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Pediatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU) resources are overwhelmed in disaster as the need to accommodate influx of critically-ill children is increased. A full-scale chlorine overexposure exercise was conducted by the New York Institute for All Hazard Preparedness (NYIAHP) to assess the appropriateness of response of Kings County Hospital Center's (KCHC's) PICU surge plan to an influx of critically-ill children. The primary endpoint that was assessed was the ability of the institution to follow the PICU surge plan, while secondary endpoints include the ability to provide appropriate medical management.
Methods
Thirty-six actors/patients (medical students or emergency medicine residents) were educated on presentations and appropriate medical management of patients after a chlorine overexposure, as well as lectures on drill design and expected PICU surge response. Victims presented to the hospital after simulated accidental chlorine overexposure at a public pool. Twenty-two patients with 14 family members needed evaluation; nine of these patients would require PICU admission. Three of nine PICU patients were low-fidelity mannequins. In addition to the 36 actor/patient evaluators, each area had two to four expert evaluators (disaster preparedness experts) to assess appropriateness of global response. Patients were expected to receive standard of care. Appropriateness of medical decisions and treatment was assessed retrospectively with review of electronic medical record.
Results
The initial PICU census was three of seven; two of these patients were transferred to the general ward. Of the nine patients that required Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission, six actor/patients were admitted to the PICU, one was admitted to the Surgical Intensive Care Unit (SICU), one went to the Operating Room (OR), and one was admitted to a monitored-surge general pediatric bed. The remaining 13 actor/patients were treated and released. Medical, nursing, and respiratory staffing in the PICU and the general ward were increased by two main mechanisms (extension of work hours and in-house recruitment of additional staff). Emergency Department (ED) staffing was artificially increased prior to the drill. With the exception of ocular fluid pH testing in patients with ocular pruritus, all necessary treatments were given; however, an unneeded albuterol treatment was administered to one patient. Chart review showed adequate discharge instructions in four of 13 patients. Nine patients without respiratory complaints in the ED were not instructed to observe for dyspnea. All patients were in the PICU or alternate locations within 90 minutes.
Discussion
The staff was well versed in the major details of KCHC's PICU surge plan, which allowed smooth transition of patient care from the ED to the PICU. The plan provided for a roadmap to achieve adequate medical, nursing, and respiratory therapists. Medical therapy was appropriate in the PICU; however, in the ED, patients with ocular complaints did not receive optimal care. In addition, written discharge instruction and educational material regarding chlorine overexposure to all patients were not consistently provided. The PICU surge plan was immediately accessible through the KCHC intranet; however, not all participants were cognizant of this fact; this decreased the efficiency with which the roadmap was followed. An exaggerated ED staff facilitated evaluation and transfer of patients.
Conclusion
During disasters, the ability to surge is paramount and each hospital addresses it differently. Hospitals and departments have written surge plans, but there is no literature available which assesses the validity of said plans through a rigorous, structured, simulated disaster drill. This study is the first to assess validity and effectiveness of a hospital's PICU surge plan. Overall, the KCHC PICU surge plan was effective; however, several deficiencies (mainly in communication and patient education in the ED) were identified, and this will improve future response.
ShahVS, PierceLC, RoblinP, WalkerS, SergioMN, ArquillaB. Waterworks, a Full-Scale Chemical Exposure Exercise: Interrogating Pediatric Critical Care Surge Capacity in an Inner-City Tertiary Care Medical Center. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2014;29(1):1-7.
Individuals with chronic conditions often experience exacerbation of those conditions and have specialized medical needs after a disaster. Less is known about the level of disaster preparedness of this particular population and the extent to which being prepared might have an impact on the risk of disease exacerbation. The purpose of this study was to examine the association between self-reported asthma, cardiovascular disease, and diabetes and levels of household disaster preparedness.
Methods
Data were analyzed from 14 US states participating in the 2006-2010 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), a large state-based telephone survey. Chi-square statistics and adjusted prevalence ratios were calculated.
Results
After adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics, as compared to those without each condition, persons with cardiovascular disease (aPR = 1.09; 95% CI, 1.01-1.17) and diabetes (aPR = 1.13; 95% CI, 1.05-1.22) were slightly more likely to have an evacuation plan and individuals with diabetes (aPR = 1.04; 95% CI, 1.02-1.05) and asthma (aPR = 1.02; 95% CI, 1.01-1.04) were slightly more likely to have a 3-day supply of prescription medication. There were no statistically significant differences in the prevalence for all other preparedness measures (3-day supply of food and water, working radio and flashlight, willingness to leave during a mandatory evacuation) between those with and those without each chronic condition.
