Hostname: page-component-76fb5796d-5g6vh Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-27T01:34:43.973Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

In the Shadow of Conflict: How Emotions, Threat Perceptions and Victimization Influence Foreign Policy Attitudes

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 July 2019

A. Kupatadze  and
T. Zeitzoff Open the ORCID record for T. Zeitzoff [Opens in a new window]
A. Kupatadze
Affiliation:
King’s Russia Institute & Department of European and International Studies, King’s College London (Email: alexander.kupatadze@kcl.ac.uk)
T. Zeitzoff*
Affiliation:
School of Public Affairs, American University (Email: zeitzoff@american.edu)
*
*Corresponding author. E-mail: zeitzoff@american.edu
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

We investigate how emotions, threat perceptions and past violence influence foreign policy attitudes via a survey experiment in Georgia. Using a stratified sample across areas with differential exposure to the conflict and the presence of internally displaced persons, we randomly assign respondents to receive emotional primes about Russian aggression in the region. We find that exposure to violence, as well as simply being primed about past Russian aggression, both increase the perceived threat from Russia, and to a lesser extent anger towards Russia. Individuals who receive the primes are more supportive of a hardline foreign policy. In contrast, we find that exposure to violence does not have a direct effect on foreign policy attitudes, but increases hardline attitudes indirectly, through increased anger and threat. Taken together our results provide evidence that reminders of past violence have different effects than direct exposure to violence on foreign policy attitudes.

Keywords

foreign policy attitudesthreat perceptionemotionseffect of violence
Type
Article
Information
British Journal of Political Science , Volume 51 , Issue 1 , January 2021 , pp. 181 - 202
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2019

