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4 - Voting against Violence? Economic Uncertainty and Physical Insecurity in 2015

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  11 January 2019

A. Carl LeVan
Affiliation:
American University, Washington DC
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Summary

In this chapter I statistically demonstrate that voters engaged in economic voting, responding to campaign appeals from the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC). Perceptions of national economic performance, average levels of citizens’ wealth, and expectations for whether Muhammadu Buhari or President Goodluck Jonathan was more likely to improve the economy all systematically correlate with electoral outcomes across states. Further, states with healthy economies were risk averse and overwhelmingly voted to keep the PDP. Proximity to violence in the years prior to the election had no systematic effect. This is surprising given the scale and scope of Boko Haram’s terrorism as well as numerous polls in which citizens ranked insecurity as the nation’s top priority. I also show that fear of an increase in insurgent violence under Buhari mobilized PDP voters, while counter-terrorism was less important for APC voters. This suggests that the APC built an electoral coalition on the promises of Buhari’s ability to improve the economy and run a clean election, while the PDP played to its base, missing important voter cues. The results contribute to a growing body of research that questions portraits of African elections as centered on ethnicity and devoid of issue-based campaigning.
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Chapter
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Contemporary Nigerian Politics
Competition in a Time of Transition and Terror
, pp. 104 - 147
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2019

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