Conclusion
Despite the increased morbidity and mortality associated with chronic conditions, persons with diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and asthma were generally not more prepared for natural or man-made disasters than those without each chronic condition.
KoJY, StrineTW, AllweissP. Chronic Conditions and Household Preparedness for Public Health Emergencies: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, 2006-2010. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2014;29(1):1-8.
Diabetes mellitus, although a chronic disease, also can cause acute, sudden symptoms requiring emergency intervention. In these cases, Emergency Medical Dispatchers (EMDs) must identify true diabetic complaints in order to determine the correct care. In 911 systems utilizing the Medical Priority Dispatch System (MPDS), International Academies of Emergency Dispatch-certified EMDs determine a patient's chief complaint by matching the caller's response to an initial pre-scripted question to one of 37 possible chief complaints protocols. The ability of EMDs to identify true diabetic-triggered events reported through 911 has not been studied.
Objective
The primary objective of this study was to determine the percentage of EMD-recorded patient cases (using the Diabetic Problems protocol in the MPDS) that were confirmed by either attending paramedics or the hospital as experiencing a diabetic-triggered event.
Methods
This was a retrospective study involving six hospitals, one fire department, and one ambulance service in Salt Lake City, Utah USA. Dispatch data for one year recorded under the Diabetic Problems protocol, along with the associated paramedic and hospital outcome data, were reviewed/analyzed. The outcome measures were: the percentage of cases that had diabetic history, percentage of EMD-identified diabetic problems cases that were confirmed by Emergency Medical Services (EMS) and/or hospital records as true diabetic-triggered events, and percentage of EMD-identified diabetic patients who also had other medical conditions. A diabetic-triggered event was defined as one in which the patient's emergency was directly caused by diabetes or its medical management. Descriptive statistics were used for categorical measures and parametric statistical methods assessed the differences between study groups, for continuous measures.
Results
Three-hundred ninety-three patient cases were assigned to the Diabetic Problems Chief Complaint protocol. Of the 367 (93.4%) patients who had a documented history of diabetes, 279 (76%) were determined to have had a diabetic-triggered event. However, only 12 (3.6%) initially assigned to this protocol did not have a confirmed history of diabetes.
Conclusions
Using the MPDS to select the Diabetic Problems Chief Complaint protocol, the EMDs correctly identified a true diabetic-triggered event the majority of the time. However, many patients had other medical conditions, which complicated the initial classification of true diabetic-triggered events. Future studies should examine the associations between the five specific Diabetic Problems Chief Complaint protocol determinant codes (triage priority levels) and severity measures, eg, blood sugar level and Glasgow Coma Score.
ClawsonJ, ScottG, LloydW, PattersonB, BarronT, GardettI, OlolaC. Outcome Accuracy of the Emergency Medical Dispatcher's Initial Selection of a Diabetic Problems Protocol. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2013:28(6):1-6.
US Navy hospital ships are used as a foreign policy instrument to achieve various objectives that include building partnerships. Despite substantial resource investment by the Department of Defense (DoD) in these missions, their impact is unclear. The purpose of this study was to understand how and why hospital ship missions influence partnerships among the different participants.
Methods
An embedded case study was used and included the hospital ship Mercy's mission to Timor-Leste in 2008 and 2010 with four units of analysis: the US government, partner nation, host nation, and nongovernmental organizations. Key stakeholders representing each unit were interviewed using open-ended questions that explored the experiences of each participant and their organization. Findings were analyzed using a priori domains from a proposed partnership theoretical framework. A documentary review of key policy, guidance, and planning documents was also conducted.
Results
Fifteen themes related to how and why hospital ship missions influence partnerships emerged from the 37 interviews and documentary review. The five most prominent included: developing relationships, developing new perspectives, sharing resources, understanding partner constraints, and developing credibility. Facilitators to joining the mission included partner nations seeking a regional presence and senior executive relationships. Enablers included historical relationships and host nation receptivity. The primary barrier to joining was the military leading the mission. Internal constraints included the short mission duration, participant resentment, and lack of personnel continuity. External constraints included low host nation and United States Agency for International Development (USAID) capacity.
