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3 - The role of radar in predicting and preventing asteroid and comet collisions with Earth

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  12 October 2009

Steven J. Ostro
Affiliation:
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology
Jon D. Giorgini
Affiliation:
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology
Michael J. S. Belton
Affiliation:
Belton Space Exploration Initiatives
Thomas H. Morgan
Affiliation:
National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington DC
Nalin H. Samarasinha
Affiliation:
National Optical Astronomy Observatory
Donald K. Yeomans
Affiliation:
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology
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Summary

Introduction

The current Spaceguard Survey classifies each known near-Earth asteroid (NEA) as either non-threatening or deserving of additional astrometric attention. For any possibly threatening object, the dominant issues are the uncertainty in its trajectory and physical nature as well as what can be done to reduce that uncertainty. Morrison et al. (2002) note that

From the standpoint of an allocator of society's resources, an uncertain threat calls for adaptive policies, delaying potentially costly action but informing later decision by investing in uncertainty-reduction measures. In the context of the NEO impact hazard, this means avoiding the costs of standing organizational structures and capital expenditures until a threat materializes. …

Thus reduction in uncertainty is tantamount to ensuring that unnecessary costs are avoided and that necessary actions are undertaken with adequate warning.

Ground-based radar is a knowledge-gathering tool that is uniquely able to shrink uncertainty in NEO trajectories and physical properties. The power of radar stems largely from the precision of its measurements (Table 3.1). The resolution of echoes in time delay (range) and Doppler frequency (radial velocity) is often of order 1/100 the extent of a kilometer-sized target, so several thousand radar image pixels can be placed on the target. Delay-Doppler positional measurements often have a fractional precision finer than 1/10 000 000, comparable to sub-milliarcsecond optical astrometry.

The single-date signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of echoes, a measure of the number of useful imaging pixels placed on a target by a given radar data set, depends primarily on the object's distance and size.

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Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2004

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