The problem and our approach to it

In an earlier paper (Almon and Grassini, 1999) we compared the shifts in the industrial structure of employment in seven countries – Italy, France, Spain, Germany, the United States, Japan and China – over the years 1980 to 1995. Among these countries, Italy was outstanding for its slow rate of decline in the share of non-agricultural employment in Textiles and clothing, in Leather and footwear, in Agricultural and industrial machinery, and in Non-metallic mineral products (stone, clay and glass products). By contrast, in comparison to the other countries, the shar of non-agricultural employment declined particularly rapidly – one of the two fastest or a close third – in Chemical products, Metal products, Electrical goods, Office and computing machinery, Motor vehicles, Food and tobacco, Wood and furniture, Paper and printing products, Plastic products and rubber, and Recovery and repair services. The list of sectors where Italy is distinguished by hanging on to employment share are those generally connected with low wages, while those where Italy is leading the decline include most of the high-wage, high-tech sectors. This pattern may be called “low-tech drift.”

The standard forecasts for Italy made with INTIMO – the Interindustry Italian Model, a multisectoral macroeconomic (MM) model – show accelerating rates of decline in Electricity, Non-metallic mineral products, Chemicals, Metal products, Office and computing machinery, Electrical goods, Motor vehicles, Other transportation equipment, Textiles, Leather, Paper, and Plastic products.