Conclusion
The research finds the idea of building partnerships exists among most units of analysis. However, the results show a delay in downstream effects of generating action and impact among the participants. Without a common partnership definition and policy, guidance, and planning documents reinforcing these constructs, achieving the partnership goal will remain challenging. Efforts should be made to magnify the facilitators and enablers while developing mitigation strategies for the barriers and constraints. This is the first study to scientifically assess the partnership impact of hospital ship missions and could support the DoD's effort to establish, enable, and sustain meaningful partnerships. Application of the findings to improve partnerships in contexts beyond hospital ship missions may be warranted and require further analysis. This unique opportunity could bridge the rift with humanitarian actors and establish, enable, and sustain meaningful partnerships with the DoD.
LicinaD, MookherjiS, MigliaccioG, RingerC. Hospital Ships Adrift? Part 2: The Role of US Navy Hospital Ship Humanitarian Assistance Missions in Building Partnerships. Prehosp Disaster Med.2013;28(6):592-604.
The 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake caused major disruptions in the provision of health care, including that for patients with sleep-disordered breathing (SDB) using a nasal continuous positive airway pressure (nCPAP) device. This study investigated the ability of SDB patients to continue using the nCPAP device in the weeks immediately following the earthquake, whether inability to use the nCPAP device led to symptom relapse, and measures that should be taken to prevent disruptions in nCPAP therapy during future disasters.
Hypothesis
If nCPAP devices cannot be used during disasters, SDB patients’ health will be affected negatively.
Methods
Within 14 days of the disaster, 1,047 SDB patients completed a questionnaire that collected data regarding ability to use, duration of inability to use, and reasons for inability to use the nCPAP device; symptom relapse while unable to use the nCPAP device; ability to use the nCPAP device use at evacuation sites; and recommendations for improvement of the nCPAP device.
Results
Of the 1,047 patients, 966 (92.3%) had been unable to use the nCPAP device in the days immediately following the earthquake. The most common reason for inability to use the nCPAP device was power failure, followed by anxiety about sleeping at night due to fear of aftershocks, involvement in disaster-relief activities, loss of the nasal CPAP device, and fear of being unable to wake up in case of an emergency. Among the 966 patients, 242 (25.1%) had experienced relapse of symptoms, the most common of which was excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS), followed by insomnia, headache, irritability, and chest pain.
Conclusion
Developing strategies for the continuation of nCPAP therapy during disasters is important for providing healthy sleeping environments for SDB patients in emergency situations.
MitoF, NishijimaT, SakuraiS, KizawaT, HosokawaK, TakahashiS, SuwabeA, AkasakaH, KobayashiS. Effects of CPAP Treatment Interruption Due to Disasters: Patients with Sleep-disordered Breathing in the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami Area. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2013;28(6):547-555.
LevettJ. From Cradle of European Civilization to Grave Austerity: Does Greece Face a Creeping Health Disaster?Prehosp Disaster Med. 2013;28(6):1-2.
While the global financial crisis started on the American continent, Greece has felt the biggest shock. As a result of government-imposed austerity measures following the implementation of the Memorandum of Understanding,* population health and the health sector have been impacted. This adds a burden to the national health system (NHS), already facing compromised efficiency and effectiveness. Cuts in health and social protection budgets are an additional exacerbation. These events have precipitated serious discussion, variable opinions, and related activity, but there is limited research on the public health impact of austerity.1 In 2011, I suggested that the Memorandum could be damaging to health and that there is a creeping health disaster2 while Kentikelenis referred to the omens of disaster.3 If austerity was tested like a medication in a clinical trial, it would have been stopped long ago, given its deadly side effects, according to Stuckler and Basu.4 According to Blyth, austerity is a dangerous idea.5 In terms of the Utstein template,6–8 austerity is designated a health hazard, which can be exacerbated when national governance is weak.9 The outcome is a creeping disaster of uncertain dynamics.†
Evacuation of the World Trade Center (WTC) twin towers and surrounding buildings damaged in the September 11, 2001 attacks provides a unique opportunity to study factors that affect emergency evacuation of high rise buildings.
Problem
The goal of this study is to understand the extent to which structural and behavioral barriers and limitations of personal mobility affected evacuation by occupants of affected buildings on September 11, 2001.
Methods
This analysis included 5,023 civilian, adult enrollees within the World Trade Center Health Registry who evacuated the two World Trade Center towers and over 30 other Lower Manhattan buildings that were damaged or destroyed on September 11, 2001. Multinomial logistic regression was used to predict total evacuation time (<30 to ≤60 minutes, >1 hour to <2 hours relative to ≤30 minutes) in relation to number of infrastructure barriers and number of behavioral barriers, adjusted for demographic and other factors.