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Acharya, A, Blackwell, M and Sen, M (2016) The political legacy of American slavery. Journal of Politics 78 (3):621–641.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Albertson, B and Gadarian, SK (2015) Anxious Politics: Democratic Citizenship in a Threatening World. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Albertson, B and Gadarian, SK (2016) Did that scare you? Tips on creating emotion in experimental subjects. Political Analysis 24 (4):485–491.10.1093/pan/mpw022CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bar‐Tal, D (2000) From intractable conflict through conflict resolution to reconciliation: psychological analysis. Political Psychology 21 (2):351–365.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bar‐Tal, D, Halperin, E and De Rivera, J (2007) Collective emotions in conflict situations: societal implications. Journal of Social Issues 63 (2):441–460.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bateson, R (2012) Crime victimization and political participation. American Political Science Review 106 (3):570–587.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bauer, M, Blattman, C, Chytilová, J, Henrich, J, Miguel, E and Mitts, T (2016) Can war foster cooperation? Journal of Economic Perspectives 30 (3):249–274.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berinsky, AJ (2007) Assuming the costs of war: events, elites, and American public support for military conflict. Journal of Politics 69 (4):975–997.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blattman, C (2009) From violence to voting: war and political participation in Uganda. American Political Science Review 103 (2):231–247.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blattman, C and Miguel, E (2010) Civil war. Journal of Economic Literature 48 (1):3–57.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, B, Morrow, JD, Siverson, RM and Smith, A (1999) An institutional explanation of the democratic peace. American Political Science Review 93 (4):791–807.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Callen, M, Isaqzadeh, M, Long, JD and Sprenger, C (2014) Violence and risk preference: experimental evidence from Afghanistan. American Economic Review 104 (1):123–148.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cameron, DR and Orenstein, MA (2012) Post-soviet authoritarianism: the influence of Russia in its ‘near abroad’. Post-Soviet Affairs 28 (1):1–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Canetti-Nisim, D, Halperin, E, Sharvit, K and Hobfoll, SE (2009) A new stress-based model of political extremism: personal exposure to terrorism, psychological distress, and exclusionist political attitudes. Journal of Conflict Resolution 53 (3):363–389.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Cederman, LE, Wimmer, A and Min, B (2010) Why do ethnic groups rebel? New data and analysis. World Politics 62 (1):87–119.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cornell, SE (2002) Autonomy and conflict: ethnoterritoriality and separatism in the South Caucasus-cases in Georgia. Doctoral dissertation, Institutionen för freds-och konfliktforskning, Uppsala.Google Scholar
de Figueiredo, R Jr and Weingast, BR (1999) The rationality of fear: political opportunism and ethnic conflict. In Walter B and Snyder J (eds), Civil Wars, Insecurity, and Intervention. New York: Columbia Universioty press, pp. 281–302.Google Scholar
Derluguian, GM (1998) The tale of two resorts: Abkhazia and Ajaria before and since the Soviet collapse. Research Series-Institute of International Studies University of California Berkeley, 261–292.Google Scholar
Driscoll, J (2015) Warlords and Coalition Politics in Post-Soviet States. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, JD (1995) Rationalist explanations for war. International Organization 49 (3):379–414.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, JD and Laitin, DD (2003) Ethnicity, insurgency, and civil war. American Political Science Review 97 (1):75–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Frijda, NH (1988) The laws of emotion. American Psychologist 43 (5):349.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Gadarian, SK (2010) The politics of threat: how terrorism news shapes foreign policy attitudes. Journal of Politics 72 (2):469–483.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gagnon, VP (1994) Ethnic nationalism and international conflict: the case of Serbia. International Security 19 (3):130–166.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
George, J (2009) The Politics of Ethnic Separatism in Russia and Georgia. New York: Springer.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Getmansky, A and Zeitzoff, T (2014) Terrorism and voting: the effect of rocket threat on voting in Israeli elections. American Political Science Review 108 (3):588–604.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gilligan, MJ, Pasquale, BJ and Samii, C (2014) Civil war and social cohesion: lab‐in‐the‐field evidence from Nepal. American Journal of Political Science 58 (3):604–619.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goertz, G and Diehl, PF (1993) Enduring rivalries: theoretical constructs and empirical patterns. International Studies Quarterly 37 (2):147–171.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Grossman, G, Manekin, D and Miodownik, D (2015) The political legacies of combat: attitudes toward war and peace among Israeli ex-combatants. International Organization 69 (4):981–1009.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gvalia, G, Siroky, D, Lebanidze, B and Iashvili, Z (2013) Thinking outside the bloc: explaining the foreign policies of small states. Security Studies 22 (1):98–131.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Han, S, Lerner, JS and Keltner, D (2007) Feelings and consumer decision making: the appraisal-tendency framework. Journal of Consumer Psychology 17 (3):158–168.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hersh, ED (2013) Long-term effect of September 11 on the political behavior of victims’ families and neighbors. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 110 (52):20959–20963.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Hirsch-Hoefler, S, Canetti, D, Rapaport, C and Hobfoll, SE (2016) Conflict will harden your heart: exposure to violence, psychological distress, and peace barriers in Israel and Palestine. British Journal of Political Science 46 (4):845–859.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Holsti, OR (2004) Public Opinion and American Foreign Policy. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Horowitz, DL (2001) The Deadly Ethnic Riot. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press.10.1525/9780520342057CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huddy, L, Feldman, S, Taber, C and Lahav, G (2005) Threat, anxiety, and support of antiterrorism policies. American Journal of Political Science 49 (3):593–608.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Humphreys, M and Weinstein, JM (2008) Who fights? The determinants of participation in civil war. American Journal of Political Science 52 (2):436–455.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Imai, K, Keele, L and Tingley, D (2010) A general approach to causal mediation analysis. Psychological Methods 15 (4):309.