ONLY TIME WOULD tell whether the killing of the Old Marshal would result in chaos or orderly transition. Fortunately, the latter prevailed; and it was possible for Western sympathizers of China like Dr Dugald Christie to take an optimistic view of the future:

The more wary, however, looked to the future of China the Nation with apprehension:

The underlying popular nationalism which this bred led to the minor Sino-Russian War of 1929 and the descent of Sino-Japanese relations to bitter hostility. These two themes form the substance of this chapter.

It was some months before the circumstances of Chang Tso-lin’s death leaked out publicly. Speculation abounded about who had per petrated the crime and how and why. The purpose of the plot was specifically to get rid of Chang Tso-lin whom some Japanese saw as an obstacle to achieving their ambitions. A secondary aim was more generally to destabilize the administration in Manchuria. But as a result of Chang Hsueh-liang’s delaying tactics the predicted chaos did not materialize. Law and order were upheld and a peaceful transition to power of Hsueh-liang took place.

The bomb plot was a failure for Japan and a snub for Prime Minister Tanaka. It was locally and conspiratorially arranged and not authorized by Tokyo, either military or civilian. It was evidently not approved by the Kwantung army as a whole. It failed also as a political tactic to settle Sino-Japanese differences in a direction favourable to Japan. Amidst all the uncertainty, it was even suggested that the real perpetrators were associated with the Kuomintang and its Northern Expedition, of which Chang Tso-lin had been a long-standing opponent.