Results
A higher percentage of evacuees reported encountering at least one behavioral barrier (84.9%) than reported at least one infrastructure barrier (51.9%). This pattern was consistent in all buildings except WTC 1, the first building attacked, where >90% of evacuees reported encountering both types of barriers. Smoke and poor lighting were the most frequently-reported structural barriers. Extreme crowding, lack of communication with officials, and being surrounded by panicked crowds were the most frequently-reported behavioral barriers. Multivariate analyses showed evacuation time to be independently associated with the number of each type of barrier as well as gender (longer times for women), but not with the floor from which evacuation began. After adjustment, personal mobility impairment was not associated with increased evacuation time.
Conclusion
Because most high-rise buildings have unique designs, infrastructure factors tend to be less predictable than behavioral factors, but both need to be considered in developing emergency evacuation plans in order to decrease evacuation time and, consequently, risk of injury and death during an emergency evacuation.
GroegerJL, StellmanSD, KravittA, BrackbillRM. Evacuating Damaged and Destroyed Buildings on 9/11: Behavioral and Structural Barriers. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2013;28(6):1-11.
Major adverse climatic events (MACEs) in heavily-populated areas can inflict severe damage to infrastructure, disrupting essential municipal and commercial services. Compromised health care delivery systems and limited utilities such as electricity, heating, potable water, sanitation, and housing, place populations in disaster areas at risk of toxic exposures. Hurricane Sandy made landfall on October 29, 2012 and caused severe infrastructure damage in heavily-populated areas. The prolonged electrical outage and damage to oil refineries caused a gasoline shortage and rationing unseen in the USA since the 1970s. This study explored gasoline exposures and clinical outcomes in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy.
Methods
Prospectively collected, regional poison control center (PCC) data regarding gasoline exposure cases from October 29, 2012 (hurricane landfall) through November 28, 2012 were reviewed and compared to the previous four years. The trends of gasoline exposures, exposure type, severity of clinical outcome, and hospital referral rates were assessed.
Results
Two-hundred and eighty-three gasoline exposures were identified, representing an 18 to 283-fold increase over the previous four years. The leading exposure route was siphoning (53.4%). Men comprised 83.0% of exposures; 91.9% were older than 20 years of age. Of 273 home-based calls, 88.7% were managed on site. Asymptomatic exposures occurred in 61.5% of the cases. However, minor and moderate toxic effects occurred in 12.4% and 3.5% of cases, respectively. Gastrointestinal (24.4%) and pulmonary (8.4%) symptoms predominated. No major outcomes or deaths were reported.
Conclusions
Hurricane Sandy significantly increased gasoline exposures. While the majority of exposures were managed at home with minimum clinical toxicity, some patients experienced more severe symptoms. Disaster plans should incorporate public health messaging and regional PCCs for public health promotion and toxicological surveillance.
Inappropriate distribution of casualties in mass-casualty incidents (MCIs) may overwhelm hospitals. This study aimed to review the consequences of evacuating casualties from a bus accident to a single peripheral hospital and lessons learned regarding policy of casualty evacuation.
Methods
Medical records of all casualties relating to evacuation times, injury severity, diagnoses, treatments, resources utilized and outcomes were independently reviewed by two senior trauma surgeons. In addition, four senior trauma surgeons reviewed impact of treatment provided on patient outcomes. They reviewed the times for the primary and secondary evacuation, injury severity, diagnoses, surgical treatments, resources utilized, and the final outcomes of the patients at the point of discharge from the tertiary care hospital.
Results
Thirty-one survivors were transferred to the closest local hospital; four died en route to hospital or within 30 minutes of arrival. Twenty-seven casualties were evacuated by air from the local hospital within 2.5 to 6.15 hours to Level I and II hospitals. Undertriage of 15% and overtriage of seven percent were noted. Four casualties did not receive treatment that might have improved their condition at the local hospital.
Conclusions
In MCIs occurring in remote areas, policy makers should consider revising the current evacuation plan so that only immediate unstable casualties should be transferred to the closest primary hospital. On site Advanced Life Support (ALS) should be administered to non-severe casualties until they can be evacuated directly to tertiary care hospitals. First responders must be trained to provide ALS to non-severe casualties until evacuation resources are available.
AdiniB, CohenR, GlassbergE, AzariaB, SimonD, SteinM, KleinY, PelegK. Reconsidering Policy of Casualty Evacuation in a Remote Mass-Casualty Incident. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2013;28(6):1-5.