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Jones, SF (2006) The Rose revolution: A revolution without revolutionaries? Cambridge Review of International Affairs 19 (1):33–48.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kertzer, JD (2017) Microfoundations in international relations. Conflict Management and Peace Science 34 (1):81–97.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kertzer, JD, Powers, KE, Rathbun, BC and Iyer, R (2014) Moral support: how moral values shape foreign policy attitudes. Journal of Politics 76 (3):825–840.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kupatadze, A and Zeitzoff, T (2018) Replication Data for: In the shadow of conflict: how emotions, threat perceptions, and victimization influence foreign policy attitudes, https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/QS0CDY, Harvard Dataverse, V1, UNF:6: VkMj3DHhbxeCwTmS/FJ8jQ== [fileUNF]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lake, DA and Rothchild, D (1996) Containing fear: the origins and management of ethnic conflict. International Security 21 (2):41–75.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lerner, JS, Gonzalez, RM, Small, DA and Fischhoff, B (2003) Effects of fear and anger on perceived risks of terrorism: a national field experiment. Psychological Science 14 (2):144–150.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Lerner, JS and Keltner, D (2001) Fear, anger, and risk. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 81 (1):146.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
McDermott, R (2004) The feeling of rationality: The meaning of neuroscientific advances for political science. Perspectives on Politics 2 (4):691–706.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McDermott, R (2010) Emotional manipulation of political identity. In Le Cheminant W and Parrish JM (eds), Manipulating Democracy: Democratic Theory, Political Psychology, and Mass Media. London: Routledge, pp. 131–152.Google Scholar
Merolla, JL and Zechmeister, EJ (2009 ) Democracy at Risk: How Terrorist Threats Affect the Public . Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Miguel, E, Camerer, C, Casey, K, Cohen, J, Esterling, KM, Gerber, A, Glennerster, R, Green, DP, Humphreys, M, Imbens, G, Laitin, D, Madon, T, Nelson, L, Nosek, BA, Petersen, M, Sedlmayr, R, Simmons, JP, Simonsohn, U and Van der Laan, M (2014) Promoting transparency in social science research. Science 343 (6166):30–31.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Minesashvili, S (2016) Narrating identity: belongingness and alterity in Georgia’s foreign policy. In Kakachia K and Markarov A (eds), Values and Identity as Sources of Foreign Policy in Armenia and Georgia. Tbilisi: Universal, pp. 34–61.Google Scholar
Myers, CD and Tingley, D (2016) The influence of emotion on trust. Political Analysis 24 (4):492–500.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Naskidashvili, M (2016) National identity of Georgian political elites and population and its impact on foreign policy choices. In Kakachia K and Markarov A (eds), Values and Identity as Sources of Foreign Policy in Armenia and Georgia. Tbilisi: Universal, pp. 34–61.Google Scholar
Nisbett, RE and Cohen, D (1996) Culture of Honor: The Psychology of Violence in the South . Boulder, CO: Westview Press Inc.Google Scholar
O’Loughlin, J, Kolossov, V and Toal, G (2014) Inside the post-Soviet de facto states: a comparison of attitudes in Abkhazia, Nagorny Karabakh, South Ossetia, and Transnistria. Eurasian Geography and Economics 55 (5):423–456.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Petersen, RD (2002) Understanding Ethnic Violence: Fear, Hatred, and Resentment in Twentieth-Century Eastern Europe. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Posen, BR (1993) The security dilemma and ethnic conflict. Survival 35 (1):27–47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Powell, R (1999) In the Shadow of Power: States and Strategies in International Politics. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rathbun, BC, Kertzer, JD, Reifler, J, Goren, P and Scotto, TJ (2016) Taking foreign policy personally: personal values and foreign policy attitudes. International Studies Quarterly 60 (1):124–137.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Riek, BM, Mania, EW and Gaertner, SL (2006) Intergroup threat and outgroup attitudes: a meta-analytic review. Personality and Social Psychology Review 10 (4):336–353.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Schultz, KA (1999) Do democratic institutions constrain or inform? Contrasting two institutional perspectives on democracy and war. International Organization 53 (2):233–266.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Searles, K and Mattes, K (2015) It’s a mad, mad world: using emotion inductions in a survey. Journal of Experimental Political Science 2 (2):172–182.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Steel, Z, Chey, T, Silove, D, Marnane, C, Bryant, RA and van Ommeren, M (2009) Association of torture and other potentially traumatic events with mental health outcomes among populations exposed to mass conflict and displacement: a systematic review and meta-analysis. JAMA 302 (5):537–549.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Tilly, C (2003) The Politics of Collective Violence. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Toal, G and Grono, MF (2011) After ethnic violence in the Caucasus: attitudes of local Abkhazians and displaced Georgians in 2010. Eurasian Geography and Economics 52 (5):655–678.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Voigtländer, N and Voth, HJ (2012) Persecution perpetuated: the medieval origins of anti-semitic violence in Nazi Germany. Quarterly Journal of Economics 127 (3):1339–1392.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Voors, MJ, Nillesen, EEM, Verwimp, P, Bulte, EH, Lensink, R and Van Soest, DP (2012) Violent conflict and behavior: a field experiment in Burundi. American Economic Review 102 (2):941–964.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Whitt, S and Wilson, RK (2007) The dictator game, fairness and ethnicity in postwar Bosnia. American Journal of Political Science 51 (3):655–668.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wilkinson, SI (2006) Votes and Violence: Electoral Competition and Ethnic Riots in India. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Young, LE (2016) The Psychology of Political Risk: Repression, Fear and Mobilization. Working paper, Columbia University, New York.Google Scholar
Zeitzoff, T (2014) Anger, exposure to violence, and intragroup conflict: a ‘lab in the field’ experiment in Southern Israel. Political Psychology 35 (3):309–335.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zeitzoff, T (2018) Anger, legacies of violence, and group conflict: an experiment in post-riot Acre, Israel. Conflict Management and Peace Science 35 (4):402–423.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zhao, X, Lynch, JG Jr and Chen, Q (2010) Reconsidering Baron and Kenny: myths and truths about mediation analysis. Journal of Consumer Research 37 (2):197–206.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: Link

Kupatadze and Zeitzoff Dataset

Dataset

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/QS0CDY
Link
Supplementary material: PDF

Kupatadze and Zeitzoff supplementary material

Kupatadze and Zeitzoff supplementary material
Download Kupatadze and Zeitzoff supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 1.6 MB