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Confidence in Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  15 November 2023

Luca Zanetti Open the ORCID record for Luca Zanetti [Opens in a new window]
Luca Zanetti*
Affiliation:
Department of Humanities and Life Sciences (SUV), Scuola Universitaria Superiore IUSS Pavia, Pavia, Italy
*
Email: luca.zanetti@iusspavia.it
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Abstract

Epistemic uncertainties are included in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) as second-order probabilities that represent the degrees of belief of the scientists that a model is correct. In this article, I propose an alternative approach that incorporates the scientist’s confidence in a probability set for a given quantity. First, I give some arguments against the use of precise probabilities to estimate scientific uncertainty in risk analysis. I then extend the “confidence approach” developed by Brian Hill and Richard Bradley to PRA. Finally, I claim that this approach represents model uncertainty better than the standard (Bayesian) model does.

Type
Article
Information
Philosophy of Science , First View , pp. 1 - 19
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2023. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the Philosophy of Science Association

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