of judgment in forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting, 12, 1–8. [41] Google Scholar
Wright, G., & Wisudha, A. (1982). Distribution of probability assessments for almanac and future event questions. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology, 23, 219–224. [13,15] Google Scholar
Wright, G. N., & Phillips, L. D. (1980). Cultural variation in probabilistic thinking: Alternative ways of dealing with uncertainty. International Journal of Psychology, 15, 239–257. [15] Google Scholar
Wright, G. N., Phillips, L. D., Whalley P. C, Choo, G. T., Ng, K. O., Tan, I., & Wisudha, A. (1978). Cultural differences in probabilistic thinking. Journal of Cross-Cultural Psychology, 9, 285–299. [15] Google Scholar
Wright, P. (1975). Consumer choice strategies: Simplifying versus optimizing. Journal of Marketing Research, 12, 60–67. [23,30] Google Scholar
Wright, W. F., & Anderson, U. (1989). Effects of situation familiarity and financial incentives on use of the anchoring and adjustment heuristic for probability assessment. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 44, 68–82. [6,7] Google Scholar
Wu, G., & Gonzalez, R. (1999). Nonlinear decision weights in choice under uncertainty. Management Science, 45, 74–85. [27] Google Scholar
Wurtele, S. K. (1988). Increasing women's calcium intake: The role of health beliefs, intentions, and health value. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 18, 627–639. [17] Google Scholar
Wurtele, S. K., & Maddux, J. E. (1987). Relative contributions of protection motivation theory components in predicting exercise intentions and behavior. Health Psychology, 6, 453–466. [17] Google Scholar
Wyer, R. S., & Carlston, D. (1979). Social cognition, inference, and attribution. Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. [29] Google Scholar
Wyer, R. S., Jr. (1976). An investigation of the relations among probability estimates. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 15, 1–18. [1] Google Scholar
Wyer, R. S., & Gordon, S. E. (1984). The cognitive representation of social information. In Handbook of social cognition (Vol. 2, pp. 73–150), R. S. Wyer & T. K. Srull (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. [20] Google Scholar
Wyer, R. S., & Srull, T. K. (1981). Category accessibility: Some theoretical and empirical issues concerning the processing of social stimulus information. In Social cognition: The Ontario symposium (Vol. 1, pp. 161–197), E. T. Higgins, C. R. Herman, & M. P. Zanna (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. [20] Google Scholar
Wyer, R. S., & Srull, T. K. (1989). Memory and cognition in its social context. Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [5] Google Scholar
Wänke, M., Schwarz, N., & Bless, H. (1995). The availability heuristic revisited: experienced ease of retrieval in mundane frequency estimates. Acta Psychologica, 89, 83–90. [5] Google Scholar
Yadav, M. S. (1994). How buyers evaluate product bundles: a model of anchoring and adjustment. Journal of Consumer Research, 21, 342–353. [6] Google Scholar
Yamagishi, K. (1994). Consistencies and biases in risk perception. I. Anchoring processes and response-range effects. Perceptual and Motor Skills, 79 (1, Pt. 2), 651–656. [6] Google Scholar
Yamagishi, K. (1997). When a 12.86% mortality is more dangerous than 24.14%: Implications for risk communication. Applied Cognitive Psychology, 11, 495–506. [23] Google Scholar
Yaniv, L., & Foster, D. (1990). Graininess of judgment: an accuracy-informativeness tradeoff. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 21, 1509–1521. [3] Google Scholar
Yates, J. F. (1982). External correspondence: Decompositions of the mean probability score. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 30, 132–156. [15] Google Scholar
Yates, J. F. (1990). Judgment and decision making. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall. [13,14,15] Google Scholar
Yates, J. F. (Ed.). (1992). Risk-taking behavior. Chichester, U.K.: Wiley. [39] Google Scholar
Yates, J. F. (1994). Subjective probability accuracy analysis. In Subjective probability (pp. 381–410), G. Wright & P. Ayton (Eds.), Chichester, U.K.: Wiley. [15,39] Google Scholar
Yates, J. F. (1998). Conceptualizing, explaining, and improving accuracy: Process models of probability judgment. Cognitive Studies, 5 (4), 49–64. [15] Google Scholar
Yates, J. F., Lee, J.-W., & Bush, J. G. (1997). General knowledge overconfidence: Cross-national variations, response style, and “reality.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 70, 87–94. [15] Google Scholar
Yates, J. F, Lee, J.-W., Levi, K. R., & Curley S. P. (1990). Measuring and analyzing probability judgment accuracy in medicine. Philippine Journal of Internal Medicine, 28 (Suppl. 1), 21–32. [15] Google Scholar
Yates, J. F., Lee, J.-W., & Shinotsuka, H. (1996). Beliefs about overconfidence, including its cross-national variation. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 65, 138–147. [15] Google Scholar
Yates, J. F, Lee, J.-W., Shinotsuka, H., Patalano, A. L., & Sieck, W. R. (1998). Cross-cultural variations in probability judgment accuracy: Beyond general knowledge overconfidence. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 74, 89–117. [15] Google Scholar
Yates, J. F., Lee, J.-W., Shinotsuka, H., & Sieck, W. R. (2000). The argument recruitment model: Explaining general knowledge overconfidence and its cross-cultural variations. Working paper, Department of Psychology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor. [15] Google Scholar