Educating emergency medical staffs in triage skills is an important aspect of disaster preparedness. The aim of the study was to compare the effect of role-playing and educational video presentation on the learning and performance of the emergency medical service staffs in Khozestan, Iran
Methods
A total of 144 emergency technicians were randomly classified into two groups. A researcher trained the first group using an educational video method and the second group with a role-playing method. Data were collected before, immediately, and 15 days after training using a questionnaire covering the three domains of demographic information, triage knowledge, and triage performance. The data were analyzed using defined knowledge and performance parameters.
Results
There was no significant difference between the two training methods on performance and immediate knowledge (P = .2), lasting knowledge (P=.05) and immediate performance (P = .35), but there was a statistical advantage for the role-playing method on lasting performance (P = .02).
Conclusion
The two educational methods equally increase knowledge and performance, but the role-playing method may have a more desirable and lasting effect on performance.
AghababaeianH, SedaghatS, TaheryN, Sadeghi MoghaddamA, ManieiM, BahramiN, Araghi AhvaziL. A Comparative Study of the Effect of Triage Training by Role-Playing and Educational Video on the Knowledge and Performance of Emergency Medical Service Staffs in Iran. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2013;28(6):1-5.
Severe sepsis and septic shock are common, expensive and often fatal medical problems. The care of the critically sick and injured often begins in the prehospital setting; there is limited data available related to predictors and interventions specific to sepsis in the prehospital arena. The objective of this study was to assess the predictive effect of physiologic elements commonly reported in the out-of-hospital setting in the outcomes of patients transported with sepsis.
Methods
This was a cross-sectional descriptive study. Data from the years 2004-2006 were collected. Adult cases (≥18 years of age) transported by Emergency Medical Services to a major academic center with the diagnosis of sepsis as defined by ICD-9-CM diagnostic codes were included. Descriptive statistics and standard deviations were used to present group characteristics. Chi-square was used for statistical significance and odds ratio (OR) to assess strength of association. Statistical significance was set at the .05 level. Physiologic variables studied included mean arterial pressure (MAP), heart rate (HR), respiratory rate (RR) and shock index (SI).
Results
Sixty-three (63) patients were included. Outcome variables included a mean hospital length of stay (HLOS) of 13.75 days (SD = 9.97), mean ventilator days of 4.93 (SD = 7.87), in-hospital mortality of 22 out of 63 (34.9%), and mean intensive care unit length-of-stay (ICU-LOS) of 7.02 days (SD = 7.98). Although SI and RR were found to predict intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, [OR 5.96 (CI, 1.49-25.78; P = .003) and OR 4.81 (CI, 1.16-21.01; P = .0116), respectively] none of the studied variables were found to predict mortality (MAP <65 mmHg: P = .39; HR >90: P = .60; RR >20 P = .11; SI >0.7 P = .35).
Conclusions
This study demonstrated that the out-of-hospital shock index and respiratory rate have high predictability for ICU admission. Further studies should include the development of an out-of-hospital sepsis score.
BaezAA, HanudelP, WilcoxSR. The Prehospital Sepsis Project: Out-of-Hospital Physiologic Predictors of Sepsis Outcomes. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2013;28(6):1-4.
This section of Prehospital and Disaster Medicine (PDM) presents reports and summaries of the 18th World Congress on Disaster and Emergency Medicine (WCDEM) held in Manchester, UK in May of 2013. Abstracts of Congress oral and poster presentations were published in May, 2013 as a supplement to PDM (Volume 28, Supplement 1).
Reports and Session Summaries of the 18th World Congress on Disaster and Emergency Medicine. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2013:28(6):1-7.
Research has shown that partnerships between public health agencies, service providers, and other key stakeholders can expand resources and facilitate focus on community health issues more effectively than can any agency or organization acting alone. There is, however, little empirical evidence drawn from actual public health emergency responses to support this claim. The US response to novel influenza A (H1N1) virus provided the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) the opportunity to explore whether, and the extent to which, state, local and territorial health departments strengthened partnerships with key partner agencies and sectors.
Methods
Participants included the CDC Public Health Emergency Response (PHER) grantees comprised of 62 state, territorial and local health departments. PHER grantees completed an assessment instrument in May 2011, including questions asking them to rate their partnership strength (on a four-point ordinal scale) with six types of partners before and after the H1N1 response. Grantees additionally reported if and how PHER funding contributed to enhancing the strength of these partnerships.
