In the epilogue to the first Blair Effect, I described the Blair government of 1997–2001 as a ‘foundation’ and as ‘a surprisingly restrained’ government, and observed that ‘no Labour government in history had come to power with so many initial advantages, not even the Attlee government in 1945’. Yet in many spheres the first Blair government's achievements, and especially those which bore the Prime Minister's personal imprint, were modest. The major successes – over the economy, welfare reform and the constitution – were primarily due to others. The epilogue concluded by saying that Number 10, as the first term was ending, had come to recognise that it would not see the groundbreaking changes and reforms Blair had foreshadowed. Instead, a new narrative emerged: the first term should be seen merely as an introduction or a prelude, in which the ‘foundations’ for real change were laid. The radicalism would come in the second term.

The chapter was sceptical, however, as to whether Blair would be able to achieve the great things that he promised for his second term. It observed that, where British governments in history had been radical, the progress had come early on in the life of a prime minister rather than in the middle, and still less in the twilight years. William Gladstone, Benjamin Disraeli, Stanley Baldwin, Clement Attlee, Harold Macmillan, Edward Heath and Harold Wilson thus were prime ministers who saw their best work achieved in their early years in Downing Street.