Skip to main content Accessibility help

HPAI impacts on Chinese chicken meat supply and demand

  • Z. HUANG (a1), A. LOCH (a2), C. FINDLAY (a3) and J. WANG (a1)


Chicken meat is an economically important part of Chinese food security, but has suffered relatively consistent highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks since 2004. This review evaluates the extent of quantity losses caused by HPAI events on Chinese chicken meat supply and demand (domestic production, consumption, imports and exports) between 2004 and 2013, using a partial equilibrium model. The largest losses were experienced in 2004 and 2005 (4,496,700 tons) which accounted for 38.84% and 33.76% of total respectively. Across the full review period the largest impacts were on per capita consumption (2.7 million tons) followed by production (2.5 million tons), imports (0.73 million tons) and exports (0.21 million tons). Research suggests that higher imports of chicken meat during HPAI events, branding strategies and investment in food safety management through the sector may help to avoid or minimise future HPAI losses in China.


Corresponding author

Corresponding author:


Hide All
BROWN, S., MADISON, D., GOODWIN, H. and CLARK, F. (2007) The potential effects on United States agriculture of an avian influenza outbreak. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 39: 335-343.
BUETRE, B., WICKS, S. and KRUGER, H. (2013) Potential socio-economic impacts of an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in Australia, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences Research report, No. 11.
DJUNAIDI, H. and DJUNAIDI, A. (2007) The economic impact of avian influenza on world poultry trade and the U.S. poultry industry: a spatial equilibrium analysis. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 39: 313-323.
DUESENBERRY, J. (1949) Income, saving and the theory of consumer behavior (Cambridge, Harvard University Press).
FEENSTRA, R.C. (2015) Advanced international trade: theory and evidence, (Princeton, Princeton University Press).
FAOSTAT (2014) Livestock primary database. Available at (Accessed 2nd March 2016).
FULLER, F., BEGHIN, J. and CARA, S. (2001) China's accession to the WTO: what is at stake for agricultural markets? Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Working Paper 01-WP 276, Iowa State University.
ISHIDA, T., ISHIKAWA, N. and FUKUSHIGE, M. (2010) Impact of BSE and bird flu on consumers' meat demand in Japan. Applied Economics 42: 49-56.
JAIN, T. (2007) Microeconomics and Basic Mathematics (New Delhi, VK Publications).
MYLES, A., HOOD, K. and ALLEN, A. (2009) Potential economic effects of avian influenza on the poultry industry in Mississippi. Journal of Food Distribution Research 40: 139-143.
NORSE, D., LU, Y. and HUANG, J. (2014) China's food security: is it a national, regional or global issue?, in: BROWN, K. (Ed) China and the EU in context, pp. 251-302 (London, Palgrave Macmillan Publishers).
OIE (2015) Avian influenza portal, World Organisation for Animal Health. Internet site: (Accessed 4th June 2016).
PARK, M., JIN, Y. and BESSLER, D. (2008) The impacts of animal disease crises on the Korean meat market. Agricultural Economics 39: 183-195.
PARRLBERG, P., SEITZINGER, A. and LEE, J.G. (2007) Economic impacts of regionalisation of a highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreak in the United States. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 39: 325-333.
PAARLBERG, P., SEITZINGER, A. and LEE, J. (2008) Economic impacts of foreign animal disease, United States Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service (Washington, USDA Press).
RUSHTON, J., VISCARRA, R., BLEICHE, E.G. and McLeod, A. (2005) Impact of avian influenza outbreaks in the poultry sectors of five South East Asian countries (Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Thailand, Viet Nam) outbreak costs, responses and potential long term control. World's Poultry Science Journal 61: 491-514.
SAATKAMP, H.W., MOURISTS, M.C.M. and HOWE, K.S. (2016) A framework for categorisation of the economic impacts or highly contagious livestock diseases. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases 63: 422-434.
SIMON, M. (2003) Global advances in poultry disease research, World Poultry 7: 6-11.
SHOU YI GONG BAO (2014) Internet data base. Available at: (Accessed 10th February 2016).
TAHA, F.A. (2007) How highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) has affected world poultry-meat trade, United States Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service Report, LDP-M-159-02.USDA (Washington, USDA Press).
YOU, L. and DIAO, X. (2007) Assessing the potential impact of avian influenza on poultry in West Africa: a spatial equilibrium analysis. Journal of Agricultural Economics 58: 348-367.



Full text views

Total number of HTML views: 0
Total number of PDF views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

Abstract views

Total abstract views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between <date>. This data will be updated every 24 hours.

Usage data cannot currently be displayed