Yates, J. F., McDaniel, L. S., & Brown, E. S. (1991). Probabalistic forecasts of stock prices and earnings: The hazards of nascent expertise. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 49, 60–79 [39] Google Scholar
Yates, J. F., Price, P. C, Lee, J.-W., & Ramirez, J. (1996). Good probabilistic forecasters: The “consumer's” perspective. International Journal of Forecasting, 12, 41–56. [15] Google Scholar
Yates, J. F., Zhu, Y, Ronis, D. L., Wang, D.-F., Shinotsuka, H., & Toda, M. (1989). Probability judgment accuracy: China, Japan, and the United States. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 43, 145–171. [15] Google Scholar
Yates, J. F., & Curley S. P. (1985). Conditional distribution analyses of probabilistic forecasts. Journal of Forecasting, 4, 61–73. [39] Google Scholar
Yates, J. F., & Lee, J.-W. (1996). Chinese decision making. In The handbook of Chinese psychology (pp. 338–351), M. H. Bond (Ed.), Hong Kong: Oxford University Press. [15] Google Scholar
Yates, J. F., & Patalano, A. L. (1999). Decision making and aging. In Processing of medical information in aging patients: Cognitive and human factors perspectives (pp. 31–54), D. C. Park, R. W. Morrell, & K. Shifren (Eds.), Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [15] Google Scholar
Yik, M. S. M., Bond, M. H., & Paulhus, D. L. (1998). Do Chinese self-enhance or self-efface? It's a matter of domain. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 24, 399–406. [15] Google Scholar
Youden, W J. (1972). Enduring Values. Technometrics, 14, 1–11. [37] Google Scholar
Zadeh, L. A. (1978). Fuzzy sets as a basis for a theory of possibility. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 1, 3–28. [1, 25] Google Scholar
Zadeh, L. A. (1982). A note on prototype theory and fuzzy sets. Cognition, 12, 291- 297. [1] Google Scholar
Zajonc, R. B. (1968). Attitudinal effects of mere exposure. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology Monograph, 9 (2, Pt. 2), 1–27. [23,30] Google Scholar
Zajonc, R. B. (1980). Feeling and thinking: Preferences need no inferences. American Psychologist, 35, 151–175. [Introduction, 2, 23, 29] Google Scholar
Zajonc, R. B. (1997). Emotions. In Handbook of social psychology, 4th Ed. (pp. 591–632) D. T. Gilbert, S. T. Fiske, & G. Lindzey (Eds.). New York: Oxford University Press. [2,30] Google Scholar
Zajonc, R. B., & Markus, H. (1982). Affective and cognitive factors in preferences. Journal of Consumer Research, 9, 123–131. [23] Google Scholar
Zarnowitz, V. (1985). Rational expectations and macroeconomic forecasts. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 3, 293–311. [25] Google Scholar
Zax, M., & Takahashi, S. (1967). Cultural influences on response style: Comparisons of Japanese and American college students. Journal of Social Psychology, 71, 3–10. [15] Google Scholar
Zentner, R. D. (1982). Scenarios, past, present and future. Long Range Planning, 15, 12–20. [1] Google Scholar
Zhang, B. (1992). Cultural conditionality in decision making: A prospect of probabilistic thinking. Unpublished Doctoral dissertation, Department of Information Systems, London School of Economics and Political Science, University of London, London. [15] Google Scholar
Zillman, D. (1978). Attribution and misattribution of excitatory reactions. In New directions in attribution research (Vol. 2, pp. 335–368), J. H. Harvey, W. I. Ickes, & R. F. Kidd (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. [5, 29] Google Scholar
Zimbardo, P. G., & Lieppe, M. R. (1991). The psychology of attitude change and social influence. New York: McGraw-Hill. [9] Google Scholar
Zuckerman, M., DePaulo, B. M., & Rosenthal, R. (1981). Verbal and nonverbal communication of deception. In Advances in experimental social psychology (Vol. 14, pp. 1–59), L. Berkowitz (Ed.). New York: Academic Press. [9] Google Scholar
Zukier, H. (1986). The paradigmatic and narrative modes in goal-guided inference. In Handbook of motivation and cognition: Foundations of social behavior (Vol. 1, pp. 465–502), R. M. Sorrentino & E. T. Higgins (Eds.). New York: Guilford. [14] Google Scholar
Zusne, L., & Jones, W. H. (1982). Anomalistic psychology. Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [34] Google Scholar
Statistical abstract of the United States (1990). Washington, DC: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. [25] Google Scholar

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure coreplatform@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

  • References
  • Edited by Thomas Gilovich, Cornell University, New York, Dale Griffin, Stanford University, California, Daniel Kahneman, Princeton University, New Jersey
  • Book: Heuristics and Biases
  • Online publication: 05 June 2012
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511808098.045
Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

  • References
  • Edited by Thomas Gilovich, Cornell University, New York, Dale Griffin, Stanford University, California, Daniel Kahneman, Princeton University, New Jersey
  • Book: Heuristics and Biases
  • Online publication: 05 June 2012
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511808098.045
Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

  • References
  • Edited by Thomas Gilovich, Cornell University, New York, Dale Griffin, Stanford University, California, Daniel Kahneman, Princeton University, New Jersey
  • Book: Heuristics and Biases
  • Online publication: 05 June 2012
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511808098.045
Available formats
×