Results
Sixty-one PHER grantees (61/62, 98%) completed the assessment instrument's partnerships section. PHER grantees reported that their partnerships with retail pharmacies were most strengthened (mean increase = 1.11 (on a four-point ordinal scale), SD = .82). This was followed by schools (K-12) (mean increase = .90, SD = .58); private medical providers (mean increase = .81, SD = .68); immunization authorities (mean increase = .80, SD = .61); main education authorities (mean increase = .75, SD = .68); and businesses (mean increase = .74, SD = .61). Mean PHER grantee increases in the strength of each partner type were statistically significant for all partner types (P < .01). Grantees reported that PHER funding contributed to enhancing the strength of their partnerships with schools most frequently (46/46, 100%), and businesses least frequently (31/37, 83.8%).
Conclusions
This inquiry provides evidence that state, territorial, and local health department partnerships with key sectors, agencies, and programs were strengthened after the H1N1 response. It further demonstrates that the CDC's PHER funding contributed to the health departments’ reports of increased partnership strength.
KunK, ZimmermanJ, RoseD, RubelS. State, Territorial, and Local Health Departments’ Reporting of Partnership Strength Before and After the H1N1 Response. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2013;28(6):1-6.
Planned and organized long-term rehabilitation services should be provided to victims of a disaster for social integration, economic self-sufficiency, and psychological health. There are few studies on recovery and rehabilitation issues in disaster situations. This study explores the disaster-related rehabilitation process.
Method
This study was based on qualitative analysis. Participants included 18 individuals (eight male and ten female) with experience providing or receiving disaster health care or services. Participants were selected using purposeful sampling. Data were collected through in-depth and semi-structured interviews. All interviews were transcribed and content analysis was performed based on qualitative content analysis.
Results
The study explored three main concepts of recovery and rehabilitation after a disaster: 1) needs for health recovery; 2) intent to delegate responsibility; and 3) desire for a wide scope of social support. The participants of this study indicated that to provide comprehensive recovery services, important basic needs should be considered, including the need for physical rehabilitation, social rehabilitation, and livelihood health; the need for continuity of mental health care; and the need for family re-unification services. Providing social activation can help reintegrate affected people into the community.
Conclusion
Effective rehabilitation care for disaster victims requires a clear definition of the rehabilitation process at different levels of the community. Involving a wide set of those most likely to be affected by the process provides a comprehensive, continuous, culturally sensitive, and family-centered plan.
KhankehH, NakhaeiM, MasoumiG, HosseiniM, Parsa-YektaZ, KurlandL, CastrenM. Life Recovery After Disasters: A Qualitative Study in the Iranian Context. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2013;28(6):573-579.
Large earthquakes can cause population displacement, critical sanitation infrastructure damage, and increased threats to water resources, potentially predisposing populations to waterborne disease epidemics such as cholera.
Problem
The risk of cholera outbreaks after earthquake disasters remains uncertain. A cross-country analysis of World Health Organization (WHO) cholera data that would contribute to this discussion has yet to be published.
Methods
A cross-country longitudinal analysis was conducted among 63 low- and middle-income countries from 1995-2009. The association between earthquake disasters of various effect sizes and a relative spike in cholera rates for a given country was assessed utilizing fixed-effects logistic regression and adjusting for gross domestic product per capita, water and sanitation level, flooding events, percent urbanization, and under-five child mortality. Also, the association between large earthquakes and cholera rate increases of various degrees was assessed.
Results
Forty-eight of the 63 countries had at least one year with reported cholera infections during the 15-year study period. Thirty-six of these 48 countries had at least one earthquake disaster. In adjusted analyses, country-years with ≥10,000 persons affected by an earthquake had 2.26 times increased odds (95 CI, 0.89-5.72, P = .08) of having a greater than average cholera rate that year compared to country-years having <10,000 individuals affected by an earthquake. The association between large earthquake disasters and cholera infections appeared to weaken as higher levels of cholera rate increases were tested.
Conclusion
A trend of increased risk of greater than average cholera rates when more people were affected by an earthquake in a country-year was noted. However these findings did not reach statistical significance at traditional levels and may be due to chance. Frequent large-scale cholera outbreaks after earthquake disasters appeared to be relatively uncommon.
SumnerS, TurnerE, ThielmanN. Association Between Earthquake Events and Cholera Outbreaks: A Cross-country 15-year Longitudinal Analysis. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2013;28(6